Swinburne University: Quantified Risk Modelling Assignment - Part 1

This assignment addresses quantified risk modeling for various engineering scenarios. Part 1 analyzes the potential consequences of a bridge collapse, industrial explosion, and train derailment, including loss of life, disruption, and financial costs. It examines the parameters influencing each risk, such as construction materials, maintenance, and safety procedures. The report presents data and risk diagrams, including probability and impact assessments. The student provides mitigation strategies, such as implementing stringent safety measures, regular maintenance, and improved construction procedures, to reduce the likelihood and impact of these events. The assignment also includes financial considerations, highlighting the cost-effectiveness of preventative measures and the payback period for investments in safety and infrastructure.

Part 1
Question A
In a situation where a bridge happens to collapse the expected result would be loss of life,
disruption of transport, and redirection of public funds towards repair and reconstruction.
Moreover, the collapsing of a bridge is more than likely to introduce stringent reforms in local
construction practices as a way to mitigate future losses. An industrial explosion is likely to
generate superheated debris that will cause serious harm and even death to workers. In addition,
an industrial explosion is capable of resulting in decrement of products in the supply chain and
the removal of a significant competitor from the marketplace. Lastly, train derailment can result
in the destruction of millions of dollars worth of cargo, and human life. Furthermore, it can result
in significant suspension of scheduled train movement between start and destination.
Question B
Parameters associated tThe risk of a bridge collapse is influenced by several factors such as:
building material used, construction technique, age of the bridge, maintenance, and frequency of
use. It is estimated that thousands of bridge across Australia face the risk of collapse due to
neglect, poor maintenance, and frequent usage. In an industrialized nation like Australia the risk
of industrial explosion is a very real threat to the safety of the entire workforce of an
organization. Industrial explosions are caused by a number of things such as carelessness,
negligence, faulty machine, leakage of flammable fluids, poor training of employees, and
ineffective production procedures. The risk of train derailment is anchored on matters of proper
railway maintenance, track construction procedures, and obsolete train engines.
Question C

These results are as follows for all the working I the excel worksheet
Derailment of Train
1
4
7
10
13
16
19
22
25
28
31
34
37
40
43
46
49
52
55
58
61
64
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Damage level to Train Tracks
V1 V2
Squat
Value
1
4
7
10
13
16
19
22
25
28
31
34
37
40
43
46
49
52
55
58
61
64
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
Average Track Damage and Likelihood of Train Derailment
Change in Length FProb
Squats
Values
Bridge Collapse

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 higher
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14 Bridge Collapse Statistics
Sample Population (1987 to 2011) Midwest State I (1990 to 2008) Midwest StateII (1990 to 2008)
Southwest State (1996 to 2008) Southern State (1990 to 2008) Mid-Atlantic State I (1990 to 2008)
Mid-Atlantic State II (1990 to 2008)
Industrial Explosion
Release from joints of upstream pipeline
Compressor completely failed causing release
Release from impeller
Release from seal
Release from casing of compressor
Release from upstream pipeline
Ignition due to explosion energy
Ignition due to external heat from surrounding
Ignition due to electric spark
Release from junction of pump and pipeline
Release from rotor
Pump failed to operate causing release
Release from casing
Release from downstream pipeline
Release from joints of downstream pipeline
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
Industrial Explosion
Failure probability Importance degree of probability
Question D

In order to mitigate the risk of an industrial explosion, industrial companies should implement
stringent safety and emergency procedures that are easy to implement and adhere to. Moreover,
these organizations should ensure that all employees are educated on the importance of this
safety and emergency measures. Train derailments can be reduced by more than 50% if regular
maintenance and repair of railway tracks is performed by the engineers. This will ensure that any
form or break and distortion on the tracks is recognized early and dealt with. Lastly, the collapse
of bridges in Australia can be mitigated through the monitoring of construction material and
procedures. Majority of collapse incidents are associated with a poor construction procedures
and use of suboptimal material.
Question E
Better safety and emergency procedure will ensure that individuals are able to understand how
they are expected to behave in case of an accident that can result inconsiderable damage or loss
of life. Through the implementation of regular maintenance check the railway companies can
mitigate the issue of derailment because breakages and obstructions can be found and repaired.
The construction procedures used in the design of most Australian bridges needs to be improved
in order to improve their lifespan and carrying capacity.
Question F
Safety and emergency procedures will mitigate the employment of different resources meaning
recurrent cost will be greatly reduced. The cost of training and upholding safety measures is
considerably reduced in subsequent years making the process considerably effective. Through
regular maintenance and repair procedures railway companies will be able to eliminate recurrent
costs associated with procurement of new cargo carts, repair costs, and repayment of lost

inventory to clients. The payback period on proper bridge construction is expected to be
somewhere between 3-5 years; which implies that the process is considerably effective in the
resolution of collapsing issues.