Contents Calculations............................................................................................................................. 2 Task 1 – What is the payback period of the project? ............................................................. 3 Task 2 – What is the profitability Index of the project? ......................................................... 4 Task 3 – What is the IRR of the project? ................................................................................ 4 Task 4 – What is the NPV of the project? ............................................................................... 5 Task 5 – How sensitive is the NPV to changes in the price of the new smartphone? ........... 5 Task 6 – How sensitive is the NPV to changes in the quantity sold? ..................................... 7 Task 7 – Should EMU Electronics produce the new smart phone?........................................ 8 Task 8 – Suppose EMU Electronics loses sales on other models because of the introduction of the new model. How would this affect your analysis? ...................................................... 9 Bibliography .......................................................................................................................... 10
Calculations EMU electronics is going to invest in developing a new and more enhanced smartphone, however, the company must take a lot of factors into consideration before deciding if the investment will be profitable. To find out if the investment will be profitable, it is necessary to calculate the information that has been given to be able to find the payback period, profitability index, the IRR and the NPV. In year 0 the initial investment is recorded and that is the plant and machinery, what the company invested in the marketing research and the prototype development of the new product. In years 1 to 5 we can see the cash flow from the sales of the new smartphone, it is known that the price per unit is 485 and we have information on how many units were sold from years 1-5. From the cashflow information that has now been gathered it is time to subtract the variable cost which was 205 per unit and the fixed cost and lastly the depreciation as can be seen in table 1. After that the pre- tax cash flow has been calculated. Table 1 – Pre-tax cash flow YearCash flowVariable costFixed costDepreciationPretax CF 0-35.450.000-35.450.000 131.040.000-13.120.000- 5.100.0005.800.00018.620.000 251.410.000-21.730.000- 5.100.0005.800.00030.380.000 342.195.000-17.835.000- 5.100.0005.800.00025.060.000 437.830.000-15.990.000- 5.100.0005.800.00022.540.000 526.190.000-11.070.000- 5.100.0005.800.00015.820.000 Now it is time to find the cash flow after tax, it is known that the tax is 30% so it is necessary to multiply the cashflow with 30% each year and then subtract it to the pre-tax CF to find the after-tax cash flow. Next step is to apply the required return to the after-tax cash flow to get the present value, this needs to be done to adjust the time value of the money. The formula used to find the required return is: 1/(1+r)n where:n: the year of cashflowr: rate.
(Pike and Neale, 2009) After having calculated the required return, we multiply that with the after-tax cashflow and get the present value. The calculations can be seen in table 2. Table 2 – Tax and present value YearTax 30%CF after taxRequired return 12%Present value 0-35.450.0001- 35.450.000 1-5.586.00013.034.0000,89285714311.637.500 2-9.114.00021.266.0000,79719387816.953.125 3-7.518.00017.542.0000,71178024812.486.049 4-6.762.00015.778.0000,63551807810.027.204 5-4.746.00011.074.0000,5674268566.283.685 NPV21.937.563 Task 1–What is the payback period of the project? Thepaybackperiodisanapproachthatisusedtoanalyseinvestmentsandgives information on how long it takes for the future cash flow to match the initial cash outlay, or just in simpler words how long does it take for an investment to be profitable? (Pike and Neale, 2009) The formula is: (initial investment – opening cumulative CF)/(closing – opening CF) By using the information from table 3 and using the formula: Payback period = we get 2 + (1.150.000/17.452.000) = 2,066 years Table 3 – Payback period Payback period YearAnnual CFCumulative CF 0- 35.450.000-35.450.000 113.034.000-22.416.000 221.266.000-1.150.000 317.542.00016.392.000 415.778.00032.170.000 511.074.00043.244.000
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Task 2–What is the profitability Index of the project? The profitability index describes the relationship between the cost and benefits of a proposed project. If the Profitability index is greater than 1 the project is considered acceptable. (Pike and Neale, 2009) The formula is: PI = PV benefits/PV outlay By using the information from table 2, it is possible to calculate the Profitability Index. PI = (21.937.563+35.450.000)/35.450.000 = 1,62. Because the PI is greater than 1 the project is considered acceptable. Task 3–What is the IRR of the project? IRR or initial rate of return gives information on the rate of return that an investment will provide based on the amount of the original investment that remains outstanding during any period, combining the interest annually. Using the IRR rate involves changing the discount rate so the NPV will be equal or close to zero, if the IRR is greater than predetermined discount rates the investment should be accepted. (Pike and Neale, 2009) The formula is: IRR = DR1+(DR2-DR1)*NPV1/(NPV1-NPV2) Table 4 – Initial rate of return IRR YearCF after tax Required return 12%PVRequired return 35%PV 0-35.450.0001-35.450.0001- 35.450.000 113.034.0000,89285714311.637.5000,7389243849.631.140 221.266.0000,79719387816.953.1250,54600924511.611.433 317.542.0000,71178024812.486.0490,4034595457.077.487 415.778.0000,63551807810.027.2040,2981260954.703.834 511.074.0000,5674268566.283.6850,2202926412.439.521 NPV21.937.563NPV13.415
