Critical Assessment of Offender Profiling Effectiveness and Accuracy

This report critically assesses the effectiveness and accuracy of offender profiling, a practice gaining public awareness despite professional ignorance. It explores various profiling approaches, including Crime Scene Analysis, Investigative Psychology, and Geographic Profiling, detailing their methodologies and assumptions. The report evaluates the effectiveness of offender profiling in suspect limitation and criminal apprehension, acknowledging both its strengths and shortcomings, such as ethical issues and lack of standardized guidelines. It presents critiques of offender profiling, highlighting the absence of strong theoretical frameworks and empirical techniques, while also considering the usefulness of these methods and the arguments for and against their adoption. The report concludes that while offender profiling shows potential, it currently lacks sufficient evidence to compel widespread acceptance, emphasizing the need for further research and public discernment.

INTRODUCTION TO CRIMINOLOGY AND CRIMINAL JUSTICE
INTRODUCTION TO CRIMINOLOGY AND CRIMINAL JUSTICE
Name of Student
Name of University
Author Note

1INTRODUCTION TO CRIMINOLOGY AND CRIMINAL JUSTICE
Offender profiling
In this review a critical assessment of the effectiveness and accuracy of the offender
profiling is done. Although majority of people are unaware of the workings of offender profiling
yet it can be seen to becoming a part of the consciousness of the public. Even among the
professional circles this ignorance can be seen to be prevailing (Almond, Alison &Porter, 2007).
There are various myths generated by the fascination of the public with the widespread ignorance
for the subject. These myths can be seen to be distracting attention away from certain significant
and intellectually challenged questions that are important for the investigation of the criminal
behavior such as the assessments of the validity and quality of the information of the decisions
and actions of the police, assessment of the possibilities for the detection of deception and the
consistency of the behavior of a criminal and the crucial difference between the offenders
(Goodwill & Alison, 2007). The inferring of an offender’s characteristics with the actions
present in a crime scene is commonly seen to be associated with ‘offender profiling’. Even
though there are evidences that suggest that there is more to the current methods of profiling than
subjective opinion yet the notion of a profiler who has been able to be successful in a case where
the police have failed is found to be a myth (Canter & Alison, 2018).
In the previous years with the development of the criminal profiling three approaches of
the profiling have been seen to be developed (Bennell, et al., 2008). These three approaches are
Crime Scene Analysis, Investigative Psychology and Geographic Profiling. The crime scene
analysis approach by the FBI can be seen to be a six step process that is profiling of the evidence
at the scene of the crime, processing of decisions of the arrangement of the evidence for the

2INTRODUCTION TO CRIMINOLOGY AND CRIMINAL JUSTICE
identification of patterns and commonalities, assessment of the construction of the crime and
determination of the other aspects of the role of the criminal, profiling of the previous analyzes
of the criminal for the definition of the characteristics of the criminal, investigating for the
utilization of the profile for narrowing down the suspect pool and search areas, apprehension of
the identification, investigation, interview, and depending on evidences the arrest of the suspect.
The investigative Psychology approach of the offender profiling was developed by
David Canter for the utilization of the psychological concepts for the investigation techniques are
seen to be incorporated for the development of criminal profiling. Investigative psychology can
be seen to be based on five factor model. The first factor of the investigative psychology is the
interpersonal coherence and the assumption of the symbolization or characterization by the
victim about the association or link between the offender and the victim. The second factor can
be seen to be providing clues regarding the details of the offender with significance of place,
time and the locations of the crime. The third factor can be described as the identification of the
possible suspects based on categories and classifications of the offenders. The fourth factor
considers the probability of the offender committing similar crimes in the past. The fifth and last
factor of the investigative psychology is the awareness of the offender about the crime scene
analysis and other techniques of investigation.
Geographic profiling can be defined as the method of investigation that determines the
probable areas of the crime of the offenders. On developing geographic profiling of the offenders
a few assumptions are made for criminal behavior for underlying attempt for drawing inference
about the location of the offenders. The first assumption in geographic profiling is that crimes
have specific locations. The issue of locatedness becomes complicated if there are multiple
locations associated with a given crime or the crime is seen to be existing in a virtual space. The

