Assessing and Managing Complexity Parameters in the GERD Project

This report provides an analysis of the complexity parameters affecting the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) project. It identifies key challenges such as structural changes, technical variations, temporal issues, directional complexities, transportation concerns, political influences, and environmental and social factors. Using radar diagrams, the report visually represents the impact of these parameters on the project's construction and completion. It emphasizes the importance of evaluating and managing these complexities using tools like PCAM and five-dimensional concepts to mitigate risks and ensure successful project delivery. The report concludes by highlighting the potential benefits of the completed dam, including hydroelectric power generation for Ethiopia and surrounding regions, while underscoring the need for effective management to address the identified challenges.

Running head: COMPLEXITY PARAMETERS OF GERD PROJECT
COMPLEXITY PARAMETERS OF GERD PROJECT

COMPLEXITY PARAMETERS OF GERD PROJECT 1
Table of Contents
Discussions......................................................................................................................................2
Diagram and Analysis......................................................................................................................3
Evaluation of Parameters.................................................................................................................6
Conclusion.......................................................................................................................................8
References........................................................................................................................................9

COMPLEXITY PARAMETERS OF GERD PROJECT 2
Discussions
The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam was earlier known as the Millennium Dam is
located in Ethiopia on the river Blue Nile and is a dam called gravity dam. The two articles that
have been provided regarding the context of the GERD serve in a very significant way, which is
to assess the various complexity parameters of a project and the tools to manage them. The
complexity that can arrive from a massive project like GERD that started out in the year 2011
can be of various types. There are issues of politics and of geography, transportation and
communication is another risk to be mitigated, the structure of the project or the dam and the
time taken to complete it are all the different types of complexities that may arise while building
the dam.
According to Dao et al. (2016), the Global Alliance for Project Performance Standards
initiated a standard for managing projects along with a tool for measuring complexity called
CIFTER that shows issues in infrastructure size and connectivity, newness and uncertainties of a
project. However, the specific article discusses PCAM Tool that weighs factors of complexity
and is applied to find the potential impact of issues of design, scope, concept, construction, etc.,
on a project (Dao et al. 2016). It further manages to provide a structure and understanding of the
complexity issues through charts and diagrams.
The article by Gransberg et al. (2013) provides a five dimensional complexity of
transportation on projects through graphs and charts (Gransberg et al. 2013). It defines the theory
of complexity, which is the management of infrastructures and how transportation is a significant
part of it, through different case studies of complex projects in countries like U.K., U.S., Canada,
or New Zealand the article defines the impact of various dimensions. It clearly defines how

COMPLEXITY PARAMETERS OF GERD PROJECT 3
transportation project is a work of public that follows regulations related to the public funding
and can be influenced by politics, opinion, or other external factors (Gransberg et al. 2013).
These articles presents scenarios, which provides us with a clear understanding of what kind of
complexities might affect and hinder the construction of the GERD project.
Diagram and Analysis
The construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam started in the year 2011 and it lies
in region of Benishangul-Gumuz, which is located at a distance of 15 km from the border of
Sudan (Abdelhady et al. 2015). The dam is supposed to be the largest power plant producing
hydroelectric power after it is completed and is about 6.45 gigawatts. However, when such a
huge project is under construction then the people related to it have to face a number of issues
and problems that has to be solved for the work to continue properly. The kind of issues and
complexities that are possibly hindering the completion of the GERD project can be identified as
the following:
 Structural changes have occurred for several times and have included two dams and three
spillways amounting to about 40% variation from the initial design of the project
(Abdelhady et al. 2015).
 Technical variations have taken place as well with the changes in the capacity of the dam.
While it has increased in the year 2012, it decreased again in the year 2017. That can be
accounted for a 30% variation of the techniques involved.
 Temporal changes or the impact of time on a project is a very crucial aspect as well as a
very significant complexity that has to be under control at all times. The mismanagement
of time is a very common thing as there lays various possibilities for the time being

COMPLEXITY PARAMETERS OF GERD PROJECT 4
dragged for a longer time than expected (Kahsay, Kuik, Brouwer & van 2015). The dam
was started in the year 2011 and is still under construction with no final date of
completion, which clearly states that the temporal issue has swayed the project by 65%
almost.
 Directional complexities are a very common part of a project of this kind as various
political and geographical aspects gets involved in the management of the project. The
Ethiopian Electric Power is the owner of the project and the key investor by the
government of the country as well as that of the neighboring countries like Sudan is
involved in it too, affecting the project by 32% (Kahsay, Kuik, Brouwer & van 2015).
Figure 1: Radar Diagram
(Source: Author’s Creation)
 Transportation complexity parameters involve the possibilities of siltation and irrigation
as well. These are involved because water is an issue that binds the whole project and

