Assessing Terrorist Threats to Pakistan and Neighboring Nations

This report comprehensively assesses the terrorist threats faced by Pakistan and its neighboring countries, including India, Iran, and Afghanistan. It identifies key terrorist organizations, such as Al Qaeda, and evaluates their intent and capabilities through the RAND Corporation's framework. The report highlights specific threats like attacks on the Pakistan railway system and potential future targets in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. It discusses research methodologies, findings, strengths, and limitations, using pictorial evidence to illustrate the impact of terrorism. The report also examines various types of terrorist threats, including apartment bombings, water terrorism, and hostage crises, providing insights into the complex interplay between security and freedom. The analysis underscores the increasing global threat of terrorism and offers guidance for policymakers on improved preparation, international collaboration, and response strategies. The research emphasizes the need for continuous assessment and adaptation to counter the evolving nature of terrorist activities.

Running head: TERRORIST THREAT
Terrorist Threat
Name of the student:
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Executive Summary
This report has considered the previous as well as recent activities of terrorism which has left a
black imprint on the human population. The intentions of the terrorists in specific are to create
havoc by killing innocent souls with the aim of attaining their political or religious goals. The top
terrorist organizations are listed in the report and the instances are given with special focus on
Pakistan. The research had certain strengths and limitations and the findings are elaborated with
the use of pictorial evidence. The impact of terrorism in the future will increase and will become
a common menace for the people.

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Table of Contents
Terms of Reference..........................................................................................................................3
Aims of the report............................................................................................................................3
Introduction......................................................................................................................................3
Research Methodologies..................................................................................................................4
Research Findings............................................................................................................................6
Strengths and limitations of the research.........................................................................................9
Specific types of threat..................................................................................................................10
Instances of terror attacks in Pakistan and the neighboring countries...........................................12
Conclusion.....................................................................................................................................15
Reference.......................................................................................................................................16

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Terms of Reference
Assess the current threats that the international terrorist groups are posing against
Pakistan along with the neighboring countries such as India, Iran and Afghanistan. It is required
to recognize which groups are specifically the greatest threats for terrorist attacks either
nationally or internationally. With respect to this particular topic, the nature of threats will be
discovered along with the characteristics of the terrorist groups involved.
Aims of the report
The purpose of this report is to briefly present to the government the most important
international terrorist threats that the countries are facing. It should be taken into account that
although the Intelligence Bureau have been successful in seeking individuals and groups as
domestic terrorists, this particular brief will particularly look into the threats posed by the
terrorist groups that have wide socio- economic and political impact.
Introduction
Terrorism is the practice of the systematic use of violence that is created by a certain
group for causing fear among the larger population with the intention of bringing out a particular
political objective (Clemens and Dittmann 2016). Terrorism practices are carried out by political
organizations in general, nationalistic and religious groups, by revolutionaries or by state
institutions such as armies, police and intelligence services. These activities are controversial as
well as complicated and due to its ferocious nature the term itself has an intrinsic disgrace. The
fear of terrorism is not clearly defined in any jurisdiction and do not only affect the direct victims
but a larger audience within a large socio- cultural and political area.

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This particular report will look into the case of terrorism in Pakistan where it has become
a chief and extremely critical contemporary phenomenon. The annual number of deaths due to
terrorist activities has increased in 6 years by around 3154 people with a total of more than
35000 Pakistanis killed in ten years (Combs 2015). It has been a contradictory debate that the
terrorism practices are deliberately created and sharpened by the political parties to attain their
objectives. The 9/11 incident of USA has been considered as one of the biggest terrorism
activities in the world. Two elements were highlighted after this terrorist activity, the battle
between the government and the specific terrorist groups and the US quest for Al- Qaeda in co-
operation with the Pakistani forces (Estrada et al. 2017). In the recent months of 2017, a large
number of terrorism activities have taken place in Pakistan which is juxtaposed to the fact that
Pakistan is often held responsible as a focal point of terrorism.
Research Methodologies
A study was initiated by the RAND Corporation to make a list of the terrorist
organizations. This study was conducted with respect to the anti- Pakistan sentiment and the
operational capabilities to assess the threats imposed by the organizations (Evans and Schuller
2015). This particular framework has two significant variables such as the intent and the
capability. Intent is the variable that refers to the level of anti- Pakistan sentiment depicted by the
terrorist organizations. Capability, on the other hand, refers to the skills of attacking that is
possessed by the organization.
Both these variables can be measured on a scale of 1- 5 as they are related to all the
terrorist organizations. When intent is referred, the lowest mark 1 represents the groups which
simply design the anti- Pakistan expression or have stated the goal to deform the important

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partners of Pakistan. One significant factor of these groups are that they do not subscribe to their
own expression of attacking Pakistan and as an outcome are regarded to have a low level of
threat. However, a mark of 5 is used for referring the group which has a particular focus on the
attacks on Pakistan such as LeT (Huq 2017). As the level of anti- Pakistan sentiment is a crucial
factor to understand the aim of the terrorist organizations, simultaneously it is also important to
assess their ability to plan, implement, cooperate and carry out attacks against Pakistan. This will
be beneficial in making an effective counter- terrorism policy for the country.
On the other hand, if Capability is measured on a scale of 1- 5, then 1 will represent the
ability of terrorist organization to kill or injure numerous people on a single attack (Johnson et al.
2014). Again a mark of 5 will refer to the ability to conduct multiple attacks with advanced
technologies and intelligence. Following is the list of twenty two terrorist groups with respect to
their intent and capability which were contrasted as per the RAND database of around 3800
international terrorist activities in ten years.

