Economics Assignment: Causes and Implications of the Great Recession

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This essay provides a comprehensive analysis of the Great Recession that originated in the United States during 2007-2009, examining its causes and impacts. The essay begins with an executive summary highlighting the US economy's influence and the impact of the Great Recession on global markets, including the role of the housing market bubble, stock market crash, and other contributing factors. The introduction defines 'economy' and discusses the dynamic nature of economic fluctuations, including recessions. The essay then delves into the business cycle and the factors that contribute to recessions, such as interest rate fluctuations, stock market shocks, and irregularities in asset markets. The core of the essay focuses on the Great Recession in the USA, detailing its impact on GDP growth, employment, and consumer spending. It examines the primary causes, including the bursting of the housing sector bubble and the subsequent stock market crash, along with the implications for the US and global economies. The essay utilizes figures and data to illustrate the economic trends and provides a detailed explanation of the events leading up to the crisis, offering a clear understanding of this critical period in economic history. The essay concludes by summarizing the key findings and the lasting effects of the Great Recession.
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Running head: ECONOMICS ASSIGNMENT
Economics Assignment
Name of the Student
Name of the University
Author Note
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1ECONOMICS ASSIGMENT
Executive Summary
The economy of the United States of America remained as the most influential economy in the
global economic scenario, with significant strategic and decision-making power across the
world. The economy, otherwise showing an impressive growth trend, experienced one massive
jolt in 2007-2008, with the initiation of the Great Recession. The recession, primarily caused due
to the bursting of the housing market bubble and an accompanying stock market crash, had long
term adverse effects on the country as well as the global economic scenario, as the repercussions
were borne by almost all the leading as well as the developing economies of the world. There
were several other causal phenomena including the bankruptcy of the eminent investment banks,
including the Lehman Brothers and the dumping activities of the then growing economy of
China, which also contributed to the recessionary pressure on the economy of the USA. The
essay tries to analyze the causes of the Great Recession, which occurred in the USA during
2007-2009 and discusses the implications of the phenomenon on the economy of the USA.
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Introduction
By the term “economy”, the overall condition of a geographical area, in terms of the
production and consumption of goods and services within a particular span of time, is meant,
with the productive activities being measured mostly in monetary terms. The economy of a
country is inherently supposed to be dynamic, with the dynamism being created by the
interaction of the supply and demand forces and other crucial economic indicators, which in turn
causes short term as well as long term fluctuations in the economy of the country (Mian and Sufi
2015). The mutual interactions of these economic indicators and their fluctuations, often leads to
deviations from the economic equilibrium, thereby giving rise to abnormal situations in the
economy which can be short spanned or continue to persist for long, depending upon the nature
and magnitude of the fluctuation. One of the most significant of such situations is recession,
which means an overall decline and stagnating of the productive and economic activities of a
country for considerable period, thereby having considerable implications on the economy of the
concerned country. The essay tries to discuss the occurrence of one such phenomenon, the Great
Recession, which had its initiation in 2007-08, in the USA and left a long-term impression on the
economy of the country as well as the global economy as a whole. The main objective of the
essay is to find out and analyze the primary causes of this Great Recession of the USA and its
impact on the economy, providing explanations of these causes, in terms of economic concepts
(Giuliano and Spilimbergo 2013).
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Recession
As discussed above, the temporary slowdown of an economy, in terms of its production
activities, trade dynamics, industrial conditions and a lessened confidence of the people over the
monetary and stock markets of the economy, can be termed as a recession. The slowing down of
the overall economic growth of the country can be seen from the poor performances of the same
in different economic indicators, especially Real GDP and Real GDP per-capita growth rates,
which decline strikingly during that period (Gabisch and Lorenz 2013). An economy, by its
inherent dynamic nature, undergoes continuous changes, the rough pattern of which can be
explained with the help of the concept of the Business Cycle, which is discussed as follows:
Figure 1: Business Cycle in an Economy
(Source: As created by author)
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In a business cycle, there are four phases, namely expansion, peak, contracting time and
trough, which occurs in succession. In the contractionary period, when the economy hits the
lowest of the lows, it signals the occurrence of a recession, which graphically is signaled by a
trough, as shown in the above figure. Recession, apart from reducing the GDP statistics, also
reduces the employment generation, increases the unemployment and poverty issues, decreases
the aggregate demand and supply of the country and thereby, cumulatively reduces the overall
well being of the residents of the concerned economy. The cyclical nature of recession often
creates a vicious cycle of suffering in the economy, by continually aggravating the negative
performances of the economy, thereby leaving long term implications on the economic health of
the country, which takes a considerable amount of time to wither out (Sherman 2014).
Causes of recession
Among the various factors, which cause the advent of a recessionary situation in the
economy, few of the most significant ones are elaborated in the following section:
a) Fluctuations in interest rates- A faulty monetary and fiscal policy framework can lead to
adverse fluctuations in the interest rate prevailing in an economy, thereby hampering the
business and investment activities of the economy significantly, often leading to recession.
b) Stock market shocks- The stock market being one of the backbones of the monetary
framework of any economy, huge fluctuations in the stock market can lead to loss of confidence
on part of the investors and can make them skeptic about the profitability of investing, thereby
leading to a crash in the stock market. This may mark the beginning of recession in that
concerned country (Ehrenberg and Smith 2016).
