Predicting Rainfall Impact on Paddy Harvest and Agricultural Loans

This MSc project, conducted under CMM799, investigates the significant impact of rainfall on paddy harvest and its subsequent effects on agricultural loans within Sri Lankan banks. The research focuses on predicting loan losses based on rainfall patterns and their influence on crop yields. The study explores historical data, analyzes the relationship between rainfall and agricultural loan performance, and develops a predictive model to forecast future loan losses. The project utilizes various software tools and data analysis methods to assess the risk mitigation strategies for banks, considering the importance of agriculture in Sri Lanka's economy. The project includes an introduction to the problem statement, research questions, background information on agriculture and agricultural loans, objectives, scope, methodology, and data analysis techniques. It also covers literature review, requirement analysis, design of the solution, implementation, testing, and evaluation, with conclusions and recommendations for future work. The research aims to provide valuable insights for banks and policymakers to manage agricultural loan risks effectively.