Principals of Financial Markets: Qantas vs Virgin Australia Analysis

This report provides a comprehensive financial analysis of Qantas Airways and Virgin Australia, evaluating their performance within the Australian market. The analysis employs a top-down approach, examining macroeconomic factors such as GDP, currency movements, interest rates, and inflation to understand the broader economic context impacting the airlines. A bottom-up approach is then used to assess company-specific parameters and industry trends. The report includes an introduction to both companies, detailed analyses of the economic indicators, and a comparative assessment of the airlines' financial health and performance, including stock prices. The findings are summarized with recommendations for both airlines, considering the challenges of rising operational costs and fluctuating oil prices. The report concludes with a reference list. Both airlines are experiencing rising operational costs and lower profitability from fluctuations in oil prices, the companies needs to adopt various measures as adopting online booking system, adopting low cost carriers and other parameters for increasing its profitability.

Principals of Financial Markets Group
Assignment- Qantas vs Virgin Australia
Student Name: Student ID:
Subject Name: Subject ID:
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Executive Summary
Country prevailing conditions are bound to create an impact on economic parameters for a
company. A company profits or loss or performance is governed by macro-economic factors,
industry prevalent factors as well as company specific factors. The scope of the current report
analyses scope for Virgin Airlines and Qantas Airways in its performance in Australia. for
analysis Top-down approach including GDP, inflation, interests rates and other factors for
Australia is analysed. In Bottoms-Up approach Company specific parameters with that of
industry prevalent rates are analysed. Post such analysis a generalized outlook for Virgin and
Qantas is understood which are then summarized and recommendations are provided. As both
the airlines are experiencing rising operational costs and lower profitability from fluctuations in
oil prices, the companies needs to adopt various measures as adopting online booking system,
adopting low cost carriers and other parameters for increasing its profitability.
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Contents
Executive Summary.........................................................................................................................2
Table of Figures...............................................................................................................................3
1.0 Introduction................................................................................................................................4
1.1 Company Introduction 1: Virgin Airlines..............................................................................4
1.2 Company Introduction 2: Qantas Airways.............................................................................5
2.0 Top-down Analysis....................................................................................................................5
2.1 GDP........................................................................................................................................5
2.2 Currency Movement..............................................................................................................7
2.3 Interest Rates..........................................................................................................................8
2.4 Inflation..................................................................................................................................9
3.0 Bottom-up Analysis.................................................................................................................10
4.0 Summary and Recommendation..............................................................................................14
Reference Lists..............................................................................................................................15
Table of Figures
Figure 1: Australia GDP..............................................................................................................................6
Figure 2: Australian Currency Rate.............................................................................................................7
Figure 3: Australia Interest Rates................................................................................................................8
Figure 4: Australian Inflation Rate..............................................................................................................9
Figure 5: Virgin Airline Stock Price..........................................................................................................11
Figure 6: Qantas Airlines Share Price........................................................................................................13
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1.0 Introduction
Economy of Australia is developed consisting of largest mixed market economy with a GDP of
AUD$1.69 trillion in 2017 (Australia, 2010). Australia though a small nation is second
wealthiest economy post Switzerland. Australia is rated as 14th largest economy according to its
GDP. It has had stable GDP since a prolonged period of time and comprises of 20th largest
exporter. In recent years Australia had experienced negative growth associated with slowing
down of its housing sector and service sector growth. Primary contributor of Australian GDP are
Services 61.1%, Mining 6.9%, Construction 8.1%, Agriculture 2.2% and Manufacturing 6.0%.
Inflation recorded for the country is at 1.9% for its June quarter 2017 (Atkinson, 2007). The
country has a stable currency Australian Dollars and a stable financial market. The country has
approximately a labor force comprising of 12.6 million and unemployment rates are at 5.6%.
Australian airline industry is vast sector that is dominated by two f its giant airlines Virgin and
Qantas Airways. The industry is rapidly growing with growth in tourism segment and has
attached several endeavors for customers for creating greater sphere of services. The Australian
economy has provided various fundamental economic factors that has allowed growth and
development in this segment of business (Ravenhill, 2007). The scope of the current study
analyses industry prevalent conditions in airline industry and two ASX listed companies namely
Virgin Airlines and Qantas Airways. Several micro and macro factors are considered within the
economy that provides directional changes to it and also create value in its hare prices.
1.1 Company Introduction 1: Virgin Airlines
Virgin Australia Airlines Pty Ltd was earlier known as Virgin Blue Airlines, which was founded
in 1999. It is considered second largest airline in Australia and is largest according to its current
fleet size (www.virginaustralia.com, Retrieved on 14th September 2017). The Company was co-
founded by Richard Branson and was previously based in Bowen Hills, Brisbane. Mission
statement for the Company is to become Australia’s favorite airline. At The Company has
several hubs spread across Australia, it primarily focuses on Adelaide Airport, Perth Airport and
Gold Coast Airport with fleet size of over 115 covering 52 destinations. Current revenue
earnings for the Company is AUD$ 4.7 billion whereas operating income is AUD$ - 49 million.
