Project Analysis and Selection Decision

This assignment presents a comparative analysis of two potential investment projects: Fitz Process and Project Naushaba. The analysis utilizes Net Present Value (NPV) and Internal Rate of Return (IRR) to evaluate the profitability and feasibility of each project. The report concludes with a recommendation for which project, based on these financial metrics, is most suitable for The Game Plc.

BUSINESS
DECISION-MAKING

TABLE OF CONTENTS
INTRODUCTION...........................................................................................................................3
TASK 1............................................................................................................................................3
1.1 Creating a plan for collecting the data..............................................................................3
1.2 Survey methodology and sampling frame........................................................................4
1.3 Questionnaire for the study..............................................................................................5
TASK 2............................................................................................................................................6
2.1 Drawing the cumulative frequency graph........................................................................6
2.1 And 2.3 determining lower quartile, upper quartile, mean, median and mode................7
2.3 Assessing the value of semi inter quartile range..............................................................8
2.4 And 2.2 Drawing conclusion from the quartile, percentile and correlation coefficient value
................................................................................................................................................8
2.3 Calculating range and standard deviation.........................................................................9
TASK 3..........................................................................................................................................10
3.1 Producing graph..............................................................................................................10
..............................................................................................................................................13
3.3 Business presentation.....................................................................................................15
3.4 Formal business report...................................................................................................18
TASK 4..........................................................................................................................................19
4.1 Information processing tool............................................................................................19
4.2 Preparing the project plan with an aim to assess the critical path..................................19
TASK 5..........................................................................................................................................21
4.3 Making the decision with the help of financial tools.....................................................21
CONCLUSION..............................................................................................................................26
REFERENCES..............................................................................................................................27

