Analysis of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) Project

This report provides a detailed analysis of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) project. It begins with an overview of the dam's construction, including financing details, costs, and the technical aspects of the project such as turbine capacity, spillways, and power generation capabilities. The report then delves into the geopolitical implications, highlighting the ambiguity surrounding the project and the potential benefits and challenges for Ethiopia, Egypt, and Sudan. It examines the uncertainties, tensions, and shifting power dynamics that have arisen, particularly concerning water and food security in Egypt. The report also discusses changes in turbine capacity, engineering modifications, and the social structures affected by the dam, including public participation and the impact on communities along the Blue Nile. It concludes by assessing the impact on Egypt and Sudan, considering water availability, electricity supply, and the lack of well-defined social structures to address potential adverse effects, referencing relevant studies and reports.

Running Head: GRAND ETHIOPIAN RENAISSANCE DAM 1
Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam
Student’s Name
Institutional Affiliation
Date

GRAND ETHIOPIAN RENAISSANCE DAM 2
Details of GERD
Construction financing and costs
According to the government of Ethiopia, the entire cost and financing of the project will be
from the state. Electricity generating turbines that cost approximately 1.8 billion US dollars are
funded by investment banks in China, (Salman, 2016). Leaving the Ethiopian government to
finance the remaining cost amounting to over 3 billion US dollars. These costs are exclusive of
power line costs.
Three spillways
The project will have three outlets. When flooding capacity of the outlets is put together, it will
amount to 38,500m3/s. however, these outlets are put for security reasons as studies have shown
an event that requires that amount of spillage is unlikely to happen. The spillage is directed to
Blue Nile River before it gets to Sudan.
The main outlet is situated to the left of the dam. It has a discharge capacity of 14, 700 m3/s
which is controlled using six floodgates, (Tawfik, 2016). Outlet with no floodgates is located at
the center of the two spillways. It has a width of 673 ft. with a base level located at 2100 ft. this
ungated spillway will be used when the dam reservoir is full and the general water flow is in
excess of 14,700m3/s. according to () this is expected once in a decade.
Power generation

GRAND ETHIOPIAN RENAISSANCE DAM 3
The powerhouses in the dam will be located either side of the ungated spillway. The right-side
powerhouse will consist of a 10*375MW turbine and the left powerhouse will have a 6*375MW
turbine. Recently, the turbines to be installed in the dam have been upgraded to 400MW with no
major changes being done to their nameplate volume.
Other GERD details include; siltation, water evaporation, irrigation activities, two dams, and the
project design
GERD ambiguity
Ethiopia, the owner of GERD has on many occasions held a stand that the project will be of great
benefits to her neighbors, Egypt and Sudan. These benefits are in the form of regular water flow
during the rainy season. From the studies, it is evident that the water supply downstream of the
Nile will be reduced and the inhabitants will have reduced water supply, (Tawfik, 2016).
Chances of dam flooding are next to impossible given the ideas put in place when the spillways
were constructed. Benefits implored by Ethiopia thus refer to the reduction of flooding in the
Nile. The Aswan High Dam, for example, needs constant flooding in the Nile for power
generation, irrigation and fishing is beneficial to the people of Egypt.
Tripartite meeting in Khartoum in 2018 stipulate that only international bodies can lead a
dialogue between the three states that are affected by the construction of the dam, (Gebremeskel
et al, 2017). However, the three states can also have a task force that can lead negotiations that
will lead to the prevention of a crisis. Egypt, of late, has been meeting leaders from Djibouti,
Sudan, and Tanzania to dialogue on their stand of the GERD project.

GRAND ETHIOPIAN RENAISSANCE DAM 4
President Abdel-Fattah El-Sisi has maintained his stand on his country’s commitment to serving
the development of African nations. The Egyptian media has made the stand on the GERD
project to be an emotional one that will require Egypt to strike the dam to save the country from
the risks she will be experienced.
Uncertainty
Egypt has been very influential over the activities that happen along the Nile river. Her food
security and water supply have heavily depended on the Nile. With the establishment of GERD,
the future of food security in the country is very uncertain as is fresh water supply, (Gebremeskel
et al, 2017). The power is shifting to Ethiopia creating uncertainty in the E-Sisi led government.
When the GERD project was set up, the impact it will have regarding the relationship between
Ethiopia and Egypt was never evaluated. Numerous discussions between the two countries has
been held with El-Sisi holding that the project is a threat to his country.
Just below the GERD project on the Ethiopian part, the government only focused on reducing
flooding in the region and focusing on ensuring energy security to its citizens, (Taye et al, 2016).
The people whose livelihood depended on the floods to water their lands for agricultural
purposes face an uncertain future when the dam is complete.
Dynamics in GERD
Turbine capacity change

