Factors Affecting Accuracy of Early Stage Building Cost Estimates

This essay discusses the impact of project complexity on the cost estimation of construction during the early stages of design implementation. It highlights the different factors and characteristics of project complexity that can influence the cost estimation of building elements like external walls.

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FACTORS AFFECTING ACCURACY OF EARLY STAGE BUILDING COST ESTIMATES
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Introduction
Construction industry is one of the most important sector of development across the
world and the cost of construction is an essential element that cannot be separated from it.
Having realistic cost estimation is very vital to ensure a successful planning and completion of
the project within the schedule (Baker & English, 2011). The key factor of achieving the success
of a project is the accurate cost estimation of construction at the early stages. However, it is
always hard to get it right at the first time when the project information is limited.
Even with the advancement in technology, most projects are unable to meet their
objectives. According to Hass (2009), it conducted a successful survey and found out that only
32% of all projects delivered meet the requirements in terms of features and functions. Recent
studies shows that complex projects are increasingly causing a challenge on the cost estimation
on construction due to their different factors in terms of complexity. Therefore, this essay will
highlight how complexity of projects can affect the cost estimation of construction during the
early stages of design implementation.
Complexity in construction is a situation where the building elements are in large amount
and are interconnected and interdependent with each other (Cicmil, et al., 2007). However, their
influence on each other cannot be predetermined.
Dimension of complexity
In the recent years, the world has experienced the growth of complex projects that have
been of great importance to the society. However, this projects have faced challenges and often
fail due to cost overruns. Complexity of projects can cause different problems in construction
such as underestimation of costs, overestimation, misalignment of the projects goal due to

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different views by the stakeholders, failure to meet the client’s needs (Cooke-Davies, et al.,
2011). Lack of the right technology and resources to manage the complex project which may
lead to overworking the laborers hence low performance.
Projects vary in terms of their complexities, duration and costs that pose challenges to the
project success. Table 1 gives the complexity profile that help examine the nature of complex
project characteristics as their dimensions increase.
Table 1: Size/Time/Cost complexity profile (Source: Danilovic & Browning, 2007)
In most cases, the complex projects cannot be approached using the existing processes
and practices because of their non-linearity tendency, and emergent behavior. In most cases, this
calls for an important team of engineers to be formed to figure out the mathematical calculations
on the stability of some elements and how they should be modelled and fixed to ensure safety of
the building is achieved. This process will definitely mean extra cost will be incurred. An
example of this situation happened during the construction of Burj Al Arab hotel in Dubai, which

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is considered to be the third tallest hotel in the world. In the middle of construction, the architect
and the contractor got into an argument due to the designs complexity. The architect wanted a
part of the building to protrude outwards as if it was hanging in space. The allocated space
should be used for dinner purposes so that the users could have a feeling that they are having
dinner in space. The engineers had the toughest task of their life to come up with a solution to
transform the architect’s dreams into reality. A team was formed to figure out this menace, and
indeed it was done, but with extra cost.
Project complexity factors and characteristics
Figure 1: Drivers of project complexity (Source: Geraldi, 2008)
The project size
The size of a project is an important factor when you consider the complexity of the
project. There is a minimum size that a project must surpass to be considered complex. As a
result, complexity of a project makes the size of the project system to seem huge. Therefore, it is
necessary to identify the parameters that characterize the building size which gives the project
manager the first analysis of the complexity of the project (Danilovic & Browning, 2007).
The variety of the project

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The undertaking framework assortment seems to drive venture multifaceted nature as
well. According to Flyvbjerg, et al., (2010) "decent variety relates nearly to the quantity of rising
properties" and is an essential condition for venture multifaceted nature. As underlined by
Geraldil, "one thing that is evident is that unpredictability is tied up with variety, be it in the
realm of science, material science or assembling.
Interdependencies within the project system
As stated by Geraldi (2008), interdependencies are probably going to be the best drivers
of undertaking intricacy. Merrow (2011), clarify that "experience recommends that the
interrelationships between the undertaking's parts are more mind boggling than is proposed by
the conventional work breakdown structure of venture arrangement", recommending that
customary task administration devices can't be adequate to get the truth of reliance. This appears
to be simply more risky since "there is an entire relationship between the segments of the many-
sided quality: every component will depend and effect on the others" (Merrow, 2011).
Context-dependence
Merrow (2011) states that logic is a fundamental element of many-sided quality, thinking
about it as a shared factor of any mind boggling framework. Task many-sided quality setting
reliance is additionally underlined by Flyvbjerg, et al. (2010) who strikingly demand the way that
"the specific circumstance and practices that apply to one anticipate are not specifically
transferable to different undertakings with various institutional and social designs.
Conclusion

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Complexity has different variables that can affect the project’s cost estimation. These
complexity dimensions can also end up influencing each other. This dynamic conditions calls for
all stakeholders involved in the construction industry to come up with a cost estimation model
that is able to factor in all this several dimensions, which cannot be achieved by having static
nature of the normal set of regulations. This approach will definitely help planners to consider
the complexity dimensions of a project, get all the information needed, consult on what is not
clear in the project details and modify the construction plan according to the projects complexity.
Part 2
Building element selected is the external wall
Elements Vs Trade
1. Brick wall
Natural thick Milton Hall facing bricks, 65mm standard,
Walling bedded and jointed in cement and sand (1:3) mortar in 200mm, course height
Brick layer
Natural thick Milton Hall facing bricks, 65mm
305mm thick walling
Reinforcement with and including 25mm wide x 20mm gauge hoop iron and column
wall ties at every alternate course.

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External wall finish
15 mm cement and sand (1:3) render,finished with woodfloat to;
 Concrete/masonry surfaces to receive wall finishes (m.s.)
 Ditto to opening reveals
References

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Baker, H. K. & English, P. 2011. Capital budget valuation: Financial analysis for today's
investment projects. New York, NY: John Wiley & Sons.
Cicmil, S., Crawford, L., Richardson, K. & Cooke-Davies, T. 2007. We're not in Kansas
anymore, Toto: Mapping the strange landscape of complexity, and its relationship with project
management. Project Management Journal, 38(2).
Cooke-Davies, T., Crawford, L., Patton, J. R., Stevens, C. & Williams, T. M. 2011. Aspects of
complexity: Managing projects in a complex world. Newtown Square, PA: Project Management
Institute.
Danilovic, M. & Browning, T. R. 2007. Managing complex product development projects with
design structure matrices and domain mapping matrices. International Journal of Project
Management, 25(3), 300–314.
Flyvbjerg, B., Bruzeluis, N. & Rothengatter, W.2010. Megaprojects and risk: An anatomy of
ambition. Cambridge, MA: Cambridge University Press.
Geraldi, J. 2008. Patterns of complexity: The thermometer of complexity. Project Perspectives,
29,4–9.
Hass, K. 2009. Managing complex projects: Anew model. Tysons Corner, VA: Management
Concepts Press.
Merrow, E. W. 2011. Industrial megaprojects: Concepts, strategies, and practices for
success. New York, NY: John Wiley & Sons.