Impact of Change: Evaluating Trends in the Dynamic Tourism Environment

This report delves into the dynamic tourism environment, highlighting the significant growth experienced until the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic, which triggered an unprecedented crisis in the tourism economy. Beyond the pandemic, the report examines other influential forces of change, including geopolitical instability and climate change, referencing the World Economic Forum's Global Risk Report. It uses definition triangulation to define tourism and explores the historical development of the tourism industry, citing examples like the impact of the global recession and the FIFA World Cup. Furthermore, the report analyzes current risks affecting tourism, drawing from the WEF Global Risk Report 2021, focusing on unemployment and natural disasters, and discussing their potential impacts on tourism destinations locally, nationally, and globally. The report provides a comprehensive overview of the factors shaping the tourism industry and the challenges it faces.

The Dynamic Tourism Environment.
Driven by a relatively strong global economy, a growing middle class in
emerging economies, technological advances, new business models, affordable
travel costs and visa facilitation, international tourist arrivals grew 5% in 2018 to
reach the 1.4 billion mark, UNWTO (2019).
Furthermore, export earnings generated by tourism grew to USD 1.7 trillion in
2018, making the tourism sector a true global force for economic growth and
development, driving the creation of more and better jobs and serving as
catalyst for innovation and entrepreneurship.
In short, tourism is building better lives for millions of individuals and
transforming communities.
Then, Covid-19 happened.
The coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has triggered an unprecedented crisis in
the tourism economy, given the immediate and immense shock to the sector.
Revised Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (2020)
statistics estimates on the COVID-19 impact point to 60% decline in international
tourism in 2020. This could rise to 80% if recovery is delayed until December,
with unparalleled economic and societal impacts.
However, although Covid-19 is the primary talking point in Tourism currently, it is
not the only force of change within an industry that is susceptible to shocks and
crises.
The World Economic Forum (2020) writes “today’s risk landscape is shaped by an
unsettled geopolitical environment in which new centres of power are forming—
as old alliances and global institutions are being tested”. For the economy,
“ammunition to fight a potential recession is lacking, and there is a possibility of
an extended low-growth period. Climate change and related environmental
issues are ranked highest in terms of likelihood”.
ABTA (2020) predicted that 2019 would be the year that sustainability issues
would go mainstream and that has proved to be the case, with a spotlight thrown
on climate change in particular. Greta Thunberg and Extinction Rebellion have
become household names and there is an increasing appetite to understand the
environmental impacts of travel and tourism. Tourism can be a tremendous force
for good, although impacts on destinations, their natural environment,
economies and communities need to be managed.
This module, and the assessment you are undertaking, will evaluate current
trends within tourism. You will identify key forces of change in the industry and
the impacts these changes have. A discussion on how a tourism
stakeholder responds to changes or events that impact upon the tourism
industry will also take place.
Key Reading:

ABTA Travel Trends Report / CAPA / WTTC Publications / Skift / UNWTO Library /
UNWTO Tourism Highlights / Stakeholder Response Strategies / WEF Global Risk
Report / Dynamic Tourism Environment “Book Club”
1: Definition Triangulation. Triangulation is the use of more than one method of
research to add depth to data and analysis, contributing to greater confidence in
findings (Bryman, Bell, & Teevan, 2009). Using the triangle below, source three
definitions of “Tourism”. When this has been completed, create your own
working definition of this term. (50 words).
Textbook : Tourism
Year : 1979
Author : Leiper
Definition : Tourism refers
to the system consisting of
discretionary travel and
short time stay of
individuals to stay away
from the usual place of
residence for one or more
nights excepting the tour
made for t purpose of
earing remuneration by
Journal : EPRA Journals
Year : 1905
Author : Guyer Feuler
Definition : Tourism consists of all
the activities of individuals travelling
and accommodating n the locations
away from their usual environment
for upto one consecutive year to
spend time on leisure, business and
other purposes.
Other source : Online
Source
Year : 1941
Author : Professor
Hunziker and Kraft
Definition : Tourism is
the sum total of
phenomena and
relationship rising by
the travel and stay of
non residents, as they
do not lead to
permanent residence
Working Definition:
Tourism refers to the movement of people from
one location to another and spending the
leisure time away from home to have some
entertainment and relief to enjoy the new
experiences in life. Hospitality industry is the
fastest growing and most contributing industry
to the economy and also creates employment
opportunities in the economy (Gupta, Shukla,
and Pandiya, 2022).