GRAND ETHIOPIAN RENAISSANCE DAM 5
When procuring the power generating turbines for GERD, low capacity turbines were purchased.
The technical team of the project has therefore increased the capacity of the turbines from the
original 375MW to 400MW without changing the original nameplates.
Engineering change
After the consultative meeting between engineers from Egypt, Sudan, Ethiopia, and other
independent panels, the rim of the emergency outlet located at the rock saddle dam was increased
from 300m to 1,200 m, (Keith, Ford, & Horton, 2017). this was necessary to curb the possible
devastating effect in case of flooding.
International tension
Previously, Egypt and Ethiopia were peacefully coexisting neighbors. The establishment of the
GERD project has created tensions between these two countries. Both countries hold the notion
that GERD is a national security issue, (Kahsay et al, 2015). Food security and water security in
Egypt which depends on the Nile 90% are at risk. Ethiopia is fully focused on ensuring energy
security for its citizens. Thus, it has rendered the two countries into the unending tussle of best
interests.
Social structure and interrelationships
Public participation in the construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam the political
atmosphere in the country, according to the reports released by an NGO, International Rivers, it
is evident that public questioning of the country’s energy sector is highly risky, (Yihdego et al,
2016). There are reported cases of persecution of people who have challenged the whole idea. It

GRAND ETHIOPIAN RENAISSANCE DAM 6
has led to no social opposition to the construction of GERD. However, the dam will prove to be
beneficial socially to the common citizens of Ethiopia, Egypt, and Sudan.
The Blue Nile is a seasonal river which has caused devastating flood downstream interrupting
settlement and agricultural activities along the Nile basin. Reduced flooding will create the
protection of settlements from flooding risks. However, it will adversely affect agricultural
practices downstream since agricultural fields will be deprived of the water. The government has
solved this with the establishment with another dam downstream, Roseires Dam, which is
considered a game changer in the fishery in the entire area.
Impact of GERD to Egypt and Sudan is still unknown. Studies have shown that there will be a
decrease in water availability to the Egyptians and the Aswan High Dam. This will lead to a
reduction in electricity supply in Egypt up to 40%, (Berndtsson, Madani, Aggestam, &
Andersson, 2017). GERD is not structured well to take into account the adverse social impact it
will have and how the mitigation of the impact can be done. Egypt and Sudan are the hardest hit
with the lack of well laid social structures in the dam.

GRAND ETHIOPIAN RENAISSANCE DAM 7
References
Berndtsson, R., Madani, K., Aggestam, K., & Andersson, D. E. (2017). The Grand Ethiopian
Renaissance Dam: Conflict and water diplomacy in the Nile Basin. Water diplomacy in action:
contingent approaches to managing complex water problems. Anthem Press, Boston, 253-263.
Gebremeskel, D. T., Asfaha, T. G., Lanckriet, S., Azadi, H., Haile, M., Witlox, F., & Nyssen, J.
(2017). Land deals in western Ethiopia put the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam at risk of
siltation. In 7th Nordic Geographers meeting (NGM).
Kahsay, T. N., Kuik, O., Brouwer, R., & van der Zaag, P. (2015). Estimation of the
transboundary economic impacts of the Grand Ethiopia Renaissance Dam: A computable general
equilibrium analysis. Water Resources and Economics, 10, 14-30.
Keith, B., Ford, D. N., & Horton, R. (2017). Considerations in managing the fill rate of the
Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam Reservoir using a system dynamics approach. The Journal of
Defense Modeling and Simulation, 14(1), 33-43.
Salman, S. M. (2016). The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam: the road to the declaration of
principles and the Khartoum document. Water International, 41(4), 512-527.
Tawfik, R. (2016). The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam: a benefit-sharing project in the
Eastern Nile?. Water International, 41(4), 574-592.

GRAND ETHIOPIAN RENAISSANCE DAM 8
Taye, M. T., Tadesse, T., Senay, G. B., & Block, P. (2016). The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance
Dam: Source of Cooperation or Contention?. Journal of Water Resources Planning and
Management, 142(11), 02516001.
Yihdego, Z., Rieu-Clarke, A., & Cascão, A. E. (2016). How has the Grand Ethiopian
Renaissance Dam changed the legal, political, economic and scientific dynamics in the Nile
Basin?.