Risk Modeling Report

This report presents a risk modeling analysis focusing on demolition costs. It utilizes simulation data to determine the probability distribution of total demolition costs, revealing a significant range between minimum and maximum values. The analysis highlights a substantial standard deviation, indicating considerable variation in costs across different locations. The report also examines the cost of contingencies and change in risk class, comparing actual values against expected values. A probability distribution chart illustrates the distribution of mitigation purchase values, showing a concentration around £1,000,000. The report concludes by suggesting the need for cost-cutting measures to reduce the gap between total cost and expected value.

RISK MODELING

TABLE OF CONTENTS
Question 1....................................................................................................................................................................................................3
Optimum combinations of mitigation that must be purchased................................................................................................................3
Question 2..................................................................................................................................................................................................21
Probability distribution of total cost of demolition................................................................................................................................23
REFERENCES..........................................................................................................................................................................................24
Table 1Model of expenses.........................................................................................................................................................................19
Table 2Modeling for incident free and uncertain risk...............................................................................................................................21

Question 1
5.0% 5.0%
10.00010.000
8.89.09.29.49.69.810.010
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
Cost of Contingencies / Change in Risk Class
Cost of Contingencies / Change in Risk Class
Minimum 10.0000
Maximum 10.0000
Mean 10.0000
Std Dev 0.0000
Values 10000@RISK Trial VersionFor Evaluation Purposes Only
Simulation Summary Information
Workbook Name Copy of SignalBoxRiskRegisterSolutionV29FINAL1485580347(January
31)-1.xlsx, Copy of SignalBoxRiskRegister1483777554(January 31) (1)
(1).xlsx
Number of
Simulations
1
Number of Iterations 10000
Number of Inputs 0
Number of Outputs 35
Sampling Type Latin Hypercube
Simulation Start Time 1/31/2017 16:44
Simulation Duration 00:01:09
Random # Generator RAN3I
Random
Seed
1838075264

Summary Statistics for Cost of Contingencies / Change in Risk Class
Statistics Percentile
Minimum 10 5% 10
Maximum 10 10% 10
Mean 10 15% 10
Std Dev 0 20% 10
Variance 0 25% 10
Skewness 1.01E+300 30% 10
Kurtosis 1.01E+300 35% 10
Median 10 40% 10
Mode 10 45% 10
Left X 10 50% 10
Left P 5% 55% 10
Right X 10 60% 10
Right P 95% 65% 10
Diff X 0 70% 10
Diff P 90% 75% 10
#Errors 0 80% 10
Filter Min Off 85% 10
Filter
Max
Off 90% 10
#Filtered 0 95% 10
Name
Class changes
made / Cost
Cost of
Contingencies
/ Change in
Risk Class
Cost of
Contingencies
/ Change in
Risk Class
Cost of
Contingencies
/ Change in
Risk Class
Cost of
Contingencies
/ Change in
Risk Class
Cost of
Contingencies
/ Change in
Risk Class
Cost of
Contingencies
/ Change in
Risk Class
Cost of
Contingencies
/ Change in
Risk Class
Description Output Output Output Output Output Output Output Output
Iteration /
Cell $H$652 $T$16 $T$39 $T$61 $T$82 $T$104 $T$125 $T$147
1 11.00 7 13 8 11 7 13 10
2 11.00 7 13 8 11 7 13 10

3 11.00 7 13 8 11 7 13 10
4 11.00 7 13 8 11 7 13 10
5 11.00 7 13 8 11 7 13 10
6 11.00 7 13 8 11 7 13 10
7 11.00 7 13 8 11 7 13 10
8 11.00 7 13 8 11 7 13 10
9 11.00 7 13 8 11 7 13 10
10 11.00 7 13 8 11 7 13 10
11 11.00 7 13 8 11 7 13 10
12 11.00 7 13 8 11 7 13 10
13 11.00 7 13 8 11 7 13 10
14 11.00 7 13 8 11 7 13 10
15 11.00 7 13 8 11 7 13 10
16 11.00 7 13 8 11 7 13 10
17 11.00 7 13 8 11 7 13 10
18 11.00 7 13 8 11 7 13 10
19 11.00 7 13 8 11 7 13 10
20 11.00 7 13 8 11 7 13 10
21 11.00 7 13 8 11 7 13 10
22 11.00 7 13 8 11 7 13 10
23 11.00 7 13 8 11 7 13 10
24 11.00 7 13 8 11 7 13 10
25 11.00 7 13 8 11 7 13 10
26 11.00 7 13 8 11 7 13 10
27 11.00 7 13 8 11 7 13 10
28 11.00 7 13 8 11 7 13 10
29 11.00 7 13 8 11 7 13 10
30 11.00 7 13 8 11 7 13 10
31 11.00 7 13 8 11 7 13 10
32 11.00 7 13 8 11 7 13 10
33 11.00 7 13 8 11 7 13 10

