El Niño and La Niña: Tracing the Dance of Ocean and Atmosphere

EL- NIÑO AND LA NIÑA: TRACING THE DANCE OF OCEAN AND ATMOSPHERE
Summary
Weather changes have been a major occurrence since ages in the past and have led to
different results which h affect the human activities and lives. To predict the future weather
condition requires a lot of information and passing it over distances. Satellites, commercial
airlines and ships nowadays have enhanced the information collection. Nevertheless, with all the
advances in technology on weather predicts, it is only possible to accurately predict the weather
only a few days in advance. This makes it hard to the meteorologists to predict the onset of
climatic events such as El-Niño phase of ENSO several months before it happens. It is argued
that the main drive of the climate change is on the heating and the cooling of the tropical Pacific
Ocean. This makes the atmosphere and the oceans the main drivers of the global heating. The
information of the subsurface temperature is believed to be vital in climatic predictions. For
proper El-Niño correct and accurate prediction can be achieved by understanding of the
subsurface temperatures especially on some parts of tropical Pacific Ocean and thus help in
proper prediction months earlier.
The El-Niño puzzle started with key observations made through the study of the
atmosphere parameters by Sir Gilbert Walker. In his study of the atmospheric temperature,
pressure and rainfall data for about 40 years led to the conclusion that when the atmospheric
pressure was high on eastern Southern Pacific and Indian Ocean, the pressure was low on the
other opposite region. The pressure difference between the two regions which he named as the
seesaw patterns were concluded to cause the availability of a lot of rains in India or even the
drought. Nevertheless, Walker was unable to identify the physical processes which led to the

Southern Oscillation. Much of the research on the same increased in 1957 with the wake of first
satellite to study the atmosphere parameters.
Later Jacob Bjerknes was able to identify that the difference in sea temperatures was able
to cause the difference in pressures in the two regions. The movement of the wind were
determined by the difference in temperature and pressures. These winds are able to result to the
climate events happening. In order to find the predictability of the Jacobs research, computer
modeling was invented in the 1950s. The use of atmospheric general circulation models
(AGCMs) for atmospheric simulation was started in 1970s. the model is able to monitor
atmospheric parameters changes in layers. Additionally, the study of the Ocean parameters could
not be ignored on the contribution of the El-Niño happening. Proper monitoring of the ocean
parameters was less during the study by Jacob. The strong trade winds were found to be
responsible in pushing the warm surface water to the west along the Equator and pilling it against
Indonesia. This leads to the increase of the seal level in Western Pacific and thus creating the
thermocline, which is the interface between the warm surface water and the cold deep ocean. The
thermocline is able to lie near the surface. According to Wyrtki, when the trade wind fails, warm
waves are released from west to east across Pacific Ocean and this pushes thermocline much
deeper. Sea surface temperature is able to rise in the east. With such delay, Wyrtki was able to
recognize the potential prediction of such events in advance. Ocean parameters such as Pacific
displays a periodic, although irregular, character involving a complex interplay of waves,
currents as well as undercurrents are associated with ENSO. In 1970s, the use of models to
predict what goes on ocean began. Simulation of what happened with different air temperatures
was carried out. The models showed that changes in the winds in western Pacific were able to
lead to changes in eastern pacific sea level and resulted to El-Niño. Continuous measurement of