Critical Analysis: Mueller's Argument on War's Obsolescence in IR

This report is a reading review of John Mueller's paper, "Is War Still Becoming Obsolete?" The review critically examines Mueller's argument that major wars are decreasing in frequency due to cultural changes, the realization of war's futility, and the deterrent effect of nuclear weapons. The review summarizes Mueller's points, including the comparison of war to obsolete practices like dueling and slavery, and his emphasis on the role of socio-cultural changes in diminishing war's appeal. The reviewer acknowledges the paper's conclusion, but questions the strength of the evidence presented, particularly the lack of detailed explanation of the cultural shifts. The review also points out the paradox of increasing defense spending despite the argument that war is becoming obsolete, but ultimately agrees with Mueller's conclusion that war, though not completely eliminated, is becoming less relevant due to the understanding of its harmful effects. The review concludes by highlighting the importance of peace talks and containment policies.

Running head: INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS
Reading Review
Mueller, J., 1991, August. Is War Still Becoming Obsolete?. In 87th Annual Meeting of the
American Political Science Association, August, Washington, DC.
In this paper, the famous thesis of John Mueller’s Obsolesces of war has been critically
reviewed. In this presentation, Mueller had advocated that the occurrences of major wars have
been on a decreasing trend. He has stated in the paper, that wars have become obsolete after the
end of the first world war, but only after witnessing the abhorrent results of the second world
war, did the world learned its lessons about the futility of this bloodbath. He had mentioned that
this futility and realization had resulted in the long years of peace after the cold war. He had
concluded that the modern western nations have understood the irrelevancy of wars and has
argued that soon it will become ‘sub rationally unthinkable’. This would happen because of the
realization of the futility, economic losses, overall catastrophe and the socio cultural change
which it would bring.
The paper has been distributed in two parts; the first part deals with the obsolescence of
the war argument and the second part with the nuclear weapons have prove to be a major
deterrent for the long spells of peace.
At first Mueller sets the tone for an examination by examining two social evils; dueling and
slavery, which had disappeared through a similar kind of a cultural change which according to
him is the main reason for growing obsolesce of wars. Dueling was a very prominent method of
settling disputes between people for centuries, before it went out of fashion and ultimately died
out. Slavery on the other hand, was assumed to be an innate part of humanity since ancient times.

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Here, Mueller compares these two evils with war, emphasizing the fact that war too will become
obsolete like these dead ancient practices.
Mueller cites the example of various nations who had voluntarily relinquished the practices of
wars like Switzerland, Holland and Sweden. Thereafter, he states that it was only after the end of
the First World War, which had led people to think and talk about the dangers of war.(Mueller
1991).This as he says had changed Europe’s view of war with slogans of anti war, although the
Second World War could not be prevented. It had happened as explained by him because of
Hitler’s ambition and ‘entrepreneurship’. He further states that the major world powers have
become peacekeepers because they have become risk averse because of the fear of major mutiny
and escalation. They had a hard time learning the lessons taught by the Second World War. He
asserts that these lessons would still be prevalent today as policy of cold war containment is way
better than outright confrontation. He explains later that the romanticism of war among the third
world countries has diminished considerably and is now just a relic of the past and he cites the
example of Latin America to explain it. He asserts that peace provides the security to the
governments to promote growth and prosperity.
Mueller concludes the paper by asserting the fact that the evil practice of war cannot be
completely detached from the practices of humanity, but he also states that due to its harmful
effects and futility, it will eventually become obsolete. He hopes that like the end of slavery and
dueling, which were human creations, war too will eventually come to an end. (Mueller 1991).
He says that peace talks and the other opponents of war have been successful in bringing long
duration of peace, especially after the end of World War two. Mueller insists that conflicts won’t
die anytime soon, but it can be dissolved without violent engagements.

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He argues that the major cause of the obsolescence of war has been the socio cultural
changes which took place gradually after the end of the Second World War. Mueller has rightly
pointed out that the various war scenarios in the third world countries were just an antique thing
of the past conflicts. They too have understood the worthlessness of war. Mueller states that the
understanding of the horrendous effects of war has compelled major nations like the United
States and others to use a policy of containment and peace to counter the progenies of wars. On
careful observation, it can be seen that Mueller fails to defend his own standpoint .In this paper,
he fails to substantiate his own conclusion that the trends of wars have been on a decreasing
trend because of the ‘cultural changes’. He has hardly explains any of these changes. Mueller has
explained the various events and its impact but not the changes. Although, his conclusion is
correct and is commendable, but the causes have not been appropriately explained.
Unfortunately, he fails to establish a strong relationship between his arguments and conclusion.
The interconnection between the political, cultural and social changes and wars has not been
substantially presented. These are instrumental in bringing these changes(Mueller 1991).All
these changes which have made the wars so futile and ‘sub rationally unthinkable’ has not been
touched upon by Mueller.
It has been proved in the paper that wars are a futile exercise and it provides losses to the
victors rather than any substantial gain of any kind. If this is case, then why expenditures on
armies and defense equipments are have been steadily increasing? The answer lies in the fact that
cultures change more slowly than society and institutions. This ideology of wars being regarded
as the prime weapon of protecting one’s sovereignty has been into a politician’s mind since the
ancient time. Mueller has rightly emphasized that wars have been on a decreasing trend but it
won’t be completely eliminated from the ecosystem of the world. Although as stated by him, that

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the governments have realized the futility of war and its losses, but it will remain an inevitable
part of humanity. It is an important arsenal, which shall be used only during contingency. They
have realized the value peace and the dangers of the nuclear power, so it is wise that a policy of
containment should be followed. Mueller hopes that this trend will continue in the future too.

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References:
Mueller, J., 1991, August. Is War Still Becoming Obsolete?. In 87th Annual Meeting of the
American Political Science Association, August, Washington, DC.