PPMP20014: Complexity Assessment of Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam

This discussion forum post analyzes the complexity of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) project using a radar diagram approach, based on readings from PPMP20014 Complex Project Management. It identifies structural, technical, directional, temporal, cost, schedule, contextual and financing factors contributing to the project's complexity. The assessment reveals high levels of structural and contextual complexity due to the involvement of multiple international stakeholders and disagreements over water sharing. The post concludes that Ethiopia should prioritize negotiations to address concerns and share benefits with neighboring countries. The assignment references academic articles and online resources to support its analysis and provides a complexity level identification which is very fruitful for any project because it can provide the information regarding the direction of effort which should be provided by the project team to reduce the level of complexity.

PPMP20014
4th Discussion Forum
Name of University
ID of Student
Name of Student
Date: 12th January 2019

PPMP20014 (4th Discussion Forum): GERD Page 2 of 7
Table of Contents
Introduction to the Case Study..............................................................................3
Discussion on Project Complexity with radar diagram............................3
Conclusion from the discussion.............................................................................5
References..........................................................................................................................6

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Introduction to the Case Study
The case study project is the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam which is
constructed in Ethiopia nearer to the border of Sudan that will be used to define the level of
complexity with the help of a radar diagram. The dam is constructed on the Blue Nile river
which is flowing from Ethiopia and going to Egypt through Sudan before getting mixed with
the sea water (Taye, Tadesse, Senay, & Block, 2016). Ethiopia is at the upstream side, and
Egypt is at the downstream side. A large dam of around 110 metre height is built at the
downstream side of Egypt which helps in developing agriculture and hydropower electric
current of 2100 megawatt (MW) of power (Whittington, 2016). Because of the construction
of GERD, various kinds of complexity level will get increased related to the international
water body of the Blue Nile river that can increase the level of complexity of the project.
Discussion on Project Complexity with radar
diagram
Project can have various categories of complexity such as the structural complexity
that can get increased due to the increase in the level of interconnections and
interdependencies between various stakeholders like it is present in the case study project
(Remington & Pollack, 2011). For the construction of the GERD, it is not only the execution
contractor and the people of Ethiopia are involved, whereas, the people of Egypt and the
people of Sudan are also equally involved because by the construction of this Dam, it will
heavily impact these three countries and their water sharing proportions. The Other category
of complexity that is the directional complexity is also present in this project because of the
disagreement of constructing the dam in Ethiopia by different African countries has raised the
changes in the project objective very frequently. Moreover, the technical dimension of
complexity is also present because the dam is having a height of 145 metres and is going to
be built in an area where the chances of soil sedimentation is very high and so the site is not
technically feasible and there are various other unknown factors regarding the efficiency
which will add to the level of complexity (International Rivers, 2017). The temporal level of
complexity is also present due to the uncertainty of water sharing proportions present
between various African countries those are dependent on the water source from the Blue
Nile river.
It is found in the article that there are 5 categories of complexity that should be
analysed to find the level of complexity present in a project. The five factors are the financial

PPMP20014 (4th Discussion Forum): GERD Page 4 of 7
factors that are related to this project are present because of the unavailability of the funding
arrangement by Ethiopia due to the non-agreement between various African countries
(Gransberg, Shane, Strong, & Puerto, 2013). The contextual factor is also involved in the
project due to the involvement of the various International countries in favour of and against
the development of the large size dam on the upstream of the Blue Nile river. The schedule
factor is always present because of the size of the Dam and the uncertainty present in the
project. The cost factor is present because the finances were not being made available by
Ethiopia and the scope of the project was also getting increased due to various technical
reasons. The technical factor of complexity was also present due to the level of complexity of
the area and its geological characteristic which does not permit the construction of dam at the
location where it was initiated to be constructed near the border of Sudan and Ethiopia.
For developing the radar diagram and understand the level of complexity present in a
project, the level of complexity has been divided into three major categories ranging between
0 to 3 as a low level of complexity, 4 to 6 as a medium level of complexity, and 7 to 9 as the
high level of complexity as shown in the article (Dao, Kermanshachi, Shane, & Anderson,
2016). The radar diagram is developed by using the Microsoft Excel (Computergaga, 2017)
and incorporating the below present complexity indicator against each categories of
complexity.

