A Quantitative Data Analysis Report on COVID-19 Impact on UK GDP

This report provides a quantitative analysis of the impact of COVID-19 on the UK's GDP, utilizing monthly GDP data from January 2018 to January 2022. It begins with a literature review discussing the business research problem of how COVID-19 led to a decline in the UK's GDP, referencing the Business Cycle model. The analysis employs descriptive statistics, charts, and diagrams to visualize and interpret the data. Key findings indicate a decline in GDP during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, followed by a recovery period. The report concludes that the pandemic caused businesses to enter a peak stage due to decreased demand, highlighting the negative impact on the UK economy and the subsequent recovery efforts. The report also references how some businesses managed to expand during the pandemic.

2. PROJECT1
QUANTITATIVE DATA
ANALYSIS REPORT
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Table of Contents
INTRODUCTION...........................................................................................................................3
Business Research Problem.........................................................................................................3
Literature Review........................................................................................................................3
Quantitative Analysis of the Dataset...........................................................................................6
Visualisations of data drawn from Quantitative analysis............................................................7
Findings from Quantitative Analysis and Charts.........................................................................8
CONCLUSION................................................................................................................................9
REFERENCES..............................................................................................................................11
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INTRODUCTION
Quantitative data analysis simply means the analysis of number based data or the data which
can be easily convertible in numbers. However, while converting data it is important to note that
data does not lose its meaning. The business research problem on which the present report is
based is “Impact of Covid-19 on the GDP of UK”. The report will discuss this business research
problem in the form of Literature Review using Business Cycle model. Further, the report will
also analyse the quantitative data such as Monthly GDP for the period of Jan. 2018 to Jan. 2022
using descriptive analysis tools, charts and diagrams. Lastly, the report will conclude the findings
of the quantitative data analysis.
Business Research Problem
“Impact of Covid-19 on the GDP of UK” is a selected research topic which will state how
the Covid-19 has leads to decrease in GDP. The decrease in GDP of UK means the economy of
UK is shrinking which is basically bad news for the businesses as well as workers. The problem
arises due to fall GDP is pay freezes and lost job. The Covid pandemic has caused the severe
recession which are not seen in the past 300 years (Keogh-Brown and et.al., 2020). Due to Covid
-19, the GDP of UK has declined for more than two quarters which are the sign of recession in
UK. This has hurt the businesses, employment and also force the government to borrow huge
amount of funds in order to support the economy as well as businesses. During Covid-19, the
businesses are unable to provide and deliver its goods to ultimate customer because of lack of
transport facility. Also, because of the fall in GDP the businesses average income has reduces
because of the insufficient consumer’s demand. Further, because of the reduction in the average
income of the businesses due to falling of GDP during Covid-19, the businesses start cutting
salary of their employees and also firing employee from job. Hence, the business research
problem for the current report is that how the Covid-19 has leads to decline in GDP which
further a huge loss for the businesses.
Literature Review
As per the opinion of Allas, Canal and Hunt, (2020), the decline in GDP due to Covid-19
has causes huge financial and revenue loss to the businesses. It is because the businesses have
faces insufficient consumer demand after the Covid-19 as people are starting shifting to basic
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needs products rather than spending unnecessary money on luxury products. It is because the
salary of UK people is highly cut by their employer during the pandemic and recession. As well
as during lock-down the business was unable to deliver its products such as perishable products
to its ultimate customer which causes spoilage of goods. The result of which the cost of
businesses has increases with minimum or low income. However, on the other hand, the Liu and
Lin (2021), has stated that in case if the GDP of the country increases that it will leads to better
economy of country. Also, this is work as a growth opportunity for the businesses. Rising GDP
means more jobs are likely to be created by the businesses and workers will get better pay rise.
In order to understand the relationship between GDP of the country and businesses
performance, the Business Cycle model is best. As stated by Galli (2018), the business cycle
model basically states the how a national GDP fluctuates over the period of time, going through
different phases as an increase or decrease in aggregate output. This model also states at which
phase of growth the businesses are currently in as per the change in the aggregate output or
country GDP. There are basically four phases in business cycle through which business move as
per change in national GDP over the period of time and these are as follows:
Expansion phase: This is the first phase of business cycle model which state that when
the real GDP of the country increases and unemployment rate of the country decreases, then
businesses lies in the expansion phase. This is a situation of positive output gap. According to the
views of Konon, Fritsch and Kritikos (2018), when the real GDP of the business increases, the
average income of the businesses increases because they have sufficient demand of consumers
for their products and services. The result of which the employer able to provide higher and
better wages as well as pay rise to its employees. The expansion stage also helps the businesses
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to create higher employment opportunities for the new comer or youth as the business able to
introduce its new operation in the local as well as international market. This ultimately leads to
contribution of business towards the decrease in unemployment rate of country.
