Delphi Exercise: Estimating Likelihood of Volleyball Tournament Win

This project presents a Delphi exercise designed to estimate the probability of Team Gold Bachelor winning the volleyball sports tournament. The assignment involves three rounds of estimations and analysis. In the first round, the coordinator sends a letter to participants (Raymond, Pattrick, and Taylor) asking them to provide their likelihood estimate (ranging from 0% to 100%) of the team's win, along with supporting factors. Raymond estimates an 80% chance, citing the team's enthusiasm, while acknowledging their new entry as a potential setback. Pattrick estimates 50%, highlighting their new entry as a challenge but also an opportunity. Taylor estimates 40%, mentioning the lack of supporters and potential lack of confidence due to their first-time experience. The project aims to refine these estimates through subsequent rounds of discussion and feedback, which is the core of the Delphi method.

Running head: INTRODUCTION TO OPERATIONS MANAGEMENT
INTRODUCTION TO OPERATIONS MANAGEMENT
[Document subtitle]

INTRODUCTION TO OPERATIONS MANAGEMENT 1
Three-Round Delphi Exercise: First Round
Letter from the Coordinator (A Separate letter will be sent to each participant)
Hi Ramond/Pattrick/Taylor,
A favor is needed from you. As required by my college course, and I need to do a Delphi
decision exercise with Minimum three other participants. I’d like you to be one of them. Here’s
the description of the Project:
You are required to estimate the probability of a particular event happening. A likelihood is a
number ranging anywhere between 0% and 100%, where
0% = there’s no possibility of the event to happen (like the Sun rising in the West).
50% = there’s a fifty-fifty chance of it happening (like a coin coming up heads)
100% = it’s absolutely certain to happen (like the Sun rising in the East).
The event will be something you know about, care about, and have thought about, but don’t
necessarily have any expert knowledge about. Along with your probable estimate, please support
it with factors that may drive that event to happen. I’ll be collecting the same information from
two other people, sharing it with you, then asking you if you’d like to revise your estimate. This
will happen twice. Here’s what I’d like you to estimate.
Question: What is the likelihood of Team Gold Bachelor winning the Volleyball Sports in this
year’s Tournament?
That’s all! Could you please get that information to me in the next day or two?
Thanks a lot

INTRODUCTION TO OPERATIONS MANAGEMENT 2
First Round Responses
From Raymond: According to me, the team has an 80% chance. There are a lot of young-aged
players who have high enthusiasm to win the game. The main thing holding them back would be
their new entry to the tournament which may lead to less confidence in them.
From Pattrick: Only 50%. As they are new entry to the event. Though they are young and have
the charm to win but the already established names in the tournament can be a challenge to them.
However it is a brilliant chance to take away the fame from the renowned names and make a
place for themselves to become winning team at the very first go.
From Taylor: Only 40%. Team Gold Bachelors do not have enough supporters. They are fresh
blood infused into the tournament. A first time experience can make tem nervous and lack of
confidence can refrain them from putting in their complete dedication to win the game.