Nepal's Global Warming: Historical Impacts and Future Projections

This report provides a historical analysis of global warming's effects in Nepal. It examines key indicators such as temperature increases, precipitation changes, and the melting of glaciers. The study highlights the significant rise in mean annual maximum temperatures, particularly from 1977 to 1994, and the accelerated rate of temperature change in recent decades. The report also discusses the uneven distribution of precipitation and the retreat of glaciers, including the alarming predictions about the complete melting of snow and ice in the mountains by 2035. Furthermore, the report details the historical occurrences of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs), their impact on the environment, and the projection of future GLOF events. It also touches on the ecological and biophysical consequences of these events, such as damage to forests, agricultural lands, and changes in soil properties. The report references several studies and data sources to support its findings, providing a comprehensive overview of the historical impact of global warming on Nepal's environment.

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History of global warming in Nepal
The global warming has led to both drought and flooding events in Nepal. The
production of the greenhouse gases in Nepal results from agricultural and forestry activities.
Being a mountainous and developing country, Nepal has greatly experienced the effects of global
warming (Ebi, Woodruff, Von Hildebrand & Corvalan 2007). Global warming has resulted to
effects such as heavy flooding, landslides, soil erosion and droughts. Nepal has high altitude and
latitude which makes it experience high temperatures. One of the major indicators of the
presence of global warming is the increase of temperature. From 1977 to 1994, the mean annual
maximum temperature in Nepal increased by 0.06 degrees Celsius. Currently, the temperature
increase has changed and a change of 0.5 degree Celsius per decade is being experienced due to
global warming effect. This temperature increase is too high compared to other developing
countries. Therefore, the historical temperature change is a key indicator that global warming has
greatly affected Nepal from the 1994 (Mool, Bajracharya and Joshi 2001). In addition, in order to
track the history of the global warming in Nepal, it is important to look at the changes in the
precipitation levels. Unevenly distribution is one of the key aspects which are being experienced
in the country. Unlike before, even rainfall was the norm in Nepal. More droughts are becoming
more regular although the country is mountainous.
In addition, the snow melting and glaciers is other indicator which can be used to show
the history of global warming. Khumbu glaciers have been experienced in the past in Nepal. But
since 1953, the glaciers have been able to retreat by more than 100m annually (CBS 2006).
Failure to take actions against global warming, snow and ice will melt and studies indicate that
by 2035, in Nepal snow and ice in mountains will be no more. Moreover, due to snow and
glacier melting, glacial lakes outburst flooding (GLOF) have been experienced. In the past,

GLOF have never been experienced but the increase of global warming has resulted to increase
of the melting and leading to the outburst of the lakes. From the satellites analysis, about five
lakes were able to burst between 1977 and 1998. The flooding from the lakes was able to affect
areas as far as 100 kilometers from the lakes. Some of the historical glacieal lakes which were
able to burst include Dudh Koshi glacial lake in 1977, the Zhangzhangbo in 1981, Chhubung
lake in 1991, Dudh Koshi in 1887, Sabai Tsho lake in 1998 and Kawari glacial lake in 2003
(Ageta, & Kadota 1992). Researchers also project that close to 20 glaciers are likely to burst out
in the next 5 to 10 years if action on global warming are not taken.
In addition, ecological and biophysical impacts can be used to explain the history of
global warming in Nepal. Damages of forests and agricultural lands due to flooding are some of
the past events which have been experienced when glacial lakes burst out (Ageta, & Kadota
1992). Soil properties are affected since debris is deposited downstream when flooding occurs.
For instance, the discharge on the outburst of Lake Dudh Koshi in 1995 was so high causing the
monsoon flooding.

References
Ageta, Y. & Kadota, T. (1992) Predictions of Changes of Glacier Mass Balance in the Nepal
Himalaya and Tibetan Plateau: A Case Study of Air Temperature Increase for Three Glaciers.
Annals of Glaciology, 16: 89–94
CBS (2006) Environmental Statistics of Nepal. Kathmandu, Nepal. San Diego Academic Press.
Ebi, K.L., Woodruff, R., Von Hildebrand, A. & Corvalan, C. (2007) Climate Change
‐related
Health Impacts in the Hindu Kush–Himalayas. EcoHealth, 4: 264‐270.
Mool, PK; Bajracharya, SR and Joshi, SP (2001) Inventory of Glaciers, glacial lakes, glacial
lake outburst floods monitoring and early warning system in the Hindu-Kush Himalayan region,
Nepal. Kathmandu, Nepal: ICIMOD. London: Business Education Publishers Limited.