Crop production and Risk Mitigation Plan

This document provides a comprehensive plan for crop production and risk mitigation in the context of wheat farming. It includes an executive summary, mission, objectives, target market, soil types, farm location, potential yield, identified production risks, calendar of operation, operational resources, key potential diseases, pests, and weeds, record keeping, and conclusion and recommendation. The document serves as a guide for farmers and stakeholders in the wheat farming industry.

Contents
Executive summary.....................................................................................................................................1
Mission........................................................................................................................................................2
Objectives....................................................................................................................................................2
Target market..........................................................................................................................................2
Soil types and characteristics relevant to the crop..................................................................................2
Farm location...........................................................................................................................................3
Potential Yield..........................................................................................................................................4
Identified wheat production risks............................................................................................................4
 Production risks...........................................................................................................................4
 Market risks.................................................................................................................................4
 Environmental risks.....................................................................................................................4
Calendar of operation..............................................................................................................................4
Operational resources.............................................................................................................................5
Key potential disease, pest and weeds relevant to wheat.......................................................................6
Record keeping........................................................................................................................................7
Conclusion and Recommendation...............................................................................................................7
REFERENCES................................................................................................................................................8

Crop production and Risk Mitigation Plan
Executive summary
In agriculture, risks are inherent and all over, causing a potential serious effect for both farmers
and consumers. The affect supply chains thus causing financial and extensive financial loss.
There are also various agricultural risks which is a major cause of food insecurities creating
hunger and poverty for millions of people across the country. Changes in climate affects the
production schedule by intensifying the frequency of weather related risks and increasing
uncertainty. Efficient agricultural risk management is critical to economic growth increase, food
security improvement, and poverty reduction.
Although these risk levels vary between different farmers, agricultural dependent countries are
the most susceptible to agriculture-related risks. It is therefore necessary to understand the
different types of risks so as to improve on the various risk mitigation strategies such as
irrigation and flood control infrastructure; soil drainage and mulching, installation of early
warning systems, modern information and decision support system as well as use of short-
duration and disease- and stress-resistant cultivars. Grainpro PTY Farm has been used as a case
study for this report.
Mission
To be a world class wheat farm with the business to cultivate organic, non-organic and processed
well packaged wheat for Australian market.
Objectives
i. To produce a Product based wheat to ensure end use quality
ii. To use effective fungicides evaluated and registered for managing wheat rust
iii. To plant new, high yielding, high resistant wheat varieties
iv. To form a reliable work force in terms of packaging and delivery of goods to the market
v. To gain a market share of over 80% among Australian customers and create a high
market niche.
vi. To create a reliable link to the market in a quest to market all range of farm produces to
the market.
2

Target market
The farm aims to produce adequate wheat to be supplied both to the milling industries and
readily available market both locally and internationally. Such as flour millers, whole grain
industries and other relevant factories Australia exports wheat to more than 40 countries
especially the Middle East and the Asian countries. Risk management strategies and value
addition is required to increase production.
Soil types and characteristics relevant to the crop
Wheat farm has a well-drained and fertile loamy soil with a pH of 6.5 because it is highly
affected by acidic soil which is highly associated with high level of aluminum content especially
during the early stage of development. High pH causes other soil nutrients to be unavailable thus
the need for liming (Ayoubi et al., 2009) . Soil high water holding capacity is required for
sufficient soil water storage. These soils must be able to store at least 180 mm water before
planting. The soil should have Wheat requires 2 to 2.5 pounds of nitrogen (N) per bushel (bu)
of grain, or, if grazed, 1 pounds of nitrogen per bushel of grain or at least 3 pounds per acre this
is because poor grain fill leads to low protein content and reduced head thus lowering the yield.
Phosphate fertilizers should be used to improve the soil results (Juhos et al., 2015).
Farm location
Grainpro PTY Farm is located in a winter rainfall area in Dubbo, New South Wales, Australia
state with cool and moist temperature range of 5°C to 25°C suitable for planting, growth and
harvesting of (Triticum aestivum) wheat. The type of wheat planted varies depending on the
amount of wheat yielding, the amount of rainfall, disease resistance and high protein content
(Ayoubi and Sahrawat, 2011) . The annual rainfall is about 600mm but with climate changes
stubble mulching is required for cultivation practices such as zero tillage. If wheat is not
harvested in time it can result to quality deterioration as well as fungal infection thus reduced
yield. The farm is located in the area attached below:
3

