In-Depth Threat Analysis: Assessing Vulnerabilities and Mitigation

This report provides a comprehensive threat analysis, detailing the process of identifying, assessing, and mitigating potential risks to a system or facility. It explores the use of both open and closed sources for gathering intelligence, outlining passive, semi-passive, and active strategies for data collection. The report emphasizes a five-stage process: identifying threats, determining the size and magnitude of exposure, obtaining relevant data, analyzing and grading threats, and implementing mitigation strategies. It also discusses the use of color codes (red, amber, green) to categorize the severity of threats and suggests appropriate measures for each level. The analysis includes examples of international threats, such as political unrest in Venezuela and tensions between the US and Iran, illustrating the practical application of threat assessment principles. This document is available on Desklib, a platform offering a range of study tools for students.

Running head: THREAT ANALYSIS 1
The process of threat analysis
Student’s name
Name of the university
Authors note

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1. Meaning of threat analysis
Under simple terms, threat analysis can be referred to as a process of detecting,
identifying and carefully evaluating the vulnerable areas of weakness within a system, place or
facility at any given point of time (Siemons,2018). It is further notable that threat analysis is
carried out continuously. This is due to the fact different potential risks present unique threats
and may, therefore, call for adequate control measures. Some of the different types of threats
may include direct, indirect, veiled and conditional threats.
How to conduct a threat analysis using open and closed sources
The process of conducting a threat analysis mainly involves the use of intelligence and
data or information that is publicly available to society or the general public. Open sources,
therefore, include areas such as the world wide web, public libraries, groups of people in a
community and so on. Besides providing easy access to information, open sources are highly
subjective (Virginia department of criminal justice services, 2016). The information by an
individual can as well be accessed by the enemy or potential threat. Therefore, having a well
constructed and well laid out strategy for conducting threat analysis is paramount.
To begin with, open sources of threat analysis are conducted based on roughly three
approaches. These include methods such as the passive, semi-passive and the active strategies of
obtaining data (Scott,2019). The preference of one method over another entirely depends on the
interest and in sometimes the kind of information required. For instance, where threat analysis is
aimed at safeguarding against the threat by the use of publicly available sources, then it is ideal
to use the passive approach of threat analysis Virginia department of criminal justice services,
2016). Closed sources of threat are analysis is used under situations where the enemy or potential

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threat is highly aware of a possible trap. One uses closed sources through an active information
collection procedure. Closed sources of threat analysis mainly build upon the approaches of the
open sources of threat analysis Virginia department of criminal justice services, 2016). While the
open sources look at a vast category of information, the closed sources concentrate on a few
specific points of interest. The closed sources of threat analysis go explore further into the dark
sources of information. The major purpose of this is to discover and unveil information that
would rather remain secret. Therefore in conducting a threat analysis, the open sources of
information are always used as the starting points. The closed sources of threat analysis are then
used as the secondary alternatives especially where more attention is required.
The process of threat analysis
By definition threat analysis process refers to the act of assessing and analyzing the
degree and level of a negative outcome that can arise out of a potential threat or risk. The process
of threat analysis further takes into consideration the possible chances or probability of the threat
occurring. The possible threats that are available to an individual, facility, or system among
others may arise out of different types. These may include international threats, internal, natural
and so many others (Stronski and Sokolsky, 2017). On the other hand, however, the process of
conducting a threat analysis can be carried out basically under five possible stage or steps. These
steps are further elaborated as follows:
1. Identifying the possible available threats: in this particular stage, an individual pays
attention to the surrounding environment in which the facility or system is established. The
environment assessment, however, includes both the internal and external. Here a person needs
to assess the potential threats and risk elements available. Additionally, at this same stage, it is

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also possible that the team can identify the potential areas of weakness. They can as well be in
the system, or facility depending on the nature of the activity that is under consideration. Where
necessary, a planned attempt to breach the system or activity can be undertaken. This major
objective of such an activity is to identify the areas of vulnerability Virginia department of
criminal justice services, 2016).
2. Determining the size, magnitude and areas that are exposed. This is the second step of
carrying out threat analysis and it involves attaching the level of impact. Every individual
potential threat that is identified is assessed based on possibility and level of impact. Certain
threats have high possibilities of occurrence yet they have very low magnitudes. On the other
hand, however, there are those threats with high impact levels and yet they have low possibilities
of happening. Therefore, by carrying out an effective analysis to classify all the identified
threats, the threat manager can ably attach value on these threats different threats available.
Threats can also be categorized in the following ways such as minimal impact with minimal
exposure, average impacts with average exposure. Then there those threats with high levels of
exposure and with highly impacting outcomes. Below is an example of a threat template that can
be used to categorize possible threats in any project or security system.
image by: David. J. Bianco.

