2ECONOMICS ASSIGNMENT RD RS Reserves 0 Iff If1 If* NBR1NBR* Answer 1: The balance sheet of the Fed’s reserve system has both assets and liabilities while asset considers securities and loans to financial institutions and liabilities include currency in circulation and reserves. On the other side, open market sale occurs when the Federal Reserve sells government securities to decrease reserves or currency (Ihrig, Meade & Weinbach, 2015). As it helps the government to decrease the monetary base, it is contractionary by nature and it decreases the liability of the bank. Moreover, reverse repurchase agreement occurs liability side of the bank. Hence, this creates bank liabilities. Non-borrowed reserves represent the difference between total reserves and borrowed reserves, which is the sum of credit. This credit is extended through the regular discount window program of the Federal Reserve along with credit extended with the help of certain liquidity facilities of the Federal Reserve (Ahelegbey, Billio & Casarin, 2016). Open market operation helps to change the quantity of non-borrowed reserves through decreasing the supply of reserves by selling in open market. Figure 1: Open market sales
3ECONOMICS ASSIGNMENT Source: (created by author) According to figure 1, an open market sale reduces the reserve supply, that is R1 from R* and consequently increases the federal funds rate from If* to If1. Thus, non-borrowing reserve decreases open market selling. Answer 2: Excess reserve (er) ratio is the ratio between excess reserve (ER) to demand deposits (D), that is, er = ER/ D. Moreover, the currency-deposit ratio (c) represents the ratio between currency (C) with demand deposits (D), that is, c= C/D. During Great Depression, money supply decreased significantly and this in turn led the economy into depression. Consequently, deposits in bank decreased and the amount of currencyinhandincreased(Blanchard&Summers,2017).Moreover,mostofthe commercial banks kept excess reserves enable. This implied ER and C increased compare to demand deposits. Those phenomenons had led the excess reserve ratio and currency-deposit ratio to increase further. Money supply has negative relation with currency holdings and the amount of excess reserves of banks. Hence, during depression, money supply decreased as C and ER increased. During this season, money base increased while money multiplier fell due to increase in excess-reserve ratio (er) and currency-deposit (c) ratio (Goodhart, Bartsch & Ashworth, 2016). Monetary base (MB) is the sum total of checkable deposits (D), excess reserve (ER) and currency (C) this value increases positive, that is, MB= C+D+ER. On the other side, the equation of money multiplier (m) is : m= (1+c)/ (rr+er+c). Hence, er and c have opposite relation with money supply.
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4ECONOMICS ASSIGNMENT Answer 3: Short-run nominal exchange rate (En) measures the relative price of two different currencies. For instance, nominal exchange rate of the U.S ($) for pound (£) is : En= £/ $ .. (1) According to the above equation, increase in nominal exchange rate implies that each dollar can purchase more pounds and hence dollar has appreciated. Suppose, Ee(t+1)is the expected exchange rate at (t+1) timeand Etis the expected exchange rate for t time (Verdelhan, 2018). Hence, Ee(t+1)> Etmeasures that the dollar is going to appreciate while pound is going to depreciate by same amount. Hence, expected return rate of return regarding holding dollars relative to pound is: (Ee(t+1)- Et)/ Et. If the central bank increases expected interest rates on the current nominal exchange rate on domestic asset then the domestic saver invests in this asset to yield higher expected return, in terms of domestic currency (Arteta, Kose, Stocker & Taskin, 2018). Suppose, the investor may receive domestic nominal interest rate based on time t and this can be denoted as it. On the others side, Moreover, foreign nominal interest rate at time t can be denoted as if,t. If the investor invests in foreign market, then the rate o return can be if,t-(Ee(t+1)- Et)/ Et Hence, the equilibrium condition is : it= if,t-(Ee(t+1)- Et)/ Et...(2) This condition is called interest rate parity (Chinn & Zhang, 2018). This situation can be drawn with the help of following diagram. Here the concept of the relative rate of return (REL) is required: REL = it– [if,t-(Ee(t+1)- Et)/ Et]....(3) In this figure, REL varies negatively with Et. REL has increasing relation with it, decreasing relation with if,t.
