Exploring Decision-Making Theories and Techniques

The provided content consists of a collection of academic papers and resources related to decision analytics, decision making, and management. The papers cover various topics such as cultural values and ethical decision-making, patient preferences for medical treatment, multiple attribute decision-making, neural and neurochemical basis of reinforcement-guided decision-making, and more. Additionally, the content includes books on decision support systems and reviews on employing multi-criteria decision-making methods for supplier selection. Overall, the papers provide insights into various aspects of decision analytics, including cognitive biases, behavioral economics, and organizational performance.

BUSINESS DECISION
MAKING

TABLE OF CONTENTS
INTRODUCTION...........................................................................................................................1
TASK 1............................................................................................................................................1
1.1 Create a plan for the collection of primary and secondary data for a given business
problem........................................................................................................................................1
1.2 Present the survey methodology & sampling frame used......................................................3
1.3 Design a questionnaire...........................................................................................................4
TASK 2............................................................................................................................................6
2.1 Creating information for decision making.............................................................................6
2.2 Analyzing results to draw valid conclusion...........................................................................8
2.3 Measures of dispersion........................................................................................................10
2.4 Calculating quartile, percentile and correlation co-efficient...............................................11
TASK 3..........................................................................................................................................12
3.1 Presenting graphs by using spreadsheets.............................................................................12
3.2 Creating trend line to forecast future events........................................................................13
3.3 Preparation of business presentation....................................................................................14
3.4 Preparation of formal business report..................................................................................14
TASK 4..........................................................................................................................................15
4.1 Using appropriate software for information processing......................................................15
4.2 Preparation of a project plan for an activity and determine the critical path.......................16
4.3 Using financial tools for the purpose of investment decisions............................................18
CONCLUSION..............................................................................................................................19
REFERENCES..............................................................................................................................20

INTRODUCTION
Business is constantly changing with the external market difficulties impose as a threat
on an enterprise. Black friar's restaurant has been selected for the given project report that helps
in assessing its present resources in order to take important decisions. This project is al about
preparing data collection plan and survey methodology in order to find evidences to support the
aim of the business. This report also stresses o using statistical estimates such as mean, median
and mode in order to test the arithmetical accuracy as these are regarded as parameters of
research study. The information are conveyed to all the external party using appropriate chats
and figures. The capital evaluation techniques are used to select r reject appropriate project for an
entity.
TASK 1
1.1 Create a plan for the collection of primary and secondary data for a given business problem
The current research study is conducted in order to gather information related to the tastes
and preferences of all the customers who are currently enjoying the services of a restaurant. The
customer satisfaction is regarded as important tool which can be used by an enterprise owner in
order to achieve higher target of sales and the revenue within a give deadline. The timely
completion of all the goal is important in order to deliver all the services early as compared to all
the competitors exist in the same working environment. There are various factors on which the
complete study is based upon includes customer preferences in visiting the restaurants, quality of
service, location preferred by an entity.
The current study will be helpful for Black friar restaurant in building strong fundamental
in their business. The data can be collected by the researcher who emphasises on the major aim
of the business. Achieving higher customers satisfactions the basic aim of an entity owner to
retain all the loyal and trust worthy customers. The sampling frame will be adopted that helps in
collecting relevant data to suit the business needs and higher expectations of the external market.
Primary collection of data- The primary research organizes by an entity includes connecting all
the data related to the aim of the business personally by the researcher personally appointed for
the purpose. Questionnaire is regarded as important source of collecting primary data in which
questions are asked by the researchers by filling out he answers of the respondents. Open and
end questions are included in the questionnaires in satisfying all the needs and the expectations
1

of all the customers. Various factors which needs to be used by an individual in the data
generation process includes extracting worst and best data out of the total population. The data
collected through this particular method are highly reliable and accurate. The validity of the
collected data will be checked by verifying its accuracy. The collected data are checked with the
aim o the business in order to test its skills in generating final outcome of the business entity.
The current aim of an entity is yo open new restaurant after analyzing all the factors that are
creating burden for the business in achieving all their aims and targets.
Secondary collection of data- It is another important technique of collecting data which is also
recognized as external mode of generating data for the business. The data can be generated by
accessing new articles, magazines, books and journals. In this mode of collection of data the
information will be gathered by an entity are less reliable as compared the raw information
collected through the primary means of collection of data. In this approach the researcher will
review the published data collected by someone one else as this is regarded as time saving
method. This method saves the time, energy and least expensive method in obtaining right
information in order to achieve the desired aims and objectives of the business. The sources from
which secondary can be collected for black friars includes census survey details. The census
survey and government records will be helpful for black friar restaurant in knowing the income
level of all the people living in the London. Budget level is essential to know as this helps in
designing products or services according to the current budget level of all the customers living in
the London.
1.2 Present the survey methodology & sampling frame used
Survey methodology is regarded as important technique in collecting important
information in order to achieve the desired aims and targets of an enterprise. The survey is the
important step in the process of research study in which samples will be selected in order to
conduct the study to accomplish the desired aims and the objectives of an entity. Survey is that
important process involved in the research study in which accurate samples are selected in order
to consider each and every factors in improving the services delivered by an entity to the variety
of customers of the business. For the given case study, questionnaire technique of survey
methodology has been used wherein, a well structured questionnaire will be constructed
comprising all the necessary set of questions to taste the consumer desires, preferences, price
2