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without proper transportation and communication, it is impossible to deliver raw
materials and water to these areas resulting in the 14.6% impact on the project.
 Political involve the cooperation as well as the condemnation of countries that are close
to Ethiopia like Sudan and Egypt (Keith, Ford & Horton, 2017). Meetings at different
times with the political leaders of these countries have been conducted on the issue of the
dam and the power that it will generate or the water it will intake. The politics related to
the availability of water and population pressure are part of it as well, which measures to
53% impact on the completion of the project.
 Environmental and Social complexities lie with the people of the countries involved and
how they might be affected in the future with the construction of the dam (Keith, Ford &
Horton, 2017). While the dam will help to reduce the downstreaming while floods, it has
major environmental flaws accounting to 27% that influences the project.
Figure 2: Radar Diagram
(Source: Author’s Creation)

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The Radar Diagrams that has been provided here represents clearly the parameters of the
complexity, which affects the construction process of the dam as well as hinders the date of its
completion (Keith, Ford & Horton, 2017).
Evaluation of Parameters
The section above provides a detailed picture of the various aspects that forms the
complexities while a project is being under construction (Dao et al. 2016). From the moment of
initiation of a project these issues start evolving and if not managed by significant tools like
PCAM or the 5 dimensional concepts, these can take huge forms and be the reason of the
economic loss of projects. To understand the complexities the first thing that needs to be
evaluated is the reason of the complexity arising in a construction project (Dao et al. 2016). The
parameters of complexity that have been incorporated in the section above have been considered
a part of the problems of infrastructure of the GERD project because they have a direct and at
times radical effect on the work done on the Ethiopian dam.
The structural changes arrive and are present because of the size of the dam that has been
stated already (Dao et al. 2016). It needs segmentation in a proper way so that the power is
generated in a systematic order and can help the people of Ethiopia and its neighboring countries
in an equal way. The technical changes on the other hand depend on the ambiguity that the
resources and the features of the project goes through like the amount of materials invested or the
man power required (Tawfik, 2016). The elongation of time results in the technologies
exceeding their durations.

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Figure 3: Dam Project under Construction
(Source: Tawfik, 2016)
The time related issues have arrived from the involvement of authorities with the
management of the project and because of the political as well and environmental conditions of
Ethiopia, Egypt, and Sudan too (Gransberg et al. 2013). There are external influences like the
issue of engineering or protests from environmentalists, which hinders the work further. The
management issues have been present from the very beginning of the project with the
involvement of political and authoritative influences from the three countries that are mentioned.
Other than that, the governance of the project has to be dynamic under the direction of the
Ethiopian Electric Power. The transportation issues have developed because of the lack of proper
technology that fails to cope up with the lack of resources (Gransberg et al. 2013). The political
issues affects all the above mentioned aspects as there are political problems regarding water and
the dispersion of water in the countries near Ethiopia. Treaties and meetings takes up much time
and then the environment is affected in both a positive and negative way from the project.
Therefore, all these complexities influence the social life of the people at various degrees
based on the ways they are regulated after they have been identified. These issues have to be

COMPLEXITY PARAMETERS OF GERD PROJECT 8
brought under control if the project has to be completed as early as possible and so that it helps
the people in need (Gransberg et al. 2013).
Conclusion
The paper presents a clear understanding of the issues and the complexities that projects
like Grand Ethiopia Renaissance Dam that are not only massive in structure but also in economy
face. With the help of the Radar Diagram, it is depicted in a better way and profoundly deals
with the parameters of the complexities in infrastructure or management that affects the
financing of the project as well. The articles provide tools of measurement as well and it helps us
to generate a valuable idea of the ways that can be used to mitigate the complexities or to reduce
them effectively. When that is done, the project will achieve a successful completion and provide
hydroelectric power to the population of Ethiopia and the places surrounding the country.

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References
Abdelhady, D., Aggestam, K., Andersson, D. E., Beckman, O., Berndtsson, R., Palmgren, K.
B., ... & Pilesjö, P. (2015). The Nile and the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam: Is there
a meeting point between nationalism and hydrosolidarity?. Journal of Contemporary
Water Research & Education, 155(1), 73-82.
Dao, B., Kermanshachi, S., Shane, J., & Anderson, S. (2016). Project Complexity Assessment
and Management Tool. Procedia Engineering, 145, 491-496. doi:
10.1016/j.proeng.2016.04.026
Gransberg, D., Shane, J., Strong, K., & del Puerto, C. (2013). Project Complexity Mapping in
Five Dimensions for Complex Transportation Projects. Journal Of Management In
Engineering, 29(4), 316-326. doi: 10.1061/(asce)me.1943-5479.0000163
Kahsay, T. N., Kuik, O., Brouwer, R., & van der Zaag, P. (2015). Estimation of the
transboundary economic impacts of the Grand Ethiopia Renaissance Dam: A computable
general equilibrium analysis. Water Resources and Economics, 10, 14-30.
Keith, B., Ford, D. N., & Horton, R. (2017). Considerations in managing the fill rate of the
Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam Reservoir using a system dynamics approach. The
Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation, 14(1), 33-43.
Tawfik, R. (2016). The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam: a benefit-sharing project in the
Eastern Nile?. Water international, 41(4), 574-592.

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