Brexit's Impact on the UK Economy

This assignment delves into the wide-ranging consequences of Brexit on the United Kingdom's economy. It requires analysis of Brexit's effects on various sectors, including trade, immigration, financial services, and regulations. Students are expected to evaluate the impact of Brexit on key economic indicators such as GDP, employment, and investment. The assignment encourages critical thinking about the long-term implications of Brexit for the UK's economic future.

Running head: PROJECT DISSERTATION
The consequences of BREXIT for UK trade and living standards: Project Dissertation
Name of the Student
Name of the University
Author’s Note

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Acknowledgement
Professional research on this topic is one of the most identifiable and enriching experience off
my life ever. I think after successful completion of this research my knowledge base and research
skill will automatically enhance a lot. During the research study, I have obtained sufficient
knowledge about the consequences of BREXIT considering the standard living trade of UK. In
order to gather information for conducting this research my supervisors helped me a lot. I would
like to thank my co workers and supervisor for supporting me throughout while collecting and
analyzing the key research findings. Not only this but also I would like to thank my friends
because they also helped me lot for gathering secondary data in terms of journals and articles.
Moreover I would also like to thank the other professionals who helped me a lot while
conducting survey in the retails industries. I have got inspiration and support as well from these
above mentioned people for helping e throughout the research study.
Thanks and regards
Yours Sincerely,

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Executive summary
The European Union is considered as the largest trade partner of the UK. Approximately a half
of the UK’s trade is with the European Union. The membership of EU minimizes costs in trade
between the UK as well as the EU. Hence, Leaving the EU would make lower trade between the
UK as well as EU as there is higher tariff as well as non-tariff barriers to trade. Moreover, the
UK would gain advantages less from future market integration within the organization. This
paper is focused on both the positive and negative impact of BREXIT over the trade and the
living standards of United Kingdom. It has been found that the referendum of United Kingdom is
able to shape the relation of the country along with one of the largest European Union (EU). In
order to conduct the research work a vast investigation has been done while choosing the most
suitable research methodologies in terms of research philosophy, approaches, data techniques,
data collection and ethical consideration also. The top destination of export and origin of imports
are measured with the help of statistical information. The standards of both United Kingdom and
European Union will help to shape the familiar guidelines principles to make sure that all the
legal order is accordingly followed. In order to conduct the research work, the plan changes in
United Kingdom are also illustrated. For this research work both the primary and secondary data
are gathered and all current secondary information are considered to demonstrate the research
resultants.

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Table of Contents
1. Chapter One: Introduction...........................................................................................................5
1.1 Introduction of the research topic..........................................................................................5
1.1 Background of the research...................................................................................................5
1.2 Research Aim.........................................................................................................................6
1.3 Research Objectives...............................................................................................................7
1.4 Research Questions................................................................................................................7
1.5 Rationale of the Study...........................................................................................................8
1.6 Structure of the Study............................................................................................................8
1.7 Summary................................................................................................................................9
2. Chapter Two: Literature Review...............................................................................................10
3. Chapter Three: Research Methodology.....................................................................................21
3.1 Introduction..........................................................................................................................21
3.2 Method Outline....................................................................................................................21
3.3 Research Onion....................................................................................................................21
3.4 Research Philosophy............................................................................................................22
3.4.1 Justification for Selection of chosen philosophy..........................................................24
3.5 Research Approach..............................................................................................................24
3.5.1 Justification for Selection of chosen approach.............................................................25
3.6 Research Design..................................................................................................................25
3.6.1 Justification for Selection of chosen design.................................................................27
3.7 Data Collection Process.......................................................................................................27
3.7.1 Data Sources: Primary and Secondary.........................................................................27
3.7.2 Data Techniques: Qualitative and Quantitative............................................................28
3.8 Ethical Considerations.........................................................................................................29

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3.9 Research Limitations...........................................................................................................30
3.10 Time Horizon.....................................................................................................................31
3.11 Summary............................................................................................................................32
4. Chapter Four: Analysis and Discussion.....................................................................................33
4.1 Introduction..........................................................................................................................33
4.2 Major Consequences of BREXIT in UK Trade and Living Standards: Findings and
Implications...............................................................................................................................34
4.2.1 Free Internal Market.....................................................................................................34
4.2.2 Affected countries such as Belgium, Netherlands, and Germany................................34
4.2.3 Future UK trade flow....................................................................................................38
4.3 Estimation of BREXIT Consequences in UK Trade and Living Standards: Findings and
Implications...............................................................................................................................39
4.3.1 Increment of Trade Cost...............................................................................................39
4.3.2 Influence on Transfer Pricing.......................................................................................41
4.3.3 Reconsideration of Locations for Supply Chain and Value Chain...............................42
4.3.4 Future UK Trade Flow..................................................................................................43
4.4 Effect of BREXIT on Migration, Foreign Investment and Regulation...............................44
4.4.1 Financial analysis..........................................................................................................47
4.4.2 EU Membership impact on FDI...................................................................................49
4.4.3 Changes in FDI for impacting on UK incomes............................................................50
4.5 Analysis Summary...............................................................................................................51
5. Chapter Five...............................................................................................................................53
5.1 Conclusion...........................................................................................................................53
5.2 Recommendations................................................................................................................57
References......................................................................................................................................59

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1. Chapter One: Introduction
1.1 Introduction of the research topic
The study aims to state the impacts of BREXIT over Trade and living standards in UK.
Outcome obtained from EU (European Union) membership in UK’s referendum has potential for
shaping up country’s relationship along with largest trading partners in EU membership.
Membership of EU is likely to reduce the cost for trading between UK and rest of Europe
(Dhingra et al. 2016). In obvious way, between EU members, the ‘customs union’ exists and this
means that multiple tariff barriers are removed within EU. The removal of tariff barriers allows
free trading of goods and services (Wadsworth et al. 2016). However, in equally important way,
the reduction of trading cost is identified as lessening non-tariff value barriers that resulted into
EU’s continue efforts for creating independent and single market in Europe.
1.1 Background of the research
As per UK background, the non-tariff barriers incorporate wider range of measures for
increasing cost for trading such as threats of anti-dumping, checking rule of origin, border
controlling, and the differences among the cross countries over various regulations for the
standard of products and their safety as well. The trade barriers reductions can increase the
trading value between EU and UK with these aspects. Before, in 1973, UK is a part of the
European Economic Community, value-basis one-third of UK trading was connected with EEC
(Kierzenkowski et al. 2016). In 2014, other 27 EU trading members include 45% exporting from
UK and 53% exporting from UK is considered under other countries’ imports. Exports from EU
includes 13% of national income and higher trading values can provide benefits to UK customers
throughout lower price ranges with accessing better goods and services. To some extent, the UK

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workers and business entrepreneurs benefit upon from new export opportunities for leading to
high value sales and profits in businesses.
The export opportunities allow UK for specializing over industries so that it can acquire
competitive advantage. Along with the sales and service channels, the trade raising outputs
increases income and improves living standards of UK (Dhingra et al. 2016). The standards
provide effects over trading and this is understood over several other countries. In recent
decades, the trade studies revealed that there are bigger effects of BREXIT in UK living
standards and trading value.
1.2 Research Aim
This particular study has broad aim for stating impacts of BREXIT over Trade and living
standards in UK. To achieve proper implications and outcomes, the consequences of BREXIT
will be estimated considering two scenarios such as optimistic and pessimistic over the trade.
This scenario consideration is completely based on secondary findings and study related
outcomes. Furthermore, the dissertation aims to provide secondary study analysis and findings
about future trade agreements that are related with UK living standards. This findings should be
able to provide alternative trading procedures that is related to UK trade and living standard. The
major impacts on migration, foreign investments, and regulation will be discussed in this study to
depict BREXIT impacts over global economy.
Based on the background, the primary implication is stated as higher productivity and
innovation can have major impact on other routes. The broad question is stated to be: how
BREXIT can cast its impact on trading in UK and to find out what impacts BREXIT have on UK
incomes? This dissertation is based on secondary study and several studies reveal that BREXIT

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has impact on UK living standards and this study aims to estimate the degree of influence that
BREXIT cast upon UK living standards.
1.3 Research Objectives
Depending on the stated aim of research topic, the research determines specific objectives
and relevant research questions in later sections. Primary research objectives are included as
following:
1. To identify the major impacts of BREXIT over Trade and living standards in UK
over global economy aspect
2. To identify appropriate ways for determining the impact scoring for BREXIT
across trade and living standards in UK
3. To identify effects of BREXIT on tax regulations, foreign investments and
migration
Identified objectives from the study can provide detailed outline over the dissertation.
The objectives can formulate specific research questions so that study can achieve a proper
format over the study.
1.4 Research Questions
The set of designed research questions for this specific research topic are as follows:
a) What are the major impacts of BREXIT over Trade and living standards in UK
over global economy aspect?
b) How could the appropriate ways be determined the impact scoring for BREXIT
across trade and living standards in UK?

