A Comprehensive Report on Export Market Selection Reasoning

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This report delves into the critical process of export market selection, a vital step for companies aiming to expand globally. It examines various models and criteria used to evaluate potential markets, emphasizing the importance of economic, political, social, and technological factors. The report highlights the significance of identifying key criteria and presents a scheme for determining basic export market selection factors, enabling businesses to pinpoint target markets. Through analysis, synthesis, and comparative analysis, along with expert evaluation methods, the research offers a framework for deciding in which markets to expand export activities. The paper reviews theoretical aspects of export market selection, including screening methods and the use of matrices, to aid in the decision-making process. The ultimate goal is to offer an integrated foreign market selection method that allows companies to identify the most suitable export markets based on their specific activities and goals. The report underscores the importance of considering geographical and psychological distances, cultural differences, and the need to adapt to changing environments in the selection process. This report is a valuable resource for understanding and improving export strategies.
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Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences 110 ( 2014 ) 1166 – 1175
1877-0428 © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. Open access under CC BY-NC-ND license.
Selection and peer-review under responsibility of the Contemporary Issues in Business, Management and Education conference.
doi: 10.1016/j.sbspro.2013.12.963
ScienceDirect
Contemporary Issues in Business, Management and Education 2013
Reasoning of export market selection
Algita Miečinskienėa*, Viktorija Stasytytėa, Justina Kazlauskaitėb
aVilnius Gediminas Technical University, Faculty of Business Management,
Saulėtekio ave. 11, LT-10223 Vilnius, Lithuania
bJSC Rubineta, Savanorių ave. 180, LT-03154 Vilnius, Lithuania
Abstract
Selection of export market is a very important step for a company which is going to expand its business and to bec
global. Company should choose the markets in which export activity is most valuable. Scientists suggest different m
reasoning of export market selection decisions, but almost all of them agree that markets have to be evaluated acc
most important criteria: economic, political, social and technological. Different criteria are important for different c
Determination of the most important criteria is the first step in the process of export market selection. A
significance of the criteria and their values, a target export market can be identified. The paper aims to present the
can help to determine basic export market selection factors and thus enable to find target markets. Analy
comparative analysis, as well as expert evaluation methods are used. The findings of the research performed in the
decide in which markets export activity should be expanded according to the main factors from the point of view of
company.
© 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.
Selection and peer-review under responsibility of the Contemporary Issues in Business, Management and Education
Keywords: export; export markets; criteria; company; activity.
1. Introduction
The efficiency of export, as well as successful foreign economic relations is determined by the properl
international market. While economic relations develop, the needs of inhabitants grow and competition
the efficient organization of export market research becomes an especially important factor influ
* Corresponding author. Tel.: +370 52 744887
E-mail address: algita.miecinskiene@vgtu.lt
Available online at www.sciencedirect.com
© 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. Open access under CC BY-NC-ND license.
Selection and peer-review under responsibility of the Contemporary Issues in Business, Management and Education conference.
brought to you by COREView metadata, citation and similar papers at core.ac.uk
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1167Algita Miečinskienė et al. / Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences 110 ( 2014 ) 1166 – 1175
productive international trade of a company. The levels of productivity for exporting firms are clearly hi
non-exporters (Delgado, Farinas, & Ruano, 2002; Temouri, Vogel, & Wagner, 2013).
The problems of export market selection are widely analysed by scientists in various aspects
Chen, & Thomas, 2002; Alexander, Rhodes, & Myers, 2011; He & Wei, 2011; Ortiz, Ortiz, & Ra
However, under changing environment, while companies are working under different conditions
countries, the necessity appears to propose solutions for export market selection problems in order to a
the conditions of environment. It is often assumed that firms select markets on a rational basis, but it is
more realistic to recognize that a non-systematic, strongly personalized and essentially belief-dr
selection process is a characteristic of many market selection decisions (Alexander, Rhodes, & Myers, 2
The company, having enough resources to invest in foreign markets, has to select particular
investment. It cannot use all the possibilities available in international market. Thus companies should i
priority markets, the sequence of priorities and allocate resources. While resources are being allocated
made regarding the particular countries to sell the product, as well as the way of selling.