3INTRODUCTION TO CRIMINOLOGY AND CRIMINAL JUSTICE
second fundamental assumption is that the criminal locations are not random. The third
assumption for geographic profiling is centrality. To understand how people are acting on their
surroundings a great deal of influence is needed to be exerted over the likeliness of their journey.
The fourth assumption in the offender’s geographic profiling is linking crimes. A single crime
can be applying towards multiple principles of geographical profiling. Although the process of
comparative analysis of cases is a crucial basis for the development of geographic profiling but
any bias in offence sample consideration would likely be distorting or misleading the
conclusions drawn from that data. The final assumption of the geographical profiling is the
caution that is needed to be emphasizing for the detection and analysis of crimes. It is a well
known fact that the geographical profiling is wholly and completely based on the developments
of principles that are being empirically tested (Bennell, Taylor, & Snook, 2007).
Effectiveness of Offender Profiling
For the limitation of suspects and resulting apprehension of criminals the criminal
profiling is used for providing a framework of process-thinking that is seen to be supported by
research and data enabling the utilization of characteristics and patterns of the crime and criminal
by the investigators. The accuracy and reliability of the process and outcome of the criminal
profiling can be seen to be impacting on the timing and the probability of an arrest or various
other resolutions, the possibility of arresting someone wrongfully, the costs and resources of the
investigation and other relevant ethical issues for the proper functioning of the profiling
(Goodwill, Alison & Beech, 2009). These ethical issues are the lack of uniform and standard
guidelines and practices, the lack of confidentiality and information sharing, differences in
mandating of the activities in profiling, lack of training for the people profiling the offenders and

4INTRODUCTION TO CRIMINOLOGY AND CRIMINAL JUSTICE
lack of measurements of competency that can be acceptable. Although there are certain
shortcomings of the process of the offender profiling yet no question can be raised about the
development of the scientific approach of the offender profiling. By maintaining the process of
multidisciplinary patterns of analyzing complex behavior and increasing the high standard of
availability of education and expansion of the base of scientific researches a critical mass is seen
to be approaching fast by research validity and knowledge pool.
In a survey conducted in 1994 among 152 police psychologists it was seen that almost
70% of the psychologists were not comfortable with the offender profiling and has been
questioning the usefulness and validity of the same. In another study conducted on 1995 less than
1/4th of the police officers were of the perception that profiling offenders would be of any
assistance to the case and in less than 1/5th of occasions the offender profiling could be seen to be
opening any new enquiry line. In a recent small scale study conducted by Alison, Smith,
Eastman and Rainbow it was revealed that most predictions that have been contained in the
profile are unverified and even ambiguous. It was further established that out of all the
predictions that were made 24% were found to be ambiguous and 55% were found out to be
unverified of the fact whether the offenders were actually caught.
Critiques of offender profiling
In a recent literature review conducted that has covered the data of almost last three
decades it was revealed that in majority of the articles on the subject of offender profiling were
in lack of any theoretical framework for the offender profiling process and there were a very few
articles found that would be seen to be utilizing the empirical techniques on multivariate research
(Dowden, Bennell, & Bloomfield, 2007). In a meta analysis conducted it was pointed out

5INTRODUCTION TO CRIMINOLOGY AND CRIMINAL JUSTICE
towards 130 articles that used the ‘plethora of common sense’ opposed to the scientific evidences
(Snook et al., 2007). There are very few studies that can be seen to be evaluating the offender
profiling in a quantitative approach and a fewer studies looking for methods of contemporary
origin. Most of these studies are however done in a relatively inconclusive way where in one
hand there were investigators accepting that in solving case criminal profiling can be of great
help on the other hand there were officers believing in the limitations of the process of offender
profiling and even believed in the potentiality of the profiling to be misleading towards an
investigation (Haines et al., 2007). In several studies there can be seen that there had been greater
number of correct predictions produced by the profilers who are self proclaimed than that of
those produced by investigators, because in the process of profiling the skills for critical thinking
matter more than the general investigative experience (Gogan, 2007). On the other hand in
another study it was found that there is no significant relation between the accuracy of offender
profiling and the ability of critically thinking (Bennell et al., 2008).
Usefulness of offender profiling
There can be found a fierce rivalry between the main criminal profiling methods and the
principle philosophies of the deductive and inductive investigations. Even the opponents in the
offender profiling can be seen to be voraciously skeptic about the validity and the usefulness of
the techniques used in the profiling. The biggest liability of the offender profiling as described by
the critics is its unreliability and inaccuracy of the information that can be seen to be creating
questions about the usefulness of it and to be putting disrepute among the professionals. It has
been claimed by experts that the offender profiling has not been based on theories that are
supported empirically and instead are based on false typologies creating for the inappropriate