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The Company competes with Qantas Airlines and also several other airline operators from
worldwide that operates in Australia.
1.2 Company Introduction 2: Qantas Airways
Qantas Airways is the flagship carrier of Australia, which was founded in 1920 in Winton,
Queensland, Australia (www.qantas.com, Retrieved on 14th September 2017). The airline covers
multiple destinations across Australia and globally and its hubs are based in Australia. Mission
of Qantas Airlines is lead being Australia’s premium airline and being always dedicated to the
best. It has over 122 operating fleets covering 85 destinations globally. Its current headquarters is
at Mascot in Sydney. The Company earned a revenue of AUD$15.8 billion in 2015, whereas its
operating income was AUD$975 million. It has a large base of employees 28,622.
2.0 Top-down Analysis
Overall economic situation prevailing is bound to impact on a firm’s business growth and related
activities. Top-down approach within an economy analyses larger picture by taking into
consideration smaller elements (Böhringer, 2008). Investors, with a broader view of the
economy, often select this process. It allows picking of stocks from emerging markets or from
economic situations that are more prevalent to growth for companies. It diagnoses broader
economic aspects for generating a worldview. The approach is focused on analysing
macroeconomic picture at first then analyses industry specific condition. Australia offers a
potentially attractive market with stable parameters that are conducive to its growth. In this
approach GDP, trade balance, currency movements, interests rates and inflation along with other
economic specific factors for analysis of trends in the economy.
2.1 GDP
The gross Domestic Product (GDP) for Australia is at 1204.62 billion US dollars, which
comprises of 1.94% of the world economy (Dwyer, 2010). The sectors that contribute to the
GDP of Australia has already been discussed above, which is expected to rise annually.
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Figure 1: Australia GDP
Source: (tradingeconomics.com, Australia GDP, Retreieved on 14th Septemeber 2017)
Nominal GDP of Australia is $1.258 trillion and PPP adjusted GDP is at $1.187 according to
IMF. Its GDP growth rate is at 1.8% annually and its per capita GDP is at $51,850 nominal with
PPP adjusted GDP being at $48,899. It has gained per capita GDP rank of 12th world over.
Primary dominance in the Australian sector is by services which occupies a 61.1% (Li, 2013).
The stock exchange in the country is 16th largest in the whole world. It has some of the largest
interest rate traded derivatives. Recently the GDP of the country has dipped which has resulted in
low purchasing power amongst consumers. This has affected tourism sector in a large manner,
especially the airline industry. Airline constitutes a large part of the service industry, which has
been affected, leading to lowering of GDP (Garnett, 2008). Rising unemployment, rising
population, lowered production in the country has tremendously affected output leading to drop
in GDP. With rising of people losing job, less number of people now have purchasing power to
fly by airline, which has in turn impacted airline industry in general.
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2.2 Currency Movement
Australian Dollar is relatively a stable currency, which is traded almost globally. Earlier trends
depicts that Australian currency had a fairly fluctuating trend as compared to other countries but
recently it has been able to stabilize its currency scenario.
It is though valid only in Australia and some parts of New Zealand (Borenstein, 2014). The
currency trades at quite stable rates and rising exports with lowering of loans have made the
currency stronger.
Figure 2: Australian Currency Rate
Source: (www.rba.gov.au, Retrieved on 14th Sepetember 2017)
Recent trends depict the currency growing weaker as compared to USD which has led to large
number of passengers purchasing tickets from the airlines (Baker, 2015). Due to airline ticket
becoming more affordable as compared to tickets of other airlines, more passengers are willing
to buy tickets of Virgin and Qantas to fly to various locations. Similarly when the currency
emerges o be stronger, then sales of ticket for the airline drops significantly.
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2.3 Interest Rates
Interest rates are a predetermining factors for economic growth and stability. Interest rates in
Australia are determined by its Reserve Bank which has targets for its ‘cash rate’ for overnight
funds. It is used as an instrument in the monetary policy which exerts control over cash rate and
financial market operations (Oxenbridge, 2010). RBB in Australia makes decision regarding
cash rate target for maintaining adequate liquidity in the market. Interest rate in Australia is
maintained at levels to maintain liquidity and control rates of inflation. Though in the past
Australia had experienced high rates of interest rates in recent years it has been marginal.
Interest rates in Australia had been significantly higher in the past compared to recent trends (De
Neufville, 2008). Current trends in Australia depicts interests rates of the country to be around
spread of 1.2%. - 1.7%
Figure 3: Australia Interest Rates
Source: (www.businessinsider.com, Retreived on 14th Spetember 2017)
At such low interest rates, companies are able to raise capital in debt form more easily as
compared to equity capital (Wiedmann, 2009). Low levels of interest rates are conducive to
economic growth, stability and prosperity. Higher interest rates on the other hand reflect a debt-
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ridden economy. The scope of the current analysis depicts that Virgin and Qantas Airlines can
easily raise debt capital at lower costs of capital, with lower servicing rates for their expansion or
other endeavors.