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Figure: Radar Diagram of GERD level of Project Complexity
Source: by Author
To understand the rational of developing the above-shown radar diagram, the below tabular
presentation of the justification against the complexity level indicator is provided.
Complexity
Factor
Complexity
Level Elaboration
Structural
Complexity 8.5
High level of complexity due to the presence of
multiple levels of interconnections and
interdependencies
Technical
Complexity 4 Medium complexity because of the geological
condition of the area
Directional
Complexity 6
Medium complexity because of the non-finalisation
of the project goal and objective by all the
stakeholders
Temporal
Complexity 5 Medium complexity because of the frequent change
in the scope of the project
Cost Factor 7 High level of complexity due to the increase in scope

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and unavailability of the financing arrangement
Schedule
Factor 6.5 High level of complexity due to the size and level of
complexity in developing the dam
Contextual
Factor 8.5
High level of complexity due to the various
stakeholders including the international countries of
Africa
Financing
Factor 8 High level of complexity due to the unavailability of
financing due to the opposition by Egypt
Figure: Rational of Complexity Level in GERD Project
Source: by Author
Conclusion from the discussion
The above-developed radar diagram clearly shows that most of the factors responsible for the
level of complexity of the project belong to the high category of complexity. Therefore, from
the discussion, it is concluded that the two most influential complexity factors are the
structural dimension of complexity because of the contextual factors of complexity present in
the GERD construction project. For this purpose, Ethiopia should conduct the appropriate
negotiations with the other African countries so that Ethiopia can convince them regarding
the non-presence of any risk to them and sharing the benefits too. The complexity level
identification and calculation are very much fruitful for any project because it can provide the
information regarding the direction of effort which should be provided by the project team to
reduce the level of complexity.
References
Computergaga. (2017, September 25). Create a Radar Chart in Excel. Retrieved January 8,
2019, from www.youtube.com: https://www.youtube.com/watch?
v=Cq3ny9lPwCw&feature=youtu.be
Dao, B., Kermanshachi, S., Shane, J., & Anderson, S. (2016). Project Complexity
Assessment and Management Tool. International Conference on Sustainable Design,
Engineering and Construction. 145, pp. 491-496. Texas: Elsevier Ltd.
doi:10.1016/j.proeng.2016.04.026
Gransberg, D. D., Shane, J. S., Strong, K., & Puerto, C. L. (2013). Project Complexity
Mapping in Five Dimensions for Complex Transportation Projects. Journal of
Management in Engineering, 29, 316-326. doi:10.1061/(ASCE)ME.1943-
5479.0000163
International Rivers. (2017, January 30). 5 Myths Surround the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance
Dam (GERD). Retrieved January 8, 2019, from

PPMP20014 (4th Discussion Forum): GERD Page 7 of 7
https://www.internationalrivers.org/blogs/not-yet-assigned/5-myths-surround-the-
grand-ethiopian-renaissance-dam-gerd
Remington, K., & Pollack, J. (2011). Chapter 3: Tools for Complex Projects. In T. Cooke-
Davies, L. Crawford, & C. Stevens, Aspects of Complexity: Managing Projects in a
Complex World (pp. 29-40). Pennsylvania, USA: Project Management Institute.
Taye, M. T., Tadesse, T., Senay, G. B., & Block, P. (2016). The Grand Ethiopian
Renaissance Dam: Source ofCooperation or Contention? Journal of Water Resources
Planning and Management, 142(11), 1-5. doi:10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-
5452.0000708
Whittington, D. (2016, June 8). Why technical discussions are needed for the Grand
Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. Retrieved January 8, 2019, from
http://theconversation.com/why-technical-discussions-are-needed-for-the-grand-
ethiopian-renaissance-dam-60004