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c) How BREXIT cast effect on migration, foreign investment and regulation?
1.5 Rationale of the Study
Rationale of the study states the study motivation in which the research will be completed
in order to reach mentioned research objectives. The researchers have presented range of
secondary study forecasting some estimation methods can be used as alternative along with
different assumptions on relationship between UK and EU. The researchers follow narrow and
static trading consequences of BREXIT besides considering particular ways through which
BREXIT can put influence on UK economy along with considering migration and investment
(Crafts 2016). As it is quite critical to assess the economic future of UK and BREXIT
consequences as economic future of UK may bring several uncertainties in business. The
researchers have studied BREXIT consequences with reducing trade along with lowering UK
living standards. More prominently, for per capita the frequently falling income can result to
much low trade even more than the offsets over different potential saving on UK. The saving can
obtain reduction in fiscal contributions for EU budget so that baseline estimate can imply
accounting over fiscal savings (Ebell and Warren 2016). Effect of BREXIT can be equivalent to
fall in UK income between 1.3% to 2.6% with declining over average annual household income
between £850 and £1,700 per year.
1.6 Structure of the Study
The research structure will be segmented under five chapters as Introduction, Literature
Review, Research Methodology, Analysis, and Conclusion. The introduction chapter will
determine aims, formulated objectives and questions, and state the research rationale. The
introduction section is relevant for demonstrating background of the topic and detailed findings

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about agenda. Rationale of the study provides appropriate way to realize how the study should be
completed within stipulated timeline.
The literature review section will present several secondary study outcomes regarding the
topic to show findings related with BREXIT consequences in UK Trade and living standards.
The research methodology chapter will present the overall methodology comprising of approach,
design, format, and techniques. Research methodology section is essential for segmenting the
activities under timeline basis so that entire research can be completed within time. Furthermore,
the analysis chapter will provide analytical outcomes and implications. Analysis of collected data
will provide suitable description. The analysis will be secondary as the study is based on cross-
sectional aspect of agenda. The conclusion section will align the findings with objectives to
demonstrate them and will present the future scope of the study. The final chapter deals with
findings to show how the study reached the aims with meeting the research questions providing
implications as well.
1.7 Summary
Based on the introduction chapter, it can be concluded that primarily, the study aims to
identify influences of BREXIT over UK Trade and living standards. As per findings in
background section, the reductions in trade barriers can increase the trading value between UK
and EU with these aspects. In recent decades, the trade studies revealed that there are bigger
effects of BREXIT in UK living standards and trading value. However, as per structure of the
study, this dissertation is based on secondary study. The researchers have studied BREXIT
consequences with reducing trade along with lowering UK living standards.

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2. Chapter Two: Literature Review
For performing estimation of BREXIT effects over UK trade and living standards, the
researchers have used modern way of quantitative trade model over global economy.
Quantitative trade model is relevant for accommodating the channels throughout trade effects so
that this trade can influence customers, firms and workers (Dhingra et al. 2017). The trade model
provides mapping over trade information to UK welfare providing numbers in which real
incomes can be changed to various policies of trades. Some easily available information is
considered for trade volunteers and for removing potential trade barriers (Ottaviano et al. 2014).
The trade model utilizes most recent data collected from WIOD for dividing world economy
under 35 major sectors along with 31 regions. The sector wise segmentation allows transitional
inputs and ultimate outputs both from the good and service. Moreover, this model considers the
effect of BREXIT over the trade of UK with EU relationship and trade of UK corresponding rest
of the world data (Dhingra and Sampson 2016). For forecasting the consequences of BREXIT in
UK aside from EU relationship, the researcher should consider some assumptions so that the
trade change can be shown with BREXIT impacts.
The meaning of Brexit for USA
It is referred as the decision of the UK and known as the abbreviation of British Exit. The
vote results the defined expectations as well as roiled global markets that causes British pound
falling it to the level against the dollar in 30 years. The prime minister called the referendum as
well as campaigned for Britain in order to remain in the EU.
History of the UK economy

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The economic history of the UK deals with the economic history of the country. The
nation is becoming one of the most prosperous economic regions in Europe. It led the industrial
evolution as well as dominated the world economy during 19th century. It was one of the major
innovators in machinery like system engines. On the other hand, the economic output per head of
the population has rose by 500%. It generates an important rise in the living standards. On the
other hand, it produces relative economic decline as other countries like the USA caught up.
The labor government of the UK has enacted a political program rooted in collectivism
that includes nationalism of the industries as well as state direction of the economy. On the other
hand, the concept of nationalization of the coalmines is accepted by principles. The major
economic priority of the post-was required to raise exports. The required extension of rationing
and balancing the dollar deficit are required to requisitioned for the export markets.
PESTEL analysis of UK
Political factors: The UK is a constitutional monarchy, which runs under the process of
influencing parliamentary system. The UK industry is a fair and stable country with several
opportunities in order to get the operating within as well as country as a whole. The government
of the country is proactive and politically stable. It splits into national as well as local
administrations. However, there is a strong economic position.
Economic factors: The economic position is related to different countries. It has a high
GDP, diverse economy. However, the issues are helpful to look after the economic factors. The
large population allows large public as well as private sectors. It increases foreign direct
investment.

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Social factors: The factors are significant in the analysis. In addition, there is any
exception to the particular case of the UK. In addition, several public services, densely populated
with more than 64.1 million inhabitants are included in the social factors. However, there is high
and increasing dependency ratio.
Technological factors: There are quality innovation skills, expertise in IT and science as
well as effective laws with regard to the intellectual properly. However, slow technological
development in the country seems to be proper in hand with regard to future.
The fact is unknown that how exactly UK has positive relation with EU and that would
be changed with following BREXIT consequences. Lack of clarity exists on BREXIT
consequences for UK trade costs between UK and EU relationship (Mulabdic, Osnago and Ruta
2017). To overcome this particular difficulty and issue, the researchers have analyzed two
different scenarios such as optimistic and pessimistic. The optimistic scenario considers a
consequence that enhances the trade cost exists between United Kingdom and European Union
in small variance and negative scenario considers bigger raise in trade costs (Busch and Matthes
2016). Optimistic scenario in discussion considers a major assumption in post-BREXIT world
with UK trade relationship between EU and UK. Being the members of a European Economic
area, a trade relationship exists for Norway. Free trading agreements are available for EU and
this free trading agreement considers no tariff over trading between Norway and EU (Baker et al.
2016). Norway is referred to as a significant member in the European single market where it
undertakes legal policies and regulations for designing to reduce the non-tariff barriers of single
market. Though, from the custom union of UE, Norway is not defined as a significant member.
Thus, Norway faces huge non-tariff barriers in their customs (Gudgin et al. 2016). These barriers

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are not applicable for the members of EU in form of the originals rule requirements and other
activities those are anti-dumping.
The researchers have identified that Norway’s productivity growth is affected from fully
participation from EU market integration programs. Moreover, in the pessimistic scenario of
secondary analysis, the researcher have assumed that UK is not considered to be successful for
negotiating to new trading agreement to EU and hence, the trading between UK and EU is
followed with BREXIT (Springford and Whyte 2014). The trading is governed with World
Trade Organization (WTO) rules of origin; the information implies that there exists bigger
increase in trading cost rather than considering tariff costs within the optimistic scenario as one
of the most superior nation (MFN) tariffs. According to the UK-EU trade agreement these are
compulsory to consider. As WTO completed lesser development to reduce the non-tariff barriers
over EU (Sampson et al. 2016). Increment in trading cost between UK and EU that follows
BREXIT is divided under three sections such as:
1) High tariff values in importing goods;
2) From the different trading regulations, border controls and other aspects high non-
tariff barriers are arise
3) In the future steps of business with the EU, UK may not participate. In the non
tariff barriers also EU taking better integration and reduction
According to the optimistic scenario, the researchers assumed that EU and UK can
continue free trade agreement so that BREXIT cannot be leading to change in tariff barriers
(Emmerson, Johnson and Mitchell 2016). Again, in pessimistic scenario, the trade is governed
from WTO rule origin; the researchers have realized that the MFN tariffs are completely

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obligatory from the UK-EU trading products. After considering the No-tariff barriers all the
positive scenario reflects that, the trade of UK-EU is to be subjected to one quarter for reduction
of non-tariff barriers (Hatzigeorgiou and Lodefalk 2016). The barriers are considered in trading
between United States and EU. Again, in pessimistic scenario, it is viewed that researchers have
assumed bigger increment in three quarters of reduction of non-tariff barriers (Dhingra et al.
2016; Hunt and Wheeler 2016). Finally, the trade cost between countries within European Union
(EU) can decline in approximate 40% much fast than the trading cost among the OECD
countries. Over the BREXIT events, the rate of future reduction will unable to get benefit from
UK and from intra-EU trade costs and as per positive environment, the researchers assumed that
within ten years, intra-EU trade cost could fall to 20% much fast than other countries in global
aspect (Sampson et al. 2016; Swinbank 2016). Again, in pessimistic scenario, the researcher
assumed that intra-EU trade cost could continue to fall up to 40% much fast than other countries
in global aspect. This outcome implies that over optimistic, it can be realized that non-tariff
barriers within EU can fall to 5.7% over next decade (Armstrong and Portes 2016). On the
contrary, pessimistic case implies that the non-tariff barriers within the EU could fall up to
12.8%; this estimation accounted fiscal the total rate of transfer between United Kingdom and
European Union.
As the other members of EU, the budgets are contributed UK members in significant
amount, total fiscal contributions of UK and EU budget are determined at approximately 0.53%
of net national income. Particular profit of BREXIT is considered for UK is that it can reduce
contribution to EU budget (Bruno et al. 2016). However, BREXIT is not necessary significant
for UK to bring no such contribution to EU budget; in arrival, corresponding to the access of the
single market, the members of EEA in Norway could make significant payment for the EU

