History of Intelligence: Pearl Harbor Attack and Intelligence Failure

This essay provides an overview of the Pearl Harbor attack and examines it as a significant failure of strategic intelligence. The introduction defines strategic intelligence and highlights the context of the attack on December 7, 1941. The essay argues that the United States had prior knowledge of a potential attack but failed to act on it, leading to severe consequences. The analysis explores various contributing factors, including the underestimation of Japan's military capabilities and the limitations of the intelligence systems of that era. It also discusses the debate surrounding the importance of this intelligence failure and its impact on the USA's decision to enter World War II. The conclusion emphasizes the incident's impact on world history and the implications of the intelligence failure for the USA's retaliation and participation in the war. The essay cites various sources to support its arguments, including scholarly articles and historical documents.

PEARL HARBOR
AND
INTELLIGENCE
FAILURE
An Overview

INTRODUCTION
 Japan’s attack on the Pearl Harbor of
USA on 7 December 1941 is often
considered to be one of the biggest
failures of strategic intelligence.
 The military leaders of USA got a
fair idea regarding the impending
attack on Pearl Harbor however they
rejected the idea as too far-fetched or
preposterous (Dahl 2017).
 Furthermore, the nation of USA
failed to effectively utilize the
concept of strategic intelligence
which could have helped it to avert
the attack.

STRATEGIC INTELLIGENCE
 Strategic intelligence refers to the process
which is being followed for the collection,
processing, analysis and thereby the
dissemination of the information which is
needed for the formulation of the different
policies or military plans (Wirtz 2018).
 Pastorello and Testa (2017) have noted that
the majority of the information which is
needed by the nations for the usage of the
process of strategic intelligence comes
from the diverse “Open Source
Intelligence”.
 It helps the nations to gain a foresight
about the offensive actions which their
enemies or the other nations are intending
to use against them (Dahl 2013).

ANALYSIS OF PEARL HARBOR
AS AN INTELLIGENCE FAILURE
 Blum and Paté-Cornell (2015) have noted that an
important reason for the intelligence failure can be
attributed to the fact that intelligence system used
by USA back in the 20th century was not as
advanced as the one which is being presently used
by it.
 USA pinned too much hope on the diplomatic
negotiations which were being conducted by it with
Japan at that point of time
 USA under-estimated the navy might of Japan and
also its naval vessels
 Furthermore, on the morning of 7th December
1941 when the Japanese naval vessels appeared on
the radar of USA, the naval officers of USA
dismissed the same thinking that it was a “B-17
bombers aircraft” of USA itself (History.state.gov
2019).

ATTENTION DEVOTED TO
PEARL HARBOR
 An important debate which had been raging in
the field of intelligence is whether too much
importance is being devoted to this intelligence
failure.
 Pastorello and Testa (2017) are of the viewpoint
that the attack caused of USA to undertake the
attack on Hiroshima and Nagasaki.
 Jensen III, McElreath and Graves (2017) have
noted that the attack of Japan on Pearl Harbor
made the nation of USA to rethink its decision
of not participating in the Second World War.
 After this particular attack of the nation of
Japan, the nation of USA not only attacked
Japan in retaliation but also decided to
participate in the Second World War (Gentry
2019).

CONCLUSION
 The attack on Pearl Harbor was an
important incident which completely
changed the course of world history.
 It was an intelligence failure on the part of
the USA and its diplomats as well as the
military officials of the concerned nation.
 The military officials completely
disregarded the signs of the impending
Japanese attack and though Japan to be
incapable of undertaking such an endeavor.
 The concerned incident had important
implications not only from the perspective
of the resultant retaliation of USA but also
on the score of its participation in the
Second World War.

REFERENCES
 Bar-Joseph, U. and McDermott, R., 2017. Intelligence success and failure: The human factor. Oxford University Press.
 Betts, R., Dahl, E., Goodman, M., Bar-Joseph, U. and Lasoen, K., 2018. Reactions to David Sherman’s ‘William Friedman and Pearl
Harbor’. Intelligence and National Security, 33(3), pp.324-336.
 Blum, D.M. and Paté-Cornell, M.E., 2015. Probabilistic warnings in national security crises: Pearl Harbor revisited. Decision
Analysis, 13(1), pp.1-25.
 Byman, D., 2016. Intelligence and its critics. Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, 39(3), pp.260-280.
 Cia.gov 2019. Pearl Harbor: Estimating Then and Now — Central Intelligence Agency. [online] Available at:
https://www.cia.gov/library/center-for-the-study-of-intelligence/kent-csi/vol9no4/html/v09i4a07p_0001.htm [Accessed 23 Sep. 2019].
 Dahl, E.J., 2013. Intelligence and surprise attack: Failure and success from Pearl Harbor to 9/11 and beyond. Georgetown University
Press.
 Dahl, E.J., 2017. Getting beyond analysis by anecdote: improving intelligence analysis through the use of case studies. Intelligence and
National Security, 32(5), pp.563-578.
 Eiran, E., 2016. The Three Tensions of Investigating Intelligence Failures. Intelligence and National Security, 31(4), pp.598-618.
 Gentry, J.A., 2019. Intelligence in war: how important is it? How do we know?. Intelligence and National Security, pp.1-18.
 History.state.gov 2019. Papers relating to the foreign relations of the United States, Japan, 1931–1941, Volume II - Office of the
Historian. [online] Available at: https://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1931-41v02/d80 [Accessed 23 Sep. 2019].
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