5ECONOMICS ASSIGNMENT E Et OREL it – [if,t-(Ee(t+1) - Et)/ Et] Figure 2: Interest rate parity when REL is zero Source: (created by author) Answer 4: a) The central bank, through exchange rate intervention, changes holding of foreign exchange based on asset side of the bank’s balance sheet along with changes in circulation of currency. For currency depreciation, the central bank can sells certain amount of foreign exchange in return for domestic currency (Donnery, Doran, Gleeson & Carroll, 2017). Moreover, the concerned bank can adjust its balance sheet by subtracting this amount from both assets and liabilities. This further may decrease the monetary base. This system is called unsterilized exchange rate intervention, where monetary base is changed. b) Under sterilized exchange rate intervention, the central bank intends to change the exchange rate while monetary base has remained unchanged. This process has two stages, where in the first stage the bank sells certain amount in foreign exchange (Villamizar‐ Villegas*, & Perez‐Reyna, 2017). In the second stage, this specified bank offsets the first step that has impacts on monetary base. Hence, in both assets and liabilities of the balance sheet, this amount is added and subtracted and consequently monetary base remains same.
6ECONOMICS ASSIGNMENT CA (e) S(r1) – I (r1)OS(r0) – I (r0)Current account e1 e0 Answer 5: a) Real exchange rates represent the amount of domestic goods and services that can be exchanged for obtaining goods and services of foreign country. During recession, the government increases its deficit spending through decreasing its savings (Bordo et al., 2017). This further can influence the real exchange rate, current account and capita finance. Here, current account function can be described as the function of the real exchange rate, that is, CA(e). The equilibrium equation for determining real exchange rate is : S(r) – I (r) = CA (e) This relation, drawn from credit market helps to represent the impact of increasing deficit spending through shifting S(r) – I(r) to the left and this consequently help the real exchange rate to increase further. Figure 3: Real exchange rate Source: (created by author) In the above figure, the current account shifts from S (r0) – I (r0) to S (r1) – I (r1) and consequently, real exchange has increased from e0 to e1.
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7ECONOMICS ASSIGNMENT b) Purchasing power parity (PPP) describes that the exchange rate between two nations and the ratio of their currencies’ respective purchasing power are same in the absence of any trade barriers (Chia, Lim & Ong, 2014). In long-run, the cost for purchasing any product with same amount in domestic currency and with foreign currency is same without any arbitrage profit opportunity. c) In short-run, current account (CA) is a function of real exchange rate and this has a negative slope (Rogoff, 2017). J-curve shows that domestic goods can be cheaper compare to the foreign one, if exchange rate decreases and this further influence to increase exports and decrease of import. Hence, current account can be in surplus. Answer 6: a) In the given game, the Nash equilibrium occurs at outcome B, when financial institutions can take high risk while the Fed takes strategy to bail out those firms. However, the first-best outcome is C, where fed takes strategy to no bail out and financial institutions take their corresponding strategy to take risks (Salimans et al., 2016). However, it is not the Nash equilibrium. b) The financial institutions take higher risks for the Fed’s strategy to bail out. However, during recession, those institutions may fail (Salimans et al., 2016). At this situation, the policy announcement of the Fed regarding no longer bail out can push the economy towards an adverse situation. Hence, it is not time consistent but not credible at time of recession. Nash equilibrium can help the Fed to obtain its time consistent and credible policy from where it can pick the most required strategy. Answer 7: a) The reserve demand (Rd) curve of the Fed depends on the excess reserve ratio and the required reserve ratio. As the Rd shifts randomly, the Fed can conduct monetary policy by targeting either the quantity of reserve or the federal Funds rate. Under the Channel-Corridor
8ECONOMICS ASSIGNMENT Demand and supply of domestic currency Nominal exchange rate Supply of currency Demand for currency Fixed exchange rate approach, the Federal Reserve has started to pay interest on reserves and this rate is low compare to the targeted federal funds rate (Fashae & Olusola, 2017). Consequently, it creates a floor below which the federal funds rate cannot fall. b) As monetary policy is tight, the Fed can apply Channel-Corridor approach, where no procyclical monetary policy is required (Fashae & Olusola, 2017). Moreover, this approach may help the bank to eliminate any volatility occurred by targeting a variable and Poole problem. Answer 8: a) To maintain the fixed exchange rate, the government of this small country can apply open market trading through purchasing or selling its domestic currency on the open market. For this, the country needs to reserve foreign currencies (Bech & Keister,2017). If the nominal exchange rate goes above the targeted fixed rate, then the government can sell its own currency while for the opposite situation, it can purchase its own currency. Figure 4: Fixed exchange rate Source: (created by author)
9ECONOMICS ASSIGNMENT E Ef OREL it – [if,t-(Ee(t+1) - Et)/ Et] b) When foreign nominal interest rates increase relative to the domestic one, the government can raise its domestic interest rate to maintain fixed exchange rate for maintain relative rate of return ( REL)=0 at fixed exchange rate. Figure 5: Fixed exchange rate when REL =0 Source: (created by author) c) Under long run, credit market equilibrium refers the expected real interest rates to be equal all over the country. Long-run dynamics regarding exchange rate is based on the differences in the growth of real output and difference in the growth rates related to money supply (Brunnermeier, & Sannikov, 2015). Those factors have positive relationship. The government needs to maintain its domestic interest rate for maintaining fixed exchange rate. d) Over-valued currency means the equilibrium exchange rate (Ee) is lower compare to the official fixed exchange rate (E0), that is, Ee< E0. This cannot sustain in the long run. Answer 9: a)Under the traditional monetary policy, decreasing real rate of interest can stimulate the aggregate demand through increasing investments and decreasing savings as well (Ihrig, Meade & Weinbach, 2015). This in turn can increase the consumption of the country and positively influence the real side of the economy to increase further.
