MGT602 Group Report: Decision-Making for Tokyo Olympic Games 2021

This report analyzes the challenges and decisions surrounding the Tokyo Olympic Games 2021, which were significantly impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic. It examines the health risks to athletes, staff, and volunteers, and the decision-making processes of the Japanese government and the International Olympic Committee (IOC). The report discusses the use of rational decision-making models to address issues like managing international visitors, controlling potential outbreaks, and protecting the local population. It explores alternative approaches, such as restricting visitors and considering event cancellation, while evaluating the economic and health-related consequences of each. The report concludes with recommendations for mitigating risks and ensuring the safety of all involved, emphasizing the importance of prioritizing public health and safety during the event. The report also highlights the slow vaccination process in Japan and the potential for outbreaks if the Olympics were to continue. The report also covers the rational decision making model and how it was used to define the problem, collect data, establish objectives, generate alternatives and select the best alternative for the given situation. The report also discusses the loss the event had caused to Japan.

MGT602, Group Assignment
Introduction
Olympic Games is an international multi-sport event that occurs every 4 years in different host city
with the decision of International Olympic Committee (IOC). The latest Olympic event was scheduled
to happen in 2020 , Tokyo being nominated as host city which was however been postponed due to
unfavourable situation caused by COVID-19. Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games has been scheduled to
begin on 23rd of July and end at 08th of August 2021 , with featuring of 339 medal events, 33 sports
and 42 venues (Kano,2020).More than 10,000 athletes and 206 National Olympic Committees (NOC)
are expected to participate in 2021 Olympics; and this shows the need of health care service to
prevent spread of COVID -19 during the event.This report aims to analyse the COVID situation in
Tokyo and challenges faced by Japanese Government and International Olympic Commission in
making decisions to run revised Olympic games. The report will further discuss issues and the
decisions with some alternative approach. The report will evaluate the situation and provide some
recommendations to make the event successful and avoid possible consequences.
The key decision makers of the Olympic event are Japanese Government; Prime Minister of Japan
(Yoshihide Suya), Thomas Bach (President of International Olympic Committee and Seiko Hashimoto
(Games President ) in Japan.
Risk to Athletes of COVID infection
The Japanese government and the International Olympic Commissions (IOC) have several decisions
to make for the already postponed Tokyo 2021 Olympics and whether they go ahead, as the world
tries to navigate its way through a global pandemic.
Tokyo will host the Olympics Games this month. Where athletes will be flown in from every corner
of the globe to compete against one another.
Society has succumbed to the words ‘Corona Virus and Covid-19’ and realised the education and
importance of the health system for humans. Covid is a virus which is spread through contact.
Meaning that there is a clear risk that an outbreak could occur, and the Olympics could be deemed a
‘super spreader event’. The health risks for not only the athletes but also staff and volunteers are so
high, key stakeholders will need to use decision-making models to put all the correct risk mitigating
plans in place to prevent COVID-19 outbreaks and keeping the athletes safe. (Dalton, C.B.)
TIME magazine reported, in early 2021, that there is belief the risk of staging the Games might
outweigh the reward. An ex-athlete and a professor who studied the Olympics, Jules Boykoff, said
that "The decision to press ahead with the Tokyo Olympics in 2021 is truly a matter of life and
death," and that "We're talking about an optional sporting spectacle, not some essential service to
humanity, and when you throw public health into the mix, the calculus can become uncouth pretty
quick." With that being said it has helped my personal view and recommendations discussed in this
report.
For the Olympics to get the go ahead, the International Olympic Committee must review all risk
mitigation processes for the events staff, athletes, volunteers and media outlets to be as safe as
possible. According to Hellewell, he came up with a model that assesses how effective case isolation,
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and the contact tracing model is during a virus breakout. The model is simple as it is based on
different scenarios of transmission.
The difficult part in all of this for the Olympic Committee is the Covid situation is rapidly changing
every day. As seen in Appendix 1, the new daily cases in Tokyo have been constant throughout the
whole pandemic. With 3 clear viruses ‘waves’ and at its current point today, there looks to be a
steep incline where the city may be heading into its fourth wave with it rising dramatically each day.
