ENVS2116/6116 - Weather Systems Analysis: Renewable Energy Perspective

This report, prepared for a renewable energy company, examines the impact of weather systems, particularly Tropical Cyclones and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), on solar and wind farms in Australia. The study reviews several renewable energy projects, including Walcha Energy, SEA, Ceres Windfarm, and Port Augusta Energy Park, and assesses how these projects are affected by climate variations. It explores the influence of trade winds and ENSO on solar irradiation and wind patterns, and the resulting effects on electricity generation. The report utilizes data from the Bureau of Meteorology Australia to analyze the impact of weather events, such as tropical cyclones, on energy production, including rainfall and wind patterns. It emphasizes the need for energy companies to understand the climate's impact on renewable energy production, project planning, and the use of smart technology to mitigate disruptions. The conclusion highlights the significant influence of the atmospheric environment on the performance of wind and solar plants, emphasizing the need for adaptation strategies in the face of climate variability.

The Atmospheric Environment (2020)
ENVS2116/6116
Weather Systems Analysis

Abstract:-
Advancement in the technology of solar energy and Wind energy increases the demand for
electricity generation. Both powers contribute equally to reach the target. High levels of wind
farms and solar plants need to combine with the new regulatory policies to increase the
performance. This study related to how wind and solar plant affected by the natural disaster such
as Tropical Cyclones which includes El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Primary data are
collected by the Bureau of Metrology Australia and identify the influence of weather on the
location, how raining and flooding affects the solar and wind farm of Australia.
Introduction:-
Australia invested more than $20 billion on the project of storage pipeline used for the solar and
wind farms in 2018. According to the data of CERA (Clean Energy Regulator Australia),
Australia installed a new renewable energy plant that provides around 10,400MW energy in the
year of 2018 and 2019. Large scale renewable plants provide power up to 7,200MW, and small
scale plants provide power up to 3,200MW (Anon, 2020). Installation of these plants goes on
increases in Australia because demand is increasing, and the target is to achieve at least 25%
installation up to 2050 (Hendricks, Braun, Vigh and Courtney, 2019).
1. Most significant Renewable projects of solar and wind in Australia:-
Australia's generated 20% of electricity from the renewable energy sources.There are various
projects of Wind and Solar energy at Different locations. I am a part of these following projects,
which are developed by the company 'Mirus Wind and Energy Estate.' The main aim is to
analyze the impact of Atmospheric environments such as El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
on these power plants.
1.1 Project of ‘Walcha Energy’:- The cost of this project is approximately $5bn and located in
New South Wales. It is a combination of solar energy and onshore wind energy with hydro
storage. Walcha Energy is an all-in-one project. It is situated in the South of Armidale (New
England), and its length is 55 km. This plant can fulfill the demand of electricity up to
4,000MW, which is equivalent to 15 % of the total energy generated by renewable resources

(Fircroft, 2020). The "MirusWind and Energy Estate develop Walcha Energy plant." The main
target of this project to reduce the dependency on fossil fuels for the generation of electricity.
Figure1. Walcha Energy power plant in the of New South Wales (Australia)(Fircroft, 2020)
1.2. SEA (Sunshine Energy Australia):- SEA is a solar plant, located in Queensland. It
generates electricity from solar energy and supplies approximately 300,000 households of the
Queensland every year.
Figure:2 Solar Energy plant located in Queensland (Australia) (Fircroft, 2020)
1.3. Onshore Ceres Windfarm:- Ceres wind farm is located on South Australia with a cost of
£1.1bn.

This project claimed that it is a first project which supplies the wind power to the capital
city with the help of undersea cables. It is located on the Yorke Peninsula (South Australia).
This plant can generate electricity up to 600MW.
Figure 3:- Onshore Ceres Windfarm located at Yorke Peninsula (South Australia)
(Fircroft, 2020)
1.4. Port Augusta Energy Park:-Port Augusta Energy Park is located in South Australia. This
renewable energy park is situated in the center point, where the wind and solar power availability
is high. The cost of this project is $1bn. Port Augusta Energy Park has both features- solar
photovoltaic and wind turbine. It spreads across the 5400 hectares of the land. It is located from
the Port Paterson to Winninowie and covers one complete high way coming on the way. The
total generating capacity of this plant is approximately 375MW and provides the service to
154,000 households of South Australia.

Figure 4:- Port Augusta Energy Park located in South Australia (Fircroft, 2020)
2. El Niño: - It is the abnormal weather condition in Australia, arises when the ocean emits the
heat near the equator of the coast area. The sun irradiation warms the water, which is near the
equator. Due to this impact, Clouds are formed. Wind trade affected by rainfall, which contains
hot water blows with air. In the mid of the year, ENSO (El Niño southern oscillation) remains
the same. Indicators such as SOI (Southern Oscillation Index), Cloudiness of data line, Upper-
surface temperatures, Trade Winds, and temperature of Sea surface all in the tropical pacific at
remains at neutral level (Meteorology 2020). The climate model presented by the ENSO
indicates that climate change in the mid-years in April remains neutral. It has a positive impact
on the environment during this period.
Warmer waters on the tropical surface of the ocean generate the persistent cloud in that
region. This pattern increases the rainfall in the western pacific region of Australia. According to
the prediction of the El Niño southern oscillation (ENSO), the autumn season has less accuracy.
From December to April, IOD (The Indian Ocean Dipole) also influences the climate of
Australia. Currently, SAM (Southern Annular Mode) is on the neutral state but its small impact
due to rainfall in Australia during the autumn season. Currently, changes in the temperature of
the Pacific Ocean are analyzed and decline equally as El Niño was in 1998. We observed that in
2010 the temperature of El Niño was very high, and the weather was warmer as compared to the
previous year (Cook & Watkins 2016).
.

