Grexit and its Impact on the Greek Economy - FIN3IFM Homework

This homework assignment, focusing on international financial management, provides a comprehensive analysis of the Grexit phenomenon and its impact on the Greek economy. It begins by examining the financial challenges Greece faced, including budget deficits, pension policies, corruption, unemployment, and an ineffective tax system. The assignment then explores Greece's experience as a member of the European Union, highlighting the initial benefits and subsequent mismanagement of funds that led to an economic crisis. The discussion includes the debates surrounding Greece's membership, austerity measures imposed by the European Union and the IMF, and the potential benefits and drawbacks of a Grexit. The assignment considers various factors such as the impact on the Greek economy, the potential for self-sufficiency, and the reforms needed to stabilize the country's finances. The analysis emphasizes the importance of fiscal policy, tax reform, and pension system improvements for Greece's economic recovery. The paper also briefly mentions a2 Milk Ltd Pty as a secondary topic.

Running head: INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT
INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT
Name of the Student
Name of the University
Authors note

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Section 1: Grexit or not
Part 1
Greece was not a nation which is financially sound like other members of the European
Union. Earlier in 1981, Greece was a part of the European Union, but the budget deficit in the
hands of Greece did not qualify into the Eurozone. It was a sign that the budget deficit of Greece
was high, and they could not surpass the Maastricht Criteria set by Eurozone.
One of the major causes behind this huge budget deficit of Greece was it's pension
policies which backfired brutally. It led to the situation where they can not even pay the
pensioners properly now and multiple cuts to the pension amount paid.
When Greece became a part of the European Union in 2001, they had the most expensive
pension structure in the entire European Union. 17.5% of the GDP of Greece went into pension
expenses. Even though they were not financially sound, they have up 2.5% more of their GDP
into pension expenses than other countries of the European Union like Italy, France and Austria.
One of the primary reasons behind this considerable pension giveaway was the role politics
played and the incompetence of financial authorities to keep that under control. The trade unions
associated with the Military and Police collected huge pension benefits on and off the records.
As of now, the Government does not have enough funds to cover the pensioners of the country
even after multiple cuts in pension amount paid(Filippidis et al., 2017).
In addition to this, another reason behind the fall of the Greek economy was grand
corruption and collection of benefits like bonuses and other forms of payouts by government
employees. It was not just pension benefits, the funds with the Government was looted in kinds
of work bonuses and through different types of handouts too. Once again, it appears as the

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incompetence of financial authorities who could not keep their financial assets and expenses
under control.
Amidst all the conditions where government funds were being looted, another threat that
the Greek Government faced was the rising case of unemployment. It was not addressed well
enough by the Government and turned out to be one of the major causes behind the economic
crisis. More than half of the youth population of Greece is unemployed, and more than 25% of
the Greece population too is in search of jobs. It soon turned to chaos in the country and even
possessed a threat to the political system creating instability.
Another essential reason behind the economic crisis of Greece was the completely
incompetent tax system they had. The wealthy were the ones who evaded taxes and were
unquestionable. So it led to the loss of a considerable amount of tax money for the Government.
Adding to the crisis, the retirement age of the Greek citizens was 67 years. Still, many
government employees used this policy to their advantage and retired early for a reasonable sum
in the form of pension. The Greek Government failed to restrict this practice, and more
employees efficiently exploited this to fill their pockets.
Currently, the total national debt of Greece is 177% of its GDP, the most for a member of
the European Union. These factors played a crucial role in the deterioration of the Greek
economy and leading to an economic crisis in the country(Arampatzi 2017).
Part 2
Being a part of the European Union has backfired Greece horribly and the benefits they
reaped in the initial years, being a part of the European Union was not enough to cover the
damage.

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Unlike Greece, a lot of countries during the initial phase of being a member of the
European Union and during the transition phase to Euro as currency, have improved in every
sector of the economy. Greece was an exception among the other countries which attained
development by reaping the perks of being a member of the European Union. From 1980 through
2004, the members of the European Union had an average aggregate growth of 12% in their
GDP at their initial phase(Ikonomou 2018).
Greece enjoyed a lot of benefits once it adopted the Euro as its national currency. It
witnessed a remarkable growth in the number of incoming investments, mostly FDIs in their
country. Even though the dwindling market rates and hike in prices affected the public, it
provided loans and advances at unbelievably low-interest rates. It improved the flow of goods in
and out of the country.
There were signs of eradication of unemployment but sadly, Greece dug its own grave.
Inadequate and improper management of funds made the activities of monetary institutions
unstable. A massive increase in the borrowings and the funds borrowed were not put into best
and optimum use. The Government and financial bodies exercised no or little control over the
borrowings made, money exchange rates and interest rates on loans.
When The Government of Greece went bankrupt in 2012, the funds from the European
Union and International Monetary Fund helped them in paying off the interest. The regular flow
of funds from these institutions revived the banks of Greece who ran out of cash. The decision
was taken to recapitalize these banks with 10 to 25 billion euros per bank(McCormick 2017).
This helped Greece in controlling the chaos as the public were restricted from withdrawing more
than a certain amount of money. Even at the stage of massive unemployment, the political

