Risk Analysis and Mitigation for WA Train Modernization Project

This report provides a comprehensive risk analysis of the Western Australia (WA) train modernization and replacement project. It identifies potential risks such as level crossing accidents, environmental hazards from construction, and operational challenges. The analysis includes a hazard frequency and severity assessment, proposing mitigation strategies for intolerable risks. Recommendations focus on public sensitization, improved road signage, and adherence to environmental regulations to minimize pollution. The report emphasizes the importance of establishing a historical risk database for future projects, offering insights into risk management within the Australian railway context.

Running Head: RISK ANALYSIS 1
Risk Analysis
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Contents
RISK ANALYSIS...........................................................................................................................3
Introduction......................................................................................................................................3
Risks................................................................................................................................................4
Risk analysis................................................................................................................................4
Identified risks.........................................................................................................................6
Identification of hazards..........................................................................................................6
Risk mitigation.........................................................................................................................7
Environmental risk.......................................................................................................................7
Mitigation................................................................................................................................7
Recommendations............................................................................................................................8
Use of elaborate road signs and public sensitization...................................................................8
Outline regulations that guide environmental pollution..............................................................8
Conclusion.......................................................................................................................................8

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Introduction
Railway transport is always viewed as a mechanism that can spur economic and social
growth in a country. Establishing a new railway line or improving the existing one is always a
step towards achieving this growth. Replacement of the WA trains is a step towards achieving
the goal. It is important given the role railway transport plays in the economic development in
Australia. The government has introduced numerous legislations that will enable a more efficient
railway network is established in the country. However, there are potential risks that can be faced
due to the current technological developments, (Infrastructure.gov.au, 2019. This paper will
discuss the possible risks assessed in the modernization and replacement of the WA trains that
will serve the whole country.
Risks
Risks are an expansive subject that many scholars have developed interests in its
definition based on various subjects. According to Dindar, Kaewunruen, and An, (2019), a risk is
an injury or loss that is as a result of exposure to hazardous conditions. Quantitatively, risk can
be defined in relation to the danger that can potentially lead to adverse results.
Risk analysis
Risk analysis involves the general estimation of the number of times an accidental event
can occur and the probable outcome. The estimation can be achieved based on the previous data
about accidents that occurred, the expert’s opinion or from the fault tree analysis. Analysis of the

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consequences is important at it will expose the apparent hazards as well as those that can only be
realized after the accident has happened, (Harris, Riley, Sainsbury, Kent, and Baum, 2018).
Identification and description of a chain of events that lead to the occurrence of an accident must
be conducted.
The first advantage is a sequence of events is portrayed when consequences can be
discretely analyzed. Risk analysis would be more beneficial if all categories of outcomes are
included, railway personnel, environmental damage, the passengers, economic losses, company
reputation as well as an operational derailment, (Castillo, Calviño, Grande, Sánchez‐
Cambronero, Gallego, Rivas, and Menéndez, 2016). The losses incurred can be estimated in
monetary terms, a number of human lives lost.
When historical data of past events is not available, an ordinal hazard frequency scale can
be used to determine the probability of risk occurrence. The table below shows an estimate of
hazard frequency and a possible outcome
Score Frequency class Severity class
1 Very unlikely Minor
2 Remote Major
3 Occasional Critical
4 Probable Catastrophic

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5 Frequent catastrophic
When evaluating the risks, classification and decisions are arrived at given the tolerability
of the present risk. If risks are found to be at intolerable levels, drastic precaution is taken so as
to bring it back to the tolerable levels. At this level, mitigation is applied given that cost is
relatively lower.
Identified risks
Level crossing (LC)
Level crossing refers to an intersection between a railway line and a road. This allows
vehicles to pass through the rail. Accidents can occur here involving the incoming train and other
users, (vehicles, pedestrians). The point where an accident can occur thus should be marked as a
danger zone, (Bloomfield, Bendele, Bishop, Stroud, and Tonks, 2016). Different LCs has
different accidents frequency due to the different speed the trains are at them as well as the
frequency in which trains pass on them, (Harris et al, 2019). Thus these places possess numerous
hazards that can lead to rail users exposed to risks.
Identification of hazards
In order to properly identify the hazards posed, there was consideration of different
parameters that are involved in the LC. Classification of operations was also considered given
the scope that the new trains will cover putting into consideration environmental factors that may

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have a greater influence on the hazards, (Yang, 2018). Example of this is the hazards that are
related to the visibility of LC users. The table below summarizes the hazards found.
Hazards
Disregard of signals by the drivers
Indiscipline from the members of the public
Improper5 closure of gates
Poor roads making it difficult for vehicles crossing the LC
Risk mitigation
Since the new trains will be venturing into a new area of operations, there will be no
previous data to gauge the frequency and the consequences expected. Classifications can be used
as shown in table 1. From the classification, human-based and technical problems are intolerable.
To mitigate this, a step should be taken to mitigate the risks.
Environmental risk
Usage of machinery in the construction process emits more dangerous effluents to the
environment, (Environment.gov.au. 2019). People living in areas where the railway line passes
get displaced; those living along the line are exposed to greater danger in terms of noise pollution
as well as chemicals emitted from the machines used.

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Mitigation
Eliminating environmental pollution cannot be done entirely. In order to minimize the
amount of pollution, environmental laws should be complied with, (Zou & Yang, 2015). The
treatment plant can be set up where the affluent can be treated before being released to the
environment.
Recommendations
Use of elaborate road signs and public sensitization
The government and all stakeholders should be sensitized on the operations of LCs. They
are required to take note of any signal of hazard while at these places. Plans that will be set for
risk management should have a clear mitigation process set out in case there is occurrence of
risk.
Outline regulations that guide environmental pollution
Quality life of citizens and other living organism depend on cleanliness of the environment they
live on. In order to ensure that the environment remains clean so as to sustain life, the NSW
government should make sure that minimal levels of pollution are released to the environment. It
should ensure that affluent treating sites are set up. This will lead to the release of less harmful
materials to the environment.
Conclusion
This paper has integrated railway risk management to the Australian context. Clearly, it has
illustrated the risk analysis process that includes the identification of hazards and classifications
of these hazards by the degree of consequences of the risks they pose. The classification was

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based on the fault tree analysis. When carrying out the project, mitigation processes for the risks
should be put in place. Finally, there is emphasis to have historical risk database where future
risk analysis will be based.

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References
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