Decisions have been made and communicated to the Olympic athletes that they are to supply their
own face coverings and are encouraged (but not required) to be vaccinated against Covid-19 and will
undergo testing at unspecified intervals after they arrive in Japan. Further to this vaccination
information there is also the sensitive issue around worldwide supply of the vaccination and human
rights. Pfizer and BioNTech have offered to donate vaccines for all Olympic athletes, but this offer
does not ensure that all athletes will receive vaccines before the Olympics. According to The IOC’s
playbook, “they are not built on scientifically rigorous risk assessment, and they fail to consider the
ways in which exposure occurs, the factors that contribute to exposure, and which participants may
be at highest risk. To be sure, most athletes are at low risk for serious health outcomes associated
with Covid-19.”
After taking all into account using the rational model, (see appendix 2), whereby I assessed the
problem that is the Olympic Games event being held during a pandemic. Then followed by
establishing the decision criteria and what is relevant to making the decision. During this step of the
rational decision-making model, it brought me to weigh up the criteria to make the correct priority in
the decision which is the health of many athletes and staff over a historic sporting event and
financial gains for television and media networks. Looking into alternative in the next step didn’t
take long, as mentioned above, the IOC stated there is no option to postpone the games again my
opinion that the Olympics be cancelled. The current risk to so many people does not outweigh the
reward of having the Olympic Games go ahead. As per the IOC report that the games cannot be
postponed due to the Winter Olympics next year, this has put that option to bed, so it leaves
cancelling the event as the only option. This is unfortunate as the history of the Olympics Games is
so important for so many people around the world and the time that athletes have dedicated is
always astounding, but the health risk is not worth it.
Managing international Visitors
One of the key issues of 2021 Tokyo Olympic event , managing international visitors has been a
major concern for Tokyo Government and International Olympic Committee.The safety of Athletes,
citizens of Japan and all the concerned departments is a key criteria to make any decisions for the
committee and it require an in depth research of current situation all around the world. The surge of
COVID cases in world has forced concerned departments to make a strict decision of restricting
international visitors for Tokyo Olympic Event and the department has decided to deduct number of
national visitors as well. The Tokyo Olympic event was expected to increase foreign tourism and
event construction investment with 920,000 visitors anticipated to participate in the event each
day ( Osada,Kurachi,Ojima,Miura, Kawamoto, 2021 ). However, it has now been crucial to restrict
visitors due to travel restriction and increasing COVID cases of several variant. According to Kiuchi,
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2021),As a result of Governments decision , ban on overseas visitor has already produced the loss of
150 bn Japanese currency which is expected to increase further.
The issue of managing international visitors is discussed with the rational decision model focused on
developing alternative and selecting best alternative for decision making process.
Step 1: Define Problem
The main decision problem for Tokyo government and IOC committee is to allow international
visitors to the event, and if allowed , necessary precautions to control the spread of virus.
Step 2:Data Collection
The collection of all necessary information related to number of cases, covid infected athletes ,
health services available is a key step to make decision.
Step 3:Objective & Goals
The main objective of the decision would be to ensure the safety of people living in Japan and
contain the virus to possible extent.
Step 4 :Generate Alternatives
The alternatives to decision of foreign visitor restriction could be allowing people to participate with
requirement of quarantine and COVID Test. However, the possibility of containing the virus and risk
associated with it is very limited. To decrease economic loss from visitor restriction, government can
allow foreign visitors with their covid injection job completed. Additionally,another initiative could
include allowing family members of athletes to visit the event with health safety check and
requirements. The risk and uncertainty of COVID spread remains in all the circumstances , which
requires for the best alternative selection.
Step 5: Select best alternative
The best alternative to suit the situation would be to postpone the event until the whole world is
vaccinated against the COVId-19. It is highly recommended that both Tokyo government and IOC
committee should reconsider the decision of allowing Olympic ; as there is the high risk of worsening
the COVID situation post event.
