Individual Assignment 1: Global Climate Change and Regional Efforts

This report examines global climate change, focusing on the UNFCCC's COP21 in Paris and the Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) submitted by ASEAN countries. It analyzes the importance of limiting global temperature changes to below 2°C, evaluates the success of COP21, and compares the INDCs of Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia based on their commitments to reduce carbon emissions, forestry protection measures, energy footprints, and technological support. The report concludes with an opinion on the effectiveness of these INDCs in controlling climate change. The report highlights the impacts of climate change such as changes in extreme river flows, drought and heatwaves, sea levels, and effect on plant development and growth. The analysis provides a detailed overview of the successes and failures of the climate change mitigation strategies.

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GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE
By Name
Course
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Institution
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Date

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INTRODUCTION
This research paper focuses on global climate change and the regional efforts directed towards
the mitigation of climate change. Climate change occurs when the variations in the climate
system of the earth result in new patterns of weather which remains in an area for a duration. The
major consequences of global climate change include mass extinctions of plant and animal lives,
deterioration of human health, changes in sea levels. The change in global climate is a major
issue recently affecting the world and the major causes of climate change include plate tectonics,
volcanism, solar output, orbital variation, and greenhouse gases. The United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change and the Intended Nationally Determined Contributions are the
major regional efforts directed towards mitigation of climate change which has been discussed in
this paper.
GLOBAL TEMPERATURE CHANGES
The major aim of the UNFCCC 21st Conference of the Parties (COP 21) in Paris was to establish
a new global climate change agreement that seeks to limit the global temperature changes to
below 1.5oC or 2oC warming in 2100 [1]. The importance of limiting global changes in
temperature to below 2oC warming include:
Effect on Plant Development and Growth
Temperature is a major factor affecting the growth and development of plants since warmer
temperatures affect the productivity of the plant. Pollution is greatly affected by extreme
temperatures across all species hence affecting the development stage of the plant. The viability
of maize pollen decreases with the temperature exposure above 35oC [2]. The vegetative
development such as leaf and node appearance increases as the temperature increases until the

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optimum level of the species. The projected increase in air temperature shows that the yield of
grains will continue decreasing for major crops due to the temperature stress increase for major
grain crops [3]. The higher temperature of air affects the reproductive, pollination, and plant
growth adversely.
Figure 1: Trends in global surface temperatures [4]
Changes in Extreme River Flows
The global changes in temperature to above 2oC warming affect the flow peaks and runoff
catchment areas that are snow-dominated. It has been projected that high temperatures increase
the frequency of flood and high flow in eastern Africa and Southeast Asia hence resulting in
monetary loss, low social-economic development, and loss of human lives. Some areas show an
initial rise in frequency of occurrence of historical high flows at 1.5oC and increase progressively
to 2oC [5]. These regions include Siberian catchments, central Asia, the south of the US, and
South America. There are also areas in which there is a decrease in the high flow frequency
between 2oC or 1.5oC and the present day such as some parts of Eastern Europe, Scandinavia,
South Africa, Canada, and the northern part of South America.

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Drought and Heat Waves
Extreme temperatures can increase the risk of other types of disasters. Heat can cause drought
and hot dry conditions which may result in wildfire conditions as recently witnessed in Australia.
The heatwaves and drought are also some of the major effects of high global temperature in
some parts of the world [4]. High-temperature effects the growth of plants and drying of water
sources hence leading to drought. There are regions in which droughts occur seasonally during
short rains while there are other regions where no rain is experienced in the area hence not plants
can grow due to lack of soil moisture [6]. High temperatures also result in exacerbates heat
waves as projected in central and western US during summer. Elevated nighttime temperatures
and high humidity are major causes of heat-related illness and death.
Sea Level
The increase in global temperature results in the rise in the sea level because of the tidal
processes. The rise in temperature causes thermal expansion of seawater and melting ice caps
and glaciers. The sea level is rising at approximately 3mm yearly around the world and research
shows that the sea level will be less or more as the temperature increases further [7]. Thermal
expansion of seawater also affects the movement of cold and hot oceanic currents around the
world, and even a small shift in the temperature and current of any major current can have a huge
impact on the sea level [8].