sensitiveness and other factors so as to open a new branch of Blackfriars restaurant. It will be
sent through online source so as to generate quick responses of all the selected participants.
Random sampling technique will be use which is non-probability sampling technique in
data will be collected out of the determined samples. In this method, a sample of 100 existing
consumers of Blackfriars restaurant is selected randomly. Thus, the method is of great
importance to eliminate any kind of selection biasness and considered as representative sample
for the entire universe. In this particular approach, the information will be collected by an
individual according to their own choice. The statistical surveys are conducted in which the
different set of information is tested on various parameters such as quality, customer satisfaction.
Total samples of 100 customers are taken into consideration in order test the accuracy of
the information. Samples selected out of the total universe will be helpful in generating the final
outcome by an enterprise.
1.3 Design a questionnaire
QUESTIONNAIRE
Name-
What is your gender?
Male
Female
Transgender
How old are you?
 10- 20 years old
 20-25 years old
 25-35 years old
 35 years old and above
Do you know anything about your nearby restaurants?
 Yes
 No
How often you visit to a restaurant?
 Once in a week
3

 Once in a month
 Sometime
 Rarely
What is your favorite place in London you like to spend time?
 Oxford street
 West field London
 Regent street
 Bond street
How much you spend on your first visit to the restaurant?
 5-10
 10-15
 15-25
 25-30
What are the factors influence your decision while spending in the restaurants?
 Price
 Quality of service
 Ambiance
 Hygiene factor
I like the services provided by restaurant.
 Strongly agree
 agree
 Neutral
 disagree
Prices charged by the restaurant is affordable.
 Always
 Sometime
 Rarely
Hygienic measures are adopted by restaurants in order to attract customers.
 Yes
4

 No
How much time do you wait for your order in a restaurant?
 2 minutes
 5 minutes
 10 minutes
How frequently menu of the restaurant changes?
 Once in a week
 Once in a month
 Rarely
 Never
Please give your suggestions in improving the business_____________________________
TASK 2
2.1 Creating information for decision making
Sales and profit figure of Blackfrias restaurant from the period of 2007 to 2016 are as follows:
Year Sales Profit
2007 1300 180
2008 1350 220
2009 1400 280
2010 1480 320
2011 1380 275
2012 1550 350
2013 1680 420
2014 1750 480
2015 1820 530
2016 1900 560
Total
or sum 15610 3615
5

Sales
Figure
(in £) Profit
Figure
(in £)
Mean 1561 Mean 361.5
Standard Error 67.4858 Standard Error 41.3928
Median 1515 Median 335
Mode #N/A Mode #N/A
Range 600 Range 380
Minimum 1300 Minimum 180
Maximum 1900 Maximum 560
Sum 15610 Sum 3615
Count 10 Count 10
Mean:
Mean = 15610 / 10
= £1561
For median firstly arranging data in ascending order:
Year sales Profit
2007 1300 180
2008 1350 220
2009 1380 275
2010 1400 280
2011 1480 320
2012 1550 350
2013 1680 420
2014 1750 480
2015 1820 530
2016 1900 560
6

Median: (N+1) / 2
= (10 + 1) / 2
= 5.5th term
(5th Item + 6th item) / 2
Sales: (1480 + 1550) / 2
= £1515
Profit: (320 + 350) / 2
= £335
Statistical evaluation of data set presents that, average and median sales of Blackfrias
restaurant were £1561 and £1515 respectively. It shows that mean sales were higher than
compared to median value. Besides this, average profit generated by the restaurant during the
period of 10 years average profit margin earned by the restaurant accounts for £361.5. Whereas,
50% profit margin of data set was related to £335 (Kock and Georg Gemünden, 2016). Hence,
by taking into account the performance of last 10 years it can be stated that restaurant unit has
attained enough sales and profit margin in the last 10 years by offering dinning services to the
customers.
2.2 Analyzing results to draw valid conclusion
Primary data analysis
Theme 1: Customers give more priority to hygiene, quality and ambiance while making selection
of restaurant
Particular
s
No. of
respondents
% of
respondents
Price 4 13%
Quality 8 27%
Hygiene 7 23%
Ambiance 6 20%
Location 5 17%
Total 30 100%
7