Figure 5:- Forecast Observation that decline in the year of 2015 to 2016 and compare El
Niño records from the year 1997 to 1998 and 2009–2010 (Cook & Watkins 2016)
From the graph of the El Niño observed that the line decline in the year of 2015-2016 is more as
compared to other years 1950 and 2010. More substantial the El Niño more significant will be
the impact on the weather condition of the globe (Marjani, Alizadeh-Choobari and Irannejad,
2019). A strong influence on the weather was felt in the year 2015–2016 around the world.
Figure 6:- Impact of El Niño across the globe (Cook & Watkins 2016)

2.1 Impact of El Niño in Australia:-
Australia climatic conditions vary rapidly from one year to the next coming year. The impact of
the weather in Australia varies according to region and time.
Figure 7:- Globe's warming trend added by El Niño which shows that 2015 was recorded
the world’s hottest year and it indicates that next years will be hotter (Australian 2020)
3. Trades Winds in Australia:-
Trade winds blow from the southern hemisphere regions. These are east to south East blowing
winds, which affects the tropical and subtropical area of the Australia. Below diagram shows that
wind trade is part of atmospheric global circulation.

Figure 8:- Southern hemisphere of Trade winds located in the North of Australia- 5 days
wind lines (Australian 2020)
This hemisphere represents a high-pressure system that shows the high-pressure region known as
subtropicall ridge. Observation of Wind blowing is taken for five days in March. The graph
shows that the strength of the wind on the first day is weaker than the average wind of the
tropical Pacific.
4. Impact of El Niño on the Wind and Solar Energy in Australia:-
The pattern of wind and solar not remain same every time. It has a negative impact on the solar
and wind plant. After observing the data, the scientist of Columbia’s Earth Institute found that
climate conditions such as El Niño can change the sun irradiation and wind blowing pattern in
the long term. Issues are brought in the notice for the generation of electricity, and it varies from
year to year and decade to decades. Wind energy fulfilled the demand for heat and cooling up to
61 to 98% in the previous years, and the next decade provided energy was in the range of 129 to
200% (Michaels, 2020). This long term variation in the climate influences the ENSO (El Niño
Southern Oscillation), PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) and NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation).
Alteration in the supply of solar and wind power due to climate variation influences the supply of
electricity in the Port Augusta Energy Park, Onshore Ceres Windfarm, Walcha Energy plant, and
Sunshine Energy plant located in various parts of Australia. Scientists found that the relation
between demand and supply is complex. Sometimes both go up at a time. E.g.:- If the sky is clear
from the several days, then the generation of solar power will be high, and the demand for air

conditioning will be high. In another case, if the wind carries cold air in the winter season, then
the lack of wind energy leads to an increase in the demand for heating at the location where wind
supply is less than the average speed (Michaels, 2020).
Energy companies need to understand the impact of climate on renewable energy production.
Valurablity in weather not only influences the production of renewable energy in the given area
but also impacts the project planning, which is related to the transmission and the storage of
energy (Walsh et al., 2015).
By using the smart technology for the interconnected system, significant disruption on the grid
panel of wind and solar due to climate variation can be reduced. Companies such as Port
Augusta Energy Park, Sunshine Energy Australia, and Onshore Ceres Wind farm know that
usually El Niño reduces the solar power utility but increases the generation of the wind power at
the plants located in Australia. All the grids of solar and wind plants supply the electricity in
various parts of Australia. Some images are taken from the Radar to shows the cyclone's impact
on the solar and wind plant (Dufois, Lowe, Branson, and Fearns, 2017).
Figure 9:- Tropical low level 1 shows on the map (Australian 2020)

Figure 10:- Map shows the Tropical low-level cyclone at 4:00 pm AEST (Australian 2020)
The forecast indicates by the Bureau of Meteorology and estimates the future intensity and
movements of the tropical cyclone. Gray zone in the figure shows the cyclone center. It shows
that wind flow can be extended outside the ring shown on the map. It also predicts the warning
zones (Williamson et al., 2014).
5. Tropical low level 4:00 pm AEST:- It means that the intensity of the tropical low-level
winds speed is 35 km/hr. and speed of strongest wind flow is 85 km/hr. Location is with in 75
km at 14.5 degrees towards South and 146.9 degrees towards East. This tropical low is located

near the Coral Sea and expected to a developed cyclone on Friday night. This system
continuously forecasts the weather of Australia (Roy and Kovordányi, 2012).
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology provides the detail of the Queensland
region where the solar plant -SEA (Sunshine Energy Australia) is located. This forecast shows
the impact of the cyclone on this energy plant.
Figure11:-Information about Tropical Cyclone (Australian 2020)
Figure 12:- This figure shows the forecast for rainfall rate from this analysis we predict the
effect on the electricity generation from the wind or solar plants located in Australia
(Australian 2020)

Figure 13:-Weather shows the Forecast Map of effect on Rainfall on the solar and wind
farms of Australia (Australian 2020)
Figure 14:- Weather shows the Forecast Map of effect on Wind wave on the Windfarm of
Australia (Australian 2020)

Figure 15:- shows the wind speed at the location of Tropical low level (Australian 2020)
Figure 16:- From this figure, we analyze the impact on wind power generation. The rapid
change in wind power will affect the efficiency of the plant (Government 2020)

Figure 17:- Forecast indicates the speed of the wind and shows the change in the climate
(Australian 2020)
Conclusion:-
From the observation of the Australian climate, it is concluded that the Atmospheric environment
profoundly influences the power of wind and solar plants. Data is analyzed through time and
observed how the historical change in the climate affects the observing locations. Data from the
study provides the daily record of the Australian tropical cyclone, and it helps the researcher to
understand how seasonal and long term changes affect the day to day weather such as frequency
of cold and heatwaves.

References:-
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