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10ECONOMICS ASSIGNMENT b) Various types of unconventional monetary policies are quantitative easing, credit easing, signaling and forward guidance (Neely, 2015).Different forms of assets, for instance, treasury securities, federal agency debt influence the balance sheet of the Fed. However, the overall Fed assets level has remained relatively constant due to increase in long term holding.
11ECONOMICS ASSIGNMENT References: Ahelegbey, D. F., Billio, M., & Casarin, R. (2016). Bayesian graphical models for structural vector autoregressive processes.Journal of Applied Econometrics,31(2), 357-386. Arteta, C., Kose, M. A., Stocker, M., & Taskin, T. (2018). Implications of negative interest rate policies: An early assessment.Pacific Economic Review,23(1), 8-26. Bech, M., & Keister, T. (2017). Liquidity regulation and the implementation of monetary policy.Journal of Monetary Economics,92, 64-77. Blanchard, O., & Summers, L. (2017, October). Rethinking Stabilization Policy: Back to the Future.InRethinkingMacroeconomicPolicyConference,PetersonInstitutefor International Economics, October(pp. 12-13). Bordo, M. D., Choudhri, E. U., Fazio, G., & MacDonald, R. (2017). The real exchange rate in the long run: Balassa-Samuelson effects reconsidered.Journal of International Money and Finance,75, 69-92. Brunnermeier, M. K., & Sannikov, Y. (2015). International credit flows and pecuniary externalities.American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics,7(1), 297-338. Chia, R. C. J., Lim, S. Y., & Ong, S. L. (2014). Long-run validity of purchasing power parity andcointegrationanalysisforlowincomeAfricancountries.Economics Bulletin,34(3), 1438-1447. Chinn, M. D., & Zhang, Y. (2018). Uncovered Interest Parity and Monetary Policy Near and Far from the Zero Lower Bound.Open Economies Review,29(1), 1-30. Donnery, S., Doran, D., Gleeson, R., & Carroll, K. (2017). Non-standard Monetary Policy Measures and the Balance Sheets of Eurosystem Central Banks.Quarterly Bulletin Articles, 79-94.
12ECONOMICS ASSIGNMENT Fashae, O., & Olusola, A. O. (2017). Landuse Types within Channel Corridor and River ChannelMor-phologyofRiverOna,Ibadan,Nigeria.IndonesianJournalof Geography,49(2), 111-117. Goodhart, C., Bartsch, E., & Ashworth, J. (2016). Central banks and credit creation: the transmission channel via the banks matters.Sveriges Riksbank Economic Review,3, 55-68. Ihrig, J. E., Meade, E. E., & Weinbach, G. C. (2015). Rewriting Monetary Policy 101: What's the Fed'sPreferredPost-CrisisApproach to Raising InterestRates?.Journal of Economic Perspectives,29(4), 177-98. Ihrig, J. E., Meade, E. E., & Weinbach, G. C. (2015). Rewriting Monetary Policy 101: What's the Fed'sPreferredPost-CrisisApproach to Raising InterestRates?.Journal of Economic Perspectives,29(4), 177-98. Neely, C. J. (2015). Unconventional monetary policy had large international effects.Journal of Banking & Finance,52, 101-111. Rogoff, K. (2017). Dealing with Monetary Paralysis at the Zero Bound.Journal of Economic Perspectives,31(3), 47-66. Salimans, T., Goodfellow, I., Zaremba, W., Cheung, V., Radford, A., & Chen, X. (2016). Improved techniques for training gans. InAdvances in Neural Information Processing Systems(pp. 2234-2242). Verdelhan, A. (2018). The share of systematic variation in bilateral exchange rates.The Journal of Finance,73(1), 375-418. Villamizar‐Villegas*, M., & Perez‐Reyna, D. (2017). A theoretical approach to sterilized foreign exchange intervention.Journal of Economic Surveys,31(1), 343-365.
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