Using the information available from table 4 it is known that: DR1 = 12%NPV1 = 21.937.564 DR1= 35%NPV2 = 13.415 IRR = 12%+(35%-12%)-21.937.564/(21.937.564-13.415) = 0,35 This gives information that the IRR is slightly above 35%, therefore, the project should be accepted because the IRR is higher than the predetermined required return which is 12%. Task 4–What is the NPV of the project? NPV or net present value is the difference between the present value of cash inflows and the present value of cash outflow over a period of time and is used to analyse the profitability of a investment. If the NPV is greater than 1 it means that the project should be accepted. (Investopedia, 2021) The formula: Where:Rt= Net cash inflow-outflows during a single period t i = Discount rate or return that could be earned in alternative investment t = number of time periods As can be seen in table 2 and table 4 the NPV is the sum of the PV or 21.937.563. The NPV is a positive number which means that the project should be acceptable. Task 5–How sensitive is the NPV to changes in the price of the new smartphone? To find how sensitive the NPV is to changes in the price it is necessary to look at what the NVP would be in different prices. The actual price is 485 per unit, let’s make the price 10% lower and 10% higher and see what the NPV is based on the higher and lower prices. (Lumby and Jones)
Table 5 – NPV at different prices. Unit priceNPV 10% lower436,512.303.173 Actual price48521.937.563 10% higher533,531.571.954 From table 5 it is clear that when the price goes down the NPV goes down and when the price goes up the NPV goes up, but how sensitive is the NPV to the changes in price? Let’s put table 5 into a graph. Graph 1 From the graph it is possible to find the slope/steepness, the formula for that is: Slope = Rise/Run = (y2-y1)/(x2-x1) Slope = (21.937.563-12.303.173)/(485-436,5) = 198.647 For every unit of x, how far does y move? Y moves by 198.647 or in other words for every change in the price the NPV moves by 198.647. - 10.000.000 20.000.000 30.000.000 40.000.000 400420440460480500520540560 NPV Price How sensetive is the NPV to changes in the price of the new smartphone?
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Task 6–How sensitive is the NPV to changes in the quantity sold? To find how sensitive the NPV is to changes in quantity sold like in the earlier task it is necessary to find out what the NPV will be based on higher and lower quantities sold. Lets see what the NVP will be based on 10% higher and lower quantities sold. Table 6 – NPV at different amounts units sold yearUnits soldNPV 10% Lower157.600 16.375.441 295.400 378.300 470.200 548.600 Actual units164.000 21.937.563 2106.000 387.000 478.000 554.000 10% higher170.400 27.499.686 2116.600 395.700 485.800 559.400 From table 6 we can see that when units sold go down the NPV also goes down and the other way around, when the unit sold go up the NPV goes up too. We are unable to put table 7 into a graph, however, it is possible to find the average of the actual units sold from year 1-5 which is 77.800 and then find out what 10% increase and decrease of 77.800 units sold would be and based on that information find out what the NPV is. (Lumby and Jones) Table 7 – NPV at different amounts units sold Units soldNPV 10% lower70.02015.788.001 Correct77.80021.284.852 10% higher85.58026.781.703 Now let’s put table 8 into a graph:
Graph 2 From the graph we can find the slope/steepness, the formula for that is: Slope = Rise/Run = (y2-y1)/(x2-x1) Slope = (21.284.852-15.788.001)/(77.800-70.020) = 706 For every unit of x, how far does y move? Y moves by 706 or in other words for every unit that changes the NPV moves by 706. Task 7–Should EMU Electronics produce the new smart phone? The IRR is 35%, or higher than the required return that is 12%, therefore, the project should be accepted. The profitability index is 1,62, therefore, the PI exceeds 1 and the project should be accepted. The Net Present Value is 21.937.563, therefore, the NPV exceeds 1 and the project should be accepted. According to all the calculations that have been done with the PI, IRR and NPV it is clear that the project should be accepted and it is expected to be a success. 15.000.000 17.000.000 19.000.000 21.000.000 23.000.000 25.000.000 27.000.000 29.000.000 65.00070.00075.00080.00085.00090.000 NPV Units sold How sensitive is the NPV to changes in the quantity sold?
Task8–SupposeEMUElectronicslosessalesonothermodels because of the introduction of the new model. How would this affe your analysis? When a company introduces a new product to the market that is somewhat like their other existing products it is very likely that they will lose sales on the existing products as a result of the customer base wanting to purchase newer products. This term is called market cannibalization and could lead to no increase in the company’s market share despite the sales growth of the new product. (Investopedia, 2021) When it comes to the analysis that I have performed the result is that this does not have an effect on it in my opinion. The effect that the losing of sales on other models could have is more on the company itself, however, even if the company will lose an amount on sales on other products it is gaining sales on the new product that they are introducing to the market.
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Bibliography Investopedia. (2021).Net Present Value (NPV). [online] Available at: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/n/npv.asp [Accessed 3 Mar. 2021]. Pike, Richard, and Bill Neale.Corporate Finance and Investment : Decisions and Strategies. Harlow, Financial Times/Prentice Hall, 2009. Lumby, Stephen, and Chris Jones.Corporate Finance : Theory & Practice.Andover, South-Western Cengage Learning, 2011. Investopedia. (2021).Understanding Market Cannibalization. [online] Available at: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/marketcannibilization.asp [Accessed 3 Mar. 2021].