Credit Risk Management

This document provides an overview of credit risk management, including types of business risks, risk analysis tools and techniques, financial statement analysis, and credit risk faced by Marks & Spencer. It also discusses credit risk derivatives and their role in managing credit risk.

Credit Risk Management

Contents
INTRODUCTION.......................................................................................................................................4
MAIN BODY..............................................................................................................................................4
1 Introduction of selected organisation....................................................................................................4
2. Different types of business risks and elaborate of credit risk in context of selected company.............5
3. Understand risk analysis and risk evaluation tools and techniques......................................................6
4. Financial statement analysis as a credit analysis and ratio analysis.....................................................8
5. Credit risk arise due the exposure to a different legal and political system........................................11
6 Analyzing the concepts and reasons of financial distress....................................................................13
CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS.......................................................................................14
REFERENCES..........................................................................................................................................15

INTRODUCTION
Risk is the probability of loss associated with the inability of a lender to repay the loan or
fulfill contract agreements. Generally, it includes the possibility of a borrower not receiving the
interest payments due, which leads to an interruption in retained earnings and elevated service
fees. Large amounts cash flows can be written down to provide additional credit risk coverage.
Credit risk management is described as the procedure of examining and defining health risks,
evaluating the degree of risk, and thus choosing steps to handle credit actions in order to reduce
and remove default risk (Accornero and et. al, 2017). Credit risk is the danger that occurs due to
inability by the creditor to conform exclusively to the conditions of the system. This may occur if
the borrower is late in loan payments, refuses to completely pay the loan amount, or refuses to
pay loan when interest and payment rates are due, triggering economic problems and challenges
in corporate banks' business operations. This report has been based on the Marks & Spencer is a
major multinational retailer company that established in UK. This report contains of various
types of business risk that face by the selected organization, understand credit risk analysis, and
related tools & techniques with the help of assessment methods. Moreover, analysis of financial
statement in order to analysis credit analysis tool and calculate various types of ration. Along
with there are mentioned various risk at the time of expansion and at the end provide
recommendations.
MAIN BODY
1 Introduction of selected organisation
Marks and Spencer Group plc (commonly abbreviated as M&S or colloquially Marks and
Sparks) is a leading UK international company based in London, England, specializing in the
selling of clothes, home-made goods and food. It is based in London Exchange and is a
component of the FTSE 250 Index, having recently been in the FTSE 100 Index from its
development through to 2019. M&S had been founded in Leeds in 1884 by Michael Marks and
Thomas Spencer. M&S owns and operates 959 stores in the UK. It includes 615 which sell sole
food items. Currently the business conducts activities in various countries about 1463 locations.
There are working about 80000 employees and the company has been dealing into various

brands such as, Blue harbor, M&S collection, Autograph, Rosie, limited and many others. In the
year 2018 due to radical plan the company closed about 100 stores that impact on the revenues.
In 1973, the business launched into Canada, with forty-seven shops along all Canada from one
juncture. Given numerous attempts to boost its brand, there the company has never been able to
step past its notoriety as an uninspired supermarket, one that mainly provided to elderly people
and British expatriates. Canada's markets were fewer than UK retailers, and did not offer the
same range. Even more attempts were made in the late 1990s to modernize them and increase
customer base, too. The Canadian activities consistently lost cash, however, and the last 38 stores
in Canada were closed in 1999.
2. Different types of business risks and elaborate of credit risk in context of selected company
Business risk is the liability factor(s) a corporation or entity may have that can reduce its
profits or cause it to fail. Everything which challenges the capacity of a firm to accomplish its
objective or attain its revenue objectives is considered business covers. Those risks come from
many different of publications, but again that is not always the director of the committee or a
supervisor to criticize. Rather, the dangers could come from various sources inside the company,
or they may be exogenous to the general economy from restrictions (Agosto, Giudici and Leach,
2019). There are mentioned various types of risk that face by an organisation such as:
Economic risk: Economic risk is related to as the systemic risk of an international-country
transaction depending on market circumstances or negative effects of macroeconomic indicators
such as changed economic or the present administration's fall, and global exchange rate
volatility. Economic risk is the probability that a capital expenditure, generally one for a different
nation, would then impact market stability such as currency rates, government regulations or
good governance.
Operational risk: Operational risk describes the potential hazards faced by an organization
while attempting to perform these day-to-day retail operations within such a particular region or
industry. A form of financial investment, it can contribute from disruptions in operating rules,
individuals and structures as opposed to increasing the cost by external factors, along with
economic or social happenings, or underlying to the whole economy or consumer market,
identified as expected returns.

