El Niño–Southern Oscillation

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Thesis(El Nino Southern oscillation impact on CerealProduction in South Africa)
Table of ContentsTHESIS STATEMENT..................................................................................................................1INTRODUCTION...........................................................................................................................12.0 LITERATURE REVIEW......................................................................................................92.1 El-Nino Southern Oscillation & Antarctic Oscillation........................................................92.2 ENSO impact on South African climate and rainfall..........................................................132.3 ENSO impact on Cereal production in South Africa..........................................................182.4 Relationship between ENSO and food security..................................................................253.0 DATA AND METHODS......................................................................................................263.1 Panel Econometrics.............................................................................................................263.2 The Econometric Model:.................................................................................................264.0 Results......................................................................................................................................304.1 ENSO impact on Maize......................................................................................................30REFERENCES.............................................................................................................................33
THESIS STATEMENTEl Nino Southern oscillation impact on Cereal Production in South Africa.INTRODUCTIONEl Nino- Southern Oscillation is considered as an irregular periodic variation in sea andwinds surface temperature over the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean, which significantly affectingclimate of much of the tropics and subtropics. The heating stage of the sea temperature is calledas El Nino and the cooling phase known as La Nina. The southern Oscillation is refers as theatmospheric element of a single wide scale coupled interaction known as the Ei Nino SouthernOscillation (ENSO). In the recent scenario the phases of climate change and anomalouscondition have become a major global concern. Within a large scale of various possibleconsequences of climate anomalies, within the time duration of one-year variability ofagriculture crop production, hence crop yield, is significantly remarkable, as it is directlyimpacted through weather conditions in all environments. This cause through the intrinsicinfluence of weather on the plant generative and vegetative growth period. Agriculture is consistto be the essential sector of economy which helps in providing various benefits to the economy.Climatic factor has a direct influence on economic performance is commonsensical at variouslevel of production supply, marketing, economic growth, health and social unrest. There is aneffective relationship arises among the different effect of climate and crops production and pricesof different food products. As per the activity of agriculture and decision making it is requiredfor agriculture department to consider all information regarding climate factors as to buildingeffective temporary economic policy. Some effective strategies are there which are significant tocope with variability risk of climate such as storage facilities, crop insurance, tax, croppingpattern variation and subsidies policies. Southern Oscillation is an effective atmosphericcomponent, in oceanography and climatology a consistent inter-annual fluctuation ofatmospheric forces over the tropical Indo-Pacific region. The element of the Southern Oscillationat a described point in time may be understood through applying the Southern Oscillation Index,which helps in determining the difference in atmospheric pressure around Australia andIndonesia with that of the east-central South Pacific.El Nino Southern Oscillation:El Nino is considered as a periodic weather pattern which is caused through a fluctuationin sea surface temperature across the equatorial pacific Ocean. The heat water changes the1
superimposed the atmosphere which affects the weather conditions in different parts of theglobe. El Nino situations are presently available but are likely to abate during late northernhemisphere spring on early summer in 2016. Mainly different regions are facing negativeinfluence of El Nino and also experiencing decreasing rainfall, which may postponement ofplanting, affects crop maturation or cut down the viability of pasture lands. Thus, the impact ofEl Nino alter substantially and some regions may experience weather which is significantly moreappropriator through for the production of agriculture. However the agriculture effects of ElNino is significantly related to the shocks which are based on the timing, a particular durationand strength of the El Nino. The welfare of economic is also based on the domestic food, safetyand trade policies of essential importer and exporter. Impermanent production setbacks byprevious years El Nino event are arising in regards of positive long term trends in the world foodproduction. Worldwide trend in cereals production have represents sustained growth and over thelast few years have led to a development of global food reserves. The total cereal production isproposed to be around 1.3 percent which is lower than the last few years, it is still 2.2 percentwhich is more than the average of previous three years and the short-well of this particular yearis covered by stocks. Thus the negative localized affect over the globe could be important in theabsence of the market linkage and trade openness.The impact of El Nino in drought in South AfricaThe El Nino element is one of the essential element which arising drought in SouthAfrica. In any situation El Nino available in the