Risk Perception and Analysis: Attitudes, Responses, and Legal Views

This report provides a comprehensive analysis of risk perception and its various facets, including societal attitudes, personal and societal responses, and legal and victim viewpoints. The report delves into historical perspectives, examining how societal attitudes towards risk have evolved, from the...Read More

Risk perception and analysis
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Course:

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Contents
Part A: Societal attitudes towards risk........................................................................................2
Part B: Personal and societal responses to risk..........................................................................7
Part C: Legal and victim views of risk.........................................................................................8
Exercise 1: Relevant legislation in a jurisdiction.........................................................................8
Exercise 2: The four common law tests of negligence from a defending lawyer point of view10
Exercise 3: Samarco Dam failure...............................................................................................12
References.....................................................................................................................................15

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Part A: Societal attitudes towards risk
People used to refer to the unknown reasons of societal risk as the "witchcraft" in Europe and
North America. As the society developed, the idea of the witch had been virtually eliminated.
Historically, the church did not believe in the witchcraft, but it took the responsibility of
sustaining the societal welfare. Today experiments take place to decide the real causes of risk in
different conditions. The modern science is against the self-delusion as it relies on the process of
critical inquiry to discover the source of errors and uncover the truth. Skeptical could provide
evidence that the witch effect does not exist in fact. The importance of the analysis of the witch
effect and the witchcraft phenomenon of the early days is to realize the fact that what actually
happens in the society and creates a risk to people is totally different from what they think as a
reason. This phenomenon leads us to learn from the past experiences and consider their effect
today. Also, the way the church had treated the fear of people from the natural risk that affected
them provides us with insights about the political system adopted in the past and how it had
affected peoples' life. The power of the institutions have been increased as they used peoples'
fear to govern people who believed that the evil was the cause of all the negative events, not the
princes and pops. The argument by Trevor-Roper that the witch craze exists in the mindset of the
renaissance, reveals that the human progress was not easy or simple. The political power used to
respond to the unknown risk rather than to investigate it and control its effects. This approach
represents a dream of risk-free life that would never take place (Clark 1980).
The basic nature of risk assessment is mainly caused by people interest in resource management.
The natural resources carry good and bad at the same time, for example, the river that carries
water necessary to drink and irrigation also brings floods. This context is more realistic than the

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witch effect, as people have to adapt and cope with the events rather than use their imaginations
and fiction to interpret the events that cause risk. The anthropological studies showed that the
early societies used to adjust peoples' behavior to cope with the environmental risks. On the
contrary, the modern societies have tended to pursue a different course of adaptation to reduce
the variability of nature and control the environment by using large, capital intense and long-
term projects. This modern approach could also succeed in achieving short-term goals. An
argument to the modern approach assumes that the short-term achievements were at the expense
of the long-term unexpected consequences, which means that policymakers did not consider the
uncalculated risk. The efforts made by the governments today aim to control risk, but each policy
has positive and negative effects. The control of a risk is responsible for another risk which is not
considered in planning for a solution to the first emerging risk. For example, preserving the
forests by sustaining their varied and preserving the biological conditions. The invariability of
the insecticides control, insects could spread in the entire forest, which requires continuous
efforts in R&D to prevent the evolution of the risk to become an epidemic. It is important to plan
for eliminating the causes of the risk rather than to focus on the symptoms (Clark 1980).
The same situation occurs in controlling the risk of the disease in the human beings. The control
of uncertainty may result in increased vulnerability to become a disaster. For example, polio
disease is still creating a big threat to the public health worldwide. The public health officials
seek to eliminate the disease from the entire population that is why they conduct campaigns to
ensure the total elimination of the disease. If the officials started to consider that polio does not
represent a risk anymore, this could lead the society to face a real epidemic. Here we assure
again that continuous monitoring and evaluation should take place to prevent any sort of
potential risk.

