Analytical Thinking and Decision Making - iResearch Case Study Report

This report provides a comprehensive analysis of the iResearch decision-making case study, focusing on the application of decision analysis techniques to a complex business problem. The report addresses the value of decision analysis within an organization, outlines the challenges faced by iResearch, and discusses the assumptions made. It applies decision analysis to develop an appropriate decision tree, calculates expected values using the rollback method, and outlines the most suitable approach for iResearch, along with recommendations for the managers. The strengths and limitations of the analysis are discussed, along with the influence of probability estimates and uncertainty within the decision-making process. The report also considers the impact of iResearch engineers changing their initial probability estimates. The analysis covers the development of software applications for production and engineering management companies, considering both web-based and mobile platforms, and evaluating different software packages (A, B, C, and D) with varying costs and probabilities of success. The report also considers the financial implications of the project, including proposal costs, contract payments, and development costs. The report is structured with clear sections, an introduction, and a conclusion, and adheres to Harvard referencing style.

COURSEWORK Session 2020/2021
Module title Analytical Thinking and Decision Making
Module Code 11079
Submission date and time See Turnitin Link
Weighting of assessment 40% of total mark.
Instructions to Candidates
THIS AN GROUP COURSEWORK
Groups will be allocated by the Module Coordinator
This assignment is based on the iResearch Decision Making Case Study, which is
shown below. It is designed to assess your ability to use an appropriate method to
structure and analyse a complex decision problem, and evaluate the strengths and
limitations of your analysis
Instructions
Apply decision analysis to the decision problem facing iResearch and advise the
managers on their decision problem. Within your group produce a report of a
minimum of 2,000 words that addresses the following questions:
1. Discuss the value of decision analysis within the context of an organisation
2. Outline the challenges facing iResearch and discuss any assumptions you have
made
3. Apply decision analysis and develop an appropriate decision tree
4. Calculating the expected values and following the rollback method, outline the
most suitable approach for iResearch. Discuss your recommendations for the
managers of iResearch
5. Discuss the strengths and limitations of your analysis in the context of the
decision problem
6. Discuss the influence of the iResearch engineers changing their initial
probability estimates. Discuss the influence of probability estimates and
uncertainty within the decision making process
Do not undertake Sensitivity Analysis.
Each question will be marked out of 100.
Word length: Minimum 2,000 words excluding references
A 10% weighting will be allocated towards the report structure, presentation and
referencing.

The assignment should be presented within a report structure. Each section of the
report should be clearly structured and defined and an introduction or overview
should be provided. Across the report you will also need to show evidence of
assessing a range of resources, e.g. internet, journals, text books and company
documents such as annual reports. A Harvard Referencing style should be followed.
This coursework assesses the following learning outcomes
L4. Demonstrate the ability to apply tools, techniques and practices to complex
business problems (identify, investigate, formulate, and advocate novel and creative
solutions and ideas)
L5. Critically evaluate the various factors which impact on sound decision making
Submission instructions
Your tutor will indicate where you should submit your completed coursework. Your
work should be submitted through TURNITIN and emailed directly to your tutor.
Your attention is drawn to the University’s policy on Plagiarism and Collusion which apply to
this assessment. Details are available in your Student Diary.
You should also be aware that late submissions will be penalised in line with University
regulations.

Marking Matrix
Component Weighting Mark/Comment
Question 1 15%
Question 2 10%
Question 3 20%
Question 4 20%
Question 5 10%
Question 6 15%
Report Structure - Structure,
flow, presentation, academic
writing style
5%
Referencing - Use of Harvard
Referencing style. Application
of academic sources and
demonstration of applied
critical thought
5%
Total