pacific Ocean, rainfall is mainly limited duringthe season of summer whereas the normal rainfall needs to be anticipated during winter andspring. The keeping up and forecast of atmosphere instigated varieties in Harvest yields, creationand fare costs in real nourishment delivering districts, it has turned out to be dynamicallyfundamental to empower national government in import-subordinate nations to guaranteesupplies of moderate sustenance for purchasers, in which individuals from bring down pay areincluded. The high dependability of seasonal El Nino southern Oscillation forecasts theinterconnection between global yield with ENSO phase has a significant advantages to foodhandling and calamity early warning systems. The El Nino Southern Oscillation is consist as themost essential coupled ocean atmosphere element to cause world's climate variability oninterlingual period of time. However the phenomenon is connected to the quasi-periodicredistribution of heat around tropical pacific. ENSO is divided through a varying shift among a2
neutral phase and two extreme element such as El Nino and La Nina. The El Nino component isshows through a deep layer of warm ocean water around the east-central equatorial pacific, withsea surface temperature generally 1.5 to 2.0 degree average. On the other side La Nina is consistas a interlinked condition are opposed to the phase of El Nino: a wide layer of cooler thanaverage ocean temperature around the east central equatorial pacific through sea-surfaceenvironment generally 1.0 to 2.0 degree which is below the average. ENSO is considered as astrong phenomenon of inter-annual climate variability in different countries in Africa, Asia andin North and South America. In the time duration of El Nino connected cliamte anomalies areknown as interconnections are felt on the far side of the pacific region involving regional landand sea surface warming, changes in storm, attacks and changes in precipitation patterns. ElNino is also a local warming of surface water which takes place in the entire circle zone of thecentral and eastern Pacific ocean of the Peruvian coast and which impacted the atmospherecirculation at a global level. It also consist as a recurrent weather component which takes placeapproximately each two to seven years and usually last among 12 to 18 months. It basicallypeaks across Christmas, hence the name of the component El Nino is Spanish for Christ a smallboy. La Nina defines to the cold equivalent of El Nino the girl child.The Antarctic OscillationThe report contents the study about various elements which all are connected with theterm of El Nino Southern Oscillation. The Antarctic Oscillation, Southern Annular or highlatitude mode is the dominant pattern of tropospheric circulation variability south of 20 degreeand is divided by the pressure anomalies of one sign centred in the Antarctic and anomalies ofthe opposite sign centred around 40 to 50 degree. The western, coastal region of south Africaacquire most of its rainfall during the austral winter. On the other part of of subtropical SouthernAfrica are consistently defined through summer rainfall. Despite the value of the winter rainfallto the local economy and its pronounced inter-annual variability, reliability little investigation onthe climate of the region has been conducted. Most of the winter rainfall is created through coldfronts and associated extra-tropical cyclones, but other prevailing westerly activity like as cut oflows, may on occasion also create essential rainfall over the region. The another area of thisparticular research is based on the impact of ENSO on South African climate and rainfall , thisalso consist as a vast concept, south Africa receives most of its rainfall in Austral summer whichis expected through a valid and reliable region in the South west which experiences austral3
winter rainfall. It is an essential term as rainfall maxima are recorded through the month of mayto August, in this duration the track of the temperate weather system is going to shiftednorthward. The southwester region is encompasses part of western and Northern Cape Provincesis vast in the easy through the cold Benguela upwelling system and to the south, at a distancefrom the warm Agulhas Current. Orography performs an essential role in the Cape foldedMountains that stretch northward to the west and east-west to the south favour. A plethora ofstudies suggest that in the course of the ongoing climate change, catastrophic weather events aremore likely. In turn, extreme weather conditions in many parts of the world are associated with amedium–frequency1 climate anomaly known as El Niño-Southern Oscillation, or simply ENSO.“The most dramatic, most energetic, and best defined pattern of inter-annual variability is theglobal set of climatic anomalies referred to as 1 i.e., cyclical behaviour that repeats itself everyseveral years. 2 (El Niño and the Southern Oscillation) ENSO”. There is a successful relationshipemerges among the diverse impact of atmosphere and harvests creation and costs of variousnourishment items. According to the movement of horticulture and basic leadership it is requiredfor agribusiness division to consider all data seeing atmosphere factors as to building viabletransitory monetary strategy. Some powerful methodologies are there which are huge to adapt tofluctuation danger of atmosphere, for example, storerooms, trim protection, assess, editingdesign variety and appropriations arrangements. Southern Wavering is a viable air part, inoceanography and climatology a reliable between yearly change of environmental powers overthe tropical Indo-Pacific district. The component of the Southern Swaying at a depicted point intime might be comprehended through applying the Southern Wavering File, which helps indeciding the distinction in climatic weight around Australia and Indonesia with that of the east-focal South Pacific.El Nino Southern Oscillation and the crops production in South AfricaThe southern Africa is probable to be an essentially influenced through the changewhich will be arises in the future climate with the significant atmosphere change projection forthe region which indicates the temperature as well as evapotranspiration are supposed to developin the 21stcentury. Food is consist to be the fundamental need of individual and people work asto satisfying their needs and wants through consuming goods and services as per theirpreference. Climate has a huge impact on the crops and yields. The measure of production hasgo very crucial and mandate for the federal government to defend the farmers and the agriculture4