34 11.00 7 13 8 11 7 13 10
35 11.00 7 13 8 11 7 13 10
36 11.00 7 13 8 11 7 13 10
37 11.00 7 13 8 11 7 13 10
38 11.00 7 13 8 11 7 13 10
39 11.00 7 13 8 11 7 13 10
40 11.00 7 13 8 11 7 13 10
41 11.00 7 13 8 11 7 13 10
42 11.00 7 13 8 11 7 13 10
43 11.00 7 13 8 11 7 13 10
44 11.00 7 13 8 11 7 13 10
45 11.00 7 13 8 11 7 13 10
46 11.00 7 13 8 11 7 13 10
47 11.00 7 13 8 11 7 13 10
48 11.00 7 13 8 11 7 13 10
49 11.00 7 13 8 11 7 13 10
50 11.00 7 13 8 11 7 13 10
51 11.00 7 13 8 11 7 13 10
52 11.00 7 13 8 11 7 13 10
53 11.00 7 13 8 11 7 13 10
54 11.00 7 13 8 11 7 13 10
55 11.00 7 13 8 11 7 13 10
56 11.00 7 13 8 11 7 13 10
57 11.00 7 13 8 11 7 13 10
58 11.00 7 13 8 11 7 13 10
59 11.00 7 13 8 11 7 13 10
60 11.00 7 13 8 11 7 13 10
61 11.00 7 13 8 11 7 13 10
62 11.00 7 13 8 11 7 13 10
63 11.00 7 13 8 11 7 13 10
64 11.00 7 13 8 11 7 13 10

65 11.00 7 13 8 11 7 13 10
66 11.00 7 13 8 11 7 13 10
67 11.00 7 13 8 11 7 13 10
68 11.00 7 13 8 11 7 13 10
69 11.00 7 13 8 11 7 13 10
70 11.00 7 13 8 11 7 13 10
71 11.00 7 13 8 11 7 13 10
72 11.00 7 13 8 11 7 13 10
73 11.00 7 13 8 11 7 13 10
Cost
of
Conti
ngenci
es /
Chang
e in
Risk
Class
Cost
of
Conti
ngenci
es /
Chang
e in
Risk
Class
Cost
of
Conti
ngenci
es /
Chang
e in
Risk
Class
Cost
of
Conti
ngenci
es /
Chang
e in
Risk
Class
Cost
of
Conti
ngenci
es /
Chang
e in
Risk
Class
Cost
of
Conti
ngenci
es /
Chang
e in
Risk
Class
Cost
of
Conti
ngenci
es /
Chang
e in
Risk
Class
Cost
of
Conti
ngenci
es /
Chang
e in
Risk
Class
Cost
of
Conti
ngenci
es /
Chang
e in
Risk
Class
Cost
of
Conti
ngenci
es /
Chang
e in
Risk
Class
Cost
of
Conti
ngenci
es /
Chang
e in
Risk
Class
Cost
of
Conti
ngenci
es /
Chang
e in
Risk
Class
Cost
of
Conti
ngenci
es /
Chang
e in
Risk
Class
Cost
of
Conti
ngenci
es /
Chang
e in
Risk
Class
Cost
of
Conti
ngenci
es /
Chang
e in
Risk
Class
Outpu
t
Outpu
t
Outpu
t
Outpu
t
Outpu
t
Outpu
t
Outpu
t
Outpu
t
Outpu
t
Outpu
t
Outpu
t
Outpu
t
Outpu
t
Outpu
t
Outpu
t
$T$16
8
$T$19
0
$T$21
1
$T$23
3
$T$25
5
$T$27
6
$T$29
8
$T$31
9
$T$34
1
$T$36
3
$T$38
5
$T$40
7
$T$42
9
$T$45
2
$T$47
4
9 10 11 8 9 10 7 11 11 10 8 10 12 11 10
9 10 11 8 9 10 7 11 11 10 8 10 12 11 10
9 10 11 8 9 10 7 11 11 10 8 10 12 11 10
9 10 11 8 9 10 7 11 11 10 8 10 12 11 10
9 10 11 8 9 10 7 11 11 10 8 10 12 11 10
9 10 11 8 9 10 7 11 11 10 8 10 12 11 10
9 10 11 8 9 10 7 11 11 10 8 10 12 11 10
9 10 11 8 9 10 7 11 11 10 8 10 12 11 10