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Moreover, the evolutionary biology results in substantial genetic differences in the population's
survival. One form is likely to adapt to the environmental condition better than the others. Which
means that some people will be able to adapt to the environmental changes, while others will fail,
but the variation in the environment is likely to prevent a certain form from replacing the others.
It is a mercy from God that the environment changes or many types of lives that cannot adapt to
the environment would have been disappeared. The uncertainty of the natural system is a result
of the dynamism of the system. It evolves continuously, as policymakers think they could control
it and feel optimistic they are surprised by a wave of risk and hazard. The variability of the
natural system plays a critical role in creating and maintaining relationships among the system
components. The elimination of variability results in the creation of new relationships that people
find that they have to deal with a new sort of variability. This leads us to realize a fact that
resource management is a complex process that yields different and surprising new
circumstances over the time. The resource management scheme should be designed in a resilient
way to be able to cope with the unexpected conditions and the variability of the resource system.
To overcome the system variability, uncertainty-tolerant management policies have emerged in
the form of "soft-failure" system that goes beyond the resource management system. This
approach represents the aggregate risk assessment as it measures the probability of risk, makes
trade-offs, calculates the social risk-benefit and defines the common goods (Clark 1980).
Risk detection is very important to ensure the public safety. The advocates argue that regulation
failed to detect risk of introducing the American drugs. They seek the best safety conditions to
the public and people represented in the drug review panels. This situation represents an
argument of ensuring the public safety from different parties, the regulating party which is the
main responsible for assuring public safety, the advocates of the peoples' safety who argue that

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the regulatory framework did not provide sufficient guarantees for public safety and the peoples'
representatives in the drug review panel. The Congress which shows responsive action to the
importance of drug safety by intervening the FDA on regular bases. The Congress efforts failed
to meet the requests of the FDA in representing a legislative mandate that balances between the
risks and benefits of a public good in a democratic way. This situation transformed the public
safety issue into a political issue. Which means an involvement in the process of risk assessment
that considers the basic goals to contribute in the public interest. Joshua Lederberg –a systems
analytic- argues that issues related to the public health are complex, time-consuming and
expensive. That is why it should not be treated as a plausible safety measure as it might lead to
increase in the total risk. The experimental design is different from the routine issues.
Deregulation could be a solution, but it does not assure the total public safety. An appropriate
risk assessment needs to emerge from empirical experiences from different countries governed
by different regulations (Clark 1980).
The three represented approaches to risk management aim to manage risk to establish a more
predictable environment with better response to it through the contribution of different parties,
including, politicians, regulators, advocates and people. Collective efforts are coordinated in
order to manage the unexpected events that evolve continuously. Risk management is coping
with uncertainty in an effective way, with creativity and confidence to the changing
environment. Increasing the risk-taking ability should be the main target, not the accommodation
with the unknown as represented in the first approach. The three represented approaches show
the improvements in the human ability to manage risk through the knowledge of both of the risk
and the benefits, making trade-offs and the reaction to the unexpected changes in the
environment. Despite the emergence of the "risk-free" earning strategies, Boehm-Bawerk's Law

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theory has emerged. It assumes that the greater benefits could arise from the greater uncertainty
through risk-taking. This theory represents the basis of the strategic corporate planning, as
entrepreneurial success depends on its ability to take the risk. The ability of the entrepreneurs to
take risk is considered as a biological factor that enables them to cope with risk. Different
researchers have argued the issue of quality control and its effect in managing risk, others argue
the importance of a rigorous science to eliminate the exploitation and incompleteness that
characterize risk science today. This research has effectively differentiated between the old ways
of risk management by just responding to it and the contemporary risk management with its
ability to control risk and manage the social safety. Learning from errors is a central notion of
the modern policy analysis. The rational management is used to evaluate policies and its
evolution in different fields of examination (Clark 1980).