The successful selection of foreign markets is an important step in company activity, because:
This decision impacts further actions in the selected foreign markets;
The geographical distance of the foreign market and its location impacts the decisions of a
possibilities to coordinate international operations;
In the initial steps it can appear to be the key factor of success or failure in the international market.
The purpose of the paper is to analyse and generalize the proposed export market selection methods
and on the basis of the performed analysis to offer the integrated foreign market selection method, allo
a target export market for a company operating in a particular field of activity.
The methods applied are: analysis of scientific literature, synthesis and comparative analysis,
expert survey.
2. Theoretical aspects of export market selection
The authors analysing the selection of export markets state that the market selection step is very im
company which is planning to export its products into foreign markets. A company should select the mo
markets out of the variety of possibilities. The trend of decisions of the field under analysis is
model evaluating certain factors. According to the selected factors the market segmentation/clas
performed. Thus the most adequate foreign markets are being selected out of many available markets.
Kontinen & Ojala (2012) state that first of all a company engages in international trade with
countries that have similar language, culture, political system, level of education, level of industry deve
Also, this is especially true about exporting retailers, the companies tend to export into physically proxi
that are less structurally developed but in the process of development (Alexander, Rhodes, & Myers, 20
imply smaller competition in that market. Further, a company obtains more knowledge about fo
gradually starts developing its activity in the countries that are psychologically distinct. Xinming & Ying
notice that exporters can get acquainted more easily with language, education, social condition
practice of a neighbouring country. In such a way risk and uncertainty can be avoided and ex
decreased. Further a need appears to start relationship with other countries and their markets, as well a
trade activity with them.
Some authors propose that for the selection of a foreign market out of a variety of possibili
company should use a screening method. Časas (2008) states that the indicators used for this
obtained easily enough; also, they should be equal and comparable, for example, various macroeconom
derivative indicators or other ratios related to company business. After several foreign markets are left
model is composed according companygoals and itsfinal product.A similarmethod is proposed bythe
Papadopoulos & Martin (2011), where on the step of initial selection the analysis of secondary
performed. While performing analysis, the information about markets to be eliminated is gathered, and
according to the selected criteria, the markets being left are evaluated. The objective of foreign market
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1168 Algita Miečinskienė et al. / Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences 110 ( 2014 ) 1166 – 1175
develop a theoretical background in order to make the process as much continuous, efficient an
possible.
Vengrauskas & Langvinienė (2009) propose a scheme for foreign market selection, which allows to co
importance of international business environment cognition, as well as the ways of reacting to various p
and differences of that environment. Also, the method proposed by the authors includes the process of c
of the country in which the core company is residing with the countries of secondary companies, and the
search in order to sell the products or services in foreign markets.
The selection of foreign market for a global business is implemented by the following steps:
1. The core needs for foreign investments and trade. The needs of entering the international m
evaluated; the potential of a company in a certain market is analysed.
2. Legal and political powers. The barriers to be encountered are considered (ex., the limitations of profi
into another country), as well as other factors, such as political climate.
3. Economic and financial powers. In the third step such important financial ratios as inflation, interest r
credit offer are taken into account. The market demand (for example, using such ratios as p
indicator, GDP, etc.) and other market factors are estimated.
4. Ecological and geographical powers. This step is related with evaluation of climate, topography and
resources.
5. Demographic powers. The potential customers (average age of inhabitants, level of education,
potential work force (loyalty of employees to a company, seeking for career, etc.) is evaluated.
6. Science development and technological innovations.
7. Socio-cultural powers.
8. The personal visit.
On every step, with the help of evaluation of the selected criteria, the market selection process takes
the number of markets decreases with each step, until several target markets are left. The less attractiv
eliminated using the following criteria of the elimination procedure:
Economic factors (too low level of income of citizens, etc.);
Political climate (unstable political situation);
Geographical factors (the country is too far away, the climate and relief conditions are inappropriate);
Cultural environment (the language barrier and problems related with religion; low cultural an
level);
Technological factors (low level of production and technologies, low employee qualification and comp
Foreign trade policy (high barriers of taxes, many non-tariff barriers limiting export, trade protection p
government).