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structure of the nation became weak and unstable. Sadly, without proper management of
pension and tax structure, Greece was not ready to accept European Union membership and
transition to Euro from Drachma. Now it has been a decade, and the Greek Government is
paying for the mistakes in its mismanagement, incompetence, and corruption. There were very
fewer benefits received by Greece compared to the struggles it had to undergo. They were on the
verge of an economic crisis for four years and went bankrupt in 2012. The benefits they received
were limited to the initial phase of Greece in the European Union, and later everything
overturned not in favour of Greece.
Part 3
There have been debates and discussions over the membership of Greece in the European
Union as another bailout has been issued to Greece but no significant improvement in their
economy so far. Some economists justify the position of Greece in the European Union and how
important it is for Greece right now to save their place in the European Union. At the same time,
many suggest the exit of Greece from the European Union, known as Grexit, to protect their
economy.
A variety of measures have been adopted by the European Union, IMF and the
Government of Greece to stabilize their economy and restore its strength. Since Germany and its
bankers were at the top position from whom Greece had borrowed money funds from, they
implied austerity measures on Greece, forcing them to follow stringent economic
policies(Stiglitz 2020).
Under the phase of austerity, many policies and measures were introduced, and critical
changes were made to revive the Greek economy. It included massive cuts in the pensions

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allotted and rise in the contribution made by employees towards their retirement. Restrictions
were imposed on early retirement policies, and the incentives provided to them were cut short. A
significant reform was required in the tax system, and the Government increased tax rates, along
with VAT and Corporate tax.
Back in 2009, the deficit in the Greek budget was 12.9% which was four times bigger
than the recommended 3% by the European Union. It further brought the credit ratings of the
Government down.
It led to an increase in unemployment, but the privatization of state-owned industries
helped in creating opportunities. There were signs of political instability, and the public lost faith
in the Government. The Government of Greece, focusing on a more liberal approach towards
exports by cutting costs, may improve the market conditions in Greece. The regular flow of
funds from the European Union and IMF has so far helped Greece a lot in evading bailouts and
payment of interest(Cullis and Morley 2017 ).
Right now Greece desperately needs a much-improved tax system and a reform where it
can restrict tax evasion. Attempts should be made on bringing down the budget deficit and for a
better pension system. A modernized tax system and pension system need to be installed in the
country to ensure there is proper management of crucial funds of the organization.
Part 4
It is indeed a shocking fact that a country like Greece, once an epitome of wealthy
empires, is currently facing economic depression and that too from the past decade.
Inappropriate rates of government policies and improper management of government funds and

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other financial resources have led them to this stage where there is not much progress in the
condition of Greece from the past decade(Clarke et al., 2017 ).
When Greece became a part of the European Union back in 2001, nobody could have
predicted that it would lead the country to an economic depression. Now whether Greece should
retain its position in the European Union or should just leave the Union, is a matter of discussion.
It is popularly known as Grexit or the Greek Exit from the European Union.
Grexit could be a wiser option for Greece at this stage, especially when they are moving
towards another bailout. More and more funds being borrowed from international organizations
are not going to help Greece at this stage, as they are doing this for the last ten years. The regular
flow of funds from the European Union and International Monetary Fund is saving them from
going default and for bailouts. During these ten years, the state had to give up many industries to
private concerns, banks ran out of funds and were on the verge of going default. So Grexit would
be a much better option for Greece than sticking onto the membership of the European Union
and dealing with Euros(Clarke et al., 2017 ).
The impact of Grexit will be harsh for the Greek economy, but they will be more self-
sufficient, and a revival is possible over time. Giving up Euro and bringing back Drachma
banknotes and coins, imposing restrictions on import and export of goods, a complete reform of
the pension and tax structure of the nation is advised. The value of Drachma after Grexit would
be much worse, but there will be new investments in all sectors.
But keeping in mind their present state of the tax system, political structure and pension
funds, it will be tougher for the firms to grow in a corrupted environment. The experience of
Greece that came in with the imposed austerity by German banks where stringent measures can