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Figure 2: Melting of glaciers [7]
Though polar ice caps and glaciers melt yearly during the summer season, the thickness of ice
increases again during winter as a result of seasonal and normal fall and rise of temperatures.
CONFERENCE OF THE PARTIES (COP 21)
The Conference of the Parties (COP 21) in Paris is a failure since as of 2017, none of the major
industrialized nations is implementing the policies discussed during the conference and have not
met their emission reduction target pledged. According to UNEP, the emission as in 2016 will
result in a rise in temperature by 3oC above the industrial level which is still higher than the 2oC
agreement [9]. By the use of the Integrated Global System Modelling, it was concluded that the
goals provided by the conference could not be attained in the future and that the global
temperature would be by the year 2100 at 3oC. The agreement does not have any kind of
mechanism of legal bindings or enforcement on the countries which fail to lower their
greenhouse gas emissions especially on high polluters such as Mexico, Indonesia, Canada, Saudi
Arabia, Iran, South Korea, Germany, Japan, Russia, US, and China [10]. Without any specific
fiscal pressure or penalty gradation such as carbon tax to prevent such behavior, the Conference
of the Parties (COP 21) in Paris is a failure.

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The agreement does not set any target for any country concerning their greenhouse gas emission.
No member state has since complied with the agreement on the reduction of greenhouse gas
emissions. To limit the temperature rise of the world to 1.5oC, there is a need for reducing annual
global emission by a 7.6% reduction in emission annually between 2030 and 2020. In 2018, the
emission of China increased by 1.6% to attain 13.7Gt of carbon dioxide emission [11]. The
greenhouse gas emission of India by 5.5% from the initial 7% in 2018, the EU declined by 1%
from the initial 8.5%, and the US increased by 2.5% from the initial 13%. With the rise in
greenhouse gas emission among member states, there is still no hope of limiting the temperature
rise of the globe to 2oC or 1.5oC [12]. Therefore, the COP21 in Paris is a failure since most
member states have not complied with the agreement.
Figure 3: Future and Historical Global CO2 Emission [13]
INTENDED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTIONS
The ASEAN Member states carried out collective and individual actions to solve climate change,
including reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, by considering respective capabilities, national
circumstances, and the differentiated but common responsibilities. The three selected ASEAN

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countries selected for comparison purposes include Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia [14].
Under the Paris Agreement, every state must regularly report, plan, and determine the
contribution that it undertakes in mitigation of global warming. All the ten member states of
ASEAN submitted their INDCs which entail laid own commitments to minimize the emissions
of greenhouse gases across the sectors identified.
Some member states of ASEAN identified forestry, land-use change, and land use as potential
sources for their greenhouse gas reduction commitments. Thailand submitted a proposal on
reduction economy-wide but reserved the inclusion of land-use change, land use, and forestry
later. Malaysia and Singapore submitted the highest ambition with an unconditional target
reduction of 35% and 36% by 2030, respectively, with Malaysia increasing its commitment to
45% are adequate to support is provided [15]. All the member states of ASEAN have included
adaptation actions, plans, and strategies in their nationals contributions determined.
ASEAN has long recognized the significant role that sustainable forest management and forest
conservation in the entire region can play in assisting in the mitigation of global climatic change
and providing sustainable economic opportunities for the locals [12]. All these climate actions
determine whether the world attains the long-term objectives of the Paris Agreement and to
attain the acceptable limit of global emissions of greenhouse gas urgently. Each climate plan
shows the ambitions of the country in emissions reduction, taking into consideration its domestic
capabilities and circumstances. The comparison of their technological support, energy footprint,
forest protection, and carbon emission reduction are shown in the table below:

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Country Commitment to carbon emission
reduction
Forestry protection Energy Footprint Technological support
Thailand It intends to reduce carbon
emission by 20% by 2030 from the
BAU level. This level may,
however, be reduced up to 25%
subject to capacity building,
financial resources, and technology
development support through an
ambitious and balanced global
treaty under the UNFCCC.
Made commitment to increasing the
national forest cover to 40%
through the participation of local
communities including mangrove
and headwater forests to enable
ecosystem adaptive ability.
The government of Thailand has
introduced a master plan for
reforestation which seeks to restore
forest cover to 40% of the national
territory within the next 40 years.
The recent carbon
footing is about
337MtCO2. 67% of
the total carbon
emissions are from
the energy sector as
indicated by the
Second National
Communication
The technological support
intended to promote carbon
emission reduction includes
fuel substitution and fuel
switching in electricity
generation and transport
sector, energy-efficient
buildings, and low-carbon
technologies in the
residential sector [16].
Malaysia Intends to minimize the emission
intensity of greenhouse gas
intensity by 45% by the year 2030.
Malaysia also intends to further
reduce the intensity of greenhouse
gas emissions to 35% on an
unconditional basis and a further
10% after receiving capacity
building, technology transfer, and
climate finance from developed
states.
Made initiatives ensuring
sustainable use of natural resources
and forest management through
Heart of Borneo and Forest Spine.
The National Forestry Policy seeks
to protect the forests through
reducing erosion of rivers and flood
damage, biodiversity conservation,
environmental quality, soil fertility,
and water resources.
The recent carbon
footing is about
250.3Mt in 2018
from 241.6Mt from
the previous year.
The Malaysian Green
Technology Corporation is
involved in the provision of
Low Carbon Cities
Framework which assess
and guide the development
of cities and support
sustainable development in
the country [11].
Indonesia Intends to unconditionally reduce
its carbon emission by 29% by
2030 and 26% by 2020.
This will be increased further in
2030 to 41% if support is
internationally provided [17].
Made initiatives ensuring
sustainable use of natural resources
and forest management through
Heart of Borneo and Forest Spine.
The Norwegian International
Climate and Forest Initiative have
been implemented to provide funds
for forest protection programs.
The recent carbon
footing is about
2161MtCO2 which is
4.47% of the global
carbon footing. The
emission from the
energy sector stands
at 22.6% while
forestry and land-use
change lead at 65%
The CO2 Capture Handling
Technology is technological
support developed in
Indonesia which seeks to
capture carbon and store it
in a safer form. This
technology has the potential
of reducing large-scale
carbon emissions [18].
Thailand intends to reduce carbon emission by 20% by 2030 from the BAU level. This level
may, however, be reduced up to 25% subject to capacity building, financial resources, and
technology development support through an ambitious and balanced global treaty under the
UNFCCC. Malaysia, on the other hand, intends to minimize the emission intensity of greenhouse
gas intensity by 45% by the year 2030 [19]. Malaysia also intends to further reduce the intensity
of greenhouse gas emissions to 35% on an unconditional basis and a further 10% after receiving
capacity building, technology transfer, and climate finance from developed states. Indonesia

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intends to unconditionally reduce its carbon emission by 29% by 2030 and 26% by 2020. This
will be increased further in 2030 to 41% if support is internationally provided.
Opinion on IDNCs
I feel that IDNCs will not be effective in controlling climate change since the majority of
ASEAN countries claim that they expected carbon emission target may not be attained due to
factors such as lack of financial resources and technology development support through
ambitious and balanced global treaty under the UNFCCC [20]. Most of these countries cannot
attain the required target without financial support. Despite their commitment to attaining the set
target, financial constraints have hindered most countries from investing heavily in carbon
emission reduction [18]. Financial support is required in the development of alternative systems
and methods which will reduce the emission of greenhouse gases. Technological support towards
carbon emission is still not developed effectively hence the technologies that are presently used
in major industries are still not effective in the reduction of carbon emission.
Another major reason why IDNCs will not be effective in carbon emission reduction is that the
majority of member states are focusing on industrial development which goes in hand with the
emission of greenhouse gases. As countries seek towards improving industrial development, the
carbon emission also increases, hence there is a need for slowing industrial development first
before focusing on the emission of greenhouse gases [21]. The IDNCs do not have any kind of
mechanism of legal bindings or enforcement on the countries which fail to lower their
greenhouse gas emissions. Therefore, the member states lack commitment in ensuring that they
attain the required global temperature limit of 2oC.

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Despite the ASEAN countries having submitted through INDCs, there have been a failure in
attaining any meaningful progress to reach effective greenhouse gas emissions among the states
over the past 18 years resulting into countries like US holding back from ratifying the Kyoyo
Protocol which is the most important agreement of UNFCCC [17]. The perceived lack of
progress has also resulted in some states focusing and seeking alternative high-level activities
such as the creation of Climate and Clean Air Coalition to minimize short-lived pollutants that
seek to regulate pollutants that are short-lived like HFCs, black carbon, and methane. These
regulations are not as fraught with wide opposition and economic impacts despite account for
about 1/3 of the present global warming.
CONCLUSION
The UNFCCC commonly referred to as Paris Agreement signs in 2015 deals with the finance,
adaptation, and mitigation of greenhouse gases emission. The United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change and the Intended Nationally Determined Contributions are the
major regional efforts directed towards mitigation of climate change which has been discussed
above. Both the UNFCCC and INDCs have established a new global climate change agreement
that seeks to limit the global temperature changes to below 1.5oC or 2oC warming in 2100. The
importance of limiting the global temperature changes below 2oC warming include effect on
plant development and growth, changes in extreme river flows, drought and heatwaves, and rise
or fall in sea level. The selected ASEAN countries discussed in this research paper include
Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia. I feel that the Conference of the Parties (COP 21) in Paris is a
failure since as of 2017, none of the major industrialized nations is implementing the policies
discussed during the conference and have not met their emission reduction target pledged.

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