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budget. Considering per capital base, Norway contribute financially to EU at a rate of 83% as
high as UK’s contribution (McMahon 2016; Chadha 2016). Therefore, it is viewed that
optimistic case addresses to assume the contribution of UK for the EU budget declining by 17%
or failing as a national income by 0.09%.
Moreover, the researchers have focused on the fact collection over UK trade, it is found
that fall in trade affects the countries. Considering both the optimistic and pessimistic scenarios,
the outcomes and findings states that the distribution in income changes over per capita across
the countries (Busch and Matthes 2016). All the EU members are inferior to this findings; large
proportional loss are facing by Ireland from BREXIT along with Netherlands and Belgium. Both
of these countries are losing income are mostly trading partners with UK and certain countries
outside EU like Russia and Turkey can obtain as unfocused to -0.12% to -0.29% over GDP. The
values are offset for 0.01% and 0.02% over gaining non European Union based countries (Portes
2016). The outcomes from the percentages, shows in global aspect, the world’s GDP value is
bigger than UK. Therefore, whenever UK lose £26 billion and £65 billion, other countries in rest
of the European Union (EU) countries lose £12 billion and £28 billion as inferior (Lea 2016).
The BREXIT shock is considered as half as big for EU budget along with UK income
consideration.
An alternative situation arises for Switzerland, as it is not under EEA however; it has
several bilateral agreements with EU. The bilateral agreement gives access to solitary market to
Switzerland (Dhingra and Sampson 2016). Besides Norway, Switzerland adopted all available
regulations for covering the parts of single market with participating with allowing free
payments and moving labor. From lower fiscal transfer, the benefits to EU are obtained for
approximately 40% of contribution from UK, over per basis of capita (Coyle 2016). On the

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contrary, the agreement does not contain free trading services for EU considering disadvantages
in UK economy; and UK economy has competitive advantage in services (Cumming and Zahra
2016). The researchers have simulated the effects of BREXIT, in Switzerland. This is an
alternative positive scenario whose results are found as comparable to Norway. Loss of income
of 1.3% is quite similar for Switzerland as well. However, fiscal transfers are much low in case
of Norway; there are more offset with higher cost of trade in services (Oliver 2016; Bourne
2016). Along with BREXIT, UK will not be restricted with common external tariff on EU, on
importing. For analyzing consequences of BREXIT and unilateral policy, the researchers have
considered the optimistic and pessimistic scenario for including additional assumptions from UK
with removing all tariff costs from importing goods.
Based in context with time, business can grow and anticipate innovative trade regime(s)
for placing under 2019 and 2029 rime period. United Kingdom is place for triggering around 50
Article and before the March 2017 union can be exited not before than end of March 2019 (Lea
2017; Knight 2017; Kee and Nicita 2017). Based on this dates, trading between European Union
and United Kingdom can be subjected as the interim regime (for instances depending on EEA
regulations) or trading for reverting backward to the rule of WTO. It reverts to WTO rules can be
fallen back for options within no comprehensive new deal can be reached. Prior experience from
related studies shown multilateral FTAs can consider five to ten years of negotiation period for
rational outcomes from national, regional, and from government (Burke 2016). This is
improbable, that comprehensively fresh agreement will set on particular day that, UK can exit
the European Union. It is more likely that some types of temporary regime can exist for two
party’s negotiation along with future terms (Oliver 2016; Harvey and Hubbard 2016). Another

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concluding deal can be expected for earliest in 2024 considering final duration up to 2029; so
that both parties can agree over and provide rating to deal procedures at national level.
BREXIT can influence over trade-based fiscal regulations over EU countries. Companies
can transport products as well as services towards or even from the facilities over the different
countries of EU for paying the taxes for other countries (Dhingra, Ottaviano and Sampson 2017;
Bruno et al. 2016). For corrections over inter-company transaction, the products can be put under
double-tax category over different other tax authorities. However, to some extent, the companies
are currently avoiding the double taxing through EU to arbitration convention (Sampson 2017).
Once, UK left EU; the UK would not be considered as a direct party of EU legislation. This can
be asked that whether BREXIT can influence over the arbitration of EU and the convention so
that it can be treaty for concluding with Member States (Dhingra et al. 2016). This convention is
not considered in dispatch of EU and according to the principle, the revision for the convention
can be asked for contracting Member States. Question is dealt with the part of negotiations
BREXIT, for the subsequent views and willing nature of the Member States for practice
resolving double-tax throughout the arbitration. These parties can stay grateful for going under
convention.
For supply chain becoming more important towards competitive nature, the supply chains
are considered as under global aspect for companies (Oliver 2014). The globalized supply chain
management can decrease cost of sourcing, production, and delivery. Additional to these
outcomes, the companies are aiming for getting high-level services as per customer expectations
relevant to quality and speed of delivery increment (Bouoiyour and Selmi 2016). Moreover, as
per outcomes and study of the implications of Global Council, the higher ratio of gross trading
related with value-added services. UK’s trading is connected over global supply chain values.

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Among all value-added supply chain management, 41% of them are in exports and that coming
to EU and rest 12% from US (Mendez-Parra, Papadavid and te Velde 2016). The importance of
UK within the international supply chain has been emphasized after considering all other sectors.
Moreover, both the financial and the professional services of UK industries, performs export in
the mining, chemical products, transport system, telecom, retail and wholesale sectors as well
(Steinberg 2017). These professional service and financial service providers of UK industries are
essential to international supply chain management.
Once, UK left European Union, currently global supply chain for EU market should be
redesigned. Uncertain situations from trade policies and influence on trade between EU and UK
casts significant impact on investments for supply chain management footprint (Jafari and Britz
2017). Moreover, several companies exist for creating strategic financial investment for takng
decisions about warehousing, factories, logistics abilities; could consider a location as UK. For
pending uncertainty in BREXIT vote, the decisions might be postponed (Lea 2016). The
decisions that could not be postponed should be considered as under bias for favor over non-UK
based locations.
For the supply chain management, the organizations should calibrate to costing levels
along with services leveling over nodes in supply chain management. In case transaction cost for
trading becomes too high, the companies should reconsider current or existing locations in UK
(Arnorsson and Zoega 2016). The value chain transformation should not only be considered as
source for delivering; however, the functions as sales, R&D, marketing should be considered
evaluating the cost-effective as well as strategic locations of trading from EU.

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BREXIT influence can be spread to UK trading along with rest other countries in the
world. Over the previous two decades, the EU have negotiated over 36 FTA along with 58 non-
EU countries (Roy and Mathur 2016). Several other types of trade agreements are under
processing for being activated or under negotiation for activation. UK would not be benefitted
from the arguments as it left EU. The UK should choose renegotiation over trading deals for all
the other countries; this situation will be time-consuming way and it can consume more
expenditure (Davies and Studnicka 2017). In the same context, UK will consider limited access
to the EU markets, multinational, and also the major supply chain anchors for reassessing all the
features of UK to grip Europe.
The discussion has focused on the consequences of BREXIT on UK households for
trading; moreover, BREXIT could influence over UK economy throughout changes in
investment, migration, and regulation (Anderson, Mitchell and Crawfurd 2017). The researchers
will examined the channels for closer evaluation in future reports; however, in one way; the
findings interpreted that BREXIT may have economic benefit. The channels that have
sufficiently large and positive impact on UK economy for outweigh negative effects over
identification (Currie 2016). This is extremely unlikely for the entire case; BREXIT is likely for
reducing foreign investments; this information has found for leading to higher productivity; for
instance, Coulter and Hancke (2016) estimated that EU membership can add up to 2.25% for UK
GDP through channel to foreign direct investment. On similar way, the migration is identified to
aid growth and helping the reduction of budget deficit without making any serious damage to
market effects.
Eurosceptics in most cases can pinpoint to the promise for better and lesser regulation as
bigger benefits in post-BREXIT scenario. It is essential for realization for regulation that will not

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affect over single market; such as countries in Norway, Switzerland for adopting similar
regulations with rest of the EU countries (Ryan 2016). The rest of the EU countries cannot have
single vote on what regulations can be. The UK could lessen social, employment, and
environmental regulations over some degree. However, when it could be politically possible and
at that time, UK was considered as one of the most flexible employment and product market
regulations over world as per OECD information (Keen 2017). The product regulation for United
States can be stated second and third for United States and Canada for labor regulations.
Once, the GDP impact exists for such corresponding regulations being large at some
point, the discussion is under controversy. Weakening the protection rule for US levels can make
little yet positive economic difference (Doherty 2016). When UK can accept higher trade costs
with removing high levels of access for EU market under pessimistic scenario. There will be
scope for regulatory scenario for loosening. Onaran and Guschanski (2016) stated that 56
regulations that are derived from EU legislation can include UK Government’s impact
assessment for finding out costs that overcome benefits. Wenger (2017) claimed that estimation
of cost to these regulations is considered to be 0.9% of UK’s GDP value. However, several
regulations among these rules can implement policies for UK government for committing to
following either within the EU countries group or outside of EU countries group (Grant et al.
2016). For instance, half of total cost included from two simple policies such as renewable
energy strategy and working time directives.
These regulations that are scrapped for abandoning UK’s renewable energy targets for
removing entire rights so that entitlement for 20 days can be under paid annual leave (Sellers and
Sellers 2017). In case, the regulatory cost of EU membership were under 0.9% under amount of
GDP; this amount is lower than half as per estimation of net cost of BREXIT is considered in