9 10 11 8 9 10 7 11 11 10 8 10 12 11 10
9 10 11 8 9 10 7 11 11 10 8 10 12 11 10
9 10 11 8 9 10 7 11 11 10 8 10 12 11 10
9 10 11 8 9 10 7 11 11 10 8 10 12 11 10
9 10 11 8 9 10 7 11 11 10 8 10 12 11 10
9 10 11 8 9 10 7 11 11 10 8 10 12 11 10
9 10 11 8 9 10 7 11 11 10 8 10 12 11 10
9 10 11 8 9 10 7 11 11 10 8 10 12 11 10
9 10 11 8 9 10 7 11 11 10 8 10 12 11 10
9 10 11 8 9 10 7 11 11 10 8 10 12 11 10
9 10 11 8 9 10 7 11 11 10 8 10 12 11 10
9 10 11 8 9 10 7 11 11 10 8 10 12 11 10
9 10 11 8 9 10 7 11 11 10 8 10 12 11 10
9 10 11 8 9 10 7 11 11 10 8 10 12 11 10
9 10 11 8 9 10 7 11 11 10 8 10 12 11 10
9 10 11 8 9 10 7 11 11 10 8 10 12 11 10
9 10 11 8 9 10 7 11 11 10 8 10 12 11 10
9 10 11 8 9 10 7 11 11 10 8 10 12 11 10
9 10 11 8 9 10 7 11 11 10 8 10 12 11 10
9 10 11 8 9 10 7 11 11 10 8 10 12 11 10
9 10 11 8 9 10 7 11 11 10 8 10 12 11 10
9 10 11 8 9 10 7 11 11 10 8 10 12 11 10
9 10 11 8 9 10 7 11 11 10 8 10 12 11 10
9 10 11 8 9 10 7 11 11 10 8 10 12 11 10
9 10 11 8 9 10 7 11 11 10 8 10 12 11 10
9 10 11 8 9 10 7 11 11 10 8 10 12 11 10
9 10 11 8 9 10 7 11 11 10 8 10 12 11 10
9 10 11 8 9 10 7 11 11 10 8 10 12 11 10
9 10 11 8 9 10 7 11 11 10 8 10 12 11 10
9 10 11 8 9 10 7 11 11 10 8 10 12 11 10
9 10 11 8 9 10 7 11 11 10 8 10 12 11 10

9 10 11 8 9 10 7 11 11 10 8 10 12 11 10
9 10 11 8 9 10 7 11 11 10 8 10 12 11 10
9 10 11 8 9 10 7 11 11 10 8 10 12 11 10
9 10 11 8 9 10 7 11 11 10 8 10 12 11 10
9 10 11 8 9 10 7 11 11 10 8 10 12 11 10
9 10 11 8 9 10 7 11 11 10 8 10 12 11 10
9 10 11 8 9 10 7 11 11 10 8 10 12 11 10
9 10 11 8 9 10 7 11 11 10 8 10 12 11 10
9 10 11 8 9 10 7 11 11 10 8 10 12 11 10
9 10 11 8 9 10 7 11 11 10 8 10 12 11 10
9 10 11 8 9 10 7 11 11 10 8 10 12 11 10
9 10 11 8 9 10 7 11 11 10 8 10 12 11 10
9 10 11 8 9 10 7 11 11 10 8 10 12 11 10
9 10 11 8 9 10 7 11 11 10 8 10 12 11 10
9 10 11 8 9 10 7 11 11 10 8 10 12 11 10
9 10 11 8 9 10 7 11 11 10 8 10 12 11 10
9 10 11 8 9 10 7 11 11 10 8 10 12 11 10
9 10 11 8 9 10 7 11 11 10 8 10 12 11 10
9 10 11 8 9 10 7 11 11 10 8 10 12 11 10
9 10 11 8 9 10 7 11 11 10 8 10 12 11 10
9 10 11 8 9 10 7 11 11 10 8 10 12 11 10
9 10 11 8 9 10 7 11 11 10 8 10 12 11 10
9 10 11 8 9 10 7 11 11 10 8 10 12 11 10
9 10 11 8 9 10 7 11 11 10 8 10 12 11 10
9 10 11 8 9 10 7 11 11 10 8 10 12 11 10
9 10 11 8 9 10 7 11 11 10 8 10 12 11 10
9 10 11 8 9 10 7 11 11 10 8 10 12 11 10
9 10 11 8 9 10 7 11 11 10 8 10 12 11 10
9 10 11 8 9 10 7 11 11 10 8 10 12 11 10
9 10 11 8 9 10 7 11 11 10 8 10 12 11 10
9 10 11 8 9 10 7 11 11 10 8 10 12 11 10