According to Urbonas (2003), the separate stages of export market selection for particular companies
however, the initial market assessment, as well as the final market choice is common for all companies.
During the market selection procedure (Fig. 1), several criteria are selected that are appropriate and i
an exporting company, and all the markets are selected that meet the determined criteria.
After that the second stage begins, where market macro-segmentation takes place. In order t
interaction of the branches inside the country, markets are combined into branches, because it
export.
On the third stage the markets selected on the first stage are evaluated. The purpose of this
various analysis methods, to reject the markets selected during the initial selection procedure if they do
with the segment requirements. The criteria of the requirements are: market potential, demand in the
requirements for exporting company. The criteria proposed are evaluated with regard to time perspectiv
following methods of market volume assessment:
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1169Algita Miečinskienė et al. / Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences 110 ( 2014 ) 1166 – 1175
1. Current market potential;
2. Current market demand;
3. Current demand for the goods of exporting company;
4. The perspective of market potential;
5. The perspective of market demand;
6. The perspective of demand for the goods of exporting company.
Finally, the procedure of market selection passes to the fourth export market research stage – the fin
selection. This is the base for company export marketing plan preparation. A “market attractiveness – p
company” matrix can be used for decision making. This method allows to match the availability and att
of the market, i.e. the ability of a company to operate in particular market (Urbonas, 2003).
Gallego, Hidalgo, Acedo, Casillas, & Moreno (2009) state that a company while searching for potentia
markets anticipates that its activity will be profitable. There are more than 200 countries in the world, t
selecting the potential market the strongest attention should be given to political and economic
selecting foreign markets, the authors of the paper propose to analyse the geographical distance, i.e. th
between the home country and the foreign country, as well as psychological distance, i.e. cultu
betweenthe homecountryand the foreigncountry.Culturaldifferencesmostlyare relatedwith language
differences, cultural factors, economic situation, political and legal systems. Also, these two variables (g
distance and psychological distance) have strong correlation.
Fig. 1. The four-stage model of export market selection
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1170 Algita Miečinskienė et al. / Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences 110 ( 2014 ) 1166 – 1175
Additionally to the geographical and cultural factors mentioned above, Sheng & Mullen (2011) distingu
following:
Market size: general number of inhabitants, number of citizens, anticipated number of inhabitants in 2
Economic intensiveness: GDP per capita, electricity use, energy consumption.
Foreign direct investments.
Market recipience: import of goods and services as percentage of GDP, gross trade as percentage of G
Religious differences.
Gaston-Breton & Martin (2011) state that selection of foreign market is an important question in the st
international marketing and international business, as well as in management of that business. T
macro-segmentation model, which according different criteria evaluates the foreign market attractivene
segmentationis basedon the marketattractiveness”,which is measuredin size/potential”and market
development”. Market size/potential is reflected by the four indicators: GDP, population, imports
consumption. Market development is reflected by the five indicators: GDB per capita, total employment
domestic expenditure on R&D, level of internet access and corruption perceptions index.
In the recent literature to solve the problem of export market selection the quantitative methods are b
for example, data envelopment analysis. This method simultaneously analyses double factors, weight co
incompletedata(Seydel,2006;Saen,2011;Saen & Azadi, 2011;Noorizadeh,Mahdiloo,& Saen,2013).
Shahbandarzadeh & Haghighat (2010) argue that the quantitative methods being used, as well as decisi
skills will help to attain better results related with evaluation of marketing strategies. In performing the s
foreign markets, the authors first of all propose to use the Internal Factors Evaluation (IFE) matrix in orde
the strengths and weaknesses of internal market factors, and further use the External Factors E
matrix to evaluate the opportunities and threats of external factors. After classification of criteria into fou
strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats – the LINMAP technique is used for every level separa
technique allows evaluating the alternatives and find optimal solutions.
