Comprehensive Analysis of Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy

This report provides a comprehensive analysis of the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) monetary policy. It examines the direction of interest rates, highlighting the RBA's response to economic conditions, particularly in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic and its impact on government debt. The report delves into the key stages of the business cycle (expansion, peak, contraction, and trough), explaining how the RBA uses monetary policy to manage these cycles. Furthermore, it explores the impact of monetary policy and the business cycle on budget forecasts, including the implications for businesses and clients. The report concludes by emphasizing the RBA's role in maintaining economic growth and stability through its monetary policy decisions. The report references several journals and books related to the topic.

Reserve Bank Australia
Monetary Policy

Contents
INTRODUCTION......................................................................................................................................3
MAIN BODY..............................................................................................................................................3
Direction of interest rate..........................................................................................................................3
Highlight of 3 key reasons of business cycle stages................................................................................4
Client impact on budget forecast.............................................................................................................4
CONCLUSION..........................................................................................................................................5
REFERENCES............................................................................................................................................6

INTRODUCTION
Monetary policy, the free market of monetary strategy, consists of actions taken by a
government of a country to regulate spending in order to attain macroeconomic objectives which
encourage growth in the economy. It means the process of drawing up, announcing and
enforcing the implementation plan adopted by a region's banking system, single currency, or
even other qualified financial instrument, that regulates the amount of cash in the economy and
the networks through which additional wealth is generated. The Bank of the Reserve is
accountable for the monetary policy in Australia. Monetary policy includes regulating the
lending rate for collateral deposits in the capital markets (‘the money rate’). The bank rate affects
other financial lending rates, influencing lenders and creditor’s actions, economic growth and
eventually rate of inflation.
MAIN BODY
Direction of interest rate
The Bank has an obligation to respond to stable prices, higher wages as well as the
economic growth and wellbeing of the Australian people in deciding monetary policy. To
accomplish such regulatory targets, the Bank has a 'inflation plan' and aims to sustain medium-
term product cost growth in the nation to 2–3 per cent on average. Monetary policies retain the
supply of currency and, in the long run, promote sustainable and resilient economic
development. As per the analysis of statement of reserve bank of Australia it understands that
Interest rate move in low manner due to face international disease COVID 19. Governments
must issue debt in an atmosphere where interest rates are very low, greater competition for risk
investments and poor capital investment. The Government forecasts that the debt-to - GDP ratio
of developed countries will boost by upwards of 17 percent on average by 2020, mainly as a
result of the direct fiscal response to COVID-19. Interest rates in Australia might have been the
smallest they'll ever be. "Numerous analysts expect the RBA to cut rates in February, March
and/or April and finished up with low moment around May 2020 at 0.25 per cent. The present
0.75 per cent RBA levels could be the lowest of the scale already.
To set up small business require to take loan from the bank and pain interest on the
principal amount. Australia's Reserve Bank kept the cash rate untouched at its May gathering at a
record low of 0.25 per cent. Governments acknowledged that the country is going through a
difficult time, and estimated that production is likely to decline by about 10 percent over H1 and
6 percent throughout the year. The commission also decided to keep its yield target unaffected as
the debt markets functioned better. Governments said the bank has purchased about AUD 50.7
billion of shares since QE was launched and is expected to ramp up acquisitions once more to
guarantee bond markets stay alive.

Highlight of 3 key reasons of business cycle stages
Four distinct phases of business cycles are recognized: peak, trough, contraction and
expansion. Variations in the economic cycle happen across a long-term growth pattern and are
typically calculated by taking into account the growth rate of the actual gross domestic product.
Expansion: The period of growth is coming to a close as the market gets too hot. This is when
the rate of GDP growth reaches 3 per cent. Inflation tops 2 per cent and can hit multiple digits.
Shareholders are in a "extreme volatility" condition, as they build concentrations of assets.
Peak: The economy could be said to be "badly burned" at the height of the economic cycle.
Despite adding more staff, Regular upkeep costs's owners and employees are operating 7 days
per week and could not ramp up production. They cannot function any better or more quickly.
The rescue teams are therefore drained, and the quality of their work is starting to decline.
Consumers leave notes asking for jobs and facilities but the operator is too busy not answering
phone calls. Jobs get managed to finish late as teams are struggling to cover several work sites.
Contraction: As the economy continues to decline, company for routine maintenance is going to
decline down. They find themselves trapped in the office, so they don't get too many phone calls.
The employer will cut the price of his labor by reducing hours and minimizing shift jobs.
Trough: The trough is step four. That was the period the market is going from the period of low
to the stage of expansion. That's when the financial system tumbles down.
As per the discussion about the different stages it is analyzing that there are three key
highlights in regard of the stages:
 The National Bureau of Economic Research utilizes monthly GDP growth levels to
assess economic cycle stages. It also group time economic measures, such as wages, real
business profits, industrial output and industrial production.
 The business cycle is controlled by the law. Legislators have an effect on the economy
through fiscal policy. If they want to end a recession, they use the expansionary fiscal
strategy. They will implement expansionary fiscal policies to avoid excessive heat of the
market.
 The business cycle is aimed at keeping the population strong at a consistent level. To
everybody who needs one though inefficient enough yet to prevent inflation, it ought to
be sufficient to create employment.
Client impact on budget forecast
The economic activity as well as business cycle both is impacting on the budget forecast.
A client set up new business that time required to prepared a budget on estimation basis
accordingly follow all the activities of business. The business cycle helps to analyses the growth
of business and utilizes GDP growth. Federal spending, which gets taxed at what rates, and the
state's lending to make up for the shortfall between spending and debt, all affect the economic

growth of the country. As this happens, public spending will wash away personal pensions that
otherwise would have been invested in improving products for workers.
CONCLUSION
As per the above report it has been concluded that Reserve bank of Australia mainly
based on the monetary policy that operate by the bank. This bank decides all the assets and
liabilities and interest rate for the people. There are business cycle plays important role to
maintain monetary policy of business in positive manner and maintain growth and sustainability
of Government.

REFERENCES
Books and Journals
Kim, S. and Lim, K., 2018. Effects of monetary policy shocks on exchange rate in small open
Economies. Journal of Macroeconomics. 56. pp.324-339.
Ponomareva, N., Sheen, J. and Wang, B.Z., 2019. Does monetary policy respond to uncertainty?
Evidence from Australia. Australian Economic Review. 52(3). pp.336-343.
Dominguez‐Torres, H. and Hierro, L. A., 2019. The regional effects of monetary policy: A
survey of the empirical literature. Journal of Economic Surveys. 33(2). pp.604-638.
SHETA, A., 2018. Prediction Stock Market Exchange Prices for the Reserve Bank of Australia
Using Auto-Regressive with Exogenous Input Neural Network Model. WSEAS
Transactions on Systems. 17. pp.2224-2678.