9 10 11 8 9 10 7 11 11 10 8 10 12 11 10
9 10 11 8 9 10 7 11 11 10 8 10 12 11 10
9 10 11 8 9 10 7 11 11 10 8 10 12 11 10
Cost of Contingencies /
Change in Risk Class
Cost of Contingencies /
Change in Risk Class
Cost of Contingencies /
Change in Risk Class
Cost of Contingencies /
Change in Risk Class
Cost of Contingencies /
Change in Risk Class
Cost of Con
Change in R
Output Output Output Output Output Output
$T$496 $T$518 $T$540 $T$563 $T$585 $T$607
10 12 9 10 8 8
10 12 9 10 8 8
10 12 9 10 8 8
10 12 9 10 8 8
10 12 9 10 8 8
10 12 9 10 8 8
10 12 9 10 8 8
10 12 9 10 8 8
10 12 9 10 8 8
10 12 9 10 8 8
10 12 9 10 8 8
10 12 9 10 8 8
10 12 9 10 8 8
10 12 9 10 8 8
10 12 9 10 8 8
10 12 9 10 8 8
10 12 9 10 8 8
10 12 9 10 8 8
10 12 9 10 8 8
10 12 9 10 8 8
10 12 9 10 8 8
10 12 9 10 8 8

10 12 9 10 8 8
10 12 9 10 8 8
10 12 9 10 8 8
10 12 9 10 8 8
10 12 9 10 8 8
10 12 9 10 8 8
10 12 9 10 8 8
10 12 9 10 8 8
10 12 9 10 8 8
10 12 9 10 8 8
10 12 9 10 8 8
10 12 9 10 8 8
10 12 9 10 8 8
10 12 9 10 8 8
10 12 9 10 8 8
10 12 9 10 8 8
10 12 9 10 8 8
10 12 9 10 8 8
10 12 9 10 8 8
10 12 9 10 8 8
10 12 9 10 8 8
10 12 9 10 8 8
10 12 9 10 8 8
10 12 9 10 8 8
10 12 9 10 8 8
10 12 9 10 8 8
10 12 9 10 8 8
10 12 9 10 8 8
10 12 9 10 8 8
10 12 9 10 8 8
10 12 9 10 8 8

10 12 9 10 8 8
10 12 9 10 8 8
10 12 9 10 8 8
10 12 9 10 8 8
10 12 9 10 8 8
10 12 9 10 8 8
10 12 9 10 8 8
10 12 9 10 8 8
10 12 9 10 8 8
10 12 9 10 8 8
10 12 9 10 8 8
10 12 9 10 8 8
10 12 9 10 8 8
10 12 9 10 8 8
10 12 9 10 8 8
10 12 9 10 8 8
10 12 9 10 8 8
10 12 9 10 8 8
10 12 9 10 8 8
10 12 9 10 8 8
Interpretation
Maximum risk category for mitigation is 11. There are many areas where mitigation expenses are almost reduced to zero.
Moreover, expenditures are made within the limit. However, risk in many areas is very high and due to this reason simulation model
generate high risk category. It can be said that further steps need to be taken to reduce risk.