Financial risk: Financial risk includes how a business provides its financial resources and
handles its overall debt. Economic risk includes why a business can produce adequate sales and
income to pay its current liabilities and generate a profit. There is a problem with economic
burden that a firm cans external debt service payouts. Financial risk is the danger that a
corporation will not be capable of meeting its debt repayment responsibilities. In turn could
imply that the funds stock in the business will be lost by potential buyers. The greater the debt a
firm has, the greater the future financial risk.
Strategic risk: Everybody understands that a good company requires a detailed business plan
which is well liked to think-out. And it's also a normal part of life that circumstances move and
even greatest-laid plans will begin to look quite dated, very easily. That is a strategic threat. It's
the possibility that the approach of the organization would become less successful and as a
consequence company will fail to achieve its objectives. That could be due to significant
alterations, a potentially powerful contender coming into the market, transitions in customer
requirements, peaks in cost of raw materials, and any amount of other major changes
(Ahelegbey, Giudici and Hadji-Misheva, 2019).
Security and fraud risk: Because more clients utilize internet and digital platforms to start
sharing personal information, the possibilities for data theft are indeed higher. News reports
regarding security breaches, financial fraud and transaction theft highlight how companies are
increasing this degree of stress. The vulnerability not only affects confidence and integrity, it
also renders a business potentially responsible for all data violations or theft. Concentrate on
software solutions, fraud prevention techniques and customer satisfaction and employee
schooling on how to recognize any possible pitfalls to accomplish efficient organizational
corporate governance.
Credit risk is the risk of default that may result from any current party inability to agree
to the terms and requirements of any business arrangement, specifically the fail to satisfy the
necessary mortgage repayments owed to an individual. As a fund manager, a lender's fund
management distribution is associated with risks which are specific to its bank loans and
exchange undertakings and the ecosystem it continues to operate inside it. The main objective of
risk managerial project financing is to ensure that it needs to understand, indicators and screens
the numerous risks arising and also that the institution conforms purely to the processes and

regulations set out to resolve these dangers (Alavi, 2016). Credit risk face by the Marks &
Spencer: Moody's has upgraded the credit score for Marks & Spencer from secure to pessimistic
after a tough year for the retail outlet. The pessimistic progress brings after the previous trading
study by M&S that also documented a 2.7% downward trend in garments and residence-like sale
prices and over 13 weeks to 28 December. When a corporation does not request payment until
shipping offering products, it reduces its default risk. Often corporate activities are performed on
credit; but today's developments indicate that reviewing something more than the facts of
statement of financial position are very critical for business success. A credit risk is the
possibility of financial collapse that could occur from a creditor refusing to make the appropriate
payouts. The vulnerability in the first recourse is that of the investor which involves decreased
principal balance, cash flow interruption and additional expense of compilation. The loss can be
full or partial (Yu, Zhou and Chen, 2018).
3. Understand risk analysis and risk evaluation tools and techniques
To better understand about the risk analysis requires to apply risk evaluation tool &
techniques that categorized in two manner such as:
Quantitative analysis: Quantitative data evaluate the scope and depth of an execution
(e.g., amount of participants, percentage of employees who have done the system). Quantitative
evidence obtained during and before an event will show the effectiveness and performance. Its
generalization includes the abilities of statistical method for performance evaluation. To analysis
the risk in Marks & Spencer require to apply various methods of quantitative analysis such as:
Observation: As per the methodology learn various things in regard of staff members.
Mind, however, that the very act of watching will alter behaviors. People typically are becoming
more self-conscious when they feel it is necessary. They may needs to invest in a specialist who
is skilled in performing accurate and independent organizational analyses, together with
preparation and supervision to execute analyses (Camilleri, 2016).
Delphi technique: It is a method of risk idea generation, but the fundamental distinction
between conventional Credit risks strategizing including the use of Delphi Technique would be
that professional advice is utilized through the Delphi Technique to define, assess threats on an