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purely static case. Several cost figures fewer than 6.3% to 9.5% costs are under dynamic case for
considerations (Stalford 2016). Some costs of regulation in UK can be considered for inefficient
planning system. These identified problems can be under primarily homegrown, rather than
importing from Brussels.
Several factors that can determine whether firm can choose for locating and investing.
Improved marketing strategy can attract more firms that want to close the customers (Emmerson
et al. 2016). UK has formulated strong rule on law for flexible labor marketing and with highly
educated workforce employees. Moreover, these rules and regulations can make it attractive for
FDI locations for stating whether under or not in EU countries. However, EU membership can
reduce trade and investment costs so that it is likely for having an impact on controlling for those
other factors (Weale 2017). For estimating size of effect for being in EU or FDI so that the
researcher can provide new empirical analysis and in-depth outcomes.
The outcomes from statistical model can be based on bilateral FDL flow in between 34
OECD countries during year range of 1985 to 2013. Model can estimate why foreign investors
choose for investing in UK; as opposing to other countries such as Germany, United States, and
France (Baker, Ali and Thrasher, 2016). It is quite similar for ‘gravity model’ for following
standard way to estimating the bilateral flow of exporting and importing. Bilateral FDL flow can
be between any pair of countries that depend on respective market size that is measured from
GDP. Geographical distance between the countries and other factors are considered such as GDP
per capita (Somai and Biedermann 2016). The statistical model can address to question for FDI
flow between two countries in case the sender and recipient joins EU countries. Once, the factors
are accounted from FDI determinants as geographical distance with culture. The researcher can
consider full control over looking at changes in FDI over determinants.

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3. Chapter Three: Research Methodology
3.1 Introduction
This chapter is prepared for defining appropriate method and depicting proper approach
that would be suitable for attaining complete and detailed results of the process. Campos (2016)
opined that theories and concepts can be used for research methodology so that better format of
research can be achieved. Application of research design, approach, and data collection process
makes the study outcomes detailed and justifying the research initiatives. However, Carrera,
Guild and Luk (2016) pinpointed that in-depth analysis can provide appropriate outcomes within
research constraints. The researcher applied proper method outline and research procedures in
order to achieve outcomes related to BREXIT consequences in UK trade and living standards.
3.2 Method Outline
In this chapter, detailed research approach and techniques are used for analyzing
BREXIT consequence in UK trade and living standards. Selected research approach is deductive
so that the approach can allow the research for conducting study based on secondary study
(Springford 2013). The deductive approach can make the study possible to conduct in
appropriate manner. Descriptive design of study can help in defining the use of concept and
application of theories with impact of study. The study considered major findings over relevant
secondary studies to provide suitable level of discussion along with evidences from related
studies.
3.3 Research Onion

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Research onion is considered as methodology tool that helps in identifying primary
divisions of research work along with ability to successful analysis of topic. Calhoun (2016)
claimed that research onion is considered as proper tool to help academic study of agenda with
proper stages of studying. Research onion has some layers and divisions and those are named as
philosophies, approaches, strategies, choices, and timeline consideration techniques.
Figure 1: Research Onion Diagram
(Source: Saunders et al. 2009)
Based on research onion diagram, the onion helps in dividing study work into different
layer of research techniques for increasing better analysis format and stages. Research requires
following individual layer of study for appropriately following structured procedure in study.
3.4 Research Philosophy

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In research methodology section, choosing research philosophy is another major way to
address proper manner to obtain detailed outcomes. McKenna (2016) depicted that use of
research philosophy explains considered assumptions that is undertaken for researchers to
conduct the study. On the contrary, thinking process varies for researchers and therefore,
selection of research philosophies varies (Lea 2017). Primary consideration is identified for
choosing research philosophy is to align it effectively with research process. Major parts of
research philosophy are identified as ontology, epistemology, positivism, realism, interpretivism,
and axiology.
Ontology is identified as dependent on reality nature; it is segmented under two
categories such as objectivism and subjectivism. Firstly, objectivism helps to convey certain
positions where the social objects persever all reality for the social actors (Knight 2017).
Secondly, subjectivism considers about social events that emerges from perceptions and
consequences of social actors for existence. For instance, government is organizing Filmfare
Award ceremony; where all international level celebrities and government official ministers are
invited (Kee and Nicita 2017). The researcher requires mapping the crowd attitudes and
temperaments; then subjectivism philosophy should be adopted.
Positivism is referred to as an approach for conducting natural work depending upon
social entity (Tans 2017). To perform research based on this philosophy, primary data collection
is required and structured hypotheses should be prepared. In order to facilitate the hypothesis,
structured methodologies should have to be followed. The researcher cannot alter the collected
information from the primary sources, as those data are completely dependent upon the research
topic (Burke 2016). Now, the researcher will study some secondary literature sources for finding
out factors such as importance, types, increased rates, future scopes, and others (Oliver 2016).

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Therefore, the researcher develops hypothesis to identify influential factors. In positivism, the
hypotheses are tested and the outcome is confirmed from developed theory.
Realism is identified as another philosophy based approach where epistemology relates
with scientific manner of responses. The basic feature of realism is it can identify the truth and
the real existence of the objects (Harvey and Hubbard 2016). Realism is again segmented on two
parts such as critical realism and direct realism. Critical realism can be completed in two
different stages such as experience gathered from the world whereas; direct realism is about
those data which are gathered from research areas. On the other hand, the interpretivism is a
segment of epistemology in which differences are assessed from the social components
(Dhingra, Ottaviano and Sampson 2017). In this philosophy, the interpretations of social rules
are presented over perceived meaning. Axiology is identified as consideration of judgment,
aesthetics, and ethics. Axiological approach can reflect over making decisions and judgment
about outcomes.
3.4.1 Justification for Selection of chosen philosophy
In this research study, researchers aimed to perform secondary study and present the
outcomes from previous works. Therefore, realism and interpretivism philosophy is likely for
usage; however, realism philosophy is not acceptable for time-limited studies. Henceforth, the
interpretivism philosophy is used for this research. Selection of interpretivism philosophy helps
to depict several relevant studies and their associate outcomes for justifying the objectives of the
research work.
3.5 Research Approach

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The research approach defines the format of the study, following which the research
should be conducted. An exact or particular research agenda is considered for conducting the
study in two broader ways both for deductive and inductive (Bruno et al. 2016). Inductive
approach is used to study the agenda in which several sources of data are available. Observation
helps to gather different information for building proper way to study the agenda; this is the very
initial phase of inductive research. On the other hand, in some extent, Dhingra et al. (2016) states
that inductive approach can fulfill the purpose to build theories the agendas. On the other hand,
deductive approach identifies a problem to discuss the practical application for different theories
to obtain access over the content of the research content. Deductive approach follows particular
aim for building theory so that proper specifications and concepts over data analysis (Sampson
2017). Furthermore, a research topic can provide different research approaches so that applied
data analysis technique can be used to gain proper implications about the topic.
3.5.1 Justification for Selection of chosen approach
Particular approach is chosen for this study is deductive approach where consequences of
BREXIT should be identified from UK trading and living standard aspect. Major consequences
are identified in literature review section along with studying related agenda from previous
works. The outcomes should be presented with deductive approach for suitable reasons about
BREXIT consequences. Furthermore, the researchers have depicted the particular way to
introduce BREXIT related financial and trading model for specifying theories to resolve the
issues as well.
3.6 Research Design

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Research Design
Exploratory Design Explanatory Design Descriptive Design
Research design adheres to consider explanation of theoretical framework for research
topic in which proper collection and analysis approaches are required. In this data collection
procedure, the most suitable approach should be selected for describing research design (Oliver
2014). Three different types of research design approaches such as exploratory, explanatory, and
descriptive are there. Exploratory design helps to identify some ideas and concepts about the
topic in order to provide discussion over the agenda. The exploratory design describes about
occurrence of BREXIT consequences in UK trading aspect. Moreover, explanatory design is
favorable for studying the research topic and corresponding event so that fishbone analysis,
cause-effect analysis, and penetration study can be conducted (Bouoiyour and Selmi 2016).
However, in this design, in-depth discussion and theoretical analysis is limited compared to other
designs such as exploratory or descriptive.
Figure 2: Types of Research Design
(Source: Jafari and Britz 2017, pp. 8)
Finally, descriptive design is appropriate for demonstrating the detailed outcomes about
the topic and in-depth discussion. As per research nature and study requirements, the descriptive
design should be prepared.