Potential Yield
Grainpro PTY Farm Limited recognizes the seasons as a critical tool in the supply forecast of the
wheat production for their customers. It is predicted that production will rises from September
till November as the season with the highest production. During these seasons, the cost of raw
materials is relatively lower due to high rainy season which increase the fodder feeds. During the
seasons of low production i.e. December to July and part of August, the cost of production is
relatively higher due to high labor and cost of raw materials such as seeds and fertilizer.
Identified wheat production risks
 Production risks: these risks are majorly associated with low yield production of wheat
crops. Extreme weather changes for example hail, frost, loo much or too little rainfall and
frequent Catastrophic events like floods and cyclones. Pest and disease outbreak also
affects yields adversely. Human made problems like theft and fraud. They affect the
4

entire supply chain through risk transmission thus lowering yield production (Mokarram
et al., 2016).
 Market risks: these are risks are related to most issues that affect price, availability,
quality, and access to relevant products and services. Prices for inputs and outputs
changes with the relevant change in demand and supply. Other risks includes changes in
exchange rate and interest rate as well as counterparty and default risks. These risks are
directly related to price risks and other risks related to quality and price risks because
quality is affected by availability of affordable inputs delivered and applied
timely(Leelaruban et al., 2012) .
 Environmental risks- These are changes in the various scenarios that businesses takes
place for instance unpredicted changes in government and business regulations. Political
risks, trade restrictions, conflicts, corruption and logistics are the major risks that have led
to the company’s financial loses. This affects productivity, market options and decision
making and eventually lower the yield quality and quantity (Wani et al., 2017).
These are some of the strategies to mitigate the risks above: irrigation and flood control
infrastructure; soil drainage and mulching, installation of early warning systems, modern
information and decision support system as well as use of short-duration and disease- and stress-
resistant cultivars.
Calendar of operation
Wheat is grown in rotation to reduce the spread of diseases like crown rot, improve weed control
and also help in nitrogen fixation into the soil helping improve soil health. The most rotated crop
apart from wheat is non-cereal crops which report improve yields of wheat on the rotated farm.
Crops mostly rotated with wheat is chickpeas and faba beans. According to Wani et al. (2017)
Soil nutrients after the harvest of faba beans has the increased level of nitrogen of more than
100kg N/ ha.
Wheat plant density usually range from 20kg/ha in a low rain season and 80-110kg/ha for a
medium to high rainfall area. The seed rate can be calculated to be certain on the amount of
seeds to be planted to get the correct density, using seed weight, the germination percentage and
5

the appropriate plant density required. Taking an example of 100seeds weighing 4.5gm and has
95% germination percentage and the required density is 170 plants in a meter square.
4.5*(10/95)*170=80.5 this means that the seeds required is 80.5kg per hectare.
According to Scott et al. (2013) Row spacing the commonly adopted distance is 18cm or more to
increase the use of machinery and it also reduce ground-engaging components and increase the
speed of sowing operation. Wide row spacing also help in yield production, good quality and
increased seed size. It is also believed that seeds sown in wide row have less competitive with
weeds for fertilizers. Increasing the row spacing more than 18cm there is a tendency to yield
loss. Irrigation scheduling depend on rainfall after the planting time and the soil moisture.
Crop fertilizer requirement depend on the results after soil test, phosphorus is important in early
wheat growth. If not adequate it need to be supplemented at the sowing time, the rate of
application depend on the number of tones anticipated for each tone requiring 3kg/ha. Nitrogen
is another important nutrient to determine good yield and protein level in grains, can be applied
at sowing time different line from the seeds. And Potassium should be applied as a top dressing
using Colwell K at a range of 33-54mg/kg for sandy soil 44-52mg/kg for sandy loam soil (Gray
et al., 2011). Planting times usually begins in mid-April and end in July, also farmers depend on
good rain fall.
Operational resources
The most used machine in the farm is tractors to plough the land, cultivator equipment, seeder
machine for planting, boom sprayer for pesticide application if necessary, during harvesting we
use combine harvester, chaser bins and grain trucks to carry the harvest (Browne et al., 2011).
Basic safety requirement in the farm, there are a number of hazards associated with grain
farming this include;
 Mechanical hazards- this occurs to workers dealing with machines like tractors, combine
harvester and other machines.
 Biological hazards- from grains and dust in the farm
 Chemical hazard- worker dealing with herbicides, pesticide and fuel are the most exposed
to this hazard.
6

 Radiation from the sun- due to long outdoor working hours
 Stress and fatigue
 Noise pollution- affecting eardrums.
It is the responsibility of both employee and the employer to take safety measures. Employer
should provide a safe working environment, to keep machines and other tool in safe condition,
ensuring good storage of chemicals and proper dressing when handling, provision of adequate
information by conducting training on safety measures and frequent assessment of health and
safety risk of farm workers (Biswas et al., 2010).
The large use of mechanization greatly affect labor requirement which increase the effect of
unemployment situation in the area. The use of human labor is minimal in the farm. Marketing
requirement first is to determine the quality of the harvest by variety and various grain quality
this will affect the market price of wheat. Farmers, traders and processors are allowed to trade in
a free market with prices depending on the forces of supply and demand on the market. The
transportation of wheat from the farm to the silos. Trucks are used to transport from the farm to
either rail station or port for export (An and Ouyang, 2016).
Key potential disease, pest and weeds relevant to wheat.
Some of the major pest and diseases attacking and causing a big loss in majority of our produce
include:
 Yellow leaf spot- this is a fungal disease caused by Pyrenophora tritici-repentis it is evidence by
the yellow leaves starting from the tip of the leave
 Stripe rust it is caused by puccinia striiformis f. sp. It is easily identified in the morning
with yellow stripes on the older leaves.
 Septoria nodorum blotch- this is chocolate colored spots in leaves near the surface then
turn to oval shape
 Crown rot is a soil-born fungul disease found especially in wet, heavy soil
This pest and diseases can be controlled using either of the following methods,
 Resistant cultivars breeding
 Cultural method like crop rotation
 The use of pesticides
7