2: Historical development of Tourism. As a constantly evolving industry, Tourism is in its current position due to a series of
major, and minor, global events. Choose two of these events and discuss the impact they have had on the tourism industry.
(450 words).
Event one:
The Tourism industry was evolved by the 17th century at the era of young people from Western and Northern European
countries that started the grand tour in which they made trips across multiple areas of Europe like Italy, France and
Greece. By observing these practices, many people also got impacted to organise these trips. Later , in the 18the century,
the trends of Tourism were spread across many parts of the world particularly in the wealthy nations like US and UK. By
the industrialization development that contributed to technology and also improved the flight and passenger transport,
tourism has also achieved a rapid growth. These practices in the history of Tourism have given emergence to the leisure
and entertainment in the travel industry. Some of the global events that have impact on the Tourism industry are
mentioned below :
 Global recession : The global economy had to face the economic crisis in the year 2008. Many organizations and
individuals had to face the financial issues in their functioning. Due to this, they spent less on the leisure and travel
that led to the major down turn in the Tourism industry as well. And the tourist destinations also experienced
reduced number of visitors at the destination sites. The travel agencies also had to face the complex budget. This
crises continued till several years. As of UK, it took the country 6 years to overcome the impact of global recession.
As ion this period, many people had cancelled their international travels that impacted many sectors in the
hospitality industry such as hotel businesses, aviation industry, accommodation and hostels, and other travel
destinations as well.

Event Two:
 FIFTA World Cup : It is the most famous global sports event worldwide. Individuals and groups from various
countries came to the host country to watch the world cup match. In the year 2018, the FIFTA world cup in Russia
had experienced the growth of travellers in the country who had visited to watch the world cup matches. The
percentage of travellers in Russia was mostly contributed by the American nationals i.e. approx 12.4 %. Apart from
this, around 6.6 % nationals from Brazil also came to watch the FIFTA matches in Russia. It led to the rise in Tourism
activities in Russia. During this period, many hotels and travel agencies experienced increased number of bookings
for travel. These activities contributed to increase in the business in Tourism activities. In this period, the businesses
in the hospitality industry recorded rapid growth in the sales revenues such as hotels were entirely booked due to
the more number of visitors to watch the global event (FIFA World Cup, 2022).

3: In addition to events changing Tourism in the past, events are influencing the Tourism industry now. Using the WEF Global
Risk Report (2021) below as your guide, choose two risks from different categories and complete the following questions
(1,000 words):
A) Provide a description of the risk; B) Identify potential tourism destinations where the risk could impact upon;
C) Discuss the impact this risk may have on the tourism industry either locally, nationally or globally.
Risk One: Unemployment
A) Description of the Risk
This risk refers to the situation due to which the individuals are not able to get
the jobs that leads to financial distress and creates issues in economic growth.
It leads to increase in the crime and divorce rates and also cause poor impact
on the relationships. It is a reason behind the level of inequality among the rich
and poor. Unemployment creates the social issues like such as suicide, mental
health issues, poor relationships etc. And due to the covid19 pandemic, it has
been estimated that the international Travel and tourism market has lost
almost 62 million jobs in 2020. In UK, the tourists destinations have been hit
hardly by the covid19 in terms of loss of employment. Although the Tourism
industry is considered to be providing employment opportunities in many
sectors like hotel, restaurants, at accommodations , in the flights and at the
travel and tourist destinations, but due to the lockdown restrictions and
covid19 pandemic, many people lost their jobs that has created the risks of
unemployment in the economy (Setiyorini, Chen and Pryce, 2022).
B) The Tourism destinations where the risk could have an impact
The Tourism industry in UK creates employment opportunities and contributes
more than 1.3 billion Euro to the local economy . But the covid19 pandemic
has created the risks upon the industry of creating unemployment in the
country. Due to the social distancing norms and national lockdown, many
people lost their jobs from the destination sites like tourist attendants etc. As