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c) Irregularities in residential and other asset markets- Housing increasingly becoming one of
the primary arena of investment, a fall in prices of the residential assets, may also trigger a
recession. With the fall in the prices, the market sees immense number of foreclosures, the
problem becoming more severe in the high-developed regions, where residential investments
form a significant share of the total investment activities.
Apart from the above factors, there can be many other causes of recessionary pressure in
the economy, which varies according to the nature of the economy and other endogenous
characteristics of the country (Farmer 2012).
The Great Recession: USA
The United States of America is the one of the strongest global economies, for the last
few decades and enjoys significant power and influence on the global economic scenario. The
monetary and fiscal policies of the country not only have implications on the domestic economy
itself, but also have the capacity to influence the health of the global economy. The economy of
the USA, though is one of the most robust economies in the world, has experienced its share of
fluctuations over time, the two most significant of them being the Great Depression of the 1930s
and that of the Great Recession, the latter leading to a Global Economic Crisis. The latter
approximately continued to persist in the global economy for the period 2007-2009, with the
recovery starting from early 2010 (Rabie 2013).
The advent of the recessionary conditions started in the economy of the USA, from the
last quarter of the year 2007, as can be seen from the data of the National Bureau of Economic
Research with the simultaneous occurrence of several striking phenomena in the investment and
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stock markets of the country. As seen from the data provided by them, there was a 51%
contraction in the GDP of the country and huge negative repercussions on the overall
employment and aggregate consumption expenditures of the economy, the overall condition of
the country had similarity to that which prevailed at the time of the 1930’s Great Depression
(Rabie 2013).
Figure 2: GDP Growth Rate of the USA
(Data.worldbank.org, 2017)
As can be seen from Figure 2, the GDP growth rate of the country plunged steeply to a
high negative value, during that period, thereby providing evidences of the recessionary
conditions of the country, which decreased the economic activities of the same drastically. The
decrease in the overall productive activities of the country had immense implications on the
employment scenario of the country.
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Figure 3: Employment Population Ratio: USA (1900-2016)
(Source: Bls.gov, 2017)
Figure 3 shows the drastic fall in the employment population ratio of the country during
that period, the sheer magnitude of which had a long term effect on the overall economy of the
country as the ratio of the country since then had not still now came up to match the pre-
recession levels. There was a loss of almost 7.5 million jobs in the country itself, which had
tremendous repercussions in the economy as a whole (Enelow 2016).
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Figure 4: Changes in Personal Consumption Expenses in the USA
(Source: Bls.gov, 2017)
The shocking decrease in the employment numbers had direct implication on the
aggregate demand statistics of the country, which can be seen from the decline in the personal
consumption expenditures of the country during that period. The fall in the aggregate demand in
its turn reduced the supply side activities of the country significantly thereby, increasing the
recessionary pressure and marking the initiation of the Great Recession in the economy and the
Global Financial Crisis in the global economic scene (Fairlie 2013).
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Great Recession: Causes
The Great Recession, which started in the economy of the USA, in 2007 and had
immense implications on the economic health of the country as well as on the global economy,
effecting almost all the leading countries adversely and creating a huge financial crisis all over
the world. The causes of this phenomenon had always been an issue of huge debates among the
economists and policy-makers of the world. However, almost all the economists unanimously
agree on the contribution of several key factors to the initiation of the recession. These factors
are discussed below:
Bursting of Housing Sector Bubble
One of the primary and probably the most important reasons for the occurrence of the
Great Recession in the USA was the bursting of the huge bubble in the residential investment
sector of the country. Post Great Depression (1930s), the economy of the USA had recovered
and started prospering impressively, soon acquiring the position of the global leader in an overall
framework. The huge increase in the GDP as well as the population of the country gave rise to a
booming housing sector with a continually increasing demand for housings. The housings were
no more just facilities for accommodation, but with continuous increase in their value, they were
also treated as an alternative form of asset building for the households. The prevailing notion
regarding the stability in the price increase, attracted both commercial investors as well as
households to venture in the residential market, during this time (Jagannathan, Kapoor and
Schaumburg 2013).
The interest rates prevailing in the economy, were also low and were to some extent
deliberately kept at low levels to facilitate the inflow of investments in all the market, including
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the residential market. The banks and financial organizations, including the insurance companies
started venturing in this market, facilitating easy borrowing of money for the investors and
households, to invest in the residential sector. The lucrative mortgage facilities, very low initial
down payments and interest-only loan structures introduced by them, induced the households to
buy those housing assets, which were otherwise unaffordable by them. A section of
entrepreneurs started buying these housings and selling them at even higher prices, thereby
prospering immensely. All of these, cumulatively contributed in creating the housing market
bubble, which much to the shock of the speculators and investors, did burst in due course of time
(Jagannathan, Kapoor and Schaumburg 2013).
