TUI Travel Group: Forecasting and Business Decision Analysis

This report analyzes the business decision-making process of TUI Travel Group, a leading British tour operator. It outlines the data collection plan, differentiating between primary and secondary sources, and details the tools used, including surveys, questionnaires, interviews, and various d...Read More

Business decision-making

TUI Travel Group
 TUI Travel & Group is a leading
British tour operator who renders
best quality travelling services to
provide excellent travelling
experiences to the people.

Data collection plan
 Primary sources: This sources are new in origin and investigator need to carry
out a new research for the same. It provides firsthand information which helps to
resolve researcher’s specific issue and problem.
 Secondary sources: This sources are not new in nature because such information
already has been gathered earlier by someone else for different objective.

Data collection tools
Tools for primary data collection
Survey (field, telephonic or web)
Questionnaire
Structured and unstructured
interviews
Experiments
Observation
Tools for secondary data
collection
Journal articles
Case studies
Newspaper
Books
Internet
TUI’s annual financial reports

Survey methodology
 It is a technique of primary data collection that gather data from the sample units
by using different instruments like questionnaire and evaluate the same for the
purpose of concluding the entire population.
 In the current plan, it has been decided to conduct an online survey by creating e-
questionnaire which will design a set of questions keeping into account TUI’s
information need to introduce a new tour product in the market.

Sampling frame
 Simple random selection is considered unbiased and appropriate, in which,
randomly a number of audience and enable TUI to successfully90 customers will be
selected from whom questions will asked as per their voluntary consent.
 Biasfree selection helps to find out the right information about target introduce the
new goods.

Histogram for the price in Morocco
 As per the results founded that
majority of the visitors are likely to
pay reasonable or average prices of
650-675 at a frequency of 31
(34.44%).

Line graph
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
105
120
130
75
108
122
131
76
108
123
132
80

Column graph
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
105
120
130
75
108
122
131
76
108
123
132
80

Pie graph
105
120
130
75
108
122 131
76
108
123
132
80
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4

Interpretation
 The current presented graphs shows and describes about the level of revenue and sales
generated by the tour firm from the destination like as Africa and middle east from the
financial year 2014 to 2016.
 It can be visualized from the above presented graphs and charts that in each and every
quarter the revenue of the Africa and middle east destination is increases but in the last
like as fourth quarter it reduces.
 There same kind of trend in every year which is from the FY 2014 to 2016. Here at the
end of first quarter amount generated by Africa and middle east is 105 GBP which
reduces at the end of fourth quarter and reaches up to 75 GBP in the FY 2014.
 The same kind of condition is there in both the fiscal years such as 2015 and 2016 where
amount is worth of 108 and 108 for first quarter as well as 76 and 80 GBP for fourth
quarter respectively.

Scatter Graph
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
105
120
130
75
108
122
131
76
108
123
132
80

Trend line
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
105
120
130
75
108
122
131
76
108
123
132
80
f(x) = -0.4825174825x + 112.303030303

Interpretation
The trend line is the chart which is used by the most of the businesses in
order to determine and forecast data for the future years.
At the current case with the help of trend line management of the tour
company able to know that in the future financial years the company will
generate higher or lower sales.
On the basis of the above presented trend line it can be clearly indicated that
trend of the sales and revenue of Africa and the middle east is decreasing but
with the very low rate.
By assessing the current trend line it can be foretasted and estimated that the
Africa and middle east will generate low and reducing sales and revenue as
the year goes in the upcoming times.

Contd....
Forecasting of sales and revenue of Africa and middle east for the further financial years like as 2017 and
2018 is such as follows: f(x) = -0.4825 x + 112.30
For FY 2017
Q1 = -0.4825 * 13 + 112.30
= 106.0275 GBP
Q2 = -0.4825 * 14 + 112.30
= 105.545 GBP
Q3 = -0.4825 * 15 + 112.30
= 105.0625 GBP
Q4 = -0.4825 * 16 + 112.30
= 104.58 GBP
For FY 2018
Q1 = -0.4825 * 17 + 112.30
= 104.0975 GBP
Q2 = -0.4825 * 18 + 112.30
= 103.615 GBP
Q3 = -0.4825 * 19 + 112.30
= 103.1325 GBP
Q4 = -0.4825 * 20 + 112.30
= 102.65 GBP

REFERENCES
Link, D.F. and et.al., 2017. Management techniques for non-traditional
network and information system topologies. U.S. Patent 9,537,731.
Safwan, E.R., Meredith, R. and Burstein, F., 2016. Towards a Business
Intelligence Systems Development Methodology: Drawing on Decision
Support and Executive Information Systems.

Thank You!