Thus the abundance of the methods analysed shows that even if the unique solution to the question h
the export market has not been found yet, but the main directions of the research are clear. It
distinguish factors on the basis of which the selection should be performed. The models allowing
economic, technological and geographical factors, political climate and foreign trade policy of the foreign
are being applied. As the indicators of the mentioned factors are measured in different values, it complic
comparison, thus for searching further solution one needs to use the methods eliminating this aspect, an
time allowing to select the market evaluation indicators suitable for particular company according its situ
and possibilities.
3. Practical application of multi-criteria methods to solve the problems of export market selection
Assessment of complex quantities pertaining to social and economic processes is a sophisticat
activity of processes is characterized by many indicators, and they cannot be expressed by one
variable or indicator, because it is difficult to find such a quality of that process which would in
essential features of the phenomena. Thus for comprehensive evaluation of complex quantities r
multicriteria evaluation is efficiently applied (Podvezko, 2008).
The problem of potential export market selection and comparison of markets of different countries als
comparison of indicators lacking one common measurement unit. Thus to increase the reliability of the r
potential market selection it is proposed to use multicriteria methods. The possibilities of applica
methods are analysed in the selected company operating in the branch of furniture production. The purp
select the markets for successful export of company products.
While analysing the current situation in the selected field, it can be noticed that export of fur
compared to 2011 increased by 21,23 per cent, or from LTL 2,9bn to LTL 3,6bn (Statistics Lithu
Recently the export to the countries of Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) is increasing
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1171Algita Miečinskienė et al. / Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences 110 ( 2014 ) 1166 – 1175
countries are increasingly interested in Lithuanian products. The export of furniture (including bedding,
their materials and frameworks, cushions) into traditional Eastern market (Russia, Belorussia, Ukraine)
2012 increased by 46,47 per cent and accounted for LTL 519,7m. The biggest increase of furniture exp
Russia (49,09 per cent, or by LTL155,9m). It can be noticed that these trends should continue, because
with growing Russian markets, as well as the markets of other CIS countries, the export of food, chemic
and furniture increased 3 times.
The key markets of furniture export are EU countries (Sweden, Germany, UK, Norway and Denmark),
the export of wood and furniture into these countries slightly shrank in 2012 (Izgorodin, 2013). The ana
that the increase of export into EU countries will be moderate, and the volume of export into CIS countr
decrease.
On the basis of export volume and its forecast the following markets are selected out of all the possib
markets: Ukraine, Russia, Belorussia, Kazakhstan, Germany, France, Netherlands and Denmark. B
analysis of the models proposed by the authors, which was performed in the first chapter of the paper,
select two target markets, the following core criteria were distinguished:
Population growth rate (%);
Level of unemployment (%);
Inflation (%);
GDP growth rate (%);
GDP per capita;
Export per capita;
Import per capita.
Thus the analysis of selected countries’ population and its economic indicators’ data form the base fo
data analysis. To prepare the data analysis, the statistical data of the five recent years (2008–2012) of
indicators was gathered. Table 1 presents the 5 years’ mean values of the respective indicators. It is wo
that the selected criteria are expressed in different measurement units, thus a data comparison problem
The impact of separate indicators, describing the object under research, on the analysed goal is diffe
applying quantitative multicriteria assessment it is especially important to determine the signific
indicators, i.e. their weights. The subjective evaluation most often takes place, when the weights of the
determined by the experts.
