Climate Change Impacts in Victoria, Australia

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Abstract
The consequences of climate change are already being experienced in Victoria Australia. More
impacts and trends are projected to be felt in all sectors of the economy and in all ecosystems.
Victoria is already becoming more warm and dry and is likely to continue into the future.
Communities, local residents and businesses are changing their ways of operation so as to cope
with the changing climatic conditions. This report gives a summary of the previous research in
Victoria on climate and effects for the past few years, 21st century climate change projections and
projected impacts either direct or indirect as described (Keywood, et al., 2016).
Introduction
The climate in Australia has significantly changed consistently with worldwide trends.
Over the 20th century, Australia's has recorded an average temperatures rise of about 1 ̊C. The
rising temperatures have led to a decrease in the occurrence of frosts and the number of cold
days while the number of severely hot days rise. The amount of rainfall received in north-west
Australia have been rising as the amount in the south-east and south-west reduce. The levels of
the seas are rising and the oceans are warming as the global average temperatures rise. Victoria's
climate has been changing with the national trends and is expected to keep changing for the
coming years and this may lead to extreme risks and challenges to the nation. The increasing
temperatures have made Victoria very hot and dry, a trend which together with the continued
occurrence of severe events such as bushfires, heatwaves, floods and droughts pose dangerous
risks to the nation's agriculture, infrastructure, ecosystems, health, and coasts (Bureau of
Meteorology, 2013).
Climatic Changes that are exposed to Victoria, Australia
Rainfall, floods, and drought
In 2010 and 2011, Victoria received heavy rains but now the conditions are different as it
experiences extreme drying trend of about two decades. There has been a reduction in rainfall by
about 10-20% over the late winter and autumn season. The reduction in the amount of rainfall
has surpassed the projected models for a period of 20 years.

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La Nina effects and high warm ocean temperatures led to a lot of rains in the years 2010-
2011 resulted in floods in Victoria. The severe floods caused extensive damage to townships,
important services, rural and residential properties, and agriculture. It is projected that for the
coming century, dry conditions will continue across Victoria and average rainfall will decrease
during spring and winter seasons (Raktima, et al., 2019).
Temperature
Since 1960, Victoria's maximum temperature has risen by 1.1 ̊C while the minimum
temperatures have risen by 0.9 ̊C. The average number of yearly hot days have been increasing.
The number of intensive and too much hot weather days and high-temperature records set in the
summer 2012-2013 was remarkable (Ashcroft, et al., 2012).
Bushfire
From 1973-2010, the Forest Fire Danger Index has significantly risen in Victoria.
Extreme temperatures, low humidity, and high winds are projected to become more common in
future hence triggering intense and large fires. The extent of vegetation necessary for fuelling
fires is expected to increase. By 2020 the number of fire vulnerable days is expected to rise as
average temperature increase by 4%-25% and 15%-70% by 2050 (Hennessy, 2009).
Black Saturday bushfires which occurred in 2009 is the ever most severe Victoria's
bushfire which led to the loss of 173 lives, burnt about 400000 ha, damaged over 2000 properties
and affected 78 communities. The bushfire occurred on one of the driest and hottest summers in
Victoria. The temperature in Melbourne rose to 46.4 ̊C on Saturday 7 February 2009 without any
rain. The conditions combined with low humidity and high wind speeds formed favourable
conditions for the occurrence of the disaster due to the overall climate change. The fires were
ignited by sparks that were falling from power lines (Cameron, et al., 2009).
Sea Level
Since the late 1980s, there has been a record rise in global sea levels by an average of
about 20cm. The rate of change has been increasing over the past 20years. There is a projection
that a rise of 50-100 cm may occur this century due to the influence of the state of main ice