community by the risk of weather and helps to design some plans and policies which are relatedto the security of food. Even though the prediction accuracy of various forecast models hasdeveloped in the recent period of time. It consist as a big challenge to based on a n individualmodel provide its incertitude and its crucial nature including various global and regional weatheroscillation system. Africa is the most developing country and focused on increasing itseconomical condition through attaining higher growth and success. It is essential for eachcountry to maintain appropriate flow of crops as to developing the living standard of peoplewithin the country. There is not any significant relationship among the El Nino SouthernOscillation and the crops production but it is mainly trouble the seasonal rainfall, which is anessential parameter that affects the crop yield as a out come. Fluctuation in climate is likely toalter the magnitude, timing and distribution of storms which create flood events and the intensityand frequency of drought situations. Africa has existing critical vulnerabilities which mayexasperate the impact of likely the weather change in most sector in regards to the significantdependence on the natural environment for better living, food and other important factors. It isessential for each individual to have an appropriate understanding about the conditions of climatechanges and their possible influence on the culture and society . However it is important in thecrucial sector in southern Africa as to develop strategic adaptation consequence. The presentresearch work will discuss about the impact on El Nino by applying panel econometrics on theeffective cereal crops and quantify its effect in various provinces of the South Africa whichwould provide advantage to the policy makers as to create the mitigation plan and insurers andre-insurers to outspread its risk and bad consequences adequately over a country.Reason for choosing the topic:The research into consideration is based onEl Nino Southern oscillation impact onCereal Production in South Africa. The specified area of study helps the learner in developingtheir skills and knowledge in the area of climate and the impact of climate change on the growthof agriculture department. The major reason behind choosing the topic is that is consist to be aserious issue of which has a huge influence on the agriculture. Food is consist to be the essentialkey element of climate. A year of not enough or too much rainfall, a hot spell or cold catch in awrong time period, or high range of flooding and storms can have an appropriate impact on localcrop yields and placental mammal production. Agriculture is one of the major sector at the coreof economic development. Underpinning food systems, agriculture activities constitute an5
indispensable pillar of sustainable growth and development. This is considerably true in the caseof south Africa where as the social, economic and environmental opportunities of potentialagriculture are yet to be fully victimized or exploited. Over the last few decades, agriculture hasbeen considered as the drastic economic and social development in the country. The change inclimate has a direct influence on the environment, social and economic condition of agriculture.As per the data of world bank carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) emergence is now about 60percent which is considerably higher than the level of 1990's and its rapidly increasing about 2.5percent per year and it cause various issues which has direct of indirect influence on the living ofpeople. The major reason of rising the level of CO2e emission is the rapid growth which arises inpopulation as the high growth in population cause negative impact on the economic growth andsuccess. It is essential for intergovernmental panel on climate change to manage worldspopulation as it impacts on increasing temperature from 3.7 °C to 4.8 °C and climate changecause a huge threat to South Africa's water sources, food security, health, ecosystem services,biodiversity and infrastructure. The agriculture in South Africa experiences various kind of riskwhich are associated through change arises in climate such as rainfall patters, highertemperature, increased evaporation rates, developing pests and diseases and changes in diseasesand pest distribution ranges, decreasing yield and spatial shift in optimum developing regions.The emission of these kind of risks calls for imperative, aspiring action needs to be taken bygovernment as to ensure the elasticity of South Africa’s agricultural sector by adaptation toclimate change impacts. Global warming has become one of the major challenge in respect tohandling the global food security. The present research reviews the influence of the climatechange on food, crops and its production on sub-Saharan African Countries. An appropriateknowledge about these studies are effective for economic growth of countries. The specified areaof study provides a brief description about the impact of El Nino Southern Oscillation whichconsist to be a major issue of economy.Research AimThis consist to be an effective part of research work as this section helps the researcher inproviding an effective direction as to implementing all research activities into well planned andeffective manner. The significant aim of this research is to analysing the issue of research inappropriate manner in order to overcome with the issue in effective way. It can be described inthe form of small statement in which the issue of research is mentioned and it provides a clear6
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