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3.6.1 Justification for Selection of chosen design
In order to conduct the secondary data analysis, to obtain related work resultants, for this
particular research topic, descriptive research design in adopted. For gathering relevant articles
and journals, descriptive research design is needed to be chosen. It helps to identify the analysis
results and key findings in an accurate organized manner. Through this the whether the collected
documents are supportive enough or not can also be indicated. Thus, from the overall research
discussion it can be said that, selection of descriptive design is absolutely correct from the
research topic perspectives. It can efficiently serve crucial information in a detail manner.
3.7 Data Collection Process
There are two different data collection processes are there such as primary and secondary.
Based o the nature of the study it can be said that for this topic secondary data collection is the
most suitable one (Steinberg 2017). Thus, in order to conduct the research work instead of
survey journals and articles should be considered to meet the research objectives.
3.7.1 Data Sources: Primary and Secondary
Two types of data sources are available such as primary and secondary, primary sources
deals with data collected through conducting different survey whereas; secondary data is all
about selection of online journals, news papers and yearly articles (Mendez-Parra, Papadavid and
te Velde 2016). In order to demonstrate the particular research outcomes, secondary study
materials should be identified. Primary data are collected from on-point evidence only such as
questionnaire survey (Steinberg 2017). In order to serve different direct events, personnel,
individual activities primary data source are used on the other hand; there are some more primary
sources such as historical as well as legal documents (Jafari and Britz 2017). However, in order

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to obtain the research objectives appropriately the experimental outcomes, video and audio
contents can also be considered.
The outcomes generated from interviews, survey, questionnaire investigation etc can be
used as primary data sources and for making the communication approach perfect the medium
those are chosen include email, blog, newsletters etc. In order to fulfill empirical analysis, from
the social and natural science the primary data should be used (Lea 2016). Over the observation
on direct outcome the research outcomes can be performed. Even some of the outcomes can be
gained from different scholarly articles, results of conferences.
In order to describe, analyze, discuss, interpret, comment, evaluating and summarizing
primary data secondary sources are widely used. For studying different well known magazines,
articles, newspapers, the secondary data sources and secondary data materials are to be used. It
also helps to demonstrate the primary research work of other person (Arnorsson and Zoega
2016). For giving justification over the research objectives, all secondary study outcomes should
have o be analyzed accordingly.
3.7.2 Data Techniques: Qualitative and Quantitative
There are two different types of data techniques such as qualitative and quantitative are
available those are accordingly adopted by the researchers to conduct a research work
successfully. In order to collect primary data and for gathering response from the respondents,
quantitative data techniques are used by the researchers. On the other hand, qualitative data
techniques are used for secondary data collection (Roy and Mathur 2016). In order to conduct the
research work, the researcher is needed to collect secondary data for this particular research

31PROJECT DISSERTATION
topic. For gathering data qualitative data techniques are selected by the researchers to conduct
the research work successfully.
3.8 Ethical Considerations
Ethical considerations in this research work are essential to perform the study without
contradiction about data applications (Davies and Studnicka 2017). Ethical considerations in this
study are included for adopting suitable set of behaviors to research work conducted. Researcher
should perform analyzing consequences of BREXIT over UK trade and living standard with
considering ethical implications. The ethical considerations are stated as:
Application of Data: Gathered data should be used for BREXIT consequences in order to
understand impact of BREXIT impacts on UK trade living standards. The application of data can
be used for secondary study and any commercial usage of data should be avoided (Anderson,
Mitchell and Crawfurd 2017). The application of data should be limited to academic research
works only so that ethically appropriate way can be followed in detailed study activities.
Convenient Citations and Referencing: As the study is to be conducted as secondary
with considering all relevant studies from offline or online sources, the sources should be cited
with putting in-text citation (Currie 2016). The major aspect of using someone else’s findings
into new research paper is that those particular findings should be incorporated with appropriate
referencing. The way of practicing referencing and citations is considered as best manner to
utilize secondary data implications.
Confidentiality of data: The data confidentiality should be maintained with identifying
information source from which data can be accessed someone else than research team.
Confidentiality of data ensures the ethical means of keeping all secondary findings excluded

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from any published content or reports (Coulter and Hancke 2016; Ryan 2016). For peer-reviewed
sources, secondary data should be used in other reports in such a way so that there will be no
opportunity for other people to identify the source; even though no name is used.
Assessment of relevant components only: In the study, particular data or information
components should be used that are clearly relevant to the program or research initiative that was
conducted (Keen 2017). Major relevant findings from secondary data can have some irrelevant
parts to the study context or research objectives. Therefore, the secondary findings that should be
utilized in the study that has direct relevance with the research objectives and expected
outcomes.
3.9 Research Limitations
After comprising different research studies it has been found that, a research fails to reach
the objectives due to some research limitations. These limitations should be resolves for
successful accomplishment of a any research study (Doherty 2016). However, within the
discussion essential restrictions should be kept those needs secure investigation. For this study
the identified limitations are as follows:
Lack of data availability: The research scope and objectives automatically become
bounded due to lack of availability of information. It will definitely fail to identify all significant
trends and important relationships. However; these limitations cannot restrict the research
objectives. Thus this study should be conducted considering limited number of secondary data
sources.
Lack of relevant study conducted previously: Literature review is another essential part
that has to be conducted accurately to collect prior information. It will help to identify the way

33PROJECT DISSERTATION
through which the corresponding outcomes can be used as a part of discussion (Wenger 2017).
However, according to some of the research agenda secondary sources are not necessarily all
time significantly related. In order to avoid other issues the study approach must be changed for
facilitating the maximum available outcomes.
Time and Budget Limitations: Due to the cross sectional nature of the study, time and
budget are the two most important constraints to be considered. Due to lack of time and budget
the researchers may fail to add on some important as well as specific findings.(Grant et al. 2016).
Due to lack of economical support, research work may also be interrupted accordingly.
3.10 Time Horizon
In order to accomplish the total research project successfully this is crucial for the
researcher to segment the entire workload among the research team members. Based on the size
and complexity of an activity, duration should be considered for each task, this is referred to as
the timeline of the research work (Sellers and Sellers 2017). Based upon the activities the
timeline should be prepared. It is assumed that if a researcher can successfully complete a task
within the estimated timeline then, the cost will also be reduced accordingly. Thus, activity
mapping is referred to as a major task to do. A realistic timeline should be prepared to
successfully complete the research work. According to timeline mapping the research work
should be completed and for this research work the time line prepared is shown below:
Activities Week
1
Week
2
Week
3
Week
4
Week
5
Week
6
Identification of the research area

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Selection of appropriate research topic
Secondary data collection
Conduction of a literature review
Proper research methodology and
approach identification
Secondary data collection
Outcomes from secondary data
Finding and analysis from data
Ultimate conclusion
Rough write up draft design
Draft submission
Approval form the desired changes
Final submission of the research paper
Table 3: Timeline developed for the research
(Source: Created by author)
3.11 Summary
After considering all study outcomes the research should be conducted as a secondary
research. In order to utilize the concept and theories those are supporting the secondary
documents descriptive research design should be chosen by the researcher. After demonstrating
the research philosophy and the background of this particular research topic, it has been found

35PROJECT DISSERTATION
that, among realism, positivism and interpretivism, the interpretivism research philosophy should
be adopted by the researchers. This philosophy helps to identify the related studies and their
relevant outcomes as well to reach the research objectives. Again between inductive and
deductive research studies, deductive method is selected for accomplishing the research topic
area successfully. After considering all ethical implications, secondary data sources are to be
utilized accordingly. In addition to this an appropriate timeline is also developed to reduce the
work load and successfully completing each and every activity.
4. Chapter Four: Analysis and Discussion
4.1 Introduction
According to the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB) used a
research approach to show that BREXIT is more probable for decreasing bilateral trading
between UK, EU. This particular study defines the significant changes in GDP within the real
income per capita; thus high level of cost for trading between United Kingdom and European
Union will translate that lesser competent allotment for the resources.
In case of resource loss that is directly linked with type of post-BREXIT EU-UK trading
deal can be easily achieved. Though in some cases, the trading among EU and UK can revert
back to the rule developed by WTO, to allow the rest of the 27 countries to get around 0.8% of
reduced percentage of GDP before 2030 (Emmerson et al. 2016). BREXIT lost incurred from the
scenario of FTA those are likely for a little severe with impact. On some of the particular
agreements, these details are dependent to achieve. According to the FTA scenario, that is
assumed from CPB so that UK can face 3.4% GDP decrease along with 0.6% decline in EU27
countries before 2030. The countries have experienced highest loss to GDP in Ireland, Belgium,

36PROJECT DISSERTATION
and Netherlands (Weale 2017). As outline provided before, there is relatively large amount of
trading between these countries in UK and this makes them particularly weak to BREXIT.
4.2 Major Consequences of BREXIT in UK Trade and Living Standards: Findings and
Implications
The outcomes gathered from UK EU referendum and alarming trade exit negotiations
show that the trade flow already affected with budget flow between UK and EU (Baker, Ali and
Thrasher 2016). The outcomes based on monitoring Europe’s BREXIT, the researcher will
include discussion about currently included trade flow and corresponding possible impacts of
BREXIT over intra-European trading.
4.2.1 Free Internal Market
In current aspect of internal market, the EU countries with UK can be entirely benefitted
from EU’s single market. The discussion incorporates absence of responsibilities and quotas
belonged to EU member states for business and UK trading (Somai and Biedermann 2016).
Moreover, the principle of free moving people can facilitate the access for financial workers and
services. Additionally, the customs based simplified procedures can be considered administrative
burden for several companies among the trading of EU within minimum trading.
4.2.2 Affected countries such as Belgium, Netherlands, and Germany
In the list of top 10 trading countries and partners in UK for 2015, seven countries are
considered to participate in EU. In that mentioned year 2015, 44% of UK export can be directed
to EU member states so that approximately 53% of the total import activity is originated to EU
countries (Franks 2016). Some countries who are in deep trading with UK are considered to be

37PROJECT DISSERTATION
most vulnerable for immediate economic impact with UK leaving to EU. However, Germany is
identified as UK’s largest trading partner for EU in volume; Ireland is most dependent over UK
trade in terms of share over total imports and exports activities.
Considering all western European countries, Belgium, Netherlands and Germany can
export more significantly towards UK and the countries can import from UK (Duru, Hanquinet
and Cesur 2017). Based on price elasticity and dependency on exporting products quality, the
countries have witnessed a lack in terms of trading with UK. After BREXIT scenario, the
outcomes from trading is increased in significant amount between UK and rest countries of EU;
to some extent, the cost of trade can be damaging for UK and rest of EU countries (Booth et al.
2015). Among the other EU counties, those countries are involved with exporting most products
to UK and the exporting size is relative to size of economics. Ireland is stated as top priority for
the list of trading and Cyprus is on second to that list; following Netherlands and Belgium as
third and forth countries in the list (Sumption 2017). Again for German export volumes, the
exporting volume is considered to be largest for Europe due to sheer size; Germany has
considered other important export destinations for compensating a decline in UK-bound export
after BREXIT scenario.

