Analyzing Supply Chain Models: Demand, Supply, and Surplus

This project undertakes a comprehensive analysis of a supply chain model, focusing on key aspects such as demand shortages, supply shortages, demand pull-in and push-out scenarios, and the identification of product surpluses. The analysis utilizes provided shipment and forecast data to construct a robust supply chain model, enabling the simulation and evaluation of various scenarios, including increased demand, supply disruptions, and product end-of-life situations. The project's objective is to create a clear and concise presentation of these scenarios, enabling effective communication to management teams and facilitating informed decision-making. Charts are developed based on weekly data to visually represent these scenarios. The project also includes calculations for demand and supply values to illustrate the interplay between supply and demand. The project concludes with a discussion of the model's ability to reflect changes in the supply chain and its potential to provide actionable insights for business development and operational improvements. This project provides a practical application of supply chain management principles and the use of data analysis to improve decision making.

Supply Chain Management

Contents
Introduction...........................................................................................................................................3
Supply chain model...............................................................................................................................3
Demand Shortage..................................................................................................................................4
Demand pull in and push out.................................................................................................................5
Supply Shortage or disaster struck.........................................................................................................6
Product suddenly goes to end of life which are in surplus.....................................................................7
Conclusion.............................................................................................................................................7
References.............................................................................................................................................7

Introduction
This project is to analyse and to draw the chart for demand shortage, supply shortage,
demand pull in/push out and surplus. It is the Supply Chain model and the data is based on
previous shipment and forecast data. In this task, calculate the demand shortage and supply
shortage using supply chain data.
Supply chain model
The forecast and shipment data are using to build the supply chain model. In this
model based on supply and demand increase and decrease value. In this model based on the
product value increase and decrease value. Calculate the supply value for increase 10% and
plot the chart in supply chain model.

Dec/99
Jul/47
Feb/95
Sep/42
Apr/90
Nov/37
Jun/85
Jan/33
Aug/80
Mar/28
Oct/75
-
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
Product Part Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-
18 Jan-19
Hercules B2P SHIP vs FCST
1,26,000 1,71,000 75,000
1,03,500
Hercules B2D SHIP vs FCST
36,000 31,500 2,500 9,000
Hercules B2G SHIP vs FCST
1,45,680 31,500 2,500 9,000
Hercules B2C SHIP vs FCST
6,89,500 8,53,300 4,50,000
8,50,500
Hercules Total SHIP vs FCST
9,97,180 10,55,800 5,27,500
9,63,000
Hercules Increase 10% supply
99718 105580 52750 96300
Hercules Total SHIP vs FCST
9,97,180 10,55,800 5,27,500
9,63,000
Demand Shortage
“Demand Shortage” means product or service has exceeded its supply as based on
demand. The market or industry calculates the demand value .The demand shortage
calculation is based on total supply data. The x-axis denotes the supply data and the y-axis
represents the week. It displays the total supply value chart1.The demand shortage chart
represent the forecast vale in excel sheet and it plot by using week and total forecast value.
The demand chart represents the increase and decrease the value in weekly wise.
Demand shortage output is shown as bellow.
1 "Special Topic Forum On resources And Supply Chain Management" (2013) 49(2).

200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Demand
Total Forecast (Ku)
In demand value increase the 30 % compare to supply. So the demand value is higher than
the supply value. If the customer cancels the demand then the market value will be decrease.
Because the demand value is higher value.
60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Increase 30%
demand x 0.30
Demand pull in and push out
The supply chain contains the demand pull in and demand push out process. Both
these categories respond to the customer. It is a separate process and executes the response
for the customer. In this task, calculate the pull in and push out for shipment and forecast the
data. The chart displays “the pull in and push out” value. This value calculate by using total

shipment value and forecast value. This chart represents the shipment and forecast value
increase and decrease.
Pull-in push-out output shown bellow.
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Pull-in/Push-out
Pull-in/Push-out
Supply Shortage or disaster struck
The supply shortage value is based on demand value; the supply shortage value is
higher than the demand shortage value. In this task the value is based on total supply value
and week. The x-axis is total supply value and y-axis is the week. It displays the supply value
for week based. The chart represent the supply value is decrease in weekly wise. Every week
supply shortage value is decreased.
Supply shortage output shown below.
0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40 Supply
Total Supply (Ku)

Product suddenly goes to end of life which are in surplus
The surplus is based on demand and supply value and equals to the supply value subtract
from demand value. The chart is plotted by using the surplus value. The x-axis is surplus
value and the y- axis is week2.Surplus means combination of demand and supply value. The
chart represents the decrease and increases the value of demand and supply value.
Surplus output shown bellow.
-600 -400 -200 0 200 400 600 800 1,000
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Surplus
Surplus
Conclusion
In this project, successfully analysis of the demand shortage, supply shortage, pull in/push out
and surplus value. The chart is based on the shipment and forecast value and the supply-
demand chain value. Finally, the chart will be created by the Supply Chain model.
References
"Special Topic Forum On resources And Supply Chain Management" (2013) 49(2)
"Special Topic Forum on Power In Supply Chain Management" (2015) 51(2)
2 "Special Topic Forum on Power In Supply Chain Management" (2015) 51(2).