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3. Obtaining the required data and information concerning the different threats: at such a
stage, the threat assessment team and management need to find out information regarding the
available threats. Such information may include facts such as ways of guarding against these
threats, internal control procedures of protection. This, however, is mostly applicable in areas
where the threats are arising from the internal environment. A review of past information
concerning the threats can as well be checked. This is helpful especially in cases where an
identified threat has a reoccurrence tendency.
4. Analyze the threats and grade the threats: this is the systematic grouping and
evaluating the identified threats that are potentially harmful (Jones, 2019). Alternatively, this is
the stage at which the individual classifies the high impact threats from the moderate and least
harmful ones. The high impact threats ideally are those that will cause great damage to the
subject matter of interest. The moderate are those that bring about average damage and those in
the least category will result in low negligible impact.

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5. Carry out a threat mitigation strategy: after identifying and categorizing all the
potential threats, then one can devise the relevant control and preventive measures to put in
place. These may be aimed at eliminating the threat or reducing the impact and probability of
happening. On the other hand, it equally important to draft contingency plans at this stage. These
plans are simply the alternative options that one can use in case the main plan of action fails to
control the threat from occurring. Some of the possible control measures can include upgrading
and installing security systems, enhancing personnel training and many others. Because threat
analysis is a continuous process, there is also a need to continuously evaluate and monitor the
strategies in place overtime. Changes can be made to areas that require improvement for better
performance of the strategies applied (Chan, 2017).
Threat after analysis and how it can escalate
Conducting a threat after analysis while using colour codes such as red, green and amber
requires one to attach a meaning to each of the colours reflected. The meaning and implication
should, however, be uniform to all responsible individuals. For this particular paper, therefore,
the green colour code will represent a trivial level of threat occurrence and impact (Staff, 2019).
This also means that the threats attached to the green colour have little or no impact at all.
Amber, on the other hand, will represent those threats have an average impact on the project.
Therefore, the threats highlighted with amber are more pressing than those attached to the green
colour. For the red colour, the threat after analysis should be acted upon with great caution
because such threats are highly significant. This simply means that they pose a great level of
damage to the project or society for that matter.

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The green colour icon above represents trivial or perhaps no potential threat present. The
person is required to act accordingly. For instance, if the icon representing a traffic light, then a
person is certain that it is alright to proceed with moving ahead.
The above colour icon represents amber. This particular colour shows that there is a
possibility of counteracting threats. However such threats pose a low impact on the system of the
project. Therefore, relevant action is required to address the possibility of a threat occurring. For
instance, if the situation calls for installing security systems, then it should be acted upon
adequately.
The red colour icon, therefore, represents that the level of threats present is very high. It
further shows that one stands a great risk of being exposed to danger or damage at any point in
time (Brenner, 2018).

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Measures to be taken or put in place for each colour icon
The green colour icon: because there is no presence of an available threat to the project or
system, an individual should proceed with the activity. The green colour s simply asking the
person to go ahead with the process and the level of safety is high. The other possible measures
one can do at such a level are maintaining the already existing systems and perhaps make
additional improvements. The improvements are undertaken as a mode of safeguarding against
the future possible likely threats that could occur.
Amber: this particular level of colour is an indication that a potential risk exists. The
threats at this level are known to b challenging. This is because they act as an indication that the
currents preventive measures have a weak point. The implication is that such weak points need to
be strengthened if safety is to be maintained. The threats could be at their early stages and hence
the impacts that may result are very minimal. The measures that can be undertaken here include
identifying the causes, areas of vulnerability (Refroe and smith, 2016). Possible solutions to
solve or address the issues arising may be very necessary when such a colour is evident.
Therefore the threat analysis team should come with control measures to such threats.