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MGT602, Group Assignment
Controlling Potential Outbreaks
Japan has already been struggling with two waves of covid-19, and there is every possible
chance of a rebound that can occur in the coming months. Apart from that, the vaccination process
of Japan has been very slow, which has led to a significant part of the population of the country who
hasn't gotten vaccinated yet (Tokyo Olympics may be cancelled if the covid-19 situation worsens:
official. 2021). This negligence can result in an increased risk of a potential outbreak. Organising the
Olympic 2021 in Tokyo would lead to further spreading of the virus, and if Global fans are allowed on
the venues, then that could lead to a worldwide epidemic putting a lot of lives at risk once more. For
this very reason, the Tokyo Olympics, which was supposed to take place in 2020, was postponed by
one year, but the situation has not gotten any better yet.
Fig 1: The first two waves of Covid 19 in Japan
The previous cancellation of the event has caused Japan to lose almost 40 billion US dollars.
In order to handle such a situation, a rational decision-making process should be adopted, which will
be helpful for identifying the various causes that might lead to a potential outbreak (model, 2017).
That helps in the identification of the various decision criteria for addressing the various solutions,
and once various alternative solutions are found, they are compared within themselves for finding
the most effective solution which can prevent a potential outbreak.
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Fig 2: Rational Decision Making Process
That is followed by the proper implementation of the solution for getting the desired result.
Tokyo has also witnessed the spreading of a highly contagious Delta variant of the covid-19 virus,
which can further spread the infection, making various officials and authorities reconsider their
decision to organise these events. The authorities have taken various major steps, and the Japanese
Government and many more that can be properly adopted might lead to reduced impact such as
preventing people from gathering across the street during triathlons or any search sports having
venues outside the stadium (Tokyo Olympics may be cancelled if the covid-19 situation worsens:
official. 2021). The Government is right now delivering the games in a very limited format, which will
be another helpful factor in controlling the outbreak. Proper health and hygiene measures and
wearing of masks and testing from time to time should be done, counselling everyone's health in
mind. The creation of an isolation bubble is mandatory for safeguarding the health of various
Olympic participants, and global fans should be completely banned from the venues.
Protecting the Local Population from infection
Japan is already battling fourth wave of COVID infections and has declared the state of emergency in
Tokyo as pert the latest news (Guardian,2021). This has tremendously put pressure on the medical
institutions of Japan. On the top of that, the Japanese government is adamant and insisting to
conduct the Olympics 2020 amid the fourth stage of Corona virus infections growing with upward
trend. However, the local Japanese government, medical institutions are against the decision of
government of hosting Olympics and prioritizing athletes for COVID control measures over their own
population (Kuhn, 2021). Moreover, the local population are anxious about the spread of COVID
infections, and more than 80% Japanese voted against the hosting of Olympics on a poll (Guardian,
2021).
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The greatest milestone for Japanese government is to prioritize and protect its own population if the
Olympic is hosted. This is a strategically demanding situation where analytical and intuitive
judgement is crucial. Moreover, the decision making body should refer well researched health
protective measures to conclude their decisions (Brinckmann, Grichnik,&Kapsa, 2010).Furthermore,
the financial factors and stakeholders interest’s also affect the decision.
In regards to the case of protecting local population, the government could follow standard
guidelines as suggested by World Health Organization (WHO). WHO has designed three foundational
blocks for Mass Gatherings in Sports and they are Risk Evaluation, Risk Mitigation and Risk
Communication during planning of the event. The risks associated with the spread of COVID among
the local population have to evaluated, proper mitigation measures are to be devised and
communicate the awareness to public in a planning phase of the Olympics. In order to aid in the
decision making process for the Olympics, the Japanese Government could use a rational decision
making model. The main goal of the government is to save both the local population and the
athletes if Olympic is carried out. In the current scenario, the important decision criteria for the
government are health of the public among other various factors like financial aspect (invested $15
billion), psychological impact to athletes and impact to various stakeholders. The government could
give weightage to each factor considering the significance of each decision criteria. In regards to
contain the spread of virus infection, the best way is to reduce the cluster of people and to use
proper medical guidelines. The government could ban all the spectators to reduce the number of
clusters (BBC,2021). In addition, the IOC could cut the number of officials attending the Olympics
prioritizing only people who are essential and official role. Medical experts had reiterated that it is
the least risky way to host the Olympics(Murakami, 2021). Other effective countermeasures for
COVID might be following guidelines for mask wearing, frequent testing, social distancing, and
maintaining of isolation bubbles. Takenaka(2021) have stated that the government is planning to
administer 80,000 number of daily COVID tests on athletes, coaches and games officials.