independent and confidential level. Instead each specialist analyses one another's threats, and a
threat registry is created by continuing analysis and agreement among the expertise.
Schedule risk analysis: Schedule Risk Analysis (SRA) is a basic and efficient
methodology for linking risk assessment details to the reference plan to include vulnerability
details on actual project operations to determine the possible influence of ambiguity on the final
period and expense of the venture (Wu, Al-Khateeb, Teng and Cárdenas-Barrón, 2016).
Qualitative analysis: Qualitative analysis utilizes analytical judgment to assess the
importance or expectations of a business that are focused on non - measurable factors such as
managerial experience, market cycles, research & innovation power, and worker rights.
Qualitative research relies on the statistics contained in these records as averages. Nevertheless,
the two approaches are also employed together again to analyze the activities of a business and
determine its value as an incentive for development.
Sensitivity analysis: It is technique of credit risk evaluation to see the way workers see
the business and its managers. Staff turnover rate may imply allegiance or lack of commitment to
the staff members. Subterfuge and rivalry and drain creative resources are encouraged by
excessively bureaucratic headquarters; a lazy, unproductive atmosphere may imply workers are
only occupied with hitting the time. The dream is an innovative, diverse community that draws
best talent. With the help of this too an organisation can analysis the credit activity in the
business (Chen, Xiao and Liu, 2018).
Decision tree analysis: Similar to Event Tree Evaluation however without having a
complete quantitative output, decision tree model is more commonly used to better assess the
appropriate response when there is confusion regarding the results of future incidents or planned
proposals. This is achieved by beginning with the original agreed decision and projecting as a
function of incidents resulting from the earlier ruling, the divergent routes and consequences.
When all paths and results are being described and their corresponding risks measured, a plan of
treatment can be chosen depending on a mixture of the most favorable consequences, similar
things, and the possibility of completion.

Cost risk analysis: It includes a thorough evaluation of the potential risks that impact
value management results, accompanied by an evaluation of the liability, guesstimate precision,
and realize the benefits expected to carry out the investment projects or restructuring process.
Break even analysis: A break-even analysis is a monetary instrument that enables people
evaluates how cost effective their business, or a new products or services, will be at. That is, it is
an economic measurement to determine the products or services that a corporation should
advertise to pay its current liabilities (especially capital expenses).
Therefore, these are all qualitative and quantitative tools that use by the Marks & Spencer
organisation in order to evaluate the credit risk in business (Cole, Giné and Vickery, 2017).
Credit risk derivatives: Credit derivatives are financial instruments which shift credit
risk through one group elsewhere without shifting the corresponding investment portfolio
through one side to the next. That is recognized as credit danger. It decides the credit histories
for the debt rising government bonds by the firms. The investor is marketing this debt to many
other entities requesting investment in government bonds. These purchasers are getting lender
loan repayments. Once consuming a lot these specific financial instruments, the credit risk is
transported to them though the lenders continue to stay on the existing bank's paperbacks.
Humans call those finance cars and trucks risk estimation. A credit derivative is a financial
instrument which enables the stakeholders to control their credit risk. Credit derivative composed
of a private contractual agreement up for negotiation among both 2 people in a lender / borrower
connection. It enables the debt collector to pass on the borrower's default risk event. There are
mentioned various types of risk such as:
 Credit default swaps
 Credit spread forward
 Total return swaps
 Credit default swap options
 Collateralized debt obligations
4. Financial statement analysis as a credit analysis and ratio analysis
The review of the financial report is the method of assessing the existing accounts of a
business for the reasons of decision taking. It is used by different customers to comprehend a

company's core wellbeing, and to generate business performance and organizational valuation.
External members use it as a financial-management reporting device (Wireko and Forson, 2017).
A balance sheet of an organization can use as techniques to collect financial information on all
affecting the company’s actions. Even so, they can be assessed on a results evaluation on past,
historical and prospective.
To judge the ability of a company to pay its debt, banks, bond investors and analysts
carry out credit analyzes on the business. An investor may assess the willingness of a company
to meet its duty utilizing financial measures, cash flow analysis, pattern research and economic
forecasts. Credit analysis is amongst the most popular sources of financial reports, highlighting
the many aspects of debt important for a capitalist society to operate. Sellers exchanging goods
for commitments to charge have to check the ability of such pledges (Colombini, 2018).
Financial institutions that give the financial resources to sellers to support their inventory levels
must also measure the likelihood of filled and timely repayment. In addition, the banks will show
their financial health to many other finance companies who loan to them through obtaining their
loan and bonds licenses. For both such situations, the review of the financial report may have a
major impact on plans to enter or not make loans. Nevertheless, as relevant as financial reports
are to credit risk management, the analyst has to keep in mind that certain techniques do play a
part. Financial reports tell a lot about both the capacity of a debtor to repay loans but reveal next
to nothing about the incredibly significant will to pay back.
Net profit margin ratio: The net profit margin is proportional to how much net gain or benefit
as a number of totals is produced. The profit margin for a business over a specific period is the
percentage of percentage of incomes. Usually the net profit margin is measured as a percentage
but may also be interpreted in matrix value. The net profit margin shows how much more of a
dollar a business pays highest net operating profit possible (Dassios and Zhao, 2017).
Net profit
margin ratio
Net profit / net
sales *100
Net profit 30000 45000
Net sales 650000 700000
Net profit ratio 4.62 6.43