Interpretation: From survey, it has been identified that now customers place high level of
emphasis on hygiene, quality and ambiance (Klein, 2016). All these three are the main factors
that have greater influence on the decision making aspect of individuals when they make
selection of restaurant. Further, survey result shows that 17% individuals consider location,
whereas remaining individuals place high level of emphasis on location aspect.
Theme 2: Customers are highly satisfied from the dinning services delivered by Blackfrias
restaurant
Particulars No. of respondents % of respondents
Satisfied 9 30%
Highly satisfied 12 40%
Neutral 7 23%
Dissatisfied 2 7%
Highly dissatisfied - -
Total 30 100%
8

Interpretation: The above mentioned graph presents that customers are highly satisfied from the
dinning or food services offered by Blackfrais restaurant. Majority of the respondents agreed that
high quality services are offered by the restaurant.
2.3 Measures of dispersion
Variance (S2) = average squared deviation of values from mean
Standard deviation (S) = SQRT of variance
Calculation of standard deviation and variance
Year
Sales
(X)
(X –
1561)
(X –
1561)^2 Profit
(Y –
361.5)
(Y –
361.5)2
2007 1300 -261 68121 180 -155 24025
2008 1350 -211 44521 220 -115 13225
2009 1400 -161 25921 280 -55 3025
2010 1480 -81 6561 320 -15 225
2011 1380 -181 32761 275 -60 3600
2012 1550 -11 121 350 15 225
2013 1680 119 14161 420 85 7225
2014 1750 189 35721 480 145 21025
2015 1820 259 67081 530 195 38025
2016 1900 339 114921 560 225 50625
Total or
sum 15610 409890 3615 161225
Variance 45543.3 17133.6
9

Standard
deviation 213.409 130.89
By applying statistical tools, it has found that standard deviation of sales revenue is
£213.0 respectively. On the other side, in the case of profit standard deviation implies for
£130.89. Hence, mean value of sales and profit will deviate from such sales and profit figure in
the near future. Thus, owner of Blackfrias restaurant should frame strategy and policy by keeping
such aspect in mind.
2.4 Calculating quartile, percentile and correlation co-efficient
Quartile and percentile are the most effectual measures which in turn help in making
evaluation of sales and profit aspects. By making evaluation of such measures owner of
restaurant can get deeper insight about the performance level in monetary terms.
Calculation of quartile
Particular
s
Sales
(in £)
Pro
fit
(in
£)
Quartile 1 1385
276
.25
Quartile 2 1550 350
Quartile 3 1767.5
492
.5
Calculation of Percentile
Particular
s
Sales
(in £)
Pro
fit
(in
£)
Quartile 1 1385
276
.25
10

