Climate Change and Political Instability

This paper elaborates on the role of climate change in creating political instability in the Horn of Africa region. It discusses the impact of global warming on the physical landscape and geopolitical changes that threaten to destabilize vulnerable regions. The paper also highlights the challenges faced by the Horn of Africa, including structural weaknesses and exposure to climate change risks.

Running head: CLIMATE CHANGE AND POLITICAL INSTABILITY
CLIMATE CHANGE AND POLITICAL INSTABILITY
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Climate change has become an overriding fact of life globally. “The impact of global
warming on the physical landscape of the world often results in geopolitical changes that
further threaten to destabilize the vulnerable regions such as Horn in Africa.” According to
Schelffers et al. (2016), the emphasis on the natural resources in the contemporary world
undermines the potential of the countries to govern themselves and at the same time, also
maximizes the chances of political conflicts within the region. “When climate change is
compared to the other different drivers of international or global security risks, the former
could be modeled with a comparatively high level of certainty from the later.” This paper
shall elaborate on discussing the role of climate change in the process of creating political
instability in this region- Horn, Africa.
The present gauge of climate change like the decreasing of ice in the Arctic region,
the higher level of seas, the high rainfall variability, the melting of glaciers and the excellent
level of storms are the scenarios that the settled societies of human beings have never have
experienced before. Such dynamics can influence the foundational resources that individuals,
countries rely upon for survival, security, and prosperity: notably water and food (Nightingale
2017). “These influences are already conducive to accumulated state fragility and security
issues in critical regions around the globe – conflict within the Mideast and Asian areas,
tensions over the fisheries within the South China Ocean, and a brand new economic and
political field in the melting Arctic Ocean. Climate modification, by neutering the physical
landscape of the world, is additionally altering its political landscape. If governments fail to
mitigate this, the risks of instability and conflict can increase, and become tougher to
manage” (de Waal and Rachel 2016). This is often the situation in several regions present in
the world. Notwithstanding this fact, the Horn of the continent is especially endangered,
given a mixture of structural weaknesses and also the vital exposure to risks of global climate
change. This increases the chance of instability and conflict on the land.

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As claimed by Orlove, Crane and Roncoli (2016), over the passage of time, global
climate change stresses on the natural resources will degrade a country’s capability of
controlling itself. This includes its potential of satisfying the demands of its citizens for the
necessary supplies such as food, water, energy, and employment. “The threat to output
legitimacy is likely to aid to internal conflict, state fragility, and even state collapse. ”“Seen
through this lens, the global climate change might gift a massive challenge to the state
stability and legitimacy within the Horn, which can be regarded as a region that is already
grappling with various challenges before climate change became an element”. “These
challenges have also been confirmed by the UN council during a Gregorian calendar month
2018 Statement by its President” (Ruttig 2018). As per the statement- “The Security Council
recognises the adverse effects of global climate change and ecological changes among
different factors on the steadiness of West Africa and also the Sahel region, together with
through drought, geological process, land degradation and food insecurity, and emphasizes
the necessity for adequate risk assessments and risk management methods by governments
and also the UN regarding these factors.”
“According to the Fragile States Index of The Fund for Peace, Horn comprises of
some of the highly vulnerable states within the world like Ethiopia, Eritrea, Kenya, Sudan,
and South Sudan.” It also showcases several most visible indications of a link among global
climate change and conflict, particularly, the disputes among the rural and agricultural
communities that are precipitated by the climate-exacerbated water and droughts variability
(Fawcett 2017). As claimed by Buhhaug (2016), climate change is a security risk. In the year
2015, the U.S. Department of Defence has issued a report in which it was said it was
observing the influence of climate change in stressors and shocks to the vulnerable
communities and nations (Buhhaug 2016). As per the very report, there were a total of four

3CLIMATE CHANGE AND POLITICAL INSTABILITY
general areas of security risks related to the climate, and they include the reoccurring
conditions of drought, higher temperatures, and flooding.
Scott and Khan (2016) in this context have opined that along with an increasing level
of accuracy, how the changes in the climatic conditions can scale up to the high level of
security issues if they are left unmitigated. It is to mention that in Horn, droughts, along with
the other different climatic factors, are already increasing the pressure on the communities in
Africa and they are hence, required to migrate elsewhere. The ones who have no means of
moving also face the risk of being trapped and fight it challenging to move to a safer and
secure location. It is assumed that shortly, the decrease in the level of precipitation in Horn
and the level of increase in the extreme weather events will highten the scale or degree of
migration in the region. This will again contribute to political instability. As per Lucas and
Kathleen (2016), “States that are already politically fragile are the most likely future
epicenters for climate-related violence and forced migration events." It is also to note that
among the top twenty highest ranked nations that are fragile, twelve of them are set in the
areas of the South Asian, Center East Asia and Africa, where the change in climate is
expected to form significant levels of water scarcity, and that is inclusive of the five
significant nations of Horn- Sudan, South Sudan, Kenya, Eritrea, and Somalia.
The change in the water accessibility, as well as multiplied inadequacy of, and access
to, water exacerbated by an ever-changing climate, conjointly open up opportunities for states
and non-state actors to make use of the water as their weapon In an exceedingly recent study
by Mirumachi, Sawas and Workman (2019), African country has been particularly
susceptible to this nexus of climate, conflict and water weaponization. In 2011, the African
nation was hit by regional droughts that are coupled to temperature change. Throughout this
point, as King notes, Muslim fundamentalist cluster Al-Shabaab modified its old guerilla
ways and commenced to chop off liberated cities from their water sources so that they may

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showcase a minimum of some quite power and presence. “The change in temperature,
shortage of food, and continuing conflict comprising of water weaponization took an
enormous social toll” (Philips 2017).
Hence from the above analysis, it is to conclude that while the notable uncertainties in
the climatic changes in the local scale remain, the current projections from the models of
climate paint a crystal clear projection of the future is holding. It is providing a basis for the
societies and the governments for planning accordingly. Notwithstanding this fact, the highly
predictive potential does not lead to the preparedness. The collaborative-ness of the
unprecedented foresight and risk makes it necessary to consider preparing a case of
responsibility of the national sub-national as well as the intergovernmental offices and
institutions for building climate resilience into the region of Horn, Africa. Failing in meeting
this responsibility can notably strain the political stability within this region and also in the
global context as a whole.

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