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Part B: Personal and societal responses to risk
An example of a societal risk is the great failure of Malaria control in Africa. Malaria is still the
most important parasitic disease that threatens the humans' lives. About 600 million malaria
cases occur every year and 1 million deaths because of it. The majority of infections takes place
in sub-Saharan Africa, it is considered an obstacle to development (Kouyaté et al. 2007; The
European Alliance Against Malaria 2007).
Item People affected by the disaster Management
Imposition People resist chloroquine, but they
accept pyrimethamine-sulfadoxine
Imposed antimalarial drug
worldwide called 'chloroquine'
Voluntariness People kept refusing chloroquine Volunteering efforts are made
by WHO and the UNICEF
Equitability Chloroquine is the main treatment
of Malaria in Burkina Faso. The
people resist this drug
Suggested to switch from the
chloroquine to ACT
State of
knowledge
Peoples' disagreement about risk
stems from their resistance to
change, they tend to reject any
information that seems
inconsistent with their beliefs.
The population state of knowledge
is high.
The management of societal
risks in Burkina Faso failed to
gain the acceptability of risk
to the community
Proximity People in Sub Saharan Africa are
the most affected people with the
Malaria pandemic. The proximity
of infection and death is very high
The proximity of risk is very
high as people refuse to take
the chloroquine and ACT is
not available in the market.
Time In the case of Malaria pandemic in
Burkina Faso, the consequences
happen as a continuous process as
nothing could prevent it.
No series actions were taken
by the government to set a
time limit to the expansion of
infection.
Extreme
value
The severity of risk that people
face increases. It also leads people
to focus on the extreme values of
consequences. It also represents a
high level of fear to people as their
children die daily with no hope for
The UNICEF argues for the
necessity of developing
strategies to prevent Malaria
and the adopt practices of
personal hygiene

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Item People affected by the disaster Management
a suitable solution.
Dread Malaria in Burkina Faso is highly
endemic and the main cause of
morbidity and even mortality
The ministry of health has
arranged for a national
meeting to discuss the options
of malaria treatment that
suggested to switch from the
chloroquine to ACT
Unknown People ignore the fact that the
ACT is unavailable in the market.
The World Health
Organization (WHO) also
discovered that the decision of
switching to ACT was not
developed in practice and the
drug is not available through
government health services
The UNICEF also argues for
the necessity of developing
strategies to prevent Malaria
and the adopt practices of
personal hygiene.
Number
affected
People and their children die every
day. As a result of the affection. It
kills a child every 30 seconds
About 600 million malaria
cases occur every year and 1
million deaths because of it.
Sources: Kouyaté et al. (2007), The European Alliance Against Malaria (2007), UNICEF
(2012), Slovic (1987) and Viner (2018).
Part C: Legal and victim views of risk
Exercise 1: Relevant legislation in a jurisdiction
The general statements of expectation of the Work Health and Safety Act 2012 of South
Australia (SafeWork SA 2012 p.1), are as follows:
 Establish health and safety duties, including the primary duty to protect any person
from exposure to hazards and risks that arise from work.

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 provide for worker representation, consultation and participation including through
Health and Safety Representatives and Health and Safety Committees.
12—Assessment of risk in relation to a class of hazards, tasks, circumstances or things (South
Auatralia 2017 p. 56)
(a) all hazards, tasks, things or circumstances in the class are the same; and
(b) the assessment of risks for the class does not result in any worker or other person
being exposed to a greater, additional or different risk to health and safety than if the risk
assessment were carried out in relation to each individual hazard, task, thing or
circumstance.
B. Regulations and codes of practice in relation to ‘reasonably practical’
According to the Government of South Australia (2015 P. 6-7):
'In accordance with SA Health Policy Directive – Work Health, Safety and Injury
Management, SA Health acknowledges that the strategic and operational management
of risk is integral to everyday sound management practice and good corporate and
clinical governance.
5. Roles and Responsibilities: The following Roles and Responsibilities are specific
to this policy directive and should be read in conjunction with SA Health Policy
Directive - Roles, Responsibilities and Governance (WHS):
5.1 Chief Executive / Deputy Chief Executives

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Will take reasonably practicable steps to:
• Exercise due diligence to ensure compliance with the intent of this policy directive
and associated procedure;
• Establish awareness and accountability for the implementation of this policy
directive.
Exercise 2: The four common law tests of negligence from a defending lawyer point of view
The case represents Samarco iron ore mine disaster that resulted in the collapse of the Fundão
dam at Mariana and caused a death of 19 people, damaging of villages and hundreds of homeless
people beside of the pollution of the river. Samarco is owned by BHP and fellow iron ore giant
Vale. It is considered as the largest disaster in Brazil's history (Lannin 2017). The case of
Samarco reveals the lack of an emergency plan, problems in the licensing process, failure of the
supervisory, and the negligence (Neotropica 2016). The four common law tests of negligence
could be discussed according to Thomson (2015), Belmans (2017) and Ong (2016), as follows:
 The test of causation: The government of Brazil is the plaintiff of the disaster and Samarco
has agreed to pay $US2.3 Bn. to the government to compensate the damages that took place
after the collapse of the Fundão dam.
 Foresee-ability: The investigations that took place after the disaster revealed that BHP, Vale
and Samarco are the direct responsibiles for the disaster due to a range of construction and
design flaws. This puts a burden on the owners of the mine and they will respond
accordingly.

