COVID-19 Challenges Case Study 2022

Running head: COVID-19
COVID-19
Name of the Student
Name of the University
Authors note

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COVID-19
Answer 1
The COVID-19 remains the only factor that challenges the health sector and the entire
health of the human being. On 16 March, there were 164,834 cases which were suspected to be
positive while 6470 were the confirmed cases of the disease worldwide. The virus has spread to
146 countries, and sadly, every state has reported at least one example. The virus affects the
human body within 14 days and hence becoming the enemy number one to social health (Alwan
et al., 2020). Further, the mortality rate resulting from the diseases is 1% which is likely to cause
the death of millions of people worldwide. The virus has cause deterioration of the economy in
all countries which have reported positive cases.
Moreover, the disease impacts various countries socially and politically more than other
crimes which have been reported in the past. The precaution taken by NPIs, as a result of this
pandemic has significantly impacted the business activities worldwide. The caution issued
include banning of movement around the world restricts various kind of businesses around the
globe. The flight has been forced to suspect their operation across multiple countries where the
pandemic has been reported. Moreover, the road is empty as most countries aim to control the
spread of the virus. Further, national as well as an international conference which aimed at
discussion of various business strategies have been suspended (Bedford et al., 2020). Moreover,
people across the affected countries have been seen restocking food as well as other essential
commodities to meet their needs as they are in quarantine for an unknown period.
Social distancing remains to be the only way of controlling the spread of the disease. The
law, as well as the higher authorities, have implemented social distancing as they aim to control
the spread of the disease. The education segment suffers due to the outbreak of the virus as

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schools, universities and colleges have been suspended until the situation improves (Feng et al.,
2020). Further, the virus is a big challenge to the resident of various countries affected by this
pandemic. The CDC reports state that people who are over 60 years and suffers from other
chronic diseases are likely to be affected by the virus.
Moreover, the virus also affects the resident of various state even if they are not suffering
from chronic diseases. The persons who show the symptoms resembling those of the patient
infected by the virus are not entertained in public). The inadequacy of testing kits and congestion
in public hospitals causes fears among the resident as the medical staffs may not well attend
them. The outbreak of the virus impacts the normal activities negatively due to the issuance of
various precautionary measures such as quarantine, self-distancing, which significantly lowers
the economy and influences the demand pattern. Further, the import and export of multiple
products have been affected, which will translate to the devaluation of currencies of various
countries (Greenhalgh, Koh and Car 2020). The changes in demand pattern and deterioration of
the economy are contributed by the resident of the affected states, as some may not isolate
themselves from those individuals who test positive. Moreover, the resident should not panic as a
result of the outbreak of the virus as a different pandemic called H1N1 occurs in 1918-1919, and
it was defeated XX. Further, through the development of the non-pharmaceuticals intervention, a
resident of various countries can prevent themselves from the deadly virus.
Answer 2
Suppression and mitigation remain to be the best ways of controlling the spread of the
virus as there is no vaccine for the treatment of COVID-19. The methods of curbing the spread
of disease are not valid as it has some demerits. For instance, millions of people may be infected,

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and health facilities may be overrun, in such situation mitigation policy may not work effectively
(Hanley et al., 2020. Moreover, suppression may not work as it demands the continuous
enforcement of quarantine, self-distancing until a vaccine for the treatment of COVID-19 is
discovered.
Furthermore, if various intervention put in place to control the spread does not contain
the transmission, then, such response should be reviewed. Further, multiple measures introduce
to reduces the spread of the virus, such as quarantine, is associated with various costs. Moreover,
under the suppression, there is no guarantee that after a given period, the initial vaccines will be
successful. Further, a person who is at high risk of conducting the virus may not be prevented by
the mitigation. The outcome of ineffective intervention strategies may be a higher mortality rate.
Moreover, inadequate testing kits, as well as the long time before the tested people, got their
results to contribute to the higher spread of the virus(Heymann and Shindo 2020). Further,
insufficient PPEs for health workers, inadequate health care staff, absences of strict quarantine
measures results in a higher range of the virus.
Answer 3
The risk factor gives an adequate explanation for higher cases in Italy than Germany
(Keeling, Hollingsworth, and Read 2020).
Epidemical Time: The disease spread at a higher rate in Italy as compared to Germany
as Italy is the tourist attraction centre. Moreover, Italy is the largest trade partner of China in
Europe where the disease started and hence the virus spread at a higher rate in Italy than
Germany.