Peak phase: However, on the other hand, the Behlul (2018), has stated that the cycle of
the business start turning to peak situation when the real GDP or aggregate output of the country
start decreasing rather than increasing over the period of time. The reason behind the fall in the
GDP and aggregate output of the country is sharp decline in the overall demand, fall in
consumption, decline in the investment, poor flow of money within the country. In the start of
the year 2020, when Covid-19 has come first time the businesses lies in the peak phase of
business cycle.
Recession phase: The recession phase of the business life cycle state the point at which
the GDP of the country decreases and unemployment rate increases over the period of time. As
per the opinion of Aldasoro and et.al. (2020), the recession is basically arising when the real
GDP of the nation decline for more than one two or three months. This is a phase which create
biggest problem for the business to deal in the market as their average income during this phase
start decreases. The impact of which they are unable to provide better or higher pay to the
employees which further leads to job loss which ultimately result into the decrease in
unemployment rate. Here, the businesses are unable to get sufficient demand from the customers
regarding their products and services because of the consumers changing spending pattern. This
is basically a situation of negative output gap.
Through phase: As stated by Indomo and Lubis (2022), this is the last stage of the
business cycle model which is a turning point for the businesses. It is because at this stage after
the recession ends, the real GDP and aggregate output start increasing again. From this point of
time, the unemployment rate of the country starts decreasing.
As per the opinion of Coulthard (2020), due to Covid-19, the GDP of UK has fall in the
year 2020 and the growth rate of GDP became negative in the same year. This indicate that the
businesses lie in the recession stage of the business cycle model which is basically a situation of
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negative output gap. Because of the recession phase in the pandemic period, the demand of the
businesses products and services starts declining rapidly. Further, the producers unable to see
this decline in demand and produces the products in high quantity. The result of which the
situation of excess supply in the market arises which tends to fall in the prices.
However, on the other hand, the Alam, Rampes and Ma (2021), has argued that there are
many businesses in the UK who have managed and increases its average income during the
Covid-19 and recession period. It is because such company offers basic needs products such as
health food, cloths as well as the education providers. Further, the Covid-19 has leads to great
recession all around the world but there are also many businesses which have expanded its
business because of its online channel of distribution. By arguing the above state, the Lahcen and
et.al., (2020), has stated that recession is the peak phase of the business cycle where the spending
patter of the consumers are highly decreases because of the high unemployment rate and
decrease GDP and high interest rates on the loans.
Quantitative Analysis of the Dataset
In order to analyse the quantitative dataset regarding the monthly GDP of the country UK,
the descriptive statistics tools have been used. Descriptive statistics is a brief summary statistic
that quantitatively summarises from a collection of data.
Monthly GDP
Mean 96.66734694
Standard Error 0.774873194
Median 98.7
Mode 99.9
Standard Deviation 5.42411236
Sample Variance 29.4209949
Kurtosis 7.756530059
Skewness -2.658570395
Range 25.8
Minimum 74.9
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Maximum 100.7
Sum 4736.7
Count 49
Visualisations of data drawn from Quantitative analysis
Figure 1 Graphical presentation showing changes in real GDP of UK from Jan 2018 to Jan
2022
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Figure 2 Graphical presentation showing movement in monthly GDP growth rate of UK from
Jan 2018 to Jan 2022
Findings from Quantitative Analysis and Charts
On the basis of the above descriptive statistical result regarding the monthly GDP dataset,
it is identified that the means of the given data set is 96.66734694. The total number of
observation taken for current quantitative analysis is 49 months i.e., from Jan 2018 to Jan 2022.
The mean result of the descriptive statistics states the average monthly GDP of UK country is
96.66734694. The median state that the middle value of dataset. Thus, the medial value of
monthly GDP that separates higher half from the lower half is 98.7. However, on the other hand,
the mode is also a descriptive statistic which is used for quantitative analysis that state the data
that appear most frequently in the data set (Allas, Canal and Hunt, 2020). After analyzing the
mean, median and mode of the quantitative data, it is found out that the mean is lower than the
median as well as mode which indicate that the distribution is negatively skewed.
Further, the standard deviation of the dataset is 5.42411236 which means that the SD of
UK monthly GDP is low. The low standard deviation means that the monthly GDP is clustered
around the mean of data set. From this it is found out that the standard deviation of dataset is
lower than the mean which means the data are skewed. The minimum and maximum of the
current dataset is 74.9 and 100.7 which indicate that the minimum value of monthly GDP of UK
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is 74.9 while on the other hand, the maximum value of UK GDP is 100.7 with the range of 25.8.