Thus performing the selection of the distinguished markets, the analysis of statistical data is supplem
expert valuation. The expert valuation has been performed seeking to determine the significanc
criteria. The participants of the individually-performed survey were the executives of the exporting com
Table 1. Mean values of 5 years’ (2008 – 2012) economic and population indicators
The expert valuation method is a specific survey of the selected group of people who are considered
experts in the particular field. The method is widely applied in sociological research in order to obtain th
data on the analysed topic. While using this method, a group of qualified experts, who can provide the n
qualified information about the evaluated object, needs to be formed. The group is usually com
Russia Belorussia Ukraine Kazakhstan Denmark Germany France Netherlands
Population growth rate (%) -0.472 -0.382 -0.640 0.382 0.282 -0.080 0.547 0.415
Level of unemployment (%)7.04 0.82 7.5 6.40 3.4 7.42 8.98 3.94
Inflation (%) 10.2 11.36 14.5 10.36 2.14 1.74 1.72 1.6
GDP growth rate (%) 2.94 6.68 0.78 5.24 -0.06 1 0.6 1.02
GDP per capita 15616 12999 6893 11674 37346 35345 33916 40899
Export per capita 2836 2900 1169 3777 18575 15944 8414 28915
Import per capita 1788 3361 1376 2035 17382 13260 9571 25870
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1172 Algita Miečinskienė et al. / Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences 110 ( 2014 ) 1166 – 1175
persons. The group of experts should ensure the particularity and reliability of the obtained data
possibility to verify it or even statistically validate. Depending on the requirements that are pose
obtained, the expert valuations can appear in different forms – starting from professional interviews and
individual survey to open group discussion of experts on the topic of the problem under research.
The data used in expert valuation method is of qualitative nature and there is no necessity to apply
tools. The method most often is used to formulate scientific definitions, to reach scientific objectivity, to
research object, to forecast the variation trends of a phenomena, to evaluate data obtained using other
This is a specific type of interview having certain peculiarities. Differently from survey, instead of a st
questionnaire often a certain problem is posed, the research object is presented, and experts propose th
about that object (Tidikis, 2003).
Skačkauskienė (2009) proposes to implement the expert valuation in the following way:
To form a group of experts;
To make a questionnaire for experts;
To determine the significance of the indicators under analysis and perform their normalization;
To perform the rank of the indicators.
Let us discuss the formation of a group of experts and determination of reliability of expert e
Competence is considered as the key criterion of expert selection. The experts were selected from small
size companies (the minimum requirements average yearly turnover must be not lower than L
company should perform export activity not less than for 10 years). Also, the threshold for expert experi
not less than 10 years of work experience in the field of international marketing. In such a way
selected out of different business companies with turnover LTL 3m to 16m and expert experience 10 to 2
The survey of experts was performed individually. The questionnaire with quantitative indicators was p
for evaluation. The experts were asked to evaluate the significance of quantitative indicators with regard
market selection. There were 7 quantitative indicators presented for quantitative survey. The task for ex
evaluate each indicator under analysis by the certain point, according to their importance in export mark
Also, the equal value could be given to two or more qualitatively different indicators if such ass
necessary.
The experts also determined the weights of indicators (I = 1, …, m), here m – the number of indicators
method of weight determination assessment has been applied in the paper, when every expert evaluate
of separate indicator (in per cent) in such a way that the sum of all the weights of all indicators equaled 1
most important indicator would be given the highest rank. The evaluations of 7 indicators by th
presented in Table 2.
Table 2. The expert evaluations of indicators’ weights, %
Expert
Indicator
1 2 3 4 5 6 Mean values Weights of
indicators
Standard
deviations
1. Population growth rate (%) 4 5 3 2 6 5 4.17 0.072 1.34
2. Level of unemployment (%) 15 8 10 12 9 13 11.17 0.112 2.41
3. Inflation (%) 9 18 15 13 16 8 13.17 0.132 3.62
4. GDP growth rate (%) 23 28 18 22 17 24 22 0.220 3.70
5. GDP per capita 17 14 27 28 24 20 21.66 0.216 5.12
6. Export per capita 6 3 5 7 2 3 4.33 0.043 1.80
7. Import per capita 26 24 22 16 26 27 23.5 0.235 3.73
The sum of valuations 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 1.000
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While evaluating the answers of experts, the mean values of every indicator‘s evaluation were estima
as weights of indicators (as one hundredth of the mean value). It is worth to notice that the s
weights should be equal to one (1).
1
1
m
i
i
w
=
= (1)
On the next step it is necessary to verify if the opinions of experts are harmonized (not contradictory)
of harmonization is determined by the coefficient of concordance W. In order to compute the c
concordance the indicators are preliminarily arranged (with regard to each expert), i.e. the most importa
is given the highest value, which equals to one, the next indicator according to its impact is given the va
etc. The least significant indicator is given the value m, where m is the number of indicators under analy
The expert valuation table (Table 2) can be easily transformed into the ranking table (Table 3). The la
of Table 3 shows the sum of every indicator’s ranges that is required to estimate the coefficient of conco
average value of ranges is 24, the sum of deviations of indicator’s ranges from their average squared su
S = 884.