iResearch Decision Making Case Study
ACME Systems is an international organisation providing production equipment and
services to the manufacturing industry. As the integration of software applications
into business functions has become increasing prominent within multiple industries,
ACME's business has expanded dramatically. While based within the UK, the
organisation now has customers and operations across the globe and offers a range
of products. To support the release of a new production system, ACME is looking to
provide customers with a new integrated software application. This software will
support existing ACME products and provide businesses with the ability to assess
and monitor their production and logistics efficiency. Since ACME does not have the
necessary research and programming capabilities to develop this software directly,
ACME will subcontract the project to an independent software design firm.
Following an initial consultation phase, ACME has identified two software design
firms capable of developing the software application. Both firms have been
approached to provide a proposal for the project. ACME will award the contract to the
design firm with the best technical plan and proposed software capability. Following a
successful proposal, ACME has offered a fixed fee for the development of a fully
operational software application.
After receiving the invitation to tender, iResearch is interested in putting forward a
proposal for the ACME project. iResearch is a design firm specialising in the
development of software applications for production and engineering management
companies. However, the management team of iResearch has some concerns over
the project and whether a proposal should be submitted.
As iResearch will be competing with a single rival firm for the contract, there is a 50-
50 chance of being awarded the contract. ACME has specified that the software
application could be developed for either a web-based platform or for
a mobile platform. Recognising this, iResearch is considering both platforms within
the project. A meeting is arranged between iResearch management and engineers to
discuss the project.
In the meeting iResearch engineers outline four possible software packages. These
software packages could be applied across both the web-based or mobile platforms.
The engineers highlight that both the web-based and mobile platforms have their own
associated costs. Web-based software packages have a development cost of
£24,000. Mobile platforms are less demanding and have a lower cost of £19,000.
Once a platform is selected (Web-based or Mobile), only this platform can be used
within the project. Following a review of the specification within the invitation to
tender from ACME, the iResearch engineers are also concerned that they may not

be able to develop a working software package. As a result each software package
has its own estimated likelihood of success. Within the meeting iResearch engineers
present the four possible software packages for the project.
The first package is Software A. Using this software package the engineers are
100% certain that they will be able to develop a suitable software application for
either a web-based or mobile platforms. The software package is based on existing
iResearch software that could be adapted for the ACME project. However, given the
programming and computer storage required, Software A has a high development
cost of £145,000 associated with it.
The second software package is Software B. This software package has lower
development costs but the likelihood of success for both platforms is also lower. The
development of Software B will cost £80,000. For the web-based platform the
iResearch engineers estimate that there is a 65% chance that the software will
function as intended. Across the mobile platform there is a 45% chance that the
software will operate correctly.
The third software package is Software C which has a higher development costs
associated with it. Software C will cost £102,000 in development. Using either the
web-based platform or the mobile platform there is a 75% chance that the software
will function without issue.
The final software package is Software D. This software package has a development
cost of £92,000. Using the web-based platform, the iResearch engineers estimate
that there is a 45% chance of success and a 65% chance of success across the
mobile platform.
iResearch must decide whether to prepare a proposal for ACME. If the proposal is
accepted, in order to maximise potential profit, iResearch must select the option that
offers the best possible return. iResearch must decide which platform (web-
based or mobile) and software package (A, B, C or D) is the most suitable for the
project. If the proposal is accepted by ACME, iResearch must deliver a working
software package. iResearch can only work on one software package at a time and
given the time and financial constraints of the project, engineers can only develop
two software packages. This means that if a software package fails, the second
choice must be Software A as this package has a guaranteed chance of success
across both platforms. In addition, once a platform is selected, that platform must be
used. This means for example, if the mobile platform is used and Software B is
selected as the most suitable option but fails, IResearch will have to use the mobile
platform for Software A within the project. However, this will reduce the potential
return for the project given the additional development costs associated with
Software A.

Within the project, there is a moderate cost associated with the development of the
proposal. iResearch believes it will cost £10,000 to develop the proposal for ACME if
they decide to prepare a proposal. If iResearch is awarded the contract they will
receive an immediate payment of £500,000 from ACME to develop the software
package. Given this information, iResearch has decided to develop a decision tree to
review their options.