Debt to equity ratio: The debt-to - equity (D / E ) ratio is computed by dividing the
number obligations of a corporation by its dividends to the investor. These statistics are available
mostly on financial reports of a balance sheet of a company. The ratio is used to assess economic
power for a corporation. A significant measurement used in investment banking is the D / E
ratio.
Debt ratio
Total liabilities /
Total Assets
Total liabilities 165000 155000
Total Assets 600000 640000
Debt ratio 0.28 0.24
Interest coverage ratio: The interest coverage ratio is a debt ratio and productivity ratio
used only to assess how quickly the unpaid debt can indeed be covered by a corporation. The
current liabilities ratio can be determined by dividing profits of a business until interest and taxes
(EBIT) by loan repayments owed by the firm during the same span within the same specified
term (Fernandes and Artes, 2016).
Interest
coverage
ratio Interest / EBIT
Interest 625000 725000
EBIT 90000 90000
Debt ratio 6.94 7.50
Current ratio: The current ratio is a financial ratio, which calculates the willingness of a
business to meet quick-term or due liabilities inside one period. It shows creditors and
shareholders’ how a business will optimize its existing balance sheet cash to pay its gross
obligations as well as other accounts payable (Tominac, 2018).

Current ratio
Current assets /
current
liabilities
Current assets 155000 165000
Current liabilities 80000 75000
Current ratio 1.94 2.20
5. Credit risk arise due the exposure to a different legal and political system
The marks & Spencer organisation expand their business in other country so that time
they are facing many credit risk due to change political and legal system. Every country have
own system that must follow by the new entrance company. Due to the aid of tech companies,
information can now be processed easily and the credit cost structure of consumers measured. If
an entrepreneur assesses to purchase a bond, he will evaluate the cash's credit history prior to
actually making the investment (Iftikhar, 2016). If the rank is close to zero, therefore the creditor
is deemed to have a higher credit risk as well as, whether it has a good rating, it is considered an
acceptable investor. There are mentioned various types of risk that face by the company such as:
Institutional risk: Institutional risk is the risk of disintegration of the legal framework or
the institution overseeing the service agreement between the borrower and the debt collector. A
borrower who donated millions to a venture capitalist functioning in a political instability
country, for example, requires considering the fact that a place in the current dictatorship could
dramatically maximize the likelihood of switch and the percentage of failure (Tehulu, 2016).
Concentration risk: Concentration risk, also known as market risk, is the danger of
over-exposure to any one business or field. For instance, a lender who borrowed the money to
producers of batteries, tire makers and oil firms is highly prone to disruptions impacting the
manufacturing sector. This is the form of credit risk caused by exposure of any single person or a
group that has the capacity to create massive losses to endanger a bank's main operational
activities. It could even emerge in dividing the process in the singular production of discrete
name density. Concentration risk is the form of danger that results from good access to either
person or community when any unfortunate incident would have the possibility to inflict massive

losses on a bank's primary activities. The risk of intensity is usually characterized by significant
exposure to a particular business or corporation or personal (Lassoued, 2018).
Credit default risk: The probability of failure resulting from the debtor's doubtful
redemption of the balance in whole or whether the borrower is beyond upwards of 90 days is the
due date of interest settlement, credit default probability is established. Credit default risk effects
all consumed such as loan payments, derivative instruments or corporate bonds consumer credit.
Banks often review the credit default danger before they accept any credit cards or secured loans.
There are some risks that face by the multinational companies when they are operating
their business at big level such as:
Country risk: The danger emerging from a nation entity as it holds overtime default
transactions for foreign exchange or its sovereign-risk duty. State risk is correlated primarily
with general economic results, and is often strongly linked to the nation's democratic
sustainability. Unexpected destabilization, that also typically occurs even during referendums,
results in increased risk for the nation. Country risk is the type of risk been shown whenever a
nation country stops nighttime payouts for foreign exchange bonds resulting in switch. Country
risk is influenced significantly by the economic and financial sector of a country whereas a
nation's democratic stabilization also plays an important role. Country risk is main decision risk,
too. This risk face by the multinational company because of every organisation have own rules
and regulation and different political system (Liao and et. al, 2017).
Industry risk: Market risk applies to the risks to a single product that emerge not from
complications per se with the business, but from much more wide-ranging concerns covering the
global market to which the employee operates. This is an example showing the risk to business
sector. Supply chain members with much more inconsistent authority or production lines tend to
define a greater overall risk for the business sector than those that the power dynamic is in the
business's favor. Threats are able to compete. Especially dangerous are broad portions of the
market affected by extreme currency value rivalry.
Regulatory framework of companies in international context