Figure 5: The creation and bursting of the housing market bubble in the USA
(Tradingeconomics.com, 2017)
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The bubble burst occurred with a sudden drastic fall in the prices of the housing market
of the country, after which the prices went on seeing a continuous decline. This fall in the prices,
led to the loss of confidence of both the households and the investors from the housing market
and its future profitability, which in turn led to a huge foreclosure in the residential market with a
lot of its potential and existing investors withdrawing from the market. The commercial banks
and the insurance companies were the worst hit with the bailing out of nearly 700 billion USD
from the residential market.
Stock Market Crash
The housing sector bubble burst had a direct relation with the astonishing crash in the
stock market of the country, which led to immense negative implications on the monetary health
of the country. This led to bankruptcy of many prominent investment banks and financial
institutions of the country, thereby making the scenario even worse for the country and for the
global investment statistics (Farmer 2012).
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Figure 6: Fall in the Net Worth of Household
(Imf.org, 2017)
The household market lost nearly 16 trillions of dollars, which affected the stock market
massively.
The bankruptcy of the Lehman Brothers
The largest bankruptcy in the history of the economy of the USA happened during this
period (2008), with the filing of bankruptcy of the Lehman Brothers, one of the largest
investment banks in the country, with a significant global business. The bank participated in the
housing bubble hugely, by creating mortgage originations. The bursting of the housing bubble
immediately affected the bank so adversely that the company with over $600 billion asset
holding, had to file for bankruptcy, thereby decreasing the Dow Jones by 500 points and
significantly affecting the global stock market (Hansen 2015).
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Dumping from China
The activity of exporting a good or service by a company or country to some other
country at a price lower than that is prevailing in the domestic market of the importing country is
known as dumping and this activity has severe significance on the international trade. The Great
Recession, which occurred in the USA, also had as one of the causing factors, the dumping
activities of another global economic giant, China, who at that point of time was experiencing
economies of scale in its industrial sector. The overall slowdown of the supply side dynamics
coupled with the dumping activities of China, had a huge adverse effect on the productive
activities of the economy of the USA (Mäler 2013).
Conclusion
From the above discussion, it can be concluded that one of the greatest economic
disasters, which occurred in the economy of the USA and had severe implications in the global
economy was the Great Recession of 2007-2008, which was coupled with the Global Financial
Crisis, affecting almost all the prominent economies in the world. The primary reason for the
occurrence of this recession being the burst of the bubble created in the housing market, there
were other factors affecting the economy too. The huge stock market crash, bankruptcy of big
investment banks like the Lehman Brothers and the dumping activities of other leading
economies like China also had implications on the supply side dynamics of the USA, thereby
aggravating the recessionary pressure.
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References
Bls.gov (2017). [online] Available at: https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cps_charts.pdf [Accessed
7 Sep. 2017].
Data.worldbank.org (2017). GDP (current US$) | Data. [online] Data.worldbank.org. Available
at: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD [Accessed 16 Sep. 2017].
Ehrenberg, R.G. and Smith, R.S., 2016. Modern labor economics: Theory and public policy.
Routledge.
Enelow, S., 2016. THE GREAT RECESSION. Film Comment, 52(5), p.56.
Fairlie, R.W., 2013. Entrepreneurship, economic conditions, and the great recession. Journal of
Economics & Management Strategy, 22(2), pp.207-231.
Farmer, R.E., 2012. The stock market crash of 2008 caused the Great Recession: Theory and
evidence. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 36(5), pp.693-707.
Farmer, R.E., 2012. The stock market crash of 2008 caused the Great Recession: Theory and
evidence. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 36(5), pp.693-707.
Gabisch, G. and Lorenz, H.W., 2013. Business cycle theory: a survey of methods and concepts.
Springer Science & Business Media.
Giuliano, P. and Spilimbergo, A., 2013. Growing up in a Recession. Review of Economic
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Hansen, P.H., 2015. Hall of mirrors: the great depression, the great recession, and the uses—and
Misuses—of History. Business History Review, 89(3), pp.557-569.
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Imf.org (2017). IMF Data. [online] IMF. Available at: http://www.imf.org/en/Data [Accessed 16
Sep. 2017].
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Mäler, K.G., 2013. Environmental economics: a theoretical inquiry (Vol. 7). Routledge.
Mian, A. and Sufi, A., 2015. House of debt: How they (and you) caused the Great Recession,
and how we can prevent it from happening again. University of Chicago Press.
Rabie, M., 2013. The Great Recession. In Saving Capitalism and Democracy(pp. 103-115).
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Rabie, M., 2013. The Great Recession. In Saving Capitalism and Democracy(pp. 103-115).
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Sherman, H.J., 2014. The business cycle: growth and crisis under capitalism. Princeton
University Press.
Tradingeconomics.com (2017). United States GDP Growth Rate | 1947-2017 | Data | Chart |
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