STT100 Statistics: Analyzing Afghanistan's Median Age and Demographics

This report presents a statistical analysis of Afghanistan's median age, comparing it to the global average. The study formulates a hypothesis and conducts a Z-test, concluding that Afghanistan's median age is significantly lower. The analysis attributes this difference to the prolonged War in Afghanistan, which has led to high mortality rates, particularly among specific age groups, including the army, civilians, and children. The report also explores the destruction of infrastructure, especially medical facilities, which further increases mortality rates, especially of infants and children, thereby reducing the median age. It then discusses the economic consequences of a young population, highlighting both the potential labor force and the need for skill development. Finally, the report emphasizes the need for peace and stability, along with government policies focused on education, to capitalize on the demographic dividend. The report concludes by acknowledging barriers such as the ongoing conflict, which hinder Afghanistan from fully realizing its economic potential.

STT100 Statistics

STT100 Statistics
Country Selection
The analysis gives the average median age globally as 30.74 years old. Considering Afghanistan
as the country of choice, the median age for the country is 18.9 years old. This can be observed
from the results in the Appendix.
Hypothesis
Let μ0 represent the median age in Afghanistan and xbar represent the average median age
globally. The null hypothesis will therefore be as follows:
H0: μ0 > xbar
The corresponding alternative hypothesis is as follows
H1: μ0 ≤ xbar
Level of significance.
The α level of significance for this case is taken as 0.05, implying that the hypothesis above will
be tested for whether there is a 95% difference between the median age in Afghanistan and the
global average median age.
Critical Value
Given that the level of significance is 0.05 and the hypothesis test is a one-tailed hypothesis test,
therefore, the corresponding tabulated Z Score value will be 1.645.
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Test Statistic
The test statistics, Z, is calculated using the formula below (Barbara & Susan, 2014);
In this case, xbar = 30.74, μ0 = 18.9, from the analysis results σ = 8.889 (standard deviation) and
n = 230. Therefore, replacing these figures in the formula above gives:
Decision
The value of the test statistic, Z = 20.20 is greater than the critical value = 1.645. Hence, it falls
outside the acceptance region and we reject the null hypothesis, H0: μ0 > xbar, concluding that the
median age in Afghanistan is less than or equal to the global average median age.
Reasons for Age difference
The demographic characteristics of Afghanistan are mainly shaped by the War in Afghanistan
that has lasted over a period of 18 years from the year 2001 to date (Andrew, 2018). All wars
have an effect on the demography due to the loss of lives on both sides of the conflict, as is
evident from the 1st and 2nd world wars as well as the Yemeni War (Aaron, 2019). However,
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Z = xbar−μ 0
σ
√ n
Z = 30.74−18.9
8.889
√ 230
=¿
20.20