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Fig: the intent and capability score of the terrorist organizations
Source: (Evans and Schuller 2015)

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Fig: 22 terrorist groups
Source: (Johnston, P.B. and Sarbahi 2016)
Research Findings
On the basis of the table given above it can be found out that although Al Qaeda is a
comparatively weaker group but still tops the list in posing threat to Pakistan and the neighboring
countries. Al Qaeda is said to pose the maximum threat and the passenger rail system are

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regarded as the most vulnerable to these terrorist activities (Khan, Estrada and Yusof 2016). The
list given below will make the statement clear and crisp.
Fig: Terrorist attacks on Pakistan railways
Source: (Kumar 2014)
The intense of terrorist activities on the Pakistan railways can be clearly understood from the
above chart. The findings also suggest that the past records of Al Qaeda’s attacks and their future
planning also have the probability to use multiple modified explosives and inflammable devices
in addition to the domestic explosives. It can also be predicted that the upcoming attacks are

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assumed to be in the areas of China- Pakistan Economic Corridor as the main terrorism activities
are aimed at the heavy vehicular systems and the particular area is planning to have increased rail
infrastructure. The suggestion is that the attack has the probability to take place in the busy hours
of the day.
Fig: List of countries with majority of terror attacks

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Source: (Lynch and Argomaniz 2014)
In the era of increasing terrorism worldwide, it has become a statement for the countries to be
involved in the strategic vision of recognizing the probable attacks and prepare for the prevention
of the same. The research and analysis carried out by RAND has provided the policymakers with
the guidance and suggestions to for an improved preparation, global collaboration, reaction and
revival to the international threat of terrorism (Mian 2016).
Strengths and limitations of the research
The approach to assess the terrorist organizations with respect to the intent and capability
and the ranking of the groups according to the database of RAND is a critical factor for the
researchers and policy makers and can be considered as one of the major strengths (Murphy
2013). With the utilization of several criteria and the scaled values it has been helpful to offer a
multi- dimensional view of the group along with providing the policy makers and the researchers
with a proper method of setting operations against the terrorist organizations. The findings can
also be generalized if the processes followed are systematic and the sample of the research
portrays study population. The quantitative data that is gathered for the research are easy to
analyze as compared to qualitative data because these are concise, constant and reliable.
Information is available in detail as there were multiple methods of gathering data on a sensitive
topic as terrorism. The process of data collection is also cost effective.
Again a significant limitation of the methodology is that there is no consideration of the
groups that have not carried out any attack on Pakistan or the neighboring countries such as
India, Iran and Afghanistan and are outside the specific timeframe of the study. This particular
research does not show the change in capabilities of the terrorists groups over time which can aid

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in the analysis process of the policy makers (Nacos 2016). In the same way, the groups which
have spent more time in contributing to the arousal of anti- Pakistan sentiment among the
members instead of carrying out the attacks that might be vulnerable to Pakistan in the long term.
There are other limitations related to the unavailability inaccessibility of the relevant data. In this
research, the data gathered was not sufficient to explain the complex issues of the threats of
terrorism (Nelson and Hajcak 2017). The findings from the research were not fitted clearly in the
standard categories and the process of data collection took a lot of time.
Specific types of threat
The independent states provide freedom and liberties which can be taken for granted
often. The citizens of the countries are able to speak freely without being afraid of any kind of
counter reaction and have the relative flexibility of accessing information. They are also able to
carry out their daily business without any interference in their privacy. But, these liberties do not
come without a price such as the individuals who are a part of the democracy can attack on the
vulnerability of the system. The similar kind of machines can be made stagnant if something is
thrown on the exposed structure (Nizami et al. 2014). Following is the list which does not intend
to support the act of terrorism or terrorists or to go against democracy and freedom. This list will
help in the seeking of the terrorist threats that are faced by the democratic countries and discuss
the thin line that is drawn between security and freedom.
In 2013, Islamabad had fallen prey to a hostage crisis when a man had taken one woman
and two children as hostage supposed to be his family. This crisis went on till 6 hours when the
man was killed with the intervention of the man whose name was Malik Muhammed Sikander.
This incident shook the city of the probable terrorist activities.