Regional Rail Fleet Project: Risk, Feasibility, and Industry Analysis

The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the NSW Regional Rail Fleet project, focusing on risk management and feasibility. It begins with an introduction to the project, which involves replacing the aging regional rail fleet with new trains and developing a maintenance facility. The background section highlights the benefits of the new trains, such as reversible seating and electronic charging points, and the contract awarded to Momentum Trains. A literature review outlines the Project Management Risk Framework, which includes risk identification, treatment, evaluation, and publication. The report identifies various risks associated with the project, categorized into feasibility, cost and schedule, tender and award of contract, obligatory span, pile test, expansion joint, resource, and legal risks. The Western Australian Government's need for the project is discussed, emphasizing the benefits of new trains, customer engagement, and environmental impact. The project's feasibility is assessed from political, economic, social, operational, and technological aspects. The report also lists negative and positive risk events/conditions and concludes by emphasizing the importance of integrating project elements and managing risks effectively. The report includes references to support the analysis.

Regional Rail Fleet - NSW
Data Collection
3/15/2019

Regional Rail Fleet
Table of Contents
Introduction...........................................................................................................................................2
Background...........................................................................................................................................2
Literature Review..................................................................................................................................2
PM Risk Framework..........................................................................................................................2
Industry Report & Risk Identification...............................................................................................3
Western Australian Government’s Need for the Project........................................................................4
Project Feasibility..................................................................................................................................5
Negative and Positive Risk Events/Conditions......................................................................................5
Conclusion.............................................................................................................................................6
References.............................................................................................................................................7
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Introduction
The NSW Government is carrying out a project that will involve the replacement of the
ageing NSW regional rail fleet that are more than 36 years old. These will include the fleet of
XPT, XPLORER, and Endeavour trains. There will be a maintenance facility that will be
developed in Dubbo to encourage the development activities, regional economy, and create
enhanced opportunities for the people. The report includes the risk management framework
for the project along with the coverage of project need for Western Australian Government
and feasibility of the project.
Background
The new trains will be launched and they will run from Sydney to various regional regions of
NSW, such as Melbourne, Canberra, and Brisbane. There will be several benefits that will be
provided to the customers as a result. Reversible seating, overhead luggage storage,
accessible toilets, automatic selective door opening, and electronic device charging points are
some of the benefits that will be provided (Nsw, 2019).
The Government has given the contract to Momentum Trains. It is an international
consortium that comprises of UGL Rail Services, CAF, and other entities. The consortium
will start working on the new train fleet along with the maintenance facility in the year 2019.
It is estimated the first new trains will start running in 2023 and new fleet will progressively
come to service.
Literature Review
PM Risk Framework
Project Management Risk Framework is essential to identify and treat the risks associated
with the project. The risk management framework for such projects shall include five phases.
The first phase shall include risk identification and analysis. It shall be carried out before the
execution of the project and the major steps shall include the determination of new risk
sources. The second step shall include risk treatment and responsibility. It shall be done once
the data for risk identification and analysis is available. The risk treatment strategies shall be
mapped with the risks and the allocation of the responsibilities shall be accordingly done.
Dynamic risk treatment table shall then be developed and it shall be updated through the
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lifecycle. Risk treatment evaluation and monitoring shall be the next step in which the
treatment strategies and their implementation must be evaluated. The last shall be risk
publication and closure in which the risks shall be communicated and published formally and
the closure operations must be performed (Qing, Rengkui, Jun & Quanxin, 2014).
Some of the risk areas that may be associated with the railway construction and maintenance
projects may include feasibility risks, cost and schedule risks, risks in tender and award of
contract, risks in obligatory span, pile test risks, risks in expansion joint, resource risks, and
several others.
Industry Report & Risk Identification
On the basis of the project details and the use of risk sources, such as NSW Government
database, rail fleet information, interviews, observations, and domain analysis, there are
certain risks that have been identified for the project.
The risks along with their descriptions are included in the table below. There may also be
additional risks events and conditions that may be witnessed.
Risk ID Name/Category Description
1 Feasibility Risks The feasibility of the project will be essential from the
political, economic, social, operational, and technical
aspects. The inadequate determination of feasibility
may occur in the project.
2 Cost and Schedule
Risks
The first fleet of the new trains is expected to run in
2023 with progressive improvements and coverage.
There may be unwanted delays during the project due
to the involvement of several entities. The overall costs
of the project may also run higher than the expected
levels.
3 Tender & Award of
Contract Risks
The NSW Government has given the contract to
Momentum Trains for the project. The organization
may further outsource the project activities and the
involvement of various entities may bring up the
service terms and contractual issues.
4 Obligatory Span The project will include various phases with obligatory
span as one of the critical phases. There may be land