Another easy way of making a decision when various diverse stakeholders are present and several
choices are available at hand is a dot voting. In a poll conducted by Asahi Shimbun in regards to
Olympics, postpone or cancel and proceed, the public has drastically voted to postpone or cancel
with a value of 62 % as shown by the pie chart below.
62.0
0%
34.
00
% Postponeme
nt or
cancelled
Should
Proceed
Figure 1: Poll Results from postponement or cancel and should proceed
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MGT602, Group Assignment
In addition, the Japanese government should focus on standard well accepted guidelines and
practical method of controlling the infection rather than some theoretical approach. Vaccinating to
70,000 foreigners might be successful but social distancing issues might come into picture
(Wamsley,2021). In Japan, the local population is most vulnerable with a fact that 30% is elderly
population and the data reveals that the chance of rapid infections is high with an average of 3105
infections each day. The below 2 figures represent daily new infections and deaths due to COVID in
Japan.
Figure: Daily COVID infections and Daily death due to COVID (Source: Reuters: Covid-19 tracker)
Furthermore, Normile(2021) had reported that several thousands of people are participating in
Olympics at more than 40 different venues in and around of Tokyo, any single COVID spot could
exponentially increase the infection rate which might be even difficult to control.
Although the government has already made decision to proceed for Olympics, the government
should reconsider its decision bearing in mind that the game doesn’t worth the health of the local
population. Amid the 4th stage variant of COVID dramatically spreading, and COVID cases intensely
spreading, the Olympic should be given a no-go signal.
Team Decision Analysis
The group have used Nominal Group Technique (NGT) to come to a conclusion whether to proceed,
postpone or cancel the Olympic 2020. The group has conducted risk assessment on the impact of
Olympic to athletes, challenges to manage international visitors especially when Japan is dealing
with 4th stage of COVID, controlling potential COVID outbreak and protecting local population from
COVID infection. After assessing the risks associated with each of these challenges, the group have
followed four steps of NGT as suggested by Delbecq et al.(1975).
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MGT602, Group Assignment
Nominal Group Technique(NGT)
Surekha Sitaula Paul Stewart Raju Dharmeshkumar
Risks assessment
 Impracticality
associated with
mass isolation
 Risk and
uncertainty of
COVID remains in
all circumstances
 Olympic could
be deemed as
super spreader
event
 Not only
Athletes but it
could impact
whole Japan
 Risk of staging
the games might
outweigh the
reward
 Olympics might
be matter of life
and death
 Social
distancing
issue for
large
number of
people
 Local
people are
must
vulnerable
with 30%
elderly
population
 Japan
dealing
with 4th
stage of
COVID
with
average of
3105 each
day
 Tokyo has
experienced
highly
contagious
Delta variant of
COVID-19
 Vaccination
process of
Japan is very
slow and there
is risk of
potential
outbreak
 Chances of
worldwide
epidemic from
athletes
throughout the
world
Decision suggested
To postpone the event
until whole world
vaccinated
The Olympic games
could be the super
spreader event and the
health of many people
doesn’t outweigh the
reward of having
Olympics. The best
option considering the
health of the people is
to cancel the event
Single COVID spot
from 40 different
venues of Olympic
might
exponentially
increase the
infection rate. No
go signal for the
Olympic 2020.
 Chances of
Potential
outbreak
throughout the
world and the
virus infection
rate might be
unstoppable
Recommended
to either
postpone or
cancel the
Olympic
Postpone Cancel Postpone or
Cancel
Postpone or cancel
After the evaluation of the suggestions given by each member of the group, the group has decided
to suggest the Japanese government to reconsider the decision of hosting Olympic and either
postpone or cancel the event till the situation becomes normal.
Conclusion and Recommendations
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