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Age: Depending on the age factor, the number of those affected in Germany is less than
those affected in Italy. The majority of those affected in Germany was below 60 years while 19%
was above 60 years, unlike in Italy where the majority of those affected was above 60 years. The
majority of Germany's population is youths while in Italy are elders who are affected most by the
virus.
Testing: Germany has made a lot of development in matters related to the testing as those
who came in contact with the infected and those who show mild symptoms of the disease were
tested, unlike Italy where testing has not been done. Moreover, Germany is testing about 500000
people every eek where Italy check a few people every week for COVID-19.
Health care system: The health care system in Germany is more developed than in Italy.
Further, in Germany, the testing of persons believed to come in contact with the patients
eliminate the high risk of transmission unlike in Italy where testing is not done and a hence
higher risk of transmission of the virus. The above reason gives adequate explanation to why
there is a high death rate in Italy as compared to Germany.
Answer 4
a) A strategy of suppression
Advantages

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Source: (www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-
fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf, 2020)
If followed all four interventions as highlighted in fig 3, table 4, then it is observed to
have a higher impact on the reduction of the transmission of the disease.

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Source: (www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-
fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf, 2020)
The four interventions highlighted in figure 3 and 4, clearly indicates that there is a
higher influence on the reduction of the transmission of the disease.
Disadvantages
The changes in the intervention translate to the increase in the spread of the virus
resulting in the higher epidemic in the future. This is an indication that if the best response is
identified, then the rate of a range of the virus is reduced whereas a relaxed intervention results
in a higher rate of spread.

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Suppression as a method of decreasing the spread of the disease is not effective as the
countries are not sure on the impact of the disease on the society as well as their roles on the
rebuilding their lands from the adverse effects of COVID-19.
B) A strategy of mitigation
Advantages
Source: (www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-
fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf, 2020)

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Mitigation reduces influences of the outbreak via smoothening the curve, reducing the
most significant occurrence as well as universal casualties. (Figure 1 a and b)
Mitigation emphasizes on the reduction of the death rate, and the mitigation intervention
should remain as long as the epidemic phase lasts. The establishment of such response led to the
rise in the spread of the virus, and when the intervention is raised, the range of disease is
reduced. The introduction timing should be balanced with the disruption scale and probable
phase above which mediation can keep going. In the scenario disused, intercessions can restrict
the spread towards the stretch where little herd immunity is obtained, resulting in like hood that
another signal of infection is observed one-time interventions are hoisted.
Source: (www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-
fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf, 2020)

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Mitigation is advantageous as it reduces congestion in health care facilities as it is
depicted in figure 2. This is achieved through adhering to the quarantine and isolation rules.
The outcome presents the optional, mitigation policy undertaken for smaller period
results in the reduction of mortality rate outbreak by half and rises the demand for health care by
2/3.
Disadvantages
Source: (www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-
fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf, 2020)

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Source: (www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/
Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf, 2020)
According to figure 3 and 4, mitigation is not useful without improvement in the number
of health care units. Further, mitigation is not valuable in the absence of crisis rush capacity
limitation involving the U.K. and U.S. health system surpass several times over.
Conclusion
The most useful intervention strategy currently is epidemic suppression. The suppression
intervention work in a way that focuses on the reduction of infected cases and continues with the
same trend. This suppression intervention in the U.K. necessitates the inclusion of social
distancing among the residents, strict adhering to home-based quarantine as well as clan-based
quarantine of family members. Further, it requires the closure of the school, colleges as well as
universities. The suppression intervention is undertaken continuously until the vaccines are

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identified. For instance, for 18 months. Moreover, South Korea, as well as China, shows that
suppression is achievable over a short period.
Further, they are uncertain whether it can be achieved in the long term as it is associated
with the various cost such as economic and social cost which may not be meet by multiple
countries. The suppression intervention focuses on reducing the number of reproductions. The
NPIs is disadvantageous as it necessitates maintenances until the virus is not eliminated in the
inhabitants or up to a period where the vaccines are discovered. There are high chances that the
vaccines may not be found for a period of between 12-18 months in case of COVID-19. Absence
of maintenance of NPIs for such period may result in the rise of suspected instances along with
the graph. Further, the suppression strategy is useful in the U.K. and China.
The suppression process for G.B. consists of the impact of three different policies option
on the overall deaths observed for a time of 2 years and the demands on the ICU beds. For
instance, home quarantine, social distancing, isolation as well as school and university closure.
The closure of school should be done after a newly diagnosed patient with COVID-19.
Suppression is only achieved by putting in place various measures which may change
over time. Further, as the infected patients reduce, it will be easy to undertake intensive testing
within a given population. Moreover, measures have greatly assisted in the reduction of the death
rate in South Korea and China, among other countries. The installation of apps in phones that
monitors the interaction between various individuals is crucial in the reduction of the
transmission rate of the
virus(www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-
College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf, 2020)

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