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acquisition issues and delays that may come up during
this span (Carr & Tah, 2011).
5 Pile Test Risks The use of static load testing processes for pile
foundation may lead to avoidance of certain issues
which may turn out to be serious matters of concern
(Sarkar, 2015).
6 Expansion Joint Improper installation of the expansion joints may bring
up service and operational issues for the trains.
7 Resource Risks The overall resource productivity may be impacted as
the project is of longer duration. The resources may
have conflicts among them or increased absenteeism of
the resources may impact the project (Hamzaoui,
Taillandier, Mehdizadeh, Breysse & Allal, 2014).
8 Legal Risks The change in the legal policies and regulations along
with the organizational policies may bring up the issues
of non-compliance and obligations.
Western Australian Government’s Need for the Project
The Western Australian Government needs the project as the ageing trains may suffer from
service and operational issues. Also, the ageing trains are not designed as per the latest
technology and may not be in line with the latest technological features.
The enhancement of the overall economy and the improved experience levels of the travellers
are the two primary factors for the government. The new trains will offer the customers with
a number of different benefits. Some of these will include wider and spacious seating space,
improved & advanced toilets, digital information screens and announcements to keep the
customers updated, better security, electronic charging points for the devices, and many
more. The customers will also be kept engaged throughout the project as there are several
customer groups that have been invited to provide their valuable feedback. The feedback
areas include the design, vision, and several other areas.
Environmental impact is another area that marks the need of the project for the Western
Australian Government. The project is needed for the government as the trains designed with
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the latest technology will adhere to the sustainability design and development goals. The
same will not be possible in the case of ageing trains.
Project Feasibility
The feasibility of the project will be needed in the areas as political, economic, social,
operational, and technology.
The NSW Government will fund the project and all the project approvals and acceptance will
be handled by the Government itself. The Government has provided the contract to
Momentum Trains and the decision-making activities will be primarily handled by the
Government to ensure the best interests of all the parties are preserved. The project will be
feasible from the political and economic aspects.
The customer groups will be kept involved during the design and other phases of the project.
Also, the project activities will be conducted as per the sustainability goals to ensure that
there is no damage done to the environment. The customers will also benefit from the
outcomes of the project and social acceptance will be ensured. The project will be feasible
from the social aspects (Allport, 2015).
The design and development of the new rail fleet will be done using the latest tools and
technology. The resources will also be hired on the basis of the required set of skills making
sure that operational efficiency is maintained. The project will therefore be feasible from the
operational and technological aspects (Carpintero & Petersen, 2013).
Negative and Positive Risk Events/Conditions
Risk ID Name/Category of the
Event/Condition
Negative or Positive
1 Feasibility Risks Negative
2 Cost and Schedule
Risks
Negative
3 Tender & Award of
Contract Risks
Negative
4 Obligatory Span Negative
5 Pile Test Risks Negative
6 Expansion Joint Negative
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7 Resource Risks Negative
8 Legal Risks Negative
9 Environmental
Conditions
Negative
10 Market Risks Positive
11 Supply Chain Risks Positive
12 Competitive Risks Positive
There are several risk events and conditions that may occur during the project timeline that
may be either positive or negative in nature. The majority of these events or conditions will
be negative as they may have an adverse implication on the project and its associated entities.
However, there may be certain positive conditions that may also occur. For instance, the
market inflation rates may positively impact the project budget. Similarly, positive supply
chains, such as early deliveries may be witnessed. The project is handled by the NSW
Government itself which has captured the market entirely (Tavakolan & Mohammadi, 2017).
The competitive risks in such case will be negligible and will have a positive implication on
the project.
Conclusion
The regional rail fleet project being carried out by the NSW Government is a critical and a
large-scale project. There will be several entities that will be involved in this project. It is,
therefore, essential that the project elements are integrated and the management of the project
areas is adequately done. Feasibility determination and risk management are some of the
significant project areas that shall be managed. The occurrence of the risks in such a project
may have severe impacts as the other areas in the project may also get impacted due to the
same. The overall project management must be ensured in this case.
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References
Allport, R. (2015). Pre-implementation planning – the weak link in rail projects.
Proceedings Of The ICE - Management, Procurement And Law. doi:
10.1680/mpal.1500010
Carpintero, S., & Petersen, O. (2013). PPP projects in transport: evidence from light rail
projects in Spain. Public Money & Management, 34(1), 43-50. doi:
10.1080/09540962.2014.865935
Carr, V., & Tah, J. (2011). A fuzzy approach to construction project risk assessment and
analysis: construction project risk management system. Advances In Engineering
Software, 32(10-11), 847-857. doi: 10.1016/s0965-9978(01)00036-9
Hamzaoui, F., Taillandier, F., Mehdizadeh, R., Breysse, D., & Allal, A. (2014). Evolutive
Risk Breakdown Structure for managing construction project risks: application to a
railway project in Algeria. European Journal Of Environmental And Civil
Engineering, 19(2), 238-262. doi: 10.1080/19648189.2014.939416
Nsw. (2019). Regional Rail Transport for NSW. Retrieved from
https://www.transport.nsw.gov.au/projects/current-projects/regional-rail
Qing, L., Rengkui, L., Jun, Z., & Quanxin, S. (2014). Quality Risk Management Model for
Railway Construction Projects. Procedia Engineering, 84, 195-203. doi:
10.1016/j.proeng.2014.10.426
Sarkar, D. (2015). Application of fuzzy failure mode effect analysis and expected value
method for project risk analysis of elevated corridor metro rail projects. International
Journal Of Decision Sciences, Risk And Management, 6(1), 34. doi:
10.1504/ijdsrm.2015.072753
Tavakolan, M., & Mohammadi, A. (2017). Risk management workshop application: a case
study of Ahwaz Urban Railway project. International Journal Of Construction
Management, 18(3), 260-274. doi: 10.1080/15623599.2017.1325112
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