A regulatory structure may have various interpretations, but it usually applies to tax details,
the requisite legislation and other essential information, such as applicable guidelines,
compliance and regulatory authorities (Seyedeh and Jalilian, 2017). For a variety of reasons, a
legal framework for preparing the financial statements is necessary:
 To insure that all the knowledge given in the financial environment in question is both
equivalent and accurate. This arena is increasingly global despite the growing of
transnational companies and capital markets. To insure that the income reporting users'
expectations are fulfilled with at best a range of essential detail.
 Increasing consumer interest in income statement
 To control client and management conduct against their creditors.
6 Analyzing the concepts and reasons of financial distress
Financial distress is a situation under which a corporation or person seems unable to
produce profit or sales because will be unable to fulfill its debt payments or could not meet them.
This is usually due to the increased operating expenses, illiquid or financial downturn-sensitive
earnings. If a person or company encounters a length of time when they are unable to pay their
debts as well as other commitments by their delivery date, then economic difficulties is likely to
occur. Many of such expenditures can include (costly) borrowing, project investment costs, and
non-productive workers. Workers in a troubled company typically have reduced productivity and
greater tension induced by the heightened possibility of failure that could drive them out of work.
To order to prevent these scenarios, tight collaboration between management, credit officers and
other shareholders is essential that companies should ensure. Furthermore, ensuring that the
company seems to have enough money available to cover the day-to-day costs makes an
organization waste away from these circumstances. Many businesses often employ consultants to
streamline budget expenditure there is ample cash in the program. There are defined various
reasons of financial distress such as:
Cash flows: Cash flow is the pace over which the cash is arriving, and leaving the
company. A company may earn a profit but that can accumulate most of its earnings. The
organization does not have cash available to manage day and-to-day activities in that situation.
But, it still required spending the quarterly or cost - effective care (Soedarmono, Sitorus and
Tarazi, 2017). Consequently, if a business failed to correctly handle its credit process, the

disparity among cash outflows (having to pay expenditures) may boost, thus managing the
organization clean.
Cumulative losses: Failures on various fronts as well as constant failures are a
significant factor that is concerned about the financial distress of the corporation. Corporations in
one specific company can often be seen to become more vulnerable to significant distress over a
given moment. This may be due to a recession in the business sector related to current
regulations, the sector being really wealth costly, slow revenue, greater capital expenditure and
so on.
High expenses and low sales: It is obvious because if a corporation were weak in
revenue and were unwilling to curb its costs, that would result in a cash shortage. Due to
different problems, such as future. In addition, temporary requests, a sluggish economy and so
on, purchases can fall. Many businesses, though, can't slash their fixed and operational expenses.
This generates a large-expense and reduced-sales scenario. If such a scenario emerges,
businesses might start actively cutting back on promotions and product positioning. In some
extreme cases, they also might begin employing more people to save all the money and prevent
the financial distress scenario (Ssekiziyivu, Mwesigwa, Joseph and Nkote Nabeta, 2017).
Macro trends and regulator headwinds: Any adjustment in tax policy, customs duty or
new laws may impact the working capital and liquidity accessible to a corporation. This could
lead to an increased income statement to meet the global responsibilities, leading to the little
revenue in hand. Likewise, there are cases where businesses are in a court dispute with yet
another business and are required to pay tremendous remuneration or penalties.
Insufficient accounting practices: This is also seen that undertakings with no financial liabilities
encounter investment risk circumstances. Appropriate records management may help recognize
patterns and discrepancies within a company. So, this helps management in taking appropriate
action to fix problems and prevent financial hardship. In fact, a organization can make daily
budgets, too. This makes the business manage ahead, and controls every part of the economy.

CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS
As per the above report it has been concluded that when a business conduct various
activities that time face various risk that has been categorized into different manner. There are
identified various business risk such as financial risk, economic, operational and many others.
Mainly credit risk is affected to business so for this require applying effective tools & techniques
in appropriate manner. It s recommended that apply the risk management in order to overcome
these risks and apply effective tools and techniques in systematic manner. Along with it is
required that a business face the risk when expand at international level so for this focus on these
risk and apply effective formula to address these issues effectively.

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