Coursework 2: The Future of the Industry 2020 and Beyond - TfL

This report provides a comprehensive analysis of the future of the transport industry, with a specific focus on Transport for London (TfL). It examines the transformative changes expected by 2020 and beyond, including the impact of digital technologies, smart mobility services, and automation. The report explores key trends such as user-centered mobility, intelligent transport networks, and the evolution of payments and pricing. It also addresses the importance of safety, automation, and public-private innovation. The analysis includes a process view of innovation, outlining strategy and resource considerations. The report also highlights TfL's strengths and discusses its innovation requirements and future capabilities, including the adoption of autonomous vehicles, app-based services, and drone technology. Overall, the report offers insights into the challenges and opportunities facing the transport industry, emphasizing the need for strategic decisions and innovative approaches to meet future demands.

COURSEWORK 2: The Future of the Industry 2020 and beyond
Student Name:
Student ID:
Date: 12 June 2019
Page 1 of 23

Executive Summary
Change is taking place in transportation, whether we are ready to accept it or not. One
can easily view in the public sector investment taking place in intelligent streets as well as
digital railways, and even automakers are emphasising over the next generation vehicles as
well as smart mobility services in the widen identification that in the world of information
utterly create disrupt in status quo of transportation.
The digital age has started, and the technology has come up with smartphones, open
traffic information, real-time planning, as well as social customer service. In all these years,
it’s the first time; the passengers can now attain information as compared to operators. The
fundamental shift provides the consumers with actual choices that are relied on over the
alternative picture routes, present network status and comparative pricing. As the transport
operators are adapting with the arrival of new entrants, the models of new business will try to
transform the user information, integration, payments and automation. The changes will
create the five trends of disruption in smart mobility services and transportation.
User-centred mobility services will place the travellers in control, this type of change the
approach towards planning and operations rely on user choices, the flow of data, priorities,
and dynamic response towards disruption.
An intelligent and integrated network of transport will sense the demands and will try to
measure the performance and monitor the physical assets.
Payments and pricing- the revolution will come in the coming few years. Tickets digitisation
and payment will try to transform the metro services and permit the transport operators to
adopt the e-tickets.
Page 2 of 23

Safety and automation- it will gain benefit through the exponential cognitive technology
potential to save the life of millions all over the world, especially on roads.
Private and public innovation- it will try to fulfil the challenges of mobility in the 21st
century. The public sector role will be important in stimulating the advances and saving the
citizens.
Page 3 of 23

Table of Contents
Executive Summary...................................................................................................................2
Introduction................................................................................................................................5
The Future of the Industry 2020 and beyond.............................................................................5
The Organisations Innovation Requirements 2020 and Beyond................................................8
Explanation - A Process View of Innovation...........................................................................10
Building Future Innovation Capabilities for the Organisation.................................................12
Conclusion................................................................................................................................19
References................................................................................................................................21
Page 4 of 23

Introduction
There exist no doubt that by 2020, manufacturing taking place in all the industries
will make an investment of billions of dollars in the vast range of advanced fabrication and
digital technologies (Christensen, Raynor and McDonald, 2015). It includes the 3D Nano-
manufacturing and printing technology, along with the new capabilities, which are ushered
through the massive use of Internet-connected analytics and sensors. Decisions are taken over
where the next place to invest, will rely on the leadership objectives and priorities that are
highly subject towards the market forecasts and conditions. Each new equipment of capital
investment is highly subject towards the cost/benefit analysis (Christensen, Raynor and
McDonald, 2015). The analysis outcome and the decision timing is variant in every industry,
factory or organisations.
This report will discuss the future of the industry in 2020 and beyond it. The report
will consider Transport for London (TfL) for analysing the future of the transport industry.
This report will also explain the innovation requirements of the industry and future
innovation capabilities of TfL.
The Future of the Industry 2020 and beyond
Future of Transport for London (TfL)
The international transport industry is going to enter in the era of enormous range as
well as transformative changes, as the sales will get shifted and the environmental regulations
will get tighten up. The organisations who are interested in becoming successful in the long
run will require to achieve critical strategic decisions in the coming decade (Christensen,
Raynor and McDonald, 2015).
Page 5 of 23