INDEX OF TABLES
Table 1: Cumulative frequency graph.............................................................................................6
Table 2: Cumulative frequency graph with total mean...................................................................7
Table 3: Estimated sales and profits figure....................................................................................10
Table 4: NPV, IRR and Payback for Fitz......................................................................................21
Table 5: NPV, IRR and Payback for Naushaba.............................................................................22
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ILLUSTRATION INDEX
Illustration 1: Histogram for Imperial tobacco plc........................................................................12
Illustration 2: Scatter graph for Imperial tobacco plc....................................................................13
Illustration 3: Bar chart for the Imperial tobacco plc.....................................................................13
Illustration 4: Trend line for Imperial tobacco plc.........................................................................14
Illustration 5: Trend line for Imperial tobacco plc sales................................................................14
Illustration 6: Trend line for Imperial tobacco plc for profit.........................................................15
Illustration 7: Gantt chart...............................................................................................................17
Illustration 8: Network diagram.....................................................................................................18
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INTRODUCTION
Decision making is an important function for the success of any business as it helps or
directs firm towards the specific path (Zsambok and Klein, 2014). In addition to this, manager of
an enterprise has to take number of decisions which will assist with regard to attain the goals and
objectives of corporation in an effectual way. The given report is based upon the case scenario in
which marketing research report is prepared for the Marketing Supreme Plc.
In this report, cited firm will collect data about E-Cigarette for its client which is named
as World Wide Tobacco (WWT). Here, the study will give detailed explanation regarding the
number of sources which are being used by the cited firm manager in order to gather information
about the market. Furthermore, the report will also showcase different types of techniques which
cited firm will use in order to analyse its collected data effectively.
TASK 1
1.1 Creating a plan for collecting the data
Data collection consists of number of techniques which manager of firm uses in order to
conduct its study upon the selected topic appropriately. Here, the effectiveness of the collected
data will occur when it helps in fulfilling the aims and objectives of the study. However, wrong
technique of data collection will lead to hamper the result of the study. Due to this, it became
difficult for the scholar with regard to meet the aims and objectives of the study in an effectual
manner. With an aim to collect data for WWT, assistance has been taken by the marketing
Supreme Plc manager from number of primary and secondary techniques. Detailed explanation
about the same is depicted below: Primary method: It is the technique in which investigator makes efforts with regard to
collect completely new data for the study and does not take assistance from previous data
or study (Primary method, 2016). Here, questionnaire has been prepared for the
customers in order to gather their views and opinions regarding the product such as E-
cigarette. Furthermore, with the help of given tool, information about the consumption
pattern of customers has also being assessed. This data obtained through analysis would
help firm in preparing an effective production strategy for the given tobacco product.
 Secondary method: It is the technique, which is used by researcher with an aim to create
the base of its study. Thus, in the given method, scholar will analyse data, which is being
conducted by other researcher in the same topic or problem. With respect to the given
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scenario, secondary data has been gathered through the help of methods such as online
sources, journals and books (Winston and Goldberg, 2004). Deriving through the given
means, information about the respective competitors of WWT has been assembled. Thus,
here on the basis of assessed competitor’s tactic, an effective decision can be taken by the
manager of cited firm with regard to the product such as E-Cigarette. Concerning from
the varied secondary sources, it is assessed that Imperial Tobacco Group plc, Cloupor and
AW are the main competitors of cited firm. These competitors have major share in
market (Bryman and Bell, 2015).
1.2 Survey methodology and sampling frame
Survey methodology: depicts about the process of studying collected data for the given study.
Here, survey will be conducted by the Marketing Supreme PLC manager in which information
about the tastes and preferences of respective buyers will be gathered regarding the products.
Here, in order to conduct survey, questionnaire has been prepared which consists variety of close
ended questions. By framing such type of questions, exact information regarding the given
product will be collected (Hahs-Vaughn and Lomax, 2013).
Sampling frame
It seems difficult for the researcher to conduct its study upon the whole population of
respective market. Owing to this reason need of collecting sample for the study is being arisen in
front of scholar. Thus, with an aim to collect sample for the study, researcher has chosen random
sampling method. Selected method is effective as it gives equal opportunity to each member in
population for being selected in the sample. With the use of this method, sample of 60 customers
has been selected for WWT product.
Data validity
In order to ensure the validity of collected data, efforts will be taken by manager of
organization to gather data from reliable and authenticate sources. Moreover, researcher will
keep assembling data in safe and secure place for the purpose to comply with the ethical aspect.
1.3 Questionnaire for the study
Name:
Age:
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Gender:
Contact No.
Email Id:
1. Which type of tobacco product you buy so often?
 Cigar and cigarettes
 Chewing gum (Smokeless product)
 Other (Please specify)
2. How frequently do you use tobacco product?
 Daily
 Weekly
 Once in month
