Supply Chain Analytics

Running head: SUPPLY CHAIN ANALYTICS
Supply Chain Analytics
Name of the Student:
Name of the University:
Author’s Note:

1SUPPLY CHAIN ANALYTICS
Contents
Answer 1:.........................................................................................................................................2
Answer 1.1...................................................................................................................................3
Answer 1.2...................................................................................................................................3
Answer 2:.........................................................................................................................................3
Answer 3:.........................................................................................................................................7
Answer 4:.........................................................................................................................................9

2SUPPLY CHAIN ANALYTICS
Answer 1:
Moving Average is a technique to calculate overall trend in a data set specially used to
forecast the short term trends. It is calculated by the average of a set of data of specific time
limit. This is known as “Moving” as a new value is generated for the next time period, the oldest
data is neglected. This method removes the irregularities or fluctuations from the data. This is
also known as Simple Moving Average.
Formula to calculate the moving average can be written as
Ft= yt −1 + yt −2 ... .+ yt −n
n
WhereFt=forecast value of y ∈thetime period t .
yt =the actual vaalue of y at timet
n=the number of time periods for taking the average.
This method is applied on a given set of data to forecast the sales value for next 12-
months of Alpine Food Company. The outcomes and results are explained below.

3SUPPLY CHAIN ANALYTICS
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Y1 Y2 Y3
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
Actual Vs 12-Months Moving Average
Sales ($ 1000s) of Y1 12-months moving average
Figure 1: 12-Month moving average forecast of each month and actual sales
The above figure shows the trend line for 12-month moving average forecast for each
month of the year Y2 and Y3 and the actual values of the sales for each month of past 3 years.
The trend line is upward sloping and to show that a graph is generated in the below figure with
an additional axis.
Jan
Mar
May
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan
Mar
May
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan
Mar
May
Jul
Sep
Nov
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
290
295
300
305
310
315
320
325
12-Months of Moving average vs Actual Sales
Sales ($ 1000s) 12-months moving average
Figure 2: Actual sales and 12-Month moving average forecast of each month with additional axis