The coefficient of concordance is estimated according to the formula (2)
( )2 2
12
1
S
W
r m m
=

(2)
here r – the number of experts, m the number of indicators evaluated, S – the sum of deviations of in
ranges from their average squared sum.
Table 3. Ranking of indicators on the basis of expert valuations
The value of coefficient of concordance that was computed according to formula (2) equals W
approaching to one. This means that expert valuations are not contradictory. The statistical level of com
experts is determined by the criterion computed with the help of formula (3).
2 12
( 1) ( 1)
S
x Wr m rm m
= = + (3)
If the value computed according to formula (3) is higher than the critical value from the table of distrib
degree of freedom v = m–1and the selected significance level α, which approaches 0, this mea
Expert
Indicator
1 2 3 4 5 6 Mean
rank
Sum of
ranks
1. Population growth rate (%)1 2 1 1 2 2 1.5 9
2. Level of unemployment (%)4 3 3 3 3 4 3.33 20
3. Inflation (%) 3 5 4 4 4 3 3.83 23
4. GDP growth rate (%) 6 7 5 6 5 6 5.83 35
5. GDP per capita 5 4 7 7 6 5 5.67 34
6. Export per capita 2 1 2 2 1 1 1.5 9
7. Import per capita 7 6 6 5 7 7 6.33 38
The sum of expert ranks 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 168
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1174 Algita Miečinskienė et al. / Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences 110 ( 2014 ) 1166 – 1175
valuations are compatible and they can be applied in multicriteria evaluation. The formula result equals
this value exceeds the critical value 14,92 with the significance level of α=0,05 and v=m–1=6 degree of
Based on the expert valuation and analysis of population data and economic indicators of the selected
the target markets have been set (Table 4). If the company orients toward western countries (EU countri
priority market for export would be the Netherlands market, and from the Eastern countries (CIS
Belorussian market should be selected.
Table 4. The expert valuation results
Region Country Value
CIS
Russia 104.96
Belorussia 132.27
Ukraine 42.98
Kazakhstan 114.28
EU
Denmark 150.29
Germany 143.29
France 121.3
Netherlands 198.27
Of course, the proposed method also has some limitations. According to Podvezko (2006), the expert v
are of stochastic nature: when the composition of the group of experts changes or the number
increasing or decreasing, the values of indicators’ evaluations will also change, together with the respec
ranks, and this, in turn, will impact the value of the coefficient of concordance W and the level of compat
valuations. Also, the weights of indicators change, and this will impact the values of the criteria
multicriteria method, the ranking of comparable objects and decision making. However, decisions are ma
framework of present situation, and any changes undoubtedly should be evaluated in the proces
analysis of the selected markets and modelling of export activity in these markets.
Conclusions
1. The efficient international trade of a company depends on the efficiency of the process of
research. A company cannot use all the possibilities present in international markets at one time; thus it
the markets for investment.
2. In the scientific literature the different methods and models for foreign market selection are propos
is no unique method, the usage of which would allow the company to export successfully its products int
markets. Each company should adapt the selected model for particular situation.
3. Various researchers distinguish different criteria, according to which the target markets are selected
often used criteria are: GDP, GDP per capita, imports, energy consumption, investment, cultural and geo
distance.
4. The authors of the paper used the following criteria for foreign market selection of furnitur
company: population growth rate, level of unemployment, inflation, GDP growth rate, GDP per capita, ex
capita and import per capita.
5. For target market selection the statistical data analysis and expert valuation method was used. On
the performed research, it was found out that the particular company could export into Belorussia from t
CIS countries and to the Netherlands market – from EU countries.
Acknowledgements
This research was funded by a grant (No. IEP-01/2012) from the Research Council of Lithuania.
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1175Algita Miečinskienė et al. / Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences 110 ( 2014 ) 1166 – 1175
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