The range of current data set is low which indicate that in the 49 months, the GDP of UK are
neither highly increases nor it highly decreases.
Now, on the basis of the graphical presentation of UK monthly GDP and GDP growth rate,
it is found out that post covid-19, the monthly GDP of UK are increasing but during Covid-19
i.e., in the year 2020, the monthly GDP of the country are started falling or declining. Further, it
is also found out from the graph of GDP growth rate over the period of time that in the year
2020, the monthly growth rate of the GDP is negative. This means that the Covid-19 has affected
the monthly GDP of UK in negative way. On the basis of above quantitative data analysis and
graphical presentation, it is found out that during Covid-19, the real GDP of UK has decline
while in the post-covid-19 recovery, the GDP of UK starts increasing again. Further, it is also
found out that due to Covid-19 and decline in the GDP of UK, the business has entered its peak
stage (Galli, 2018). It is because the demand of their products and services in the UK market are
decreases. The recession stage or peak stage is arising when the national GDP and aggregate
output is decreasing and unemployment rate is increasing.
However, it is also found out from the above quantitative analysis is that skewness of the
dataset is -2.658570395 which means that the distribution of data is negatively skewed. Further,
it is also found out that the GDP of UK in the month January 2022 is 100.7 which is maximum
value of the dataset. This means that post covid-19, the economy of UK is improving and GDP
are again started increasing. It is also found out from the analysis is that descriptive statistics is
best for quantify and describe the basic characteristics of a dataset. The descriptive statistics
helps facilitating data virtualization (Konon, Fritsch and Kritikos, 2018).
At the end, on the basis of quantitative analysis it is found out that the impact of Covid-19
on the GDP of UK is biggest problem for businesses as their average income are heavily
declined due to decline GDP. Not only that, this has also created a problem for workers as they
salary get freeze and they face job loss as well.
CONCLUSION
After summing up the above information, it has been concluded that due to Covid-19 the
GDP or aggregate demand of UK has declined. This is basically a business problem as due to
low GDP the average income of the businesses decreases. Further, the report has also concluded
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that when the GDP of country decreases then businesses lies in the peak stage as per business
cycle model. This further result into the higher unemployment rate. The report has concluded
that due to fall in GDP in the year 2020 and negative GDP growth rate of UK in the same year,
the businesses average income has decreases. This is because of higher cost of wastage of goods
due to excess supply and lower demand and lower sales due to insufficient customer demands.
The report has analyzed the quantitative data using the descriptive statistic tool in excel and
different charts, diagrams etc.
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REFERENCES
Books and journals
Keogh-Brown, M. R. and et.al., 2020. The impact of Covid-19, associated behaviours and
policies on the UK economy: A computable general equilibrium model. SSM-population
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Allas, T., Canal, M. and Hunt, V., 2020. Covid-19 in the United Kingdom: Assessing jobs at risk
and the impact on people and places. McKinsey and Company Article. 11.
Liu, X. and Lin, Z., 2021. Impact of COVID-19 pandemic on electricity demand in the UK based
on multivariate time series forecasting with bidirectional long short term
memory. Energy. 227. p.120455.
Galli, A., 2018. Which indicators matter? Analyzing the Swiss business cycle using a large-scale
mixed-frequency dynamic factor model. Journal of Business Cycle Research. 14(2).
pp.179-218.
Konon, A., Fritsch, M. and Kritikos, A. S., 2018. Business cycles and start-ups across industries:
An empirical analysis of German regions. Journal of Business Venturing. 33(6). pp.742-
761.
Behlul, T., 2018. Studies in business cycles and macroeconomics (Doctoral dissertation).
Aldasoro, I. and et.al., 2020. Global and domestic financial cycles: variations on a theme.
Indomo, I. L. and Lubis, A. W., 2022. Capital structure behaviour among Indonesian property
developers during different business cycles. Journal of Financial Management of
Property and Construction.
Coulthard, P., 2020. Dentistry and coronavirus (COVID-19)-moral decision-making. British
Dental Journal. 228(7). pp.503-505.
Alam, A., Rampes, S. and Ma, D., 2021. The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on
research. Transl Perioper & Pain Med. 8(1). pp.312-314.
Lahcen, B. and et.al., 2020. Green recovery policies for the COVID-19 crisis: modelling the
Impact on the economy and greenhouse gas emissions. Environmental and Resource
Economics. 76(4). pp.731-750.
Online
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GDP monthly estimates, UK: January 2022. [Online]. Available through:<
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpmonthlyestimateuk/
january2022>
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