Quartile 2 1550 350
Quartile 3 1767.5
492
.5
By doing analysis of sales performance of each quarter, it has been identified that
restaurant is performing well. Moreover, in the 1st and 2nd quarter sales figure account for £1385
and £1550 respectively. On the other side, in the third quarter sales revenue of Blackfrias
restaurant was £1767.5 significantly. Due to having positive relationship profit margin also
inclined from £276.25 to £492.5 at the end of third quarter. By considering all such aspects it can
be stated that sales and profit performance of Blackfrais restaurant is good.
Correlation co-efficient
Particular
s Sales
Pro
fit
Sales 1 .99
Profit .99 1
Statistical analysis shows that high and positive correlation-ship takes place between
sales and profit margin (Fu and et.al., 2016). Outcome clearly shows that correlation is .99 which
is highly positive and has greater impact on other variables. From evaluation, it has been
evaluated that both the variables such as sales and profit will move in the similar direction. On
the basis of this aspect, if sales will increase then profit will also move in similar pattern or
direction. Hence, by considering this, it can be stated that for enhancing the profit level
Blackfrias restaurant is required to enhance sales by placing emphasis on promotional aspects or
campaign. In this way, by developing awareness among the customers owner of restaurant can
increase sales revenue.
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TASK 3
3.1 Presenting graphs by using spreadsheets
The above mentioned graph presents that from the period of 2007 to 2010 sales revenue
of the restaurant inclined from £1300 to £1480 respectively. However, in 2011 both sales and
profit margin declined which in turn accounts for £1380 & £275 significantly. On the other hand,
revenue of restaurant inclined continuously from £1550 to £1900 (Khani and Rainer, 2016).
Further, graphical presentation also shows that profit margin reached on £560 at the end of
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accounting year 2016. Hence, growing trend has been identified in both sales and profit margin.
Hence, such financial view shows that individuals prefer to visit Blackfrias restaurant more
frequently.
3.2 Creating trend line to forecast future events
Trend line
The above depicted trend line shows that in the upcoming time period sales and profit
will incline in the near future (Fu and et.al., 2016). At the time of making expansion decision
financial aspects are the major concern of business organization. In this, trend line helps in
making evaluation of future growth or pattern. Hence, by making evaluation of trends it has been
assessed that expansion plan is viable for Blackfrias in financial terms.
3.3 Preparation of business presentation
Enclosed in power point presentation.
3.4 Preparation of formal business report
To,
Board of Directors
Blackfrias Restaurant,
Date: 1ts April 2017
Subject: Analysis of future trend or pattern
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Introduction: The present research is carried out with the motive to get information about the
customers preference and satisfaction level towards the services offered by Blackfrias. Hence, it
will highlight the extent to which customers have positive attitude towards the services provided
by the restaurant.
Methodology: In order to assess customer attitude and preferences towards the services offered
by the restaurant primary data has been collected by the scholar via survey. Further, for the
collection of secondary scholarly articles, books as well as company’s financial data has been
evaluated. Further, random sampling technique has been used by the researcher to select 100
customers. Besides this, thematic and statistical analysis has been done to discover suitable
information from primary as well as secondary data set.
Findings: From evaluation it has been assessed that customers have positive attitude towards
the services offered by Blackfrias restaurant. In order to get suitable information data has been
gathered through the means of both primary and secondary sources. Hence, from primary data
investigation it has been identified that customers are highly satisfied from the services which are
delivered by the restaurant. Besides this, secondary data in relation to sales and profit clearly
shows that company’s financial performance is sound. From the period of 2007 to 2016, sales
and profit margin of firm was continuously increased. Along with this, trend line also shows that
in the near future sales and profit figure will incline to the significant level.
Conclusion: By considering the research outcomes it can be stated that plan in relation to
opening of second restaurant will prove to be more fruitful for the firm. Hence, such expansion
plan will make significant contribution in the attainment of organizational goals.
Sincerely
Analyst
TASK 4
4.1 Using appropriate software for information processing
Blackfriars restaurant is planning to open a new branch of restaurant in the London. With
the expansion plan, restaurant will have to make a proper plan regarding operational
management (Ebert, Fisher and Gaither, 2016). With the current era, the use of the latest
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technologies like software is extremely used by the business units for transaction recording and
analysis purpose for smoothen flow of regular activities that are enumerated here as under:
Management Information System (MIS): Basically, it is a software tool that gives
processed information to the superior authority upon which crucial business decisions are based
and strategic and tactic managerial decisions are carried out. This software is really fruitful for
the Blackfriars restaurant that provides essential information to handle and manage daily routine
activities in an efficient way. It facilitates managers in successful planning, controlling &
managing operational functions of the restaurant.
Decision support system (DSS): It is a computer programme application which is helpful
for the middle-level managerial team of the restaurant to compile required set of information
from varied sources and aids in solving business problems and support them in effective and
smarter decisions.
Executive Information System (EIS): It is mainly used to get quick access to receive
summarized reports from various hierarchical or functional levels i.e. human resources,
accounting, finance, marketing and so on.
Office automation system (OAS): As name implies, it automates business functioning and
ensure smooth flow of regular corporate working by implementation at all the levels. Moreover,
it will provide an assistance to the Blackfriars restaurant to eliminate bottleneck and helps in
successful surveillance.
4.2 Preparation of a project plan for an activity and determine the critical path
Gantt chart: In project management, it is the well-popular tool that shows various
activities also called tasks or events against the time period decided for the completion of each
one (Church, Schmidt and Smedley, 2016). It allows project planners to determine various
activities (sub-activities), beginning and ending dates, duration, association with the other events,
overlapping and the starting and completion date of entire project.
Task Name Duration Start Finish Predecessor
s Total Slack
Planning restaurant 15 days Thu 4/6/17 Wed 4/26/17 0 days
Finding suitable rental
sites for setting a
restaurant
20 days Thu 4/27/17 Wed 5/24/17 1 0 days
15

