An Investigation of Interest Rate Variation in Tajik Banks Post-WTO

This report presents a comprehensive investigation into the variation and impact of interest rates on commercial banks in Tajikistan following the country's accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO). The study employs both quantitative and qualitative research methodologies to analyze the effects of interest rate fluctuations on bank operations and financial performance. The quantitative analysis includes tests such as Cronbach's Alpha for reliability, univariate statistics, and bivariate and multivariate analyses to examine the relationships between interest rates and various factors, including revenue, online operations, transactional security, asset liability management, and credit union financial conditions. Qualitative data, gathered through interviews and document analysis, explores themes related to lending rates, bank influences, cost factors, general factors affecting loan costs, and inflationary factors impacting lending rate determination. The findings are discussed in relation to facilities provided by banks, satisfaction with online services, transactional security, asset and liability management, and interest rate charges. The report concludes with a summary, contributions to theory and practice, recommendations, and limitations, offering valuable insights for understanding the dynamics of interest rate changes in the context of Tajikistan's banking sector.

An investigation of variation and impact of
interest rate in commercial banks in
Tajikistan after accession to WTO

TABLE OF CONTENTS
CHAPTER 4: FINDINGS...............................................................................................................1
4.1 Introduction......................................................................................................................1
4.2 Results- Quantitative........................................................................................................1
4.2.1 Test/ Retest Reliability..................................................................................................2
4.2.2 Univariate statistics.......................................................................................................3
4.2.3 Bivariate Statistics.......................................................................................................16
4.2.4 Multivariate Statistics..................................................................................................23
4.3 Results- qualitative.........................................................................................................33
4.4 Qualitative research paradigm and approach.................................................................33
4.4.1 Interpretive paradigm..................................................................................................33
4.4.2 Research approach.......................................................................................................34
4.5 Data analysis process:.....................................................................................................34
4.6 Themes:..........................................................................................................................34
4.6.1 Theme 1:......................................................................................................................34
4.6.2 Theme 2:......................................................................................................................36
4.6.3. Theme 3:.....................................................................................................................37
4.6.4. Theme 4:.....................................................................................................................38
4.6.5 Theme 5.......................................................................................................................39
4.7 Results- document analysis............................................................................................41
4.8 Data analysis process......................................................................................................41
4.9 Themes...........................................................................................................................42

4.9.1 Theme 1: How does Impacts of liberalisation in commercial bank lending rates?.....42
4.9.2 Theme 2: Does your bank has any influences due to commercial bank lending rates?43
4.9.3 Theme 3: The cost factors affect determination of lending rates in commercial banks in Tajikistan. 45
4.9.4 Theme 4: The general factors are relevant with cost of loans.....................................46
4.9.5 Theme 5: The inflationary factors which affect lending rate determination...............46
4.10 Reliability and Validity................................................................................................48
4.11 Conclusion....................................................................................................................48
CHAPTER 5: FINDINGS AND DISCUSSION...........................................................................50
5.1 Introduction....................................................................................................................50
5.2 Theme 1: Facilities provided by bank with relations to interest rate in deposits:..........51
5.3 Theme 2: Satisfaction through online services provided by bank..................................54
5.4 Theme 3: Securities with making transactional operations:...........................................58
5.5 Theme 4: Role of banks’ assets and liability management for addressing financial issues: 61
5.6 Theme 5: Satisfaction through interest rate charges on borrowed money:....................68
5.7 Conclusion......................................................................................................................73
CHAPTER 6: CONCLUSION, CONTRIBUTION AND RECOMMENDATIONS...................76
6.1 Introduction....................................................................................................................76
6.2 Summary and main conclusion......................................................................................76
6.3 Contribution to theory or knowledge.............................................................................78
6.4 Contribution to practices................................................................................................80
6.5 Recommendations..........................................................................................................81
6.6 Limitations recognised in research study.......................................................................84

6.7 Further study for future research....................................................................................85
REFERENCES..............................................................................................................................86
APPENDIX....................................................................................................................................89