the main economic impact of tourism includes increased standards of living
and increment in employment opportunities , people tend to find jobs in this
sector due to the availability of more opportunities. But due to covid19 as well
as war between Russia and Ukraine, Tourist destinations got hit by losing many
employees that led to economic disruptions in UK.
C) Impact of Unemployment on the Tourism industry
 Locally – Unemployment in the economy impacts the living standards of
people due to which they spend less on the leisure activities creating
the risk for tourism industry to lose the customers due to unemployment
issue. It also leads to the wastage of useful resources by creating a
sense of hopelessness in the Tourism industry. As unemployment
increases the probability of not going on holidays, it leads to a reduction
in the number of tourists arrivals and eventually in the number of
products and services designed for the tourists.
 Nationally – Tourism is considered as the fastest growing and the most
contributing sector to the UK economy on a national basis, it also
creates employment opportunities for the people. But due to the
covid19 issue, it has created unemployment in the country nationally
that is leading to low growth of economy due to decreasing standards of
people (Butler, 2022).
 Globally – The global Tourism industry has experienced loss of more
than 62 million jobs in 2020 due to covid19. The impact of
unemployment globally is that it leads to the low growth of Global GDP
due to which tourism sector contributes less to the global economy.

Risk 2: Natural Disasters
A) Description of the Risk
Natural Disasters refer to the natural calamities and risks that happen on earth
such as floods, firestorms, hurricanes, pandemic, tsunami, landslides, cyclones
and storms etc. that create adverse impact on the regions and nations as well
due to which Tourism industry also gets affected. It causes loss to
organizations in terms of losing of business property , displacement of
individuals due to physical injury or death etc. These natural disasters also
affect the ecosystem structure, loss of financial resources and loss of
infrastructure as well. Earthquakes cause damage to the Power sources that
leads to waste related problems that is also faced by hotel businesses for their
waste management of restaurants. This also leads to unemployment as the
individuals do not get proper workplace due to loss of infrastructure and
physical properties of organizations such as hotels, accommodations, travel
agencies etc. (Lee and et. al.,2022).
B) Potential Tourism destinations where the risk could impact upon
The Tourism destinations get affected by the natural disasters in a way that
they cause damage to the visiting destinations, and the historical monuments
at the museum or and other historical places etc. It also leads to
unemployment at these destinations due to the loss of infrastructure and
workplace there. The tourism destinations' most admiring quality is their site
image that gets ruined by the natural disasters causing the reduction in
number of visitors and leading to generation of less sales revenues for the
organization. The main natural disasters that affect the Tourism industry are
floods, rains, earthquakes, volcano eruptions at several areas. These
calamities affect the Travel destinations and the local people living around

there in an immensive way that majorly affect their living standards and slows
down the growth of economy as well.
C) Impact of the Natural Disasters on Tourism industry
 Locally - Natural disasters create a long-lasting impact on the lives of
the people living in the locality of the tourist destinations due to which
the tourism sector gets affected negatively because of the decrease in
labour power, damage of the tourism facilities and the ruining image of
destination due to the bad management of the crisis or natural
disasters. The people living in the locality of tourist destinations also get
affected by facing physical injuries and some even face death. It leads to
the hindered growth of the living standards of people living in the
locality and also leads to less promotion of the cultural heritage to be
demonstrated to the tourists.
 Nationally – The nations have to face the issues like economic damage
due to natural disasters. It leads to the loss of capital assets and
infrastructure and human capital as well due to the loss of life, loss of
skilled workers at the business sectors in hospitality industry such as
hotel staff, accommodation staff flights staff etc. It leads to the less
contribution to the national economy by this sector.
 Globally – These disasters cause damage to the infrastructure, roads,
dams, bridges and even loss of life i.e. human capital due to which
people do not prefer to travel on those sites that have experienced any
disaster. It restricts the exchange of foreign currency between the
nations that affect the contributions to the global GDP and global
economy as well (Gao and et. al.,2022).
4: A dictionary definition of “trend” is “a general direction in which something is developing or changing”. The ABTA Travel
Trend Report (2022) identifies trends currently taking place in the tourism industry. These can be seen here and found
following the link: https://tinyurl.com/48689pyy