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Figure 4: Top-10 list of Export Destinations and Import Origins in UK, 2015
(Source: Wilcock and Miller 2016, pp. 216)
Based on the above implications represented in graph, the countries are separated for
different economic perspectives. The countries are separately discussed as for Ireland,
Netherlands, Belgium, and Germany.
A. Ireland’s economic consideration is particularly strong for orientation to
exporting activities. The exporting activities that depend on UK for 14% of export
volumes and 34% of import volumes (Kirby et al. 2016). Behind trading
disruptions, the re-introduction for customs are potential for imposing new cost
rates, lost time over cross-border transaction activities. On the other hand, the
Ireland is considered as benefitted country from larger inflows from investments
and alternative investment locations (Menon and Salter 2016). The foreign
countries might be seeking other access towards entry points of EU single
marketing initiative.

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Figure 5: Ireland Economic position and consequences
(Source: Dhingra et al. 2016, pp. 124)
B. The Netherlands is listed as UK’s second largest EU trading partner; in terms of
volume and proportion over exporting and importing both (Andersson and
Nilsson 2016). Netherlands is closer towards investment amount tie for UK, UK
is most popular destination for Dutch investors, and the country is second most
legitimate destination for UK investors. Increasing value of EURO versus Sterling
is considered as major factor that influences on UK-Dutch trading procedures (El-
Shimy 2017). Dutch flower exporters have reported about decline in demand for
UK over relatively expensive flowers and plants that are in weeks for immediately
after BREXIT voting.

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C. Belgium is affected over larger extent for BREXIT; 9% of Belgian export of
commodities is shipped towards UK (Bell and Machin 2013). Based on exporting
that are related with economic size; Belgium holds ranking of fourth among EU
countries and the country is mostly affected from BREXIT outcomes. Among
total Belgian imports, 5% of them came from UK and for importing, Belgium
occupies fifth place in this activity (Dhingra et al. 2016). In service sector, supply
and purchase side considered Belgium as in fourth position among list of EU
countries.
D. Germany is considered as largest trading country for EU countries and in term of
volume. BREXIT can remove most of the benefits from single market over
German industry particularly, in automotive sector (Passlack 2016). Germany
exporting commodities are most perpetual procedure for suffering from imports.
However, as Germany as EU’s largest economy; that has relatively lower
dependency on UK trading.
4.2.3 Future UK trade flow
Some other sectors those will be impacted much harder than other sectors that left UK
than leaving EU. Some sectors might experience bigger export impact in motor vehicles, parts,
electronic equipments, and processed foods (Chang 2017). Motor vehicles can stand out to be
most popular commodity for largest share in trading between United Kingdom and European
Union because UK is one of the important producers for the motor vehicles and also motor parts.
The sales market of vehicles is the second in Europe. European Union, accounted approximately
57.5% for the vehicle exporting and thus it is considered as the export market too (Zhang and An
2016). For UK, services sector is most impacted sector after BREXIT occurred. Services within

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industry that is considered with approximately 80% of the net economy of UK and based upon
the HM treasury analysis it is stated similarly. London is global financial center being largest in
all over Europe (Evlogias 2017). Part of both the insurance as well as financial services, those
are exported from UK are again exported to EU also. Apart from this, UK has trade excess for
EU along with GBP as approximately 19.8 billion. The following chart represents the
information of impact over the financial services of BREXIT.
Figure 6: UK Export and Import to EU with five Commodities, 2016
(Source: Jayakumar 2017, pp. 223)
4.3 Estimation of BREXIT Consequences in UK Trade and Living Standards: Findings and
Implications
4.3.1 Increment of Trade Cost
Impact on EU-UK trade can depend on relationship between UK and EU on post-
BREXIT scenario. In most likely scenario, comprehensively Free Trade Agreement (FTA) can
fall back to WTO rules and costs of trading between UK and EU will definitely increase (Van
Reenen 2016). The cost of trading can be broadly defined under consideration of market access

42PROJECT DISSERTATION
measurements for tariffs and quotas so that increment in administrative burden and behind-
border rules can be defined. The administrative burden includes customs formalities and VAT
tax and behind-border rules can define extent of non-tariff barriers (NTBs) for trading
(Wielechowski and Czech 2016). Some instances from NTBs are considered as in health,
environmental and safety standards along with rules of origin requirements. Increment in costs
can be accounted for businesses and most likely scenario is that the cost can be passed to
consumers.
According to the Free Trade Agreement (FTA) dependent relationship, UK and EU could
negotiate terms of accessing specific sectors where standards and regulations can be applied for
the particular sectors (Douch, Edwards and Milne 2017). As per EU tradition in harmony, the
mutual recognition can mean for choice of UK that would likely for either adopting EU
standards or firms to carry out cost of meeting over two different sets of standards. Tariff costs
can be negotiated with free trade agreement (FTA) are likely for level closer to current and next-
to-zero levels (Oehler, Horn and Wendt 2017). However, to some extent, the WTO scenario can
increase the tariff costs for WTO’s favorable countries as in MFN (Most Favored Nation) level.
Moreover, the tariff costs are higher than current level and may put impact on trade flows.

43PROJECT DISSERTATION
Figure 7: MFN Tariff costs in percentage value for Sectors
(Source: Simionescu et al. 2017, pp. 29)
Based on terms of timing, business can grow and expect innovative trading regime(s) for
placing under any time between 2019 and 2029. UK is set for triggering Article 50 before end of
March 2017 and union can be exited not before than end of March 2019. Based on this dates,
trading between EU and UK can either be subject to interim regime (for instances based on EEA
rules) or trading for reverting back to WTO rules (Vergano and Dolle 2016). The reverting to
WTO rules can be fallen back for options within no comprehensive new deal can be reached.
Prior experience from related studies shown multilateral FTAs can consider five to ten
years of negotiation period for rational outcomes from national, regional, and from government.
It is unlikely that comprehensively new agreement will set for in-place on particular day that UK
can exit European Union (Dhingra et al. 2016). It is more likely that some types of temporary
regime can exist for two parties negotiation along with future terms. Another final deal can be
expected for earliest in 2024 considering final duration up to 2029; so that both parties can agree
over and provide rating to deal procedures at national level.
4.3.2 Influence on Transfer Pricing
BREXIT can influence over trade-based fiscal regulations over EU countries. Companies
can transport goods as well as services towards to facilities over different countries belongs to
EU for paying taxes for other countries (Wadsworth et al. 2016). For corrections over inter-
company transaction, the products can be put under double-tax category over different other tax
authorities. However, to some extent, the companies are currently avoiding the double taxing
through EU to arbitration convention.

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Once, UK left EU; the UK would not be considered as direct party for the EU economic
legislation. Thus, it can be asked that whether the BREXIT can influence the arbitration of EU
over and gathering so that is can be treaty for concluding with Member States (Dhingra et al.
2016). This particular convention is not considered within remit of EU and as per principle,
revision for the convention can be asked for contracting Member States. Question is dealt with
part of BREXIT negotiations for subsequent views and willing nature of Member States in order
to practice resolving double-tax throughout arbitration (Kierzenkowski et al. 2016). The parties
can remain obliged for going under convention.
4.3.3 Reconsideration of Locations for Supply Chain and Value Chain
For supply chain becoming more important towards competitive nature, the supply chains
are considered as under global aspect for companies. The globalized supply chain management
can decrease cost of sourcing, production, and delivery (Crafts 2016). Additional to these
outcomes, the companies are aiming for getting high-level services as per customer expectations
relevant to quality and speed of delivery increment. Moreover, as per outcomes and study of the
implications of Global Council, the higher ratio of gross trading related with value-added
services. UK’s trading is connected over global supply chain values (Ebell and Warren 2016).
Among all value-added supply chain management, 41% of them is in exports and that coming to
EU and rest 12% from US. Importance of UK in international supply chain is emphasized with
considering some other sectors. Moreover, the financial services and professional services in UK
industries, performs export in mining, chemical products, transport system, telecom, retail and
wholesale sectors (Dhingra et al. 2017). These professional service and financial service
providers of UK industries are essential to international supply chain management.