CHAPTER 4: FINDINGS
4.1 Introduction
In this present chapter there have been examination and test of the data base which have been used by researcher to analyse the
research issues. Moreover, with aspect to make adequate ascertainment and analyse the changes or influences commercial banks have
as per changing interest rates and governmental regulation relevant with banking operations. However, this chapter is consisted with
all the relevant information which are to be used by the professionals in making effective analysis and learning based on the issues
studied.
To analyse the impacts of changes in lending rates which affects commercial bank’s operations and growth. However, in relation
with this, there will be determination of the main factors which are affecting commercial bank operations as well as interest rate
variation in Tajikistan. There has been development of various plans and operational variation which will help in making proper
ascertainment of the operations. In this process, there will be influences of various aspects and elements which have been used to
examine the factors such as Descriptive statistics, ANOVA tests, T-test, Chi square, etc. therefore, such tests and statistical analysis
will bring accurate information relevant with data base. In addition, as per analysing the appropriate outcomes, there will be
preparation of several questions and interview with professionals at commercial banks of Tajikistan which in turn will be useful for
making appropriate participation in this aspect.
4.2 Results- Quantitative
As per analyzing outcomes which implicate quantitative techniques for investigating reasons behind interest rate fluctuations
and changes in operational activities of commercial banks. Therefore, on which implicating statistical tools will bring accurate
outcomes. However, researcher has asked several questions to professionals of commercial banks in Tajikistan with respect to analyze
the concrete issues (as stated in Appendix).
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4.2.1 Test/ Retest Reliability
In relation with analysing the relationship between the group of variables which are has to be considered by the researcher with
approach to have adequate ascertainment of the data base. Thus, in accordance with this, there have been development 5 industrial
question which were being asked to 150 employees at the commercial banks of Tajikistan. Thus, this test will be helpful in analysing
the reliability of information which have been used for the further tests and analysis. In accordance with designed data set there have
been implication of Cronbach’s Alpha coefficient over the 5 variables. Thus, there have presented information as follows:
Case Processing Summary
N %
Cases
Valid 150 100.0
Excludeda 0 .0
Total 150 100.0
a. Listwise deletion based on all variables in the
procedure.
Reliability Statistics
Cronbach's Alpha Cronbach's Alpha Based on Standardized Items N of Items
.305 .312 5
Interpretation: On the basis of above analysed data base where it can be said that there have been test of reliability over the 5
variables. However, Cronbach’s alpha has been ascertained and analysed to have the adequate analysis over the data set. The scale of
measuring the reliability of the database is 0.60 – 0.70. Thus, on eth basis of proposed outcomes which have provided the information
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such as 0.305 which is 30.5% of the reliability over 5 variables. Moreover, it can be said that, the data is less reliable to be measured
and having the appropriate outcomes through it.
4.2.2 Univariate statistics
This is the concept which will help in analysing the types of data and observations that argue to single attribute or characteristic.
However, analysing the univariate data on which researcher have denoted the independent variable as interest rates and dependent
variable as revenue in banking industries. In addition, there will be use of various data base which will be analysed, collected and
measured for accurate data analysis.
Hypothesis:
Null hypothesis: There is no mean significant difference between interest rates and revenue of commercial banks in Tajikistan
Alternative Hypothesis: There is a mean significant difference between interest rates and revenue of commercial banks in
Tajikistan
Univariate Analysis of Variance
Descriptive Statistics
Dependent Variable: Does your bank facilitate the appropriate interest rate in deposits?
Mean Std.
Deviation
N
2.29 1.277 150
Tests of Between-Subjects Effects
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Dependent Variable: Does your bank facilitate the appropriate interest rate in deposits?
Source Type III Sum
of Squares
df Mean
Square
F Sig.
Corrected
Model .000a 0 . . .
Intercept 788.907 1 788.907 483.547 .000
Error 243.093 149 1.631
Total 1032.000 150
Corrected Total 243.093 149
a. R Squared = .000 (Adjusted R Squared = .000)
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Interpretation: On the basis of above listed Univariate analysis over the data base on which it has been asked to the
professionals regarding Interest rates have presented by their banks are appropriate or not. Thus, there have presented their reviews
and majority are in favour with the services and interest rates charged by their banks on the services. Similarly, in analysing the table
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where Significant value is 0.000 which is lower than P value of 0.05 that defines that, there is a mean significant difference between
interest rates and revenue of commercial banks in Tajikistan.
Descriptive Statistics
Dependent Variable: Are the online operations performed by your bank is quite satisfactory?
Mean Std. Deviation N
2.15 1.252 150
Tests of Between-Subjects Effects
Dependent Variable: Are the online operations performed by your bank is quite satisfactory?
Source Type III Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig.
Corrected Model .000a 0 . . .
Intercept 695.527 1 695.527 443.87
7 .000
Error 233.473 149 1.567
Total 929.000 150
Corrected Total 233.473 149
a. R Squared = .000 (Adjusted R Squared = .000)
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Interpretation: As per analysing, online operations of the banking firm on which professionals have presented their views.
Thus, in accordance with the operation performed by commercial banks in Tajikistan where online operations have been judges on the
factory services being performed by them. However, in respect with analysing the significant value of the data set which have brought
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the outcomes based on the analysis have presented as 0.000 that is lower than the significant value of 0.05. Thus, it states strong
evidence against the null hypothesis as well as acceptance to the alternative hypothesis such as, there is a mean significant difference
between interest rates and revenue of commercial banks in Tajikistan.
Descriptive Statistics
Dependent Variable: Do you feel safe while making transactional operations?
Mean Std. Deviation N
2.33 1.251 150
Tests of Between-Subjects Effects
Dependent Variable: Do you feel safe while making transactional operations?
Source Type III Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig.
Corrected Model .000a 0 . . .
Intercept 816.667 1 816.667 521.500 .000
Error 233.333 149 1.566
Total 1050.000 150
Corrected Total 233.333 149
a. R Squared = .000 (Adjusted R Squared = .000)
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