In the context of the powertrains trend, the main problem is related with the rate
through which the conventional power vehicles will most likely to get replaced through the
complete battery electric, hybrid as well as fuel cell buses. Information collected through the
IGS recommends that by 2020, there will be a shift towards the hybrid vehicles, though, it is
expected that complete electric vehicles will not be necessary in the market inroads till late
2020 (Christensen, Raynor and McDonald, 2015). Few starting as well as optimistic pure
electric vehicle projections are not realised, but in 2008/09, there is a forecast that there will
be around 1 million vehicles in the UK by 2020. Currently, there are approximately 300,000
plugin hybrid and electric vehicles on UK roads. The vital stimulus of the market, by the
regulatory needs and financial incentives, is required. Due to the lack of these types of
incentives, the pure-electric vehicle adoption is expected to become modest. It is noted that
UK government assist in the plugin vehicle sale by early 2016, but in case it doesn’t get
renewed then there will be minimisation in the sale of the plugin vehicle (Christensen,
Raynor and McDonald, 2015).
They are referring to the instances of the enormous changes that might take place in
the arena of transport. The driven and privately-owned cars future is not absolute, because
there are many youngsters, who are failing their driving test and car-hailing, as well as car
clubs schemes, are becoming part of the day to day life (International Transport Forum [ITF],
2016). In place of this, electric cars are gaining popularity and also consider global warming
as the priority by the car manufacturers and public authorities. In the meantime, many
autonomous vehicles are making rapid strides. Looking into the future, the engineers located
in the America west coast areas on working over the Hyperloop, which is the high-speed
system of transport including capsule shooting as well as enclosed tubes, which promise to
reduce the time of journey- for example, 380 miles are shortened to 43 minutes, and these
Page 6 of 23

vehicles are technologically straightforward to be manufactured (Kamargianni, Matyas, Li
and Schäfer, 2015).
Importantly, it is noted that Transport for London will increase their mobility services.
The company will take the initiative to build the car seats, which can easily monitor the blood
pressure and heart rate, in order to respond towards the health issues, in the sign of fatigue
faced by driver; it will also include “fit and healthy” services near to the diagnostics, which is
available on board. TfL is also planning to build the platforms, which will include offerings
around the cars, by permitting for the internet service providers to provide the groceries
directly for the car boot or the wash cars (Kamargianni, Matyas, Li and Schäfer, 2015). It is
true that as the excitement is high and investment is getting pour, even if all these services
presently include red ink to show off for their services. There is indeed no way to dispute
such mobility by the diverse customers, technology, suppliers as well as start-ups in the
dynamic as well as exciting ecosystems.
In the coming few years, there will be buses and autonomous trucks that wouldn’t get
commercialised before the year2 050. According to a few studies, it is forecasted that there
will be no commercialisation till the year 2030 (Kamargianni, Matyas, Li and Schäfer, 2015).
Advancement in the manufacturing industry will result because of a shortage of drivers,
accidents and high rate of wages at the time of long haul journeys. These are a few factors
that can quickly try to accelerate autonomous commercial vehicle development. Other factors
like rising in the efficiency standards of fuel, rise in the traffic congestion, stringent norms of
emissions, road accidents and updating in the AI technologies will be most likely to boost the
bus platooning in market. It is noted that Bus platooning can come up as the highly effective
solutions for high wages as well as driver shortage (Kamargianni, Matyas, Li and Schäfer,
2015).
Page 7 of 23

The Organisations Innovation Requirements 2020 and Beyond
The digital influence is bringing change in consumer experience in the transportation
industry and is establishing the expectation to alter the transport services demand in
Transport for London (TfL). In various other industries, like retail, media and marketing,
changes in technology have to lead to well-setup businesses. In the case of transport, the
innovation in speed and disruption threats might get differ (Lawrence, Taylor and Green,
2015). One can already view the significant changes taken place in hotels, airlines and travel
organizations. The public transportation and automotive sectors will be most likely to see the
effect by 2020. While the operators of public transport might not feel the threats, still there
are compelling cases that can integrate the services to empower the travellers and provide
them with great choices (Lawrence, Taylor and Green, 2015).
The digital adoption also initiates the operators towards delivering the services
efficiently and safely, and through the high automation as well as intelligent networks. Metro
services or bus services, ticket changes along with user information, will bring transformation
in customer relationship.
Page 8 of 23