 Twice in month
3. Please specify your monthly income?
 Less than 20000£
 20000£ to 40000£
 More than 40000£
4. How much do you spend on tobacco products?
 Less than 100£
 100£ to 200£
 More than 200£
5. From where do you purchase cigarettes?
 Local shop
 Supermarket
 Others
6. Do you believe that E-Cigarette is effective and satisfies your requirement?
 Yes
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 No
7. Are you satisfied with the prices charged upon E-Cigarette
 Yes
 No
8. Do you consume it in future also?
 Yes
 No
TASK 2
Following tables are prepared with an aim to assess the age ranges which firm will target
for the new generation mobile phone.
2.1 Drawing the cumulative frequency graph
Age group
Mid Value
(Lower limit + Upper limit/ 2) Population (F) Cumulative frequency (CF)
Under 10 5 9 9
10-20 15 8 17
20-30 25 7 24
30-40 35 7 31
40-50 45 7 38
50-60 55 7 45
60-70 65 5 50
70-80 75 3 53
80-100 90 1 54
54
Table 1: Cumulative frequency graph
2.1 And 2.3 determining lower quartile, upper quartile, mean, median and mode
Age group Mid Value (X) Population (F)
Cumulative
frequency
FX (F value multiply
with X value)
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0-10 5 9 9 45
10-20 15 8 17 120
20-30 25 7 24 175
30-40 35 7 31 245
40-50 45 7 38 315
50-60 55 7 45 385
60-70 65 5 50 325
70-80 75 3 53 225
80-100 90 1 54 90
54 1925
Table 2: Cumulative frequency graph with total mean
 Mean: It is the average of data and calculated by dividing sum total of all values with the
total numbers. With respect to the given scenario, mean value assessed is of 35.64. This is
calculated in the following manner:
1925/54 =35.64
 Median: It denotes the mid value of range of series. It will be calculated with the help of
given formula:
Lower limit + [(N/2)-Cumulative frequency/F]*class interval
30 + [(54/2) – 24/7]*10
= 30 + (27-24)/7*10
= 30 + 30/7 = 34.28
 Mode: It is the type of value which frequently occurs in the specified data series.
Lower limit +
= 0 + [(9-0)/ (2*9-0-8)]*10
= 0 + (9/11)*10 = 8.18
 Lower quartile (Q1): It is being considered as the measure of dispersion of series and
depicts 25% of value in the specified series. With regard to the given case, lower quartile
is as follow:
Q1 = Lower limit + [(N/4 – C)/F] * I
= 10 + [(54/4 – 9)/8] * 10
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= 15.625
 Upper quartile (Q3): In comparison to Q1, this depicts 75% of the data series. It is
calculated as below:
Q3 = Lower limit + [3*N/4 – C)/F] *I
= 50 + [(3*54/4 – 38)/7*10
= 50 + [(40.5 – 38)/7] * 10
= 50 + 25/7
= 53.57
2.3 Assessing the value of semi inter quartile range
Semi-interquartile range occurs when difference of upper and lower quartile values are
divided by 2. This method is used with an aim to assess the variability between the quartile.
(Upper quartile – lower quartile/2)
= (53.57 – 15.625)/2
= 18.9725
2.4 And 2.2 Drawing conclusion from the quartile, percentile and correlation coefficient value
Here, quartile and percentile are statistical tools which are used with an aim to assess the
growth rate of data. Former depicts 25% of the data series. However, the quartile is of four types
and each represents specific percentage of data series. It consists of Q1, Q2, Q3 and Q4.
Nevertheless, latter is the value which depicts percentage position in the range of data. For
example, 25 and 75 percentiles indicate such value which comes under the series of 75 and 25
percentage. In addition to this, Q3, 50th percentile and median are seen as the equal pace. This
means they entail 50% of the given value. With regard to the given scenario, following quartile
and percentile is depicted:
 Q1 and 25th percentile =15.625
 Q4 and 75th percentile = 53.57.
Correlation and coefficient are other methods which entails the relationship existing
between two variables (Upton and et.al., 2015). In accordance, this technique is used with an aim
to check inter dependency between two variables. Here, positive correlation means that increase
and decrease in the one variable will lead to cause same kind of impact upon other. However,
negative correlation is just opposite to positive one. For example, increment in the sales of firm
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will lead to cause negative impact upon the other aspect of enterprise. But, presence of zero
correlation indicates that the data are not related with each other. Thus, Imperial tobacco group
can use this method with an aim to assess the interrelationship between two variables.
Recommendation:
Considering the different calculation that been above, it is advised that company must use
statistical tools in order to take effective decision. Through this, company can assess the critical
factors based on which effective decisions can be incorporate. In addition to it, tools like
percentile and quartile can be used for the purpose of segregation by the company (Hahs-Vaughn
and Lomax, 2013). Moreover, correlation and coefficient can be used for determining new set of
strategies.
2.3 Calculating range and standard deviation
Age group Mid Value Population (F) Mid value^2 M.V.^2*f
0-10 5 9 25 225
10-20 15 8 225 1800
20-30 25 7 625 4375
30-40 35 7 1225 8575
40-50 45 7 2025 14175
50-60 55 7 3025 21175
60-70 65 5 4225 21125
70-80 75 3 5625 16875
80-90 90 1 8100 8100
54 25100 96425
Table 2: Table for standard deviation and range
Standard deviation is the technique which is used to assess that dispersion existing
between the set of data or value. With specific reference to the given case, it is depicted below:
Standard deviation =
= square root of (96425/54) – (35.64^2)
= Square root of (1785.65 – 1270.65)
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= Sq. root of 515
= 22.69
Range occurs when the greatest value in the series is divided with the lowest one. It is
enumerated below:
Highest class interval – lowest class interval
= 100 – 0
= 100
TASK 3
3.1 Producing graph
There are numbers of ways identified wherein manager of firm can use graphs with an
aim to represent its sales, revenue and other data in an effective manner. In accordance with the
given context, last ten years sales and profit figure for Imperial tobacco group is represented
below:
Year Sales Profits
2005 3050 250
2006 3100 280
2007 3400 350
2008 4000 390
2009 4400 450
2010 5000 500
2011 5300 525
2012 5400 570
2013 5550 600
2014 5600 650
Table 3: Estimated sales and profits figure
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2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
Scatter graph
sales
Illustration 1: Scatter graph for Imperial tobacco plc
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
Histogram
sales
Illustration 1: Histogram for Imperial tobacco plc