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be introduced after the phase of Grexit. Since the trade policies of Greece would be less liberal,
there will not be much competition too. This phase after Grexit will give a beginner advantage to
the firms competing for that does not involve competition from outside markets.
Greece is always known for its tourism, so it will be an excellent opportunity for the
Government to bring in foreign exchange and FDIs. It can work on the revival of agriculture and
consumption of domestic products instead of imported ones. Adoption of these measures will
help the country in being more self-sufficient. Also, there will be a rise in demand for the goods
produced domestically that leads to an increase in production by local producers. It will have a
direct impact on the GDP of the firm. The Greek Government went bankrupt back in 2012, and
through these measures, slowly they can regain their place in the market. It needs to work on its
debt to GDP ratio, the value of its currency, pension and tax structure thoroughly before joining
the European Union again. The borrowed funds from the European Union and IMF can only pay
off the interest and Grexit hopefully, is the only solution they can opt for, to strengthen their
economy. Grexit is thereby advised as a much better viable option to go for to revive the Greek
economy(Nugent 2017).
Section 2: a2 Milk Ltd Pty
Part 1
As per the problem, the situation follows that Milk, an Australian company, will import
supplies from New Zealand. Hence the company is afraid of AUD falling, i.e. NZD rising.
a) AUD equivalent at current spot ratio -
AUD/USD = 0.7289 / 1.3719
NZD/USD = 0.6759 / 1.4795

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AUD/NZD = 0.7289 ÷ 1.4795 / 1.3719 ÷ 0.6759
AUD/NZD = 0.49267 / 2.02974
The AUD equivalent at current spot rate = 2.02974 × 1,50,000
Therefore AUD = 3,04,610
Note: AUD/NZD = 0.49267 / 2.02974 represents bid rate and ask rate respectively.
Part 2
Foreign Exchange Rate Risk Exposure
AUD/NZD at the current spot rate: 2.02974
AUD/NZD after six months :
AUD/USD after 6 months = 0.7242 / 1.3808
NZD/USD after 6 months = 0.6800 / 1.4706
Therefore AUD/NZD after 6 months =
0.7242 ÷ 1.4706 / 1.3808 ÷ 0.6800
= 0.4925 / 2.03059
Therefore AUD/NZD ask rate after 6 months = 2.03059
Exchange rate risk/loss = (2.03059 - 2.02974) × 1500,000

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AUD = 1275
Part 3
First of all, Hedging can be defined as an activity that is designed to reduce or eliminate
the uncertainty. At this moment, there is an uncertainty revolving around the exchange rate in the
future. Thus Hedging would be a much better option here to look on to. As of now, Milk can
enter into this contract to import necessary goods from New Zealand. The contract can be signed
at the rate of NZD/USD- 0.6800/1.4706.
Moreover, the spot rate after six months is missing, so it is impossible to predict the spot
rate with available data. So the fact is not sure that whether the hedge made is going to be a
perfect one.

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References
Arampatzi, A., 2018. Constructing solidarity as resistive and creative agency in austerity
Greece. Comparative European Politics, 16(1), pp.50-66.
Clarke, H.D., Goodwin, M.J., Goodwin, M. and Whiteley, P., 2017. Brexit. Cambridge
University Press.
Cullis, J. and Morley, B., 2017. A methodology for determining the ‘cash economy’in the
European Union via an announcement effect. European Journal of Law and Economics, 44(1),
pp.113-129.
Filippidis, F.T., Gerovasili, V., Millett, C. and Tountas, Y., 2017. Medium-term impact of the
economic crisis on mortality, health-related behaviours and access to healthcare in
Greece. Scientific reports, 7, p.46423.
Ikonomou, C., 2018. Funding the Greek Crisis: The European Union, Cohesion Policies, and the
Great Recession. Academic Press.
McCormick, J., 2017. Understanding the European Union: a concise introduction. Palgrave.
Nugent, N., 2017. The government and politics of the European Union. Palgrave.
Stiglitz, J.E., 2020. Rewriting the Rules of the European Economy: An Agenda for Growth and
Shared Prosperity. WW Norton & Company.

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Appendix
Section 2
Part 1
Part 2

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