The transportation industry or TfL will gear up for bringing the dramatic shift in the
automation and ownership of all the personal vehicles. The technology of connected cars has
already come, and the high use of intelligent management of traffic will bring the automotive
manufacturers and the one who is highly accountable for the road networks for exploring the
innovative and new solutions for urban environment smart mobility (Lawrence, Taylor and
Green, 2015).
It is initiating the smart mobility- in case of transport industry or TfL that might face
the disruptive trends that will offer the framework for enabling the user-centred, smart
mobility. Payments and pricing, safety and automation, and private and public innovation.
All these trends or themes can be implemented in the air, road and rail transport. The
central vision is to avail the benefits between various trends, which can seamlessly foster the
integration among various modes of transport to attain the smart mobility and enhance the
individual travel experience (Lawrence, Taylor and Green, 2015).
Page 9 of 23

Explanation - A Process View of Innovation
STRATEGY
1. For the future of transport for London (TfL), the company has formed the transport
committee, which emphasises the technological changes in three different, but highly
closed associated regions. The committed try to learn about how the Mayor and TfL
effectively monitor as well as plan for the new technology emergence in the
transportation sector:
2. Autonomous and connected vehicles (CAVs) - It’s also known as the driverless cars.
The CAV launch to the roads is considered as the highest change in the manner; one
makes use of cars, which is the highly prevalent method of transport used by the
people of London (London Assembly Environment Committee [LAEC], 2014).
3. App-based services- it is analysed that Londoners are highly empowered through the
increase in the use of smartphone technology through the apps, which can deliver the
information in different ways and also enable the new transportation ways to be
offered at colossal scale.
Page 10 of 23

4. Drones- in the area, the airborne drones will be used for variant purposes in the
coming years for the use of freight delivery; and these droids will be programmed
appropriately for the purpose of transportation the hoods, as well as pavements and
various other pedestrian spaces (Transport for London [TfL], 2015).
RESOURCES
Strength
Transport for London (TfL) provides its services in approximately 270 stations. It
holds the second largest system of metro all over the world in the context of route miles, just
next to the Shanghai metro. The biggest strength of TfL exists in offering the daily ridership
to around 3 million people. It’s also hold the third busiest system of metro in Europe, Paris
and Moscow, and it’s also one of the largest networks of the metro, including 400 km of track
(Transport for London [TfL], 2015).
In connection with the findings from elsewhere, the highly perceived TfL strength in the
current year is the bus investment and network. Its other strength includes the highly
impressive management of TfL and the transport network integration (Transport for London
[TfL], 2015). In general, terms, considering the system of integrated transport, such as
London running, is TfL strength. Right management of the transports system in London is
mentioned to be nearby journalist quarter of 23%, where else one out of five consider the
integrated network as their major strength (Transport for London [TfL], 2015).
Capabilities
1. Application of manual, automated planning, map-based planning as well as dynamic
functions of re-planning.
2. Construct the pallets with the rule-based and flexible optimisation
Page 11 of 23

3. Visualised the vehicle, which is load planning space as well as loading.
4. Managing and tracking the driver resources through the interactive cockpit default
assignments.
5. Automate the updating in the struck truck details and freight documents.
6. It initiates the management of capacity monitoring and tracking through the management
of real-time events (Transport for London [TfL], 2016).
7. Interact with the business partners by applying the tools of collaboration.
8. Provide the comprehensive leverage templates for air, road and rail carriers.
Building Future Innovation Capabilities for the Organisation
Engagement with stakeholders
TfL has taken different initiatives to communicate or get engaged with the
stakeholders. In the year 2015, the company has various “hackathons” in relation to various
London universities to view how the information could be managed appropriately with the
network of the road in an efficient manner. Later on, hackathons were again planned in the
year 2016.
The website of TfL also makes use of a blog for posting the updates and for
requesting the feedback through the users of information and for explaining the initiative of
open data, which can be sent through the portal of API. TfL was able to launch the public
consultation in the year 2014 to assist in developing the transparency approach (Beevers,
Carslaw, Dajnak, Stewart, Williams, Fussell and Kelly, 2016). Both the stakeholders and
customers were asked to given their perceptions over the data usage as well as its
presentation. Responses collected were used for the purpose of formulating the strategy of
Page 12 of 23