STT100 Statistics
unlike these other wars, the protracted nature of the War in Afghanistan has had an extended
effect in the country’s demography.
Mortality rate refers to the number of deaths recorded in a population per 1000 people in the
same population (Uhlenberg, 2009). Wars, in general, have two impacts related to mortality:
direct loss of life in the fighting and, indirect loss of life through casualties and lack of access to
health services and infrastructure (Rahma, et al., 2018). In the fighting, the category of
individuals recruited into the army considered as “able bodied” are mostly between the ages of
23 and 40 (Rahma, et al., 2018). This brings into focus the issue of high mortality rate (adult
mortality rate) in this age group. The number of individuals in this age group is therefore likely
to reduce as the conflict continues, moving the median age of the population from this age group.
Beyond the army fighting directly in a conflict, civilians are often targeted and this may result in
casualties during the conflict as can be seen in Figure 1: Jan-Jun War in Afghanistan Civilian
Casualties Data 2009-2016 below. The most vulnerable groups constitute the civilian population
likely to be targeted and killed (John, 2014). Old aged individuals in any population form a
vulnerable group together with mothers having young children and infants as well as the young
children and infants themselves (Aaron, 2019). This is because these groups of individuals may
not be able to easily move from a location that is exposed to intense fighting to more safe and
secure locations. This similarly brings into focus the issue of high mortality rate (high adult
mortality) rate in the age group of individuals older than 50 and adult women. In addition, it also
brings into focus child and infant mortality rates. Therefore, there is a likelihood of reduction in
the number of individuals in these groups of people as the conflict continues. This results in the
median age moving from these age groups in the population and towards the teenage age groups.
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Figure 1: Jan-Jun War in Afghanistan Civilian Casualties Data 2009-2016 (Source: (Al Jazeera, 2016))
In recent times, warfare has been highly associated with destruction of infrastructure. This is
evident from more wars taking place in towns and cities as opposed to past wars that mainly took
place in less urban settings. A case in point is the Syrian War where war has been fought in the
cities such as the city of Aleppo (Rahma, et al., 2018). This is in contrast, for instance with the
Egypt-Israel war in the Suez, where limited damage was experienced in the urban center of both
countries (Rahma, et al., 2018). Urban centers have always been the locations for important
infrastructures such as medical facilities. The destruction of these facilities means that the access
to medical services especially for children and infants is not available (Daniel, 2017). The result
is high infant and children mortality rates, two groups are particularly most affected with the lack
of access to medical facilities during conflicts. Consequently, the median age of the population
moves away from these age groups and towards the teenage age groups.
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These are the results that the effects of the War in Afghanistan has had on the country’s
demography in terms of the distribution of its population. The net result is the country having a
median age of 18.9 years old that falls in the teenage age groups.
Consequences
Having a large part of the population being around a young age, as is the case of Afghanistan
having a median age of 18.9 years old, has both costs and benefits for the country. Although the
large part of the population can be said to be young, 18.9 years old is too young, speaking from
an economics point of view. Generally, a young population is representative of country’s labor
force and in turn its ability to be productive (Besanko, Dranoue & Shanley, 2012). A young
population is able to participate in employment and other economic activities. Among the most
critical factors of production is the workforce (Petrakis & Kostis, 2013). This availability of a
workforce means that a country is able to develop its economy. However, for the case of
Afghanistan, the young population may be too young to be considered as a key factor for
economic growth in the country.
On the other end, this large population can be viewed from a future economy point of view. If a
10-year period from now is considered, this young population will be old enough to be
considered as a viable key factor for the country’s economic growth. This will not only be in
terms of age, but also in terms of skills. This population will have acquired skills that will enable
the country’s economy to grow from a diverse set of sectors.
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Government and Social Policies
Despite the potential provided by Afghanistan’s young population, there is still the ongoing
conflict between the Afghanistan government and the Taliban. In order for Afghanistan to
benefit from its young population there is need for an end in this conflict that is part of the War
in Afghanistan. Economic growth relies a lot on peace and stability (Petrakis & Kostis, 2013). A
country may have resources, but the absence of stability will prevent it from carrying out
activities to enable its economic growth and development (Justtin, 2019). Hence, the government
will need to find a way of ending the war in the country. Although there have been previous
agreements and treaties signed by the Afghanistan government and the Taliban with mediators
such as the United States of America, these gains have often been lost with renewed violence
between the army and Taliban (Vincenzo & Evelina, 2014). Hence, more effort has to be put by
parties in the conflict into bringing peace in the country.
With stability secured, the country will then need to effectively equip its young population with
the necessary skills for facilitating its economic growth. Economic growth is reliant on both
skilled and unskilled labor to ensure a cross sector simultaneous growth (Petrakis & Kostis,
2013). The government therefore needs to develop and implement policies relating to education,
especially in higher institution. Sufficient funding has to be made available for the construction
of institutions of higher learning in the country.
Barriers
The main barrier to Afghanistan being able to capitalize on having a young population is the
ongoing conflict. As can be seen in Error: Reference source not found where there is a relatively
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consistent number of deaths occurring over the period, indicating that the country in consistently
in a state of war. The continuous war hence serves as a barrier to the country not benefitting from
the economic potential of its young population.
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References
Aaron, E 2019, 'Yemen: Civil War and Humanitarian Catastrophe', Political Insight, vol.10,
no.2, pp. 14-16.
Al Jazeera, 2016. UN , viewed 13 November 2019,
<https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/07/afghanistan-surge-civilian-children-death-tolls-
160725063051899.html>.
Andrew, BD 2018, 'Making sense of the war in Afghanistan', Critical Perspectives on
Accounting, vol.53, no.2018, pp. 43-56.
Barbara, I & Susan, D 2014, Introductory Statistics, 1st edn, OpenStax CNX, New York.
Besanko, D, Dranove, D & Shanley, M 2012, Economics of Strategy, 1st edn, John Wiley &
Sons, New York.
Daniel, K 2017, 'Local peace and contemporary conflict: Constructing commonality and
exclusion during war in Afghanistan', Social Science Research, vol.61, no.2017, pp. 75-97.
John, SF 2014, 20: Pessimistic Scenarios: Incessant War in Afghanistan. In: Natural Resources
in Afghanistan. New York: Elsevier, pp. 526-546.
Justtin, M 2019, RAWA News, viewed 13 November 2019,
<http://www.rawa.org/temp/runews/2019/08/26/inside-afghanistan-record-numbers-struggle-to-
afford-basics.html>.
Petrakis, P & Kostis, P 2013, 'Economic Growth and Cultural Change', The Journal of Social
Economics, vol.47, no.3, pp. 147-157.
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Rahma, A, Amina, N, Laila, B & Tim, KM 2018, 'The Syrian Conflict: A Case Study of the
Challenges and Acute Need for Medical Humanitarian Operations for Women and Children
Internally Displaced', BMC Med, vol.16, no.65, pp. 6-17.
Uhlenberg, P 2009, International Handbook of the Demography of Aging, 1st edn, Springer-
Verlag, New York.
Vincenzo, B. & Evelina, G., 2014. Income and Livelihoods in the War in Afghanistan. World
Development, 60(2014), pp. 113-131.
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Appendix
Figure 2: Analysis Output
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