45PROJECT DISSERTATION
Once, UK left European Union, currently global supply chain for EU market should be
redesigned. Uncertain situations from trade policies and influence on trade between EU and UK
casts significant impact on investments for supply chain management footprint (Ottaviano et al.
2014). Moreover, several companies exist for making strategic capital investment decisions
about warehousing, factories, logistics capabilities; can consider UK as location. For pending
uncertainty in BREXIT vote, the decisions might be postponed (Dhingra and Sampson 2016).
The decisions that could not be postponed should be considered as under bias for favor over non-
UK locations.
For supply chain management, the organizations should calibrate to costing levels along
with services leveling over nodes in supply chain management. In case transaction cost for
trading becomes too high, the companies should reconsider current or existing locations in UK
(Mulabdic, Osnago and Ruta 2017). The value chain transformation should not only be
considered as source for delivering; however, the functions as sales, R&D, marketing should be
considered evaluating cost-effective and strategic locations for trading to and from EU.
4.3.4 Future UK Trade Flow
BREXIT influence can be spread to UK trading along with rest other countries in the
world. Over the previous two decades, the EU has negotiated over 36 FTA along with 58 non-
EU countries (Busch and Matthes 2016). The following map shows the findings in detail:

46PROJECT DISSERTATION
Figure 8: BREXIT impact on EU and other Countries
(Source: Baker et al. 2016, pp. 341)
Several other types of trade agreements are under processing for being activated or under
negotiation for activation. UK would not be benefitted from the arguments as it left EU. The UK
should choose renegotiation over trading deals for all the other countries; this situation will be
time-consuming way and it can consume more expenditure (Gudgin et al. 2016; Springford and
Whyte 2014). In the same context, UK will consider the EU markets for the limitation in access,
and the major supply chain systems for improving the beauty of United Kingdom to grip Europe.
4.4 Effect of BREXIT on Migration, Foreign Investment and Regulation

47PROJECT DISSERTATION
The discussion has focused on the consequences of BREXIT on UK households for
trading; moreover, BREXIT could influence over UK economy throughout changes in
investment, migration, and regulation (Sampson et al. 2016). The researchers will examined the
channels for closer evaluation in future reports; however, in one way; the findings interpreted
that BREXIT may have economic benefit. The channels that have sufficiently large and positive
impact on UK economy for outweigh negative effects over identification (Emmerson, Johnson
and Mitchell 2016). This is extremely unlikely for the entire case; BREXIT is likely for reducing
foreign investments; this information has found for leading to higher productivity; for instance,
Hatzigeorgiou and Lodefalk (2016) estimated that EU membership can add up to 2.25% for UK
GDP through channel to foreign direct investment. On similar way, the migration is identified to
aid growth and helping the reduction of budget deficit without making any serious damage to
market effects.
Eurosceptics in most cases can pinpoint to the promise for better and lesser regulation as
bigger benefits in post-BREXIT scenario (Dhingra et al. 2016). It is essential for realization for
regulation that will not affect over single market; such as countries in Norway, Switzerland for
adopting similar regulations with rest of the EU countries. The rest of the EU countries cannot
have single vote on what regulations can be (Hunt and Wheeler 2016). The UK could lessen
social, employment, and environmental regulations over some degree. However, when it could
be politically possible and at that time, UK was considered as one of the most flexible
employment and product market regulations over world as per OECD information (Sampson et
al. 2016). The product regulation for United States can be stated second and third for United
States and Canada for labor regulations.

48PROJECT DISSERTATION
Once, the GDP impact exists for such corresponding regulations being large at some
point, the discussion is under controversy. Weakening the protection rule for US levels can make
little yet positive economic difference (Swinbank 2016). When UK can accept higher trade costs
with removing high levels of access for EU market under pessimistic scenario. There will be
scope for regulatory scenario for loosening. Armstrong and Portes (2016) stated that 56
regulations that are derived from EU legislation can include UK Government’s impact
assessment for finding out costs that overcome benefits. Bruno et al. (2016) claimed that
estimation of cost to these regulations is considered to be 0.9% of UK’s GDP value. However,
several regulations among these rules can implement policies for UK government for committing
to following either within the EU countries group or outside of EU countries group (McMahon
2016). For instance, half of total cost included from two simple policies such as renewable
energy strategy and working time directives.
These regulations that are scrapped for abandoning UK’s renewable energy targets for
removing entire rights so that entitlement for 20 days can be under paid annual leave (Chadha
2016). In case, the regulatory cost of EU membership were under 0.9% under amount of GDP;
this amount is lower than half as per estimation of net cost of BREXIT is considered in purely
static case. Several cost figures under 6.3% to 9.5% costs are under dynamic case for
considerations (Busch and Matthes 2016). Some costs of regulation in UK can be considered for
inefficient planning system. These identified problems can be under primarily homegrown,
rather than importing from Brussels.

49PROJECT DISSERTATION
4.4.1 Financial analysis
Project Cost-Benefit Analysis
Analysis
Variables:
Discount Rate
Used
5.00%
Annual
Benefits
£2,475,
200.00
Annual
Operational
Costs
£2,811,
000.00
One-Time
Development
Cost
£3,785,
637.00
Year of Project
0 1 2 3 4 5 TOTAL
S
Economic
Benefit
£
-
£2,475,
200.00
£
2,475,2
00.00
£
2,475,20
0.00
£
2,475,20
0.00
£
2,475,20
0.00
Discount Rate £
1.00
£
0.95
£
0.91
£
0.86
£
0.82
£
0.78

50PROJECT DISSERTATION
PV of Benefits £
-
£2,357,
333.33
£
2,245,0
79.37
£
2,138,17
0.82
£
2,036,35
3.17
£
1,939,38
3.97
NPV of all
BENEFITS
£
-
£2,357,
333.33
£
4,602,4
12.70
£
6,740,58
3.52
£
8,776,93
6.69
£10,716
,320.66
£10,716
,320.66
One-Time
COSTS
-
£3,785,
637.00
Recurring
Costs
£
-
-
£2,811,
000.00
-£
2,811,0
00.00
-£
2,811,00
0.00
-£
2,811,00
0.00
-£
2,811,00
0.00
Discount Rate £
1.00
£
0.95
£
0.91
£
0.86
£
0.82
£
0.78
PV of
Recurring
Costs
£
-
-
£2,677,
142.86
-£
2,549,6
59.86
-£
2,428,24
7.49
-£
2,312,61
6.66
-£
2,202,49
2.05
NPV of all
COSTS
-
£3,785,
637.00
-
£6,462,
779.86
-£
9,012,4
39.72
-
£11,440,
687.21
-
£13,753,
303.87
-
£15,955,
795.92
-
£15,955,
795.92
Overall NPV -£
5,239,47

51PROJECT DISSERTATION
5.27
Overall ROI
-0.3284
Break-even
Analysis
Yearly NPV
Cash FLOW
-
£3,785,
637.00
-£
319,809
.52
-£
304,580
.50
-£
290,076.
67
-£
276,263.
49
-£
263,108.
09
Overall NPV
Cash FLOW
-
£3,785,
637.00
-
£4,105,
446.52
-£
4,410,0
27.02
-£
4,700,10
3.69
-£
4,976,36
7.18
-£
5,239,47
5.27
From the analysis, it can be said that Brexit will cost money for UK as the overall NPV
has been estimated as -£5,239,475.27 which is a negative value. Hence, it has been determined
that Brexit will not be profitable and UK will have to leave the European Union.
4.4.2 EU Membership impact on FDI
Several factors that can determine whether firm can choose for locating and investing.
Improved marketing strategy can attract more firms that want to close the customers. UK has
formulated strong rule on law for flexible labor marketing and with highly educated workforce
employees (Portes 2016; Lea 2016). Moreover, these rules and regulations can make it attractive
for FDI locations for stating whether under or not in EU countries. However, EU membership
can reduce trade and investment costs so that it is likely for having an impact on controlling for

52PROJECT DISSERTATION
those other factors (Dhingra and Sampson 2016). For estimating size of effect for being in EU or
FDI so that the researcher can provide new empirical analysis and in-depth outcomes.
The outcomes from statistical model can be based on bilateral FDL flow in between 34
OECD countries during year range of 1985 and 2013. Model can estimate why the investors
belongs to foreign countries choose UK for investing in; as opposing some other countries such
as Germany, United States, and France (Coyle 2016). It is quite similar for ‘gravity model’ for
following standard way to estimating the bilateral flow of exporting and importing. Bilateral
FDL flow can be between any two countries those are based on the respective market size that
are measured from GDP. According to the geographical gap between the countries and other
factors are considered such as GDP per capita (Cumming and Zahra 2016). The statistical model
can address to question for FDI flow between two countries in case the sender and recipient joins
EU countries. Once, the factors are accounted from FDI determinants as geographical distance
with culture (Oliver 2016). The researcher can consider full control over looking at changes in
FDI over determinants.
4.4.3 Changes in FDI for impacting on UK incomes
There exists some more evidence over FDI that brings effects that are more beneficial
over enhanced productivity. For instance, Bourne (2016) suggested that multinational companies
can increase productivity for increased innovative along with technical and managerial practices.
Top of direct effect, Campos (2016) found out the foreign investors spillovers for others; UK-
owned firms are similar. However, over nation-wide impact of FDI on outcomes, the researcher
required to factorize several difficult paths in which FDI influences people as well as firms over
numerous parts of economy. This approach is referred to as a tricky part and risk; in which the

53PROJECT DISSERTATION
researcher can draw out implications so that effect of changes in FDI can be estimated over
growth rates for 73 countries (Carrera, Guild and Luk 2016). The researcher have found out that
increasing FDI can provide big impression on the growth of GDP in positive value for countries
such as UK with highly developed financial sector.
For becoming conservative, the researchers have assumed a scenario in which BREXIT
induced fall in FDI for 10 years and the outcome reverts to current level (Springford 2013). With
average of all estimated outcomes, so that income can be estimated to 3.4%. Over viewing to
wider range, the researcher have obtained fall in income between 1.8% and 4.3%; so that the
decline can be reduced. Value of FDI can be influenced from income as of 3.4% that is much big
than the static elements from losses from trade (Calhoun 2016).
The changed effects of FDI can be equal to the loss of GDP approximatley £ 2,200 per
different household elements. As per previous studies, McKenna (2016) estimated that EU
membership could add with 2.25% up to UK GDP through FDI. FDI can grow with UK over
estimated time; the researcher have found out that channel is becoming more essential for
income reasons.
4.5 Analysis Summary
However, EU reacted to futuristic Free Trade Agreement with UK; question arises as
how? This particular thing is to be remembered for pending negotiations between EU and UK.
Apart from this, several countries of EU would require avoiding BREXIT to set up example for
motivating other Member of the States for picking up or choosing different types of benefits and
costs over EU membership. For avoiding this risk, incentive should be there to make exit terms
favorable for UK. On the other hand, several EU countries can trade closely with UK and

54PROJECT DISSERTATION
increasing tariffs for NTBs with hitting the countries. Favorable FTA with UK can diminish the
EU costs. Generally, state members of EU are belongs to both eastern and southern Europe
because they do not have that connection with UK through trade. These countries can incur
lesser benefits from the Free Trade Agreement than other countries like Netherlands, Ireland,
Germany, Belgium etc. Some of the negotiations even with UK, are expected to be tackled by
the divisions made in Europe.
The ultimate agreement developed along with UK can again be subjected to unity of
voting over the European Council. Additionally, scrutiny from European Parliament along with
possible national and regional parliaments, UK also can be subject to unanimity. These outcomes
have shown value of tasks and points towards different challenges and negotiation period.

