Management Under Uncertainty: Reflective Essay Report - University

This report delves into the complexities of management under uncertainty, particularly focusing on the impact of overconfidence within teams and leadership structures. The report begins with a reflective essay exploring the concept of overconfidence and its potential challenges in a working environment, using Fisher's theory of decision emergence and functional perspectives to analyze group dynamics. It examines the importance of managing overconfident individuals, offering recommendations for mitigating disruptions and fostering effective communication. The second part of the report extends the analysis to CEO overconfidence, considering rational decision-making theories and the functional perspectives of team roles. The report provides a comprehensive overview of the topic, offering practical insights and strategies for managing overconfidence and promoting effective decision-making in uncertain environments, drawing on experiences and observations from group activities and research.

Running head: MANAGEMENT UNDER UNCERTAINTY
Management under Uncertainty
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Table of Contents
A. Reflective Essay:.........................................................................................................................3
1. Introduction:........................................................................................................................4
2. Analysis:..............................................................................................................................5
3. Critical Discussion:..............................................................................................................7
4. Recommendations:..............................................................................................................8
B. Reflective Essay:.........................................................................................................................9
1. Introduction:........................................................................................................................9
2. Analysis:..............................................................................................................................9
3. Critical Discussion:............................................................................................................11
4. Recommendations:............................................................................................................12

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A. Reflective Essay:
1. Introduction:
Overconfidence has to do with the presupposition and unnecessary consideration in the
abilities of one. Certain people are gifted with several talents along with the abilities; it is
generally serving the people in trying and toning down on the ways they expose these to some
others as people might be very judgmental. Therefore, overconfidence possesses cocksure
mentality that is desirable in the current society.
Annotated Bibliography was the theme of the group activity and we came up with the
idea of analyzing the managerial overconfidence and the ways it can create challenges within the
working environment. From a very tender age, I have heard that confidence is good but
overconfidence might lead to jeopardize or hamper the working environment. I really detest the
egotistical individuals as they possess the mentality of knowing-it-all and having a greater
disregard about the opinions of the other people along with the contributions in the regular
events of our lives. In this way most of the people generally shun away from these kind of
individuals as they are likely to be egocentric and self-centered.
Managing overconfidence people within team is a challenging job. It is about putting the
right people in right job and control the people who might at times jeopardize the situation with
their level of overexcitement and overconfidence (Kiyotaki & Miyakawa, 2016). It was decided
who would be doing what like filtering of the articles, selecting one appropriate, analyzing and
initiating a report for the same. Our topic was managing overconfidence sow e decided to keep
this as the main agenda of our team too, to have a feel of what it takes to deal such situations as
we have one or two people who does possess overconfidence in them. It is interesting that people

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having overconfidence will never accept it themselves that they are overconfident about
something. They would try and impose their suggestions and decisions on others as they think
they know better than the others present. This would take into account two theories which would
enable us in better understanding the ways of managing overconfidence like the Fisher’s Theory
and Functional perspective. The theories that would be dealt with were mentioned after
concerning the members of the team.
2. Analysis:
a. Fisher’s Theory:
One of the important theories that come to mind in the segment of group decision making
is Fisher’s theory of decision emergence. This theory of decision emergence takes in four phases
that a group generally goes through in the process of decision making. As per Fisher the
allotment of various tasks along with the decision making modifications a team and when being
managed in booming manner, it makes the team stronger (Hsu, Novoselov & Wang, 2014). In a
team there generally exist individuals having different mindset and different level of confidence.
The first phase within this theory is the orientation phase. It is the time when the team
members ascertain relationships but also contains tensions. Effective level of communication is
significant within this phase but it is also intricate because of the fact that the team members
might know each other in trusting one another well enough. This happens within organizations
too where groups are formed, members are brought in but trust is something that is developed
over a period of time. This happened with this team too. We met; we came to know about each
other and the kind of personality we are and the ways things are going to pan out when we sit

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down for the serious business. The way we talk, the way we communicate we each other brings
about the level of confidence and attitude we possess.
Next is the conflict phase where new ideas fly like anything. This is the phase where new
ideas are being discussed and there might exist significant tension as the proposers along with
the champions of the unconventional advancement intermingle. Is there exists a natural order
within the team emerging, then a stronger team can result. We involved everybody in this, as we
needed the maximum number of ideas so that we had options in filtering one that the other
groups might not think of and we end up analyzing something that is unique and important from
the perspective of the organization and ‘Managing Overconfidence’ is one such topic.
The next phase is the stage of emergence, where the result of the conflict takes into
appearance. During this phase some of the people require to alleviate their situation that should
not seem dominating. One might be good in something and another might be average, as it is a
group activity people within the team should put the interests of the team above the personal
goals (Tenney, Poole & Diener, 2016). People should help each other within a team.
The final phase is the reinforcement chapter where all the members required committing
to the plans and the objectives, whether they consent with them personally. We agreed to the
plan we created involving everybody and initiated the process.
b. Functional Perspective:
Hirokawa and Gouran were convinced with the idea that group interaction brings about
positive effect on the final outcome. This prediction takes into account the assumptions which
the members of the group care about the concern stated to be sensibly intelligent, facing a task
that is challenging, calling for fresh ideas and precise thinking (Hilary et al., 2016). If the group