Design layout 12 days Thu 5/25/17 Fri 6/9/17 1,2 0 days
Hiring human capital 8 days Mon 6/12/17 Wed 6/21/17 3 10 days
Implementing the plan 18 days Mon 6/12/17 Wed 7/5/17 3 0 days
Staff training 10 days Thu 7/6/17 Wed 7/19/17 4,5,3 0 days
Design managerial
policies 8 days Thu 7/20/17 Mon 7/31/17 6 0 days
Documentations 12 days Tue 8/1/17 Wed 8/16/17 6,5,7 0 days
Initiating the regular
activities 20 days Thu 8/17/17 Wed 9/13/17 7,8 0 days
Monitoring,
supervision and
controlling
10 days Thu 9/14/17 Wed 9/27/17 9 0 days
Taking remedial
actions for performance
improvement
3 days Thu 9/28/17 Mon 10/2/17 10 0 days
Gantt chart:
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Network diagram:
Critical path: It showcases the sequential stages to determine the minimum required time
duration for the prospective expansion plan. It is the longest path has but has zero float hence,
determines shortest or minimal possible duration in commencing new restaurant branch in
London.
CP: 1+2+3+5+6+7+8+9+10+11
= 15 + 20 + 12 + 18 + 10 + 8 + 12 + 20 + 10 + 3 days
= 128 days
Thus, minimum duration for Blackfriars restaurant to establish the new branch of
restaurant will take 128 days.
4.3 Using financial tools for the purpose of investment decisions
To commence a new restaurant branch in London, Blackfriars restaurant need huge capital
worth 190,000 GBP. Before investing such a huge capital, top-managers needs to assess the
viability of the proposed expansion plan (Block and et.al., 2016). The two most well-known
techniques of investment appraisal are net present value and internal rate of return. With the help
of both the methods, Blackfriars restaurant can assess that whether the prospective expansion
opportunity is worthwhile or not for the firm by identifying that investment will generate net
economic profit or not to the business.
Net present value: In this, the forecasted future cash inflows must be first converted into the
current period’s value using a discounting rate that indicates cost of capital and risk involved in
the proposal. Thereafter, total of it is subtracted from the beginning cost to find out NPV.
Net Present Value = Present value of Cash inflows – beginning cash outlay
Year Forecasted cash Discounted factor @ 12% Present value of cash inflows
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inflows (Up to 4 decimals)
1 50000 0.8929 44642.86
2 64000 0.7972 51020.41
3 58000 0.7118 41283.25
4 70000 0.6355 44486.27
PV of predicted cash inflows 181432.8
Less: Beginning cash outlay 190000
Net present value (NPV) = (181,432.8-190,000) -8,567.21
Interpretation: As per the derived results, it is founded that at 12% cost of capital, PV of
cash incoming is predicted to 181,432.8 which is below 190,000 GBP at a loss of 8567.21 GBP
which is a sign of enviable project and indicates proposed expansion opportunity for Blackfriars
restaurant is worthless.
Internal rate of return: It is the discounting rate which is used by the investors in project
evaluation to make project’s NPV equal to zero. Higher an investment opportunity’s IRR is
considered more desirable and attractive to undertake.
Internal rate of return formula:
= Lower discount rate + NPV at low rate/NPV at low rate-NPV at high rate *(higher lower rate)
Year
Cash
inflow
s
DF @
12%
Forecast cash inflows @
12% DF @ 10%
Forecast
cash inflows
@ 10%
Beginnin
g capital
-
19000
0 1 -190000 1 -190000
1 50000
0.892
9 44642.86 0.9091 45454.55
2 64000
0.797
2 51020.41 0.8264 52892.56
3 58000
0.711
8 41283.25 0.7513 43576.26
4 70000
0.635
5 44486.27 0.6830 47810.94
NPV -8567.21
-
265.6922341
18

= 10% + -265.69/(-265.69-(-8567.21)*(12%-10%)
= 9.94%
Interpretation: Finding the IRR, it seems clear that at 9.94% rate, NPV of the project will
be nil. The rate is below the cost of capital @ 12% reflects project is not really worthwhile,
therefore, it should be rejected.
CONCLUSION
It can be concluded from the above assignment that project of opening a new black friar
restaurant with an initial investment of 190000 GBP are assessed in order to take up the
opportunities for the future of an entity. Critical path analysis are used to determine the time
duration to complete the project which stares abut the capability of an enterprise.
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