HIS/HUM 381 Discussion: Population Growth and Demography Analysis

This discussion board post examines the complexities of population growth and demography, drawing on several research articles. The post begins with a summary of a study by Murdoch et al. (2018) that explores the relationship between population wellbeing and fertility rates, particularly in Mid-African countries, and the authors' conclusion that declining fertility leads to improved wellbeing. The author then reacts to the article, offering a differing perspective on the measurement of wellbeing. The post also summarizes an article by Roser (2020) on future population growth, highlighting demographic transition and the potential end of global population growth due to declining fertility and the concept of 'peak child.' The author agrees with Roser's projections, but also suggests that improved health sectors and wellbeing could maintain population growth. Finally, the post summarizes a paper by Zhou, Xing, and Ji (2019) that develops a new framework for examining mortality rates using Threshold VECM. The author acknowledges the value of these models but questions the usefulness of ever-evolving models. The post concludes with a list of the cited references.

Running Head: POPULATION GROWTH AND DEMOGRAPHY
Population Growth and Demography
Name
Institution

POPULATION GROWTH AND DEMOGRAPHY 2
Population Growth and Demography
Murdoch, W., Chu, F., Stewart-Oaten, A., & Wilber, M. (2018). Improving wellbeing and
reducing the future world population. PLOS ONE, 13(9), e0202851. doi:
10.1371/journal.pone.0202851
Summary
According to the article by William W. Murdoch, Fang-l Chu, Allan Stewart-Oaten, and
Mark Q. Wilber, the world's population is projected to shoot to over 11 billion people by 2100
with only about 4 billion of people coming from the Mid-African countries due to dropping Total
Fertility Rate. The four authors compared the demographic history of 61 MACs and other
developing countries to determine the Total Fertility Rate that was found to be more than or
greater than 6 in all cases between 1950-1955 and later started to decline. Both the MAC and
ODC fertility projectors are attributed to some significant factors, such as the declining desire for
larger family size. However, the main factor attributed to the decline in the population if the
population's wellbeing. According to the authors, fertility and wellbeing are positively correlated
with a percentage of over 54%, in that when the community is low, the population experience
good health as the available resources feed sustains the entire population. In summary, the
authors feel that a drop in the fertility rate reduce population growth and thus leads to population
wellbeing. Additionally, the authors used the infant survival rate as a proxy to wellbeing
attributed to enhanced medical services.

POPULATION GROWTH AND DEMOGRAPHY 3
Reaction
According to the authors, the decline in total fertility rate among the MACs is a good
representation of population wellbeing; however, I think that the term wellbeing covers a wide
range and not only fertility rate. I tend to disagree in opinion with Murdoch, Chu, Stewart, and
Wilber (2018), when women or men are unable to conceive when all factors are constant, then it
is a clear indication that there are several underlining health issues that block the copulation as
well as fertilization of couples to enhance average birthrate. Therefore, I would say that it's
unrealistic to determine the population's wellbeing with the fertility rate of the country.
Roser, M. (2020). Future Population Growth. Retrieved 12 April 2020,
from https://ourworldindata.org/future-population-growth
Summary
The article by Max Roser is focused on determine the future population growth that has
caused demographic transition implications. According to the article, population growth is
controlled by both birth and death rates. By the UN projections, global population growth will
come to an end since the demographic history of many countries has already ended. This is
attributed to the reduced global fertility rate; thus, by the time population growth will read, 0.1%
of the world population will come to an end. According to the article, the main reason why the
world population growth is coming to an end is 'peak child' due to the increasing adult
population and decreasing child population. The second reason why the population growth will
come to an end is the perception that when the global number of deaths approach the number of
global births, the difference tends to be zero, thus leading to a zero population growth. According
to the article, by 2100, about 8 out of 10 people in the global population will be leaving either in

POPULATION GROWTH AND DEMOGRAPHY 4
Africa or Asia since both countries are currently experiencing high population growth than other
parts of the world. Asia's population will overtake China's population that is currently occupying
the first position.
Reaction
In my opinion, the article is full of population growth insights on the population
projections and thus prepares the entire world of the threatening situation. I agree with Roser
(2020) that population growth may t merely come to an end by 2100 since taking into account
the improving health sectors and wellbeing, there will be improved infant survival rate, which
will surpass the adult death rate. The difference between the death rate and birth rate thus will
maintain population growth even though at a reduced rate.
Zhou, R., Xing, G., & Ji, M. (2019). Changes of Relation in Multi-Population Mortality
Dependence: An Application of Threshold VECM. Risks, 7(1), 14. doi:
10.3390/risks7010014
Summary
The paper by Rui Zhou, Guangyu Xing, and Min Ji developed a framework that was used
to examine the presence of equilibrium changes and incorporate the changes in the mortality
model. This is attributed to the linear relationships that exist in the Vector error correction model
(VECM) that resulted in continuous changes of the expectancy from 64 years t in 1990 to 71
years in 2013. The changes in life expectancy are attributed to the changing and adopting a
healthy lifestyle and improve the health system. The identified mortality model identifies in this
article includes the Base Mortality model and Vector Error Correction Model. Comparing the
developed model: Threshold vector error Correction Model and Vector Error Correction Mode,

POPULATION GROWTH AND DEMOGRAPHY 5
authors found out that there is an estimated of a threshold effect, thus through applying TVECM,
the threshold effect is incorporated. TVECM was illustrated through the use of mortality data
retrieved from England, Canadians, and Wales and found out that TVECM provided faster
estimation on the mortality rate improvement faster than the single VECM.
Reaction
In my view, different models developed to determine the mortality rate as well as
estimate the population threshold is essential in providing insights on the future population and
demography (Zhou, Xing & Ji, 2019). However, the continuous adoption of new and
modification of the preexisting is a clear indication that none of the models is useful. Thus even
the new Threshold VECM will be outdated when a new model of mortality and population
estimation will be developed in the future.

POPULATION GROWTH AND DEMOGRAPHY 6
References
Zhou, R., Xing, G., & Ji, M. (2019). Changes of Relation in Multi-Population Mortality
Dependence: An Application of Threshold VECM. Risks, 7(1), 14. doi:
10.3390/risks7010014
Roser, M. (2020). Future Population Growth. Retrieved 12 April 2020,
from https://ourworldindata.org/future-population-growth
Murdoch, W., Chu, F., Stewart-Oaten, A., & Wilber, M. (2018). Improving wellbeing and
reducing the future world population. PLOS ONE, 13(9), e0202851. doi:
10.1371/journal.pone.0202851