 The use of herbicides to help control weeds
Record keeping
The farm has a good record keeping which contains accurate and necessary information about
the farm fit into the type of farm framework. It gives the expenditure and earnings for the
appropriate decision making. The example of records to be kept are; Inventory record, record on
equipment like machinery and services, harvesting record, cash flow record and finally salary
and wages (Del Dottore et al., 2018). When doing an analysis using the given records a balance
sheet should be drawn containing the income on one side and expenses on the other if the
balance is positive the farm is making profits and if negative the farm is recording loses.
Conclusion and Recommendation
The study has concluded that Dabbo is among the key resourceful area whereby small-scale
farmers have utilized for the past decades sustainably. Droughts affect many parts of the regions
associated with poor performance of rain fed crops leading to high pressure on the use of various
irrigation types, water storage and improved record keeping systems so as to increase yield and
improve revenue. In this view therefore, the study recommends various options on the use of
land wisely for a sustainable production. Agro- technology activities should be highly
encouraged and put in place to reduce the high cost of wages and is a key to good harvest and
increased production.
8

REFERENCES
An, K. & Ouyang, Y. 2016. Robust Grain Supply Chain Design Considering Post-Harvest Loss
And Harvest Timing Equilibrium. Transportation Research Part E: Logistics And
Transportation Review, 88, 110-128.
Ayoubi, S., Khormali, F. & Sahrawat, K. L. 2009. Relationships Of Barley Biomass And Grain
Yields To Soil Properties Within A Field In The Arid Region: Use Of Factor Analysis.
Acta Agriculturae Scandinavica Section B–Soil And Plant Science, 59, 107-117.
Ayoubi, S. & Sahrawat, K. L. 2011. Comparing Multivariate Regression And Artificial Neural
Network To Predict Barley Production From Soil Characteristics In Northern Iran.
Archives Of Agronomy And Soil Science, 57, 549-565.
Biswas, W. K., Graham, J., Kelly, K. & John, M. B. 2010. Global Warming Contributions From
Wheat, Sheep Meat And Wool Production In Victoria, Australia–A Life Cycle
Assessment. Journal Of Cleaner Production, 18, 1386-1392.
Browne, N. A., Eckard, R. J., Behrendt, R. & Kingwell, R. S. 2011. A Comparative Analysis Of
On-Farm Greenhouse Gas Emissions From Agricultural Enterprises In South Eastern
Australia. Animal Feed Science And Technology, 166, 641-652.
Del Dottore, E., Mazzolai, B. & Marcati, P. 2018. Plant Behaviour: A Mathematical Approach
For Understanding Intra-Plant Communication. Biorxiv, 493999.
Gray, M., Black, J. M., Baharestani, M. M., Bliss, D. Z., Colwell, J. C., Goldberg, M., Kennedy-
Evans, K. L., Logan, S. & Ratliff, C. R. 2011. Moisture-Associated Skin Damage:
Overview And Pathophysiology. Journal Of Wound Ostomy & Continence Nursing, 38,
233-241.
Juhos, K., Szabó, S. & Ladányi, M. 2015. Influence Of Soil Properties On Crop Yield: A
Multivariate Statistical Approach. International Agrophysics, 29, 433-440.
Leelaruban, N., Oduor, P. G., Akyuz, A., Shaik, S. & Padmanabhan, G. 2012. Leveraging A
Spatio-Temporal Drought Severity And Coverage Index With Crop Yield Modelled As A
Stochastic Process. International Journal Of Hydrology Science And Technology, 2, 219-
236.
Mokarram, M., Najafi-Ghiri, M., Negahban, S. & Roshan, G. 2016. Relationship Between
Landform And Soil Salinity In The Surface And Subsurface Soils (Case Study: Southeast
Of Fars Province, Iran). Modeling Earth Systems And Environment, 2, 16.
9

Scott, B., Martin, P. & Riethmuller, G. 2013. Graham Centre Monograph No. 3: Row Spacing Of
Winter Crops In Broad Scale Agriculture In Southern Australia. Eds T Nugent And C
Nicholls. Nsw Department Of Primary Industries, Orange.
Wani, S. P., Chander, G. & Anantha, K. 2017. Enhancing Resource Use Efficiency Through Soil
Management For Improving Livelihoods. Adaptive Soil Management: From Theory To
Practices. Springer.
10