BUMGT 5980 - Managerial Decision Making: Overconfidence in Surgery

This report examines the potential role of overconfidence in surgeons' estimations within the context of managerial decision-making. It begins by defining overconfidence and its influence on judgment, highlighting the cognitive biases that can lead to errors in medical decision-making. The report then explores the concepts of over-precision, overestimation, and overplacement, illustrating how these biases can affect a surgeon's assessment of a situation. A case study involving the planning of a medical procedure for the removal of a brain tumor is presented to demonstrate how overconfidence can impact decision-making. The report also outlines the interrelated steps for successful treatment and discusses the factors that contribute to risk in the operating room. References to relevant research are included to support the analysis. This report aims to provide insights into the challenges of decision making under uncertainty and the importance of recognizing and mitigating cognitive biases in the medical field.

MANAGERIAL DECISION MAKING
Discuss the potential role of overconfidence in the
surgeon’s reported
estimations

INTRODUCTION
 Overconfidence can be a reason for indicative mistake in field of medicine.
 Doctors all in all overlook improve the probability of wrong conclusion as their
decision .
 It center around the propensity to arrogance dependent on both natural and
fundamentally fortified elements.

 As Confidence is a intellectual predisposition that hampers settling on proper
choices
 The data stays in your Mind impact your judgment.
OVERCONFIDENCE

 Making good decisions requires confidence in one’s ability and judgement
 Over precision
 Overestimation
 Over placement.
GOOD DECISIONS

OVER PRECISION
 It is excessive faith that you know truth
 Reason for this:
 Lack of apt knowledge
 Lack of expert experience
 Ignoring the facts and facts based on different evidence

 Refusal of having different opinion
 Feedback especially after taking the decision and proceed with the process
 Excessively certain that their determine estimating can be negative in their future
values.
INFLUENCE OF OVER PRECISION AND OVERCONFIDENCE

 Common perception:
 Thoughtful about the individual to perform better in something that the actual
situation is
 Thinking that every aspect is in control
 Avoiding fallacy about being well-organized and overrating their competence
levels.
OVER ESTIMATION

 Self-enhancement – Positively as opposed to accurately
 Hopefulness
 Self-defense
THE REALITY OF OVER-ESTIMATION

 Easy tasks but hard decision
 Surgeons sure on the hard decisions
 It increases the wrong tendency
 Increase the cost with the surgery
WHY OVER PLACEMENT?

 Planning for medical procedure for expulsion of a kind cerebrum tumor.
 While in transit to the working theater, the attendant says "good karma!
 A couple of patients even appear to be practically ordinary sooner or later down
the track."
THE CASE STUDY

 Considering the case, the options include
 Desire for Patients’ happiness
 work in higher occupations
 Request greater expense to do the task.
 overestimate her relative aptitudes
ESTIMATION OF CASE STUDY WITH OVER CONFIDENCE

 70% affect on mental function within the next ten years.
 40% chance of affecting your mental after the operation
OPTIONS OF DECISION MAKING IN THIS SITUATION

 Making the right finding at the start.
 Specific emergency clinic or locally situated.
 Deciding the most fitting treatment.
 Best possible measurements of drug or the right intercession.
 Taking the endorsed drug or following the treatment plan.
INTERRELATED STEPS FOR SUCCESSFUL TREATMENT

There are 5 interrelated segments of danger circumstances for medicinal groups
working in the OR
 intricacy
 over-burden/underload
 deficient individual preparing
 insufficient preparing of medical groups
 carelessness of specialists.
HIT ARE A HELP TO HUMANKIND

REFERENCES
 Makridakis, S., Kirkham, R., Wakefield, A., Papadaki, M., Kirkham, J., & Long, L. (2019).
Forecasting, uncertainty and risk; perspectives on clinical decision-making in preventive
and curative medicine. International Journal of Forecasting, 35(2), 659-666.
 Howard, J. (2019). Overconfidence Bias. In Cognitive Errors and Diagnostic Mistakes (pp.
351-367). Springer, Cham.
 Brennan, M., Puri, S., Ozrazgat-Baslanti, T., Feng, Z., Ruppert, M., Hashemighouchani, H., ...
& Bihorac, A. (2019). Comparing clinical judgment with the MySurgeryRisk algorithm for
preoperative risk assessment: A pilot usability study. Surgery.