Influenza Virus | Project Proposal

Project Proposal
Scarlett, Qing Sun
#215320302
Introduction
Influenza, also known as flu, is a respiratory infectious disease, as well as a global threat to
humans due to the fact it can be transmitted by having direct contact with infected people and
the contaminated objects, as well as the droplets in the air (i.e people’s cough and sneeze).
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has pointed out that people infected with
influenza can transmit the pathogen to others up to about 6 feet away2. Nevertheless, after the
virus enters human body, it normally takes 2-4 days for the symptoms to begin1. It also stated
that "you may be able to pass on the flu to someone else before you know you are sick, as
well as while you are sick. Some people may not show any symptoms after being infected by
a flu virus.
During this time, those people may still spread the virus to others."
According to the article “A Roadmap for Influenza Research”, published by Viktor Müller,
“the influenza viruses are characterized by segmented, negative-strand RNA genomes
requiring an RNA-dependent RNA polymerase of viral origin for replication. The particular
structure of the influenza virus genome and function of its viral proteins enable antigenic drift
and antigenic shift.’ Very small changes based on the genetic makeup of the influenza strains
have been found to be referred as antigenic drift. However, when a flu strain mutates to a very
high extent, major changes occurs in the antigenic determinants which results in an antigenic
shift.
Moreover, studies and statistics have suggested that flu are constantly changing every
different each year. This is the reason why doctors and experimental scientists need to
develop new drugs, vaccines and adjuvant to help us prevent from getting infected. An article
has suggested that there are between 291,000 and 646,000 people worldwide are being killed
by flu each year.
Modelling:

figure 1 modelling from “A Roadmap for Influenza Research”
figure 2 modelling from “A Roadmap for Influenza Research”

Figure 3 from “Modeling influenza epidemics and pandemics”
Figure 4 from "Viral Kinetic Modeling: State of the Art"

Figure 5 from "Influenza interaction with co-circulating pathogens and its impact on
surveillance, pathogenesis, and epidemic profile"

The 4 figures (6,7,8 and 9 I labeled) above , from "Mathematical Analysis of Influenza A
Dynamics in the Emergence of Drug Resistance" indicates how drug resistance can affect
people who got infected by flu.
Figure 6 Figure 7
Figure 8 Figure 9

I am going to propose a model of influenza spread based on the world population (i.e virus
speed), indicating the duration of the sickness, the population of the people who get infected
and the
Figure 10
Figure 9