Interpretation: It can be interpreted from the above graphs that significant increment is being
assessed in the sales of cited company indicating that the product that is produced by the cited
firm is liked by majority of customers. However, from the histogram it is identified that sales
figure of the company has been increasing from 2005 to 2010 but after that it becomes stagnant
for next three years. In comparison to this, profit of company is increasing appropriately but at
very slower pace.
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2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000
Bar chart
Profits sales
Illustration 1: Bar chart for the Imperial tobacco plc

3.2 Creating a trend line
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2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
sales
sales
Illustration 1: Trend line for Imperial tobacco plc sales
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
Line
sales Profits
Illustration 1: Trend line for Imperial tobacco plc

Interpretation: Trend line depicts about the trends which are prevailing in the market with
regard to the specific goods and services. For the firm, such information in very essential as
through this way only an effective strategy will be formulated by the manager of corporation in
an effectual way. Articulating from the above given trend line, there is a significant improvement
found in the sales and profits figure of the company. Thus, the analysis entails that the popularity
of E-Cigarette will remain same in future also. Hence, the company will achieve profits through
this product in future.
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2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Profits
Profits
Illustration 1: Trend line for Imperial tobacco plc for profit

3.3 Business presentation
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3.4 Formal business report
Following formal business report is prepared with regard to the selected product:
To,
Director
Marketing Supreme plc
Introduction
The given report will impart information about WWT company for its E-cigarette product.
Method
Here, in order to assemble the information concerning the given product data has been collected
by the manager from number of primary and secondary sources. Former has been collected
with the help of questionnaire and latter has been assembled with the help of methods such as
books, journals and online article.
Findings
It is found out from the trend line that the product such as E-cigarette is highly in demand. This
indicates that in future, firm has full probability of escalating its sales by selling such type of
products.
Conclusion
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Thus, it can be concluded that the launch of this product will prove beneficial to the company.
TASK 4
4.1 Information processing tool
Management information system acronym as MIS is being used by the manager of firm
with an aim to store the company data in a computer database. The method is effective as it
provides opportunity to the manager to get any kind of information at any point of time. In
addition to this, the MIS stores the company's information about the sales, profit and level of
inventory (Solomon and et.al., 2014). Hereby, it gives opportunity to the manager concerning an
effective decision about the enterprise in an effectual way. Furthermore, by using given
technique manager of firm can maintain or enhance the satisfaction level of its buyers. This
usually hinders when they will not receive their ordered good within the given specified time
limit. Such type of condition arises when firm is unable to meet the demand of its buyers due to
unavailability of sufficient stock or raw material. In addition to this, the given technique also
provides assistance to the firm monitor the marketing operation of enterprise by analyzing the
data of profits and sales. For example, if it has been assessed by the manager that its profits has
improved significantly during the period of time then in the given circumstance a conclusion is
drawn by the employer that its marketing operations are going in the right direction. So, MIS in
very important for an organization (Zikmund and et.al., 2012).
4.2 Preparing the project plan with an aim to assess the critical path
Activity Duration in weeks Predecessor activity
A replace windows in lounges' 5
B Rewire 4
C replaster walls of lounges 2 A
D Fit flights in lounges 1 B
E Decorate bedrooms 5 B
F Install plumbing 5 B
G Decorate lounges' 4 C, D
H Decorate kitchens 3 F
I Decorate Bathrooms 2 F
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Above given figure depicts the activities which manager of firm will follow while doing
the project of renovating a block of flats. Here, on the basis of given data Gantt chart and
network diagram has been prepared:
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Illustration 1: Gantt chart
Illustration 1: Network diagram