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 Controllability: The owners of the mine confess their responsibility for the disaster and
decided to finance the efforts of cleaning up Samarco by allocating $US181 Mn. and $US133
million to the Renova Foundation, the charitable organization responsible for restoration
works and compensate people and $US48 Mn. to run the mine.
 Reasonableness: The owners of the mine take the responsibility of eliminating the
consequences of the disaster on the side of the environment, the homeless people and the
work activities in the mine.

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Exercise 3: Samarco Dam failure
The risk assessment techniques are used to describe the means of combining qualitative ratings
of consequence and probability to yield a risk rating (Peace 2017). Risk assessment is the basis
for successful health and safety management, it is essential for reducing the occupational
diseases and work-related accidents (Wijeratne, Perera & Silva 2014). The successful risk
management involves technical and social complementary functions. The social functions
include actions related to the institutional dynamics necessary to communicate and understand
the risk results and action implementation to reduce risk (Murnane, Simpson & Jongman 2016).
A. The expenditure of funds to improve understanding the dam’s condition
The disaster of the fall of the Samarco dam in 2016 has been negotiated by different
governmental entities to evaluate the environmental and socio-economic damage caused by the
disaster. The time period since the disaster happened is not enough to accurately evaluate the
environmental and socio-economic damage that happened as a result of the disaster. The
government has allocated a fixed amount of money of BRL 240 Mn. per year to cover the
expenditure needed for compensation of the disastrous consequences. These disbursements are
scheduled with a limited contribution for the first six years for the victims of the disaster. The
Federal Prosecutor's Office offers the settlements primarily to the companies to protect their
assets at the expense of the affected populations and the environmental needs. Moreover, it does
not offer a mechanism for any foundations to implement projects required by Samarco. The MPF
and the Public Prosecutor’s Office of the State of Minas Gerais in 2015 have established an
environmental guarantee of BRL 1 Bn. to fund the compensation. In addition, in order to better

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understand the consequences of the disaster, a multilateral agreement was established between
several governmental entities and Samarco in 2015 to conduct a series of measures for
emergencies including the water supply to certain cities (Salinas 2016).
B. The funds required to improve its stability by senior management at the mine
Management involves two components, risk determination and risk evaluation. The
determination of the risk consequences involves the consequences of the potential risk, its
magnitude and impact. The risk could be classified into four types of undesirable consequences
representing the different severity and predictability. Crockford (1986) as cited in Tummala &
Schoenherr (2011) classifies them in trivial, small, medium and large. He assumes that the trivial
consequences occur with a very high frequency,
Many financial advisors and fund boards are reevaluating the organizational structures in relation
to risk management through the adoption of more formal risk management practices. They adopt
different approaches according to size, resources, business type and complexity of funds (The
Investment Company Institute 2011). Stakeholders have to adapt to the needs and dedicate
internal and external resources to assist in the risk management needs (Deloitte 2016).
With regard to the previous analysis, the severity of the Fundão dam collapse is very high. After
one year of the disaster, 43 million m3 of iron ore are still causing environmental damage and
polluting 668 km of water (Do Carmoa et al. 2017).
BHP Billiton Brasil Ltda has signed an agreement to fund a US$181 Mn. to support Renova
Foundation and Samarco Minera financially. About US$48 Mn. were allocated to Samarco to
carry the ongoing repair works in the short-run and cover facilities to support restart planning

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with a value of US$42 Mn. and the rest of the fund of US$6 Mn. were allocated to fund the
experts contracted with the compensation programs (BHP Billiton 2017). Moreover, the total
support allocated to Samarco by the various stakeholders accounted for US$137,097 in the first
half of 2017 and US$142,000 in the second half of 2017. It is also expected that two more
stakeholders will contribute with US$313,000 to directly fund the compensation programs
continuously. All of these agreements are held under the control of Samarco (Samarco 2016).

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