6INTRODUCTION TO CRIMINOLOGY AND CRIMINAL JUSTICE
reliability of the profiles on predictions (Snook et al., 2008). The issues arising out of those can
be causing certain ethical and practical problems like derailing of an investigation and
unnecessary delays, creation of a bias to wrong suspects or geographical locations, focusing on
the wrong features of the crime or the offender and harassment or arrest of wrong suspect on the
basis of an inappropriate profile.
In conclusion it can be said that the many of the literature used in this study have been
contradictory towards each other, however this contradiction can be seen to be healthy for the
methods and disciplines used for the evaluation of the development of the offenders profiling.
Some of the literature used here can be seen to be using systematic approaches while some others
are seen to be using a more theoretical and narrative approach. Yet somehow most of the
approaches can be found to be reaching the same conclusion even with limitations in the research
methodologies. The offender profiling has a tendency to be evolving in the future into something
more useful than it is now. Even though its appeal can be seen to be still in potential however at
present there is a lack of enough evidence for supporting offender profiling to compel acceptance
of police and public in a large scale. There are some principles of the offender profile that have
been outdated while other principles like the behavioral science and empirical psychology have
not ceased to be existing as much as the scrutiny and the criticism would not cease. There are
many suggestions regarding the role of the public in shaping the profiling by discerning the
perception and adoption of wisdom that has been accepted. However there might arise certain
arguments against the necessity of the discernment and education of the public in this matter yet
it is hoped the offender profiling process could be able to prove itself by research of large scale
ideography.

7INTRODUCTION TO CRIMINOLOGY AND CRIMINAL JUSTICE
Reference
Alison, L. J., Smith, M, D., Eastman O. and Rainbow, L. Toulmin’s Philosophy of argument and
its relevance to offender profiling, Psychology, Crime and Law
Almond, L., Alison, L. J.,& Porter, L. E. (2007). An evaluation and comparison of claims made
in behavioral investigative advice reports compiled by the National Policing
Improvement Agency in the United Kingdom. Journal of Investigative Psychology and
Offender Profiling
Bennell, C., Corey, S., Taylor, A., & Ecker, J. (2008). What skills are required for effective
offender profiling? An examination of the relationship between critical thinking ability
and profile accuracy. Psychology, Crime and Law
Bennell, C., Taylor, P., & Snook, B. (2007). Clinical versus actuarial geographic profiling
strategies: A review of the research. Police Practice and Research
Canter, D., & Alison, L. (2018). Profiling in policy and practice. Routledge.
Dowden, C., Bennell, C., & Bloomfield, S. (2007). Advances in offender profiling: A systematic
review of the profiling literature published over the past three decades. Journal of Police
and Criminal Psychology
Gogan, D. (2007). Investigative experience and profile accuracy: A replication study. In R.
Kocsis (Ed.), Criminal profiling: International theory, research, and practice

8INTRODUCTION TO CRIMINOLOGY AND CRIMINAL JUSTICE
Goodwill, A. M., & Alison, L. J. (2007). When is profiling possible? Offence planning and
aggression as moderators in predicting offender age from victim age in stranger rape.
Behavioral Sciences and the Law
Goodwill, A. M., Alison, L. J.,&Beech, A. (2009). What works in offender profiling? A
comparison of typological, thematic, and multivariate models. Behavioral Sciences and
the Law
Snook, B., Cullen, R. M., Bennell, C., Taylor, P. J.,&Gendreau, P. (2008). The criminal profiling
illusion: What’s behind the smoke and mirrors? Criminal Justice and Behavior
Snook, B., Eastwood, J., Gendreau, P., Goggin, C., & Cullen, R. M. (2007). Taking stock of
criminal profiling: A narrative review and meta-analysis. Criminal Justice and Behavior
Snook, B., Haines, A., Taylor, P., & Bennell, C. (2007). Criminal profiling belief and use: A
study of Canadian police officer opinion. Canadian Journal of Police and Security
Services