Planning project by identifying critical path
Illustration 1: Network Diagram with critical path
It can be interpreted from the above figure that activities such as B, H and F are being counted
under the critical path. Thus, when calculating the time duration associated with the given
activities at that time, it can be stated that the project will be completed within 12 weeks (4 + 5+
3). Hence, with an aim to complete the above project within specified duration project manager
has to set some specific deadline which needs to be accomplished by the respective personal.
TASK 5
4.3 Making the decision with the help of financial tools
There is number of investment appraisal techniques identified which could be used by
Play Game Plc in order to make decision of investment in one specific project. The detailed
explanation about the same is depicted in below:
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 IRR (Internal rate of return): It is rate at which NPV value of all cash flow from the
project equals zero (Ferrell and Fraedrich, 2014).
Fitz in £ Naushaba in £
Initial investment -40000 -50000
Year 1 16000 17000
Year 2 16000 17000
Year 3 16000 17000
Year 4 12000 17000
Calculation of NPV of Both Projects
It is referred as most appropriate method that aids in assessing the present value of given
proposal. This is been done by considering the time value of money and this is one of the key
advantage of this approach. Here, new cash inflow is add up and amount attained from it is
deducted from initial investment. This occurs when discounted cash inflow is subtracted from the
discounted outflow. Positive NPV denotes that project is feasible and firm can allocate funds on
it. If both projects are having positive NPV, then project that gives higher NPV are selected. In
the given case, 16% value is given as the discount rate. Here, NPV which has positive and
greater value will be selected by the manager.
Inflow PV factor (16%) Net inflow
Year 1 £ 16000 0.8620689655 £ 13793.1
Year 2 £ 16000 0.7431629013 £ 11890.6
Year 3 £ 16000 0.6406576735 £ 10250.52
Year 4 £ 12000 0.5522910979 £ 6627.49
Total inflow £ 42561.72
Less: Outflow £ -40000
Net present value
of the project £ 2561.72
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Table 4: NPV OF Project Fitz
Inflow PV factor (16%) Net inflow
Year 1 £ 17000 0.8620689655 £ 14655.17
Year 2 £ 17000 0.7431629013 £ 12633.76
Year 3 £ 17000 0.6406576735 £ 10891.18
Year 4 £ 17000 0.5522910979 £ 9388.94
Total inflow £ 47569.07
Less: Outflow £ -50000
Net present value
of the project £ 2431
Table 5: NPV of project Naushaba
On the basis of NPV calculation, it is evident that Fitz has higher NPV than that of
Naushaba.
Payback Period
It depicts about the time period in which the investment being made by the firm will be
recovered. Thus, here the project having a very low pay back time will be selected by the project
manager (Bazerman and Moore, 2012).
Inflow of Fitz Cumulative inflow
Initial investment -40000 -40000
Inflow of year 1 16000 -24000
Inflow of year 2 16000 -8000
Inflow of year 3 16000 8000
Inflow of year 4 12000 20000
Table 6: Cumulative cash inflow of Fitz project
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Payback Period =Last completed year +( remaining amount of investment
Inflow of Next Year )
Payback Period =2+( 8000
16000 )
Payback Period=2.5 Years
Inflow of Naushaba Cumulative inflow
Initial investment -50000 -50000
Inflow of year 1 17000 -33000
Inflow of year 2 17000 -16000
Inflow of year 3 17000 1000
Inflow of year 4 17000 18000
Table 7: Cumulative cash inflow of Naushaba project
Payback Period =Last completed year +( remaining amount of investment
Inflow of Next Year )
Payback Period =2+( 16000
17000 )
Payback Period=2.9 Years
By considering the payback period, it is evident that project Fitz is better than that of Naushaba
as it is having low payback period as compared to other available project.
IRR calculation
Project Fitz
IRR
Year Cash Inflow
0 -40000
1 16000
2 16000
3 16000
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4 12000
IRR 19%
Project Naushaba
Year Cash Inflow
0 -50000
1 17000
2 17000
3 17000
4 17000
IRR 14%
Explanation selection for project
To,
The Director
Supreme PLC
For the purpose of assessing the feasibility of given project, NPV and payback
period has been used by the researcher. From the above calculation it is recommended that
among two given project, managers of The Game Plc should allocate resources in Fitz
process. This is because, the NPV value identified for the given project is positive. In
addition to this, by selecting the given project cited firm can recover the cost of its
investment within 2.5 year tenure which is less than other option.
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CONCLUSION
It can be concluded from the above report that with an aim to perform significant
improvement in the sales and profits manager of corporation will have to make different type of
decisions. Thus, for the purpose to make appropriate decision, manager of firm will take help
from number of tools and techniques. Thereby, it gains the benefit in the form of profits and
sales.
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