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The red colour is a reflection of extreme danger. Therefore, the concerned personnel
should undertake immediate actions to reverse the problem. If the threat is security-related, then
measures such as total replacement of the system can be undertaken. This would involve
obtaining and new types of software to eliminate the old systems. It is at such a level that the
contingency plans can be utilized to the maximum. Below is a pyramid is showing how threats
can be characterized.
Image by David. J. Bianco.

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country description by analysis nature of the treat
measures are
taken
colour
code
Venezuel
a
The South American country is
highly under political unrest.
The existing political tension
between the government and
the opposition poses a huge
threat to the international
environment. By analysis, this
political tension still stands to
be at an amber level. Because
the tension is still a national
level, the threat to global
peace has an average adverse
impact (BBC News,2019).
Therefore, the situation is still
under control as the national
political forces can devise
solutions to settle their
political differences.
The threat that
Venezuela poses is
mainly a political
threat. On the global
scene, Venezuela
stands a moderate
threat to humanity
especially the
neighbouring states
and countries.
Between the
two
adversaries,
political
negotiations,
and dialogues
should be
considered. A
democratic
and peaceful
transfer of
power based
on term limits
would as well
be an
important
decision to
undertake.
Submission
especially to
the rule of
law. This calls
for obeying
the
constitutional
requirements
of Venezuela
( Stinnett,2011
).
Iran The US- Iran tension is a huge
threat globally. Without a
doubt, the continued sanction,
the 4-year war between the
two countries is a serious
threat to both the national and
global economy. This is unrest
that involves two major
participants in international
trade (Chulov,2019). With Iran
being one of the top oil
exporters and the US as the
world's largest economy, such
tensions are not in any way
negligible ( Taha, 2019).
Therefore, the
conflict stands to be
both a political and
economic threat to
the global scene. This
type of threat can,
however, be
categorized as
Well guided
negotiations
need to be as
well
undertaken
for this
particular
threat to be
addressed.
However,
these
negations
require a
mediator such
as an
international

THREAT ANALYSIS 11
body or
organization
to settle the
issue.
North
Korea
North Korea covers about 2%
of the global economy. It is
also very unlikely that the
peninsula tensions between
the US and North Korea can
escalate any further
(Specia,2019). Such factors,
therefore, could have very
minimal impacts on global
peace and the entire global
economy (Martin, 2017).
The threat that is
brought about by
North Korea is rather
at low levels. And the
political or economic
effects are not so
very significant.
The two
nations that
are the US and
North Korea
should
negotiate and
conclude.
Agreements
can also be
signed
between the
two nations to
agree.
Russia
For the EU countries, Russia is
majorly there a supplier of gas
and energy (Aljazeera,2019).
Therefore there is a need to
maintain good relations with
the country. The possibly on-
going cold war between the US
and Russia Is moderate a
threat. Two global powers are
increasingly fighting a cold war
that is not likely to result in
high pressing impacts (akyildiz,
2018).
There is a likelihood
of a cold war threat
and on the other
hand an economic
threat on the global
scale especially to
the EU states.
Agreements
between
communist
Russia and the
capitalist US
need to be
signed.

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Neutralizing the threats while using negotiations and mediations
Each of the above threats poses a danger to global peace. However such threats can be
brought into control through negotiations and agreements. For instance, the Venezuelan
president and the members of the opposition can choose to settle on a common point. The
negotiations can be mostly collaborative (Shonk, 2019). These collaborative negotiations look
further ahead of personal desires and focus on the benefit of the entire nation.

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Mediations, on the other hand, can be undertaken especially between the US and Iran.
Mediation is a situation in which two conflicting parties are brought to a mutual understanding. It
is majorly conducted an individual known as a mediator between the two parties conflicting.
The two countries should opt for the facilitative form of mediation to settle disputes (Elwell,
2015). For instance, the UN and other international peace bodies can act as mediators. They can
listen to both nations and create a mutual agreement for the two countries (Shonk, 2019). This
would be an important strategy in ensuring global peace as well as facilitating international trade.
Conclusion
Many times global peace is highly comprised. The increasingly overwhelming desire of
nationalism and other protectionist policies have been significant catalysts of global threats.
However, it is most imperative to note that an assessment of negative possibilities is conducted
before any step is taken. To preserve and maintain global harmony, threat analysis should be a
critical option.
References
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