55PROJECT DISSERTATION
5. Chapter Five
5.1 Conclusion
Based on the introduction chapter, it can be concluded that primarily, the study aims to
identify influences of BREXIT over UK Trade and living standards. As per findings in
background section, the reductions in trade barriers can increase the trading value between UK
and EU with these aspects. In recent decades, the trade studies revealed that there are bigger
effects of BREXIT in UK living standards and trading value. However, as per structure of the
study, this dissertation is based on secondary study. The researchers have studied BREXIT
consequences with reducing trade along with lowering UK living standards.
After considering all the relevant study materials it can be said that, the overall study can
be conducted through considering secondary data only. In order to utilize the concepts and
theories of the research topic, descriptive research design approach is selected. For reaching the
research objectives through revealing all hidden facts, interpretivism research philosophy is
nominated during the research phase. It also helps to enable the research justification accurately.
Besides this, among two different research approaches such as inductive and deductive, the
deductive approach is selected because it helps to identify the consequences within the UK trades
associated to BREXIT. Considering all ethical implications, the secondary data sources are
highlighted to resolve all research level limitations. For successful completion of the research
work a timeline or schedule is also developed considering all potential working areas.\
Based on the relationship between UK and EU, the trade of EU-UK can be impacted on
post-BREXIT scenario. The overall cost of UK-EU trading will automatically increase, due to
the most likely scenario. Free Trade Agreement (FTA) can drop reverse due to the WTO

56PROJECT DISSERTATION
regulations. The cost of trading can be broadly defined under consideration of market access
measurements for tariffs and quotas so that increment in administrative burden and behind-
border rules can be defined. The administrative pressure includes facility customization as well
as VAT tax; rules behind the borders can be defined as an extent for the Non-tariff barriers in
trading. Some instances from NTBs are considered as in health, environmental and safety
standards along with rules of origin requirements. Increment in costs can be accounted for
businesses and most likely scenario is that the cost can be passed to consumers.
In the list of top 10 trading countries and partners in UK for 2015, seven countries are
considered to participate in EU. In that mentioned year 2015, 44% of export from UK can be
directed to the members of States belongs to EU so that from the total import activity around
53% can be highlighted as developed to EU countries. Some countries that are in deep trading
with UK are considered to be most vulnerable for immediate economic impact with UK leaving
to EU. However, UK’s largest and most dependent trading partners in the field of import and
export domain are identified as respectively Germany and Ireland.
Considering all European countries of western domain such as Belgium, Netherlands and
Germany etc can export much appreciably towards UK and the countries themselves can import
products from UK. Depending on the electricity price and dependency on exporting products
quality, the countries have witnessed a lack in terms of trading with UK. After BREXIT
scenario, the outcomes from trading is increased in significant amount between UK and rest
countries of EU; to some extent, the cost of trade can be damaging for UK and rest of EU
countries. Among the other EU counties, those countries are involved with exporting most
products to UK and the exporting size is relative to size of economics. Ireland is stated as top
priority for the list of trading and Cyprus is on second to that list; following Netherlands and

57PROJECT DISSERTATION
Belgium as third and forth countries in the list. Again, for the sheer size; German export volumes
and the exporting volume is considered to be largest for Europe. In order to compensate the
declination within UK bound, German has also considered the necessity of export destination.
BREXIT can influence over trade-based fiscal regulations over EU countries. Companies
can transport both products as well as services towards the facilities over various countries of EU
to pay tax for other countries. For corrections over inter-company transaction, the products can
be put under double-tax category over different other tax authorities. However, to some extent,
the companies are currently avoiding the double taxing through EU to arbitration convention.
Once, UK left EU; EU economic party is not directly involved with UK. Apart from this it can
also be asked that whether EU arbitration can be influenced by BREXIT and to ensure the treaty
for concluding with the members of the states. This particular approach is not considered within
the dispatch of EU and according to the principle, convention’s proper revision can be asked to
make contract with the members of the states. From the subsequent aspect, Question is dealt with
part of BREXIT negotiations for subsequent views and willing nature of members of the states,
questions deals with a part of BREXIT negotiation. It helps to resolve the issues of double tax.
The parties can remain obliged for going under convention.
For supply chain becoming more important towards competitive nature, the supply chains
are considered as under global aspect for companies. The globalized supply chain management
can decrease cost of sourcing, production, and delivery. Additional to these outcomes, the
companies are aiming for getting high-level services as per customer expectations relevant to
quality and speed of delivery increment. Moreover, as per outcomes and study of the
implications of Global Council, the higher ratio of gross trading related with value-added
services. UK’s trading is connected over global supply chain values. Among all valued supply

58PROJECT DISSERTATION
chain management, 41% of them are in exports and that coming to EU and rest 12% from US.
The role of UK’s supply chain management in the international level is emphasized with
considering some other sectors. Moreover, both the financial and professional services served in
the industrial domain of UK, performs export in the industry mining, transport system, chemical
foodstuffs, telecom, retail and even wholesale sectors also. These professional service and
financial service providers of UK industries are essential to international supply chain
management.
Once, UK left European Union, currently global supply chain for EU market should be
redesigned. Uncertain situations from trade policies and influence on trade between EU and UK
casts significant impact on investments for supply chain management footprint. About
warehousing, logistic abilities, factories or industries located in UK, there are many companies
which decide to make high strategic investment. All the awaiting decision of the BREXIT vote
can be postponed. The decisions which cannot be postponed should be measured as under bias
for favor over the locations outside UK.
For supply chain management, the organizations should calibrate to costing levels along
with services leveling over nodes in supply chain management. In case transaction cost for
trading becomes very much high, the originations should consider the current or existing location
in UK again. The value chain transformation should not only be considered as source for
delivering; however, the functions as sales, R&D, marketing should be considered to evaluate
cost much effectively and should develop strategies for trading from European Union.

59PROJECT DISSERTATION
5.2 Recommendations
In order to leave the European Union the voting done by the United Kingdom is known
as BREXIT which is triggered to a political as well as commercial earthquake whose, both the
political, social and economical penalty keep on developing daily basis headlines almost around
five months even after the final voting had been completed. The line which will provide hope to
those people who are pursuing soft BREXIT, for them the European Union included get out
clauses. The Union will be further prepared for reconsidering their offers if the positions of the
United Kingdom are found to be involved. The main recommendation that should be given for
the BREXIT is to get secure commercial support from the European Union to help out the fund
of Ireland’s reply over the measures to BREXIT. More than all other countries of Europe,
Ireland is the only country that will face major challenge. As a developed resolution it has been
found that, the European parliament recognized a completely unique as well as special
circumstance which is confronting the Ireland’s Iceland in the BREXIT face. It can be said that,
the only place in Europe is Ireland which shares a wide range of land to United Kingdom. Along
with the land bridge route and a quite large portion of the Irish goods exports to the economies of
European Union is transported. A hard BREXIT is able to include a much lower tariff because
extreme restriction can eventually increase the overall cost on which the current atmosphere.
The supply chain hub of the European Union especially in Ireland is required to be developed
accordingly to make sure a secure and clean pathway for the members belong to European
Union. As United Kingdom is a very much significant part of distribution and transportation thus
the hard BREXIT will be able to increase the cost but at the same time can reduce the system
efficiency.

60PROJECT DISSERTATION
In order to prevent the rate of massive loss that is continuously occurring in the country,
immediate comprehensive actions are required to be considered in United Kingdom. The
Government of Irish should campaign about the security policies in United Kingdom to reduce
the pressure and challenges that the industries are continuously facing. The campaign will also
help to develop positive economical support and vital protection abilities accordingly. Required
changes in the outline plans should brought for gaining economic growth. In addition to this,
other recommendation that should be considered is to maintain 9% of vat rate for the European
Hospitality industry. In order to avoid the competitiveness loss as a reply to the decline in the
values of sterling reasons, retaining the vat percentage is required. Direct job should be offered
to the applicants to gain effective commercial success and profit as well. Besides this another
recommendations for the BREXIT is to create regional BREXIT hubs mainly for the rural
tourism and hospitality departments. A national board of BREXIT should be created to develop
planning and initiative towards cost reduction in businesses.

61PROJECT DISSERTATION
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