2.4 Inflation
Inflation determines purchasing power of consumers and needs to be assessed for determining
relative effectiveness of the economy (Shahiduzzaman, 2014). Inflation is a determinant factor in
the Australian economy that encompasses and assesses purchasing power. Australia has had
tremendous number of immigrants in the past, but currently its population trends are declining
and ageing population have relatively lower purchasing power as compared to younger
generation. Unemployment has also seriously affected the economy leading to low purchasing
power in people’s hands. Consumer prices is rising constantly in Australia to 1.9 %, which
markets an era of a 2 year high range. Earlier inflation was around 2.2 %, market conditions as
lowering demand in housing market and transport has led to such declining rates.
Figure 4: Australian Inflation Rate
Source: (tradingeconomics.com, Australia Inflation, Retreived on 14th September 2017)
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Increase in consumer inflation has been significantly lower in recent years with rise in job losses
and outsourcing in the economy. Large amounts of Australian economy is facing significant run-
down due to outsourcing of job offshore (Thurlow, 2007). With lowering of purchasing power in
hands of consumers with similar outlook for the future, the economy is further expected to
suffer. With low levels of purchasing power demand associated with airline ticket and associated
businesses are expected to fall in the future. There is a negative outlook in the Australian
economy for the future, especially in regards to consumer related demands. Macro-economic
conditions are deterrent for any growth related factors in any sector especially in the service. As
both the companies in analysis Virgin and Qantas airlines are present in Australia, within similar
specific conditions both companies are estimated to be impacted in a similar manner. Australian
markets are conducive for growth and development of airline industry and its businesses.
3.0 Bottom-up Analysis
In a bottom-up analysis fundamental analysis for the Company is taken into consideration. It
encompasses financial statements, security prices and other prospects for the company (Forsyth,
2008). As against top-down approach, in bottom-up approach it is assumed that companies will
perform well. Bottom-up approach identifies industry related aspects as against those of the
company for arriving at a recommendation. Australia airline industry has been through turbulent
times with steady decline in international tourists. Post terrorists attacks international tourists has
declined leading to traffic loss from all airlines globally. The industry has also undergone
tremendous amounts of structural changes since 1990s with opening of Australian markets to
international players. Earlier there were two airlines in the industry one being Qantas airways
and another being Ansett Australia but with Virgin Blue and Impulse Airlines emerging, the
industry has changed immensely. Qantas remains a dominant player in the market with Virgin
having less than one third of the market share. Domestic airline industry in Australia largely
remains unregulated with Australia’s International airline being regulated from Federal level.
International airlines have capacity controls with long-established system of bilateral air service
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agreements (ASAs). The framework allows smooth and easy functioning of operations scheduled
in international air service. The Commonwealth government has also adopted a series of
measures in an attempt to rapidly develop low-cost airline segment at competitive rates. These
policy changes have affected existing airlines and new airlines. Passenger share in the aviation
industry largely remains affected with emergence of large number of carriers and international
fleet in the market.
Industry analysis according to bottom-up approach for airline industry in Australia with that of
Qantas and Virgin Airlines is taken into consideration. Current market capitalization for Virgin
Airlines is at AUD $1,565M with equivalent share 8,458 M. current price at which the stock
trades is $0.185.
Figure 5: Virgin Airline Stock Price
Source: (investsmart.com.au, Retreived on 14th September 2017)
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The Company has Earnings of 1.80 as against sector scenario of 1.06, its P/E Ratio is 0 as
against sector ratio of 18.40 and P/B ratio is .00 against sector average of 1.82. It P/E growth
ratio is 0 as against sector growth rates of 3.63 (Nimark, 2009). These data reflects that Virgin is
though an established airline, it has barely been able to meet up with the standards prevalent
within the industry. The Company neither has a P/E ratio, implying that it has not been able to
deliver significant return on its share capital. The Company has not been able to generate
earnings for its shareholders. The Company in order to establish and grow within the current
industry needs to strive or extend several competitive advantages. The Company needs to expand
its core advantages and provide more offering to its customers in order to attract more
passengers. The airline industry is extremely competitive hence, in order to become competitive
the airline needs to develop several advantageous prices or discounts or offers to generate more
amount of sales as against its competitors.
Qantas Airways on the other hand has a market capitalization of AUD $10,470 M with
equivalent shares of 1,808 M (Hazel, 2012). The Company has an Earning of 1.08 as against
sector average of 1.06. It has a P/E ratio of 10.94 as against sector average of 18.40, its P/B ratio
is 2.96 as against 1.82 sector average. Its P/E growth rate is 2.01 and sector average is 3.63.
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