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fails in satisfying the requirement of the task, it is in all probability that the personal prejudice
would be driving the choice instead of the reason. There should not be any confusion related to
the person who is leading the group or taking the calls in case of emergency.
3. Critical Discussion:
It is important to deal with people within the team who are overconfident and it is
important to understand the kind of overconfidence one is dealing with within the team.
Sometimes these overconfident people fly too high and being a member of the team it is
important in bringing them back. It is important to let them know that that nobody is perfect in
the world. The model of bounded rationality would take in admitting the fact that the rational
manager or the group leader does not possess the absolute information along with the optimal
choices that are not always needed. The rational behavior of the humans is being shaped by the
cutters whose both the blades are the construction of the environments of task and the
computational potentials of the actor. Bounded rationality is faceted by the activities of
satisficing and searching. We had lot of options while searching for the articles to evaluate and
analyze the things present.
The searching process needs to be made easier through the detection of the regularities in
the environment of the task. It is important for the main members of the group leader in assessing
the alternatives before making the final call on the activity. Overconfident members’ needs to be
talked with frankly when coming up with plans with even the overconfident appreciating the
sounding board and one if able to provide that and illustrate what the team is looking for, one is
likely to make them questions their own decisions (Lazear, 2016). It is important for the team
members in keeping their options and alternatives open while dealing with the overconfident
members.

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If one of the associates is stated to be overconfident, it sometimes becomes frustrating to
encounter the same on regular basis, but members surely can deal with this is through avoiding
of the same. Overconfident members would give much emphasis on the others to take up their
ideas and suggestions, though it is important for the other team members to make them
understand that they cannot be right all the time and that everyone should be heard proper
justification is required before taking up on any task.
4. Recommendations:
It is important to deal with people in the team who are of overconfident nature which has
been the agenda, as it jeopardizes the overall situation most of the time. This research that has
been taken into consideration was restricted in many senses. This was the first time we as a
group indulged in such decision making activity and there were bound to be some mistakes
through which we have learnt not to repeat them in the near future. Letting a team down for the
individual conflict and objectives is not what is required for teams indulged in project work,
especially when we ourselves are doing a research on the papers related to managing
overconfidence. Overconfidence is something that if not controlled or avoided might bring about
conflict among the team members jeopardizing the overall work process. It is important on the
part of the managers or the team leaders to keep the interactions brief with the ones oozing with
overconfidence and which would ensure minimal disruption in both life and work.
It is also important in showing empathy for forming a bridge with an employee. This
would help in communicating in more efficient manner that there is an issue and he/she requires
working on the displayed attitude at the place of work. It has been found during this task that
overconfident team members at times engage in discussions of needless nature and prolonging
the time of the meeting. When we rejected a common topic that was suggested by one of our

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overconfident member he was adamant on why we were not taking up that topic and might end
up having issues later on. It is important not to conciliate on the timings of the meetings and
staying calm in making sure the deliverables remain on track.
B. Reflective Essay:
1. Introduction:
With the first article done and dusted, it was time for the second one with more filtering
required on the same topic. The group is more settled under the present circumstances and group
members know well what to expect from whom. Overconfident members have been curbed
down a bit though such traits are hard to resist. At times they become over enthusiastic on certain
things that lead to more confusion and jeopardization of the overall work. Bringing everybody
together and going along with the same process should not have created any confusion and
commotion, but with one or two overconfident members in the kitty things were bound to get
messy (Hoffman & Burks, 2017). Roles were reversed so that everyone within the team felt
themselves to be an integral part of the team.
For the second article we thought of going for the ‘Managing of CEO Overconfidence’ as
it was important to understand and feel that overconfidence can come from any part of the
management and situations might be different for different people depending on the position and
level it is coming from. It was important for us as a team to understand even the big bosses can
have overconfidence which at times might create challenging situation for the whole group. The
theories taken into account for this reflection is the rational decision making where alternatives
are given importance like we did while evaluating the various work process of the group task

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along with the functional perspectives of the team that s significant while clearing out the roles
of every team member before the task so that there is no confusion.
2. Analysis:
There are certain theories related to decision making but in this part we thought of stating
the rationality in decision making that is said to be effective in the process of making decision
that must be rational (Navis & Ozbek, 2017). However, it was important for us to understand the
true meaning of rationality. As a group were we being rational with our approach. We found out
that the true meaning of rationality was in making an attempt in reaching the goals of the group
or the organization in systematic manner. Each member within the team should have relevant
information about the topic we are dealing and of the roles of each of the team member needs to
be clear so that there should not be any conflict of roles. People who have been deciding
rationally are the ones who reach their goals in the most systematic of manners. We were trying
for the same. We were very much on course for systematic thinking so that there does not arise
any sort of conflict within the team members that might dampen the spirits and endangers the
overall process of the work process.
Rational Decision making
The rationality of decision making is generally based on the 4 stages or steps in making
the rational decision which are stated to be gaining relevant information, assessing the same
along with evaluating and making choices (Hsieh, Bedard & Johnstone, 2014). There exists two
steps that requires following by either the individuals or the groups while making rational
decision making which are:

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a. Searching for the alternatives: Given the fact that we knew what our objectives are, the first
step in the process of decision making should be searching for the alternatives (Tsai et al., 2017).
Searching for the alternatives is mainly been based on the concept of restrictive factor. The
principle of the restrictive factor is in identifying and overcoming the factors that stand critically
in the direction of goals, like we had in managing the overconfident nature of people that might
have resulted in team conflict and jeopardized the overall work process of the group activity
(Ancarani, Di Mauro & D’Urso, 2016). As a team and also an individual it is important to go for
the best course of action.
b. Evaluation of the alternatives: The next step in the process of decision making is in evaluating
and picking one that would be contributing best to the goals of the group or the organization.
While selecting the articles for the group activity work we were searching for all the best
alternatives that we could go for incase we land ourselves into trouble while going for assessing
of the articles (Libby & Rennekamp, 2016).
Functional Perspectives:
We did discuss on this while writing the first reflective part and decided on mentioning
the same again in this part too. This task was challenging for the purpose that the topic was bit
new to us; we came together for the first time and had to manage different personalities down the
course of action. Confusion should not exist within the team for attaining the result in better
manner. Every member’s role within the team should be clear so that there is no confusion at the
end of the day on who is doing what.

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3. Critical Discussion:
It is key in dealing with people having overconfidence; something that I have noticed
does not lessen within a course of time. Sometimes these people find it difficult in understanding
the things going around them and that they need to control themselves for the betterment of
others. They cannot be perfect all the time, and that is what we decided on imposing over them
before they could on us with their ideas and suggestions.
We have dealt with the team members showing signs of overconfidence before to when
we came together for the first time. Things have changed a bit, they have controlled their
emotions to a greater extent and things have started becoming easier for the group. I understood
it was about time we look for better results and overcome the challenges we had as a team and
motivate ourselves to surpass the others. We have tried and had lot of communication with them
and have been stern on the things they require to do and that what are the expectations from
them.
Atleast one of the team members understood what the team requires out of him and
curbed down his emotions a great deal like in the first meeting he was jumping around,
confronting to what others were saying and always wanting to impose their ideas and sayings on
the others even if they would not like whatever they have to say.
4. Recommendations:
Under no circumstances is it feasible in letting the team down through regular conflicts
among the team members if they fail to manage overconfidence. Moreover, we had to show
some sense and maturity in dealing with time and members for the fact we were researching on a
paper that did ask about managing of the overconfidence nature of individuals at workplace. We

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have implemented in keeping things easy and brief while dealing with the overconfident
members and it did work a great deal. We were not allowing any fake discussions or illegal talks
with the overconfident employees because they seem to thrive on all those sort of things. We
found these overconfident ones having trouble in taking rejections and that is when they seem to
go out of control. We curbed that as well through regular meetings and assigning them things
they are best at.

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References:
Ancarani, A., Di Mauro, C., & D’Urso, D. (2016). Measuring overconfidence in inventory
management decisions. Journal of Purchasing and Supply Management, 22(3), 171-180.
Hoffman, M., & Burks, S. V. (2017). Worker Overconfidence: Field Evidence and Implications
for Employee Turnover and Returns from Training (No. w23240). National Bureau of
Economic Research.
Hsieh, T. S., Bedard, J. C., & Johnstone, K. M. (2014). CEO Overconfidence and Earnings
Management.
Kiyotaki, F., & Miyakawa, T. (2016). Delaying promotion to persuade overconfident employees.
Lazear, E. P. (2016). Overconfidence and Occupational Choice (No. w21921). National Bureau
of Economic Research.
Libby, R., & Rennekamp, K. M. (2016). Experienced financial managers' views of the
relationships among self-serving attribution bias, overconfidence, and the issuance of
management forecasts: A replication. Journal of Financial Reporting, 1(1), 131-136.
Navis, C., & Ozbek, O. V. (2017). Why Context Matters: Overconfidence, Narcissism, and the
Role of Objective Uncertainty in Entrepreneurship. Academy of Management
Review, 42(1), 148-153.
Ou, A. Y., Tsui, A. S., Kinicki, A. J., Waldman, D. A., Xiao, Z., & Song, L. J. (2014). Humble
chief executive officers’ connections to top management team integration and middle
managers’ responses. Administrative Science Quarterly, 59(1), 34-72.

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Tenney, E. R., Poole, J. M., & Diener, E. (2016). Does positivity enhance work performance?:
Why, when, and what we don’t know. Research in Organizational Behavior, 36, 27-46.
Tsai, F. S., Lin, C. H., Lin, J. L., Lu, I. P., & Nugroho, A. (2017). Generational diversity,
overconfidence and decision-